With UK elections due to take place this year, industry coalition Sustainable Aviation has launched a manifesto that calls on the next government to accelerate policy action on the transition to net zero aviation. Specifically, it sets out how the incoming government can ensure the UK is world-leading in sustainable aviation through becoming an early mover on SAF production and supply, strengthening aerospace technology innovation and accelerating airspace modernisation. The industry group represents airlines, airports, manufacturers, air navigation service providers and fuel producers. The government has just announced £200 million ($250m) in joint public/industry investment for energy efficient aircraft while the UK CAA has selected three companies for the government funded Hydrogen Challenge Sandbox. Elsewhere, SAF startup Avioxx has raised new investment towards developing a UK SAF production plant.

Top of the industry’s wish list for the new government is action to deliver commercial UK SAF production at scale this decade with at least five UK SAF plants under construction in 2025. Sustainable Aviation’s roadmap for the UK aviation sector to reach net zero by 2050 shows that of all the mitigation measures available, SAF will have by far the largest influence on achieving the goal, accounting for 39% of 2050 total unabated emissions.

The cross-sector group calls for an accelerated timetable to deliver a government-backed SAF revenue support mechanism through the introduction of primary legislation in the early months of the new parliament. This would be a catalyst to establish a pipeline of investment for SAF production of second-generation advanced SAF ahead of power-to-liquid SAF in the medium to long term, it says. To ensure aviation has a fair share of sustainable feedstocks for second-generation SAF, regulations should be amended to ensure SAF is prioritised as an energy recovery pathway for waste, it recommends.

The industry manifesto also calls for government support for long-term R&D on aerospace innovation to provide the UK with a competitive advantage in aviation efficiency and the commercialisation of new technologies, including hydrogen. In order to meet the net zero by 2050 objective, capacity should be secured to meet the required renewable energy to produce renewable fuels for the industry. The roll-out of carbon removal and carbon capture and storage technology should also be accelerated to mitigate residual aviation carbon emissions by including carbon removals in the UK ETS scheme “and ensuring aviation’s fair share”.

Commented Matt Gorman, Chair of Sustainable Aviation and Heathrow Airport’s Sustainability Director: “Our transition to net zero flight will not only safeguard and grow aviation’s contribution to the UK economy but also create thousands of new jobs. By leveraging our existing strengths as an aviation nation, we can lead the world in green aviation technology.”

The manifesto was launched at an event in Parliament attended by Aviation Minister Anthony Browne and the opposition Labour Party’s Shadow Minister for Industry and Decarbonisation, Sarah Jones.

The final details of the UK SAF mandate legislation, due to be in force during 2025, are expected to be published by the government very soon.

This month, the UK government announced almost £200 million of joint government and industry funding for aerospace R&D projects to support the development of energy efficient and zero-carbon aircraft technology towards the transition to net zero. This includes £40 million for a project by Marshall Group to develop zero-carbon engine technology and £96 million investment in Airbus-led projects developing more efficient wing designs.

Funding for these projects will be delivered through the Aerospace Technology Institute (ATI). It was also confirmed that the £975 million in aerospace funding over the five years from 2025, announced late last year, will be allocated to the ATI programme. The programme has facilitated over £3.6 billion of joint government and industry R&D investment to date.

Meanwhile, the UK Civil Aviation Authority has selected Cranfield Aerospace Solutions, Exeter Airport Consortium and ZeroAvia for its Hydrogen Challenge Sandbox, an initiative to increase industry and regulatory readiness for the introduction of hydrogen fuel and new technologies. The challenge was launched in November with grant-based funding of £940,000 from the Regulators’ Pioneer Fund, which is overseen by the UK’s Department for Science, Innovation and Technology, and runs for an initial period until February 2025.

Cranfield Aerospace Solutions is developing a hydrogen fuel cell drivetrain to be applied to aircraft and aims to conduct ground testing and flight trials this year. The CAA will work with the company on identifying hazards, risks and safety challenges associated with its project.

ZeroAvia, which is also developing hydrogen-electric engines and already flying a prototype system in a Dornier 228 testbed under a UK CAA Permit to Fly, will work with the regulator to identify hazards, risks and safety challenges associated with the retrofitting of a hydrogen-electric powertrain.

A study by Regional & City Airports, TUI, hydrogen technology developer ULEMCo and Cranfield University is looking at reducing the environmental impact of aircraft turnarounds at Exeter Airport. Through the challenge, Consortium members and the regulatory authority will review and provide feedback on safety cases, test plans and risk assessments, and ultimately inform the development of guidance material and regulations for the future.

“Working with the three selected companies will enable us to take a step closer towards a net zero aviation sector by supporting the industry to explore how feasible the introduction of hydrogen is and how we can make sure regulation develops with the technology and is fit for purpose,” said Tim Johnson, Director of Strategy and Policy at the UK CAA.

In other UK news, SAF developer startup Avioxx has successfully closed a pre-series A funding round led by UK travel company Trailfinders. The undisclosed capital investment, said Avioxx, will bolster its R&D efforts and expand market reach, design and regulatory approval of a first 5,000 tonne per year SAF production plant. The company aims to deliver a full-scale 32,000 tonne-per-year plant by 2027. Its patented system, which transforms waste destined for incineration or landfill, aims to deliver SAF at price parity with fossil-based jet fuel through the incorporation of solid oxide fuel cells to the manufacturing process.

“We’ve rapidly prepared Avioxx for a pre-series A round and our partnership with Trailfinders is ideal to support the delivery of our vision,” commented CEO Chris Hancock. “Trailfinders can offer much more than capital with access to their established networks within the travel community and experience. We’re thrilled to accelerate the development of the business and delivery of our initial operational SAF plant is now much closer.”

Further rounds of funding will be announced later in the year for the development and construction phase of the initial plant planned for the northwest of the UK.

Photo: Heathrow Airport

Christopher Surgenor

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As the UK pursues its ‘Jet Zero’ target of net zero emissions from its aviation sector by 2050, a raft of new initiatives by government and industry have taken place over the past week. To coincide with the Sustainable Skies event held at Farnborough on April 17, the eighth meeting of the Jet Zero Council, which is made up of government, industry and academic representatives, revealed an action plan for the next two years covering zero emission aircraft development and sustainable aviation fuel production. The event also saw a fly-past by an RAF Airbus A330 partly powered by SAF that had undertaken a training air-to-air refuelling exercise over the North Sea. The government also published an independent report on developing a UK SAF industry, and UK industry group Sustainable Aviation unveiled an updated version of its Net Zero Carbon Road-Map. Meanwhile, LanzaTech has revealed plans by its UK subsidiary for Wales’ first SAF production plant and low-cost airline Wizz Air has announced an investment in UK sewage-to-SAF company Firefly.

The Jet Zero Council, which is jointly chaired by the government’s Transport Secretary and Energy Security and Net Zero Secretary, adopted its two-year plan with actions to speed up the design, manufacture and rollout of zero emission aircraft and the required infrastructure at UK airports. It also sets out how the Council will help to accelerate SAF production through investment in first-of-a-kind SAF plants, supporting scientific research on a larger scale and help to drive down production costs. The Council meeting also agreed to set up a group to advance knowledge and mitigation options on the non-CO2 impacts of aviation.

“This government is a determined partner to the aviation industry – helping accelerate new technology and fuels, modernise their operations and work internationally to remove barriers to progress,” commented Transport Secretary Mark Harper. “Together, we can set aviation up for success, continue harnessing its huge social and economic benefits, and ensure it remains a core part of the UK’s sustainable economic future.”

The centrepiece of the drive to have 10% of the annual aviation jet fuel mix, roughly 1.2 million tonnes, made up of SAF by 2030 is a SAF blending mandate, on which a second government consultation recently started under a tight policy process to have the full details confirmed later this year or early 2024 and legislated by the final quarter of 2024, ready to start in 2025. By then, it is hoped that at least five commercial-scale SAF plants will be under construction. As well as the mandate, through its Advanced Fuels Fund, the government has put up grants totalling £165 million ($205m) to help first-of-a-kind projects get off the ground.

However, there is a groundswell of opinion that this will not be enough to attract the large outside investment required, and other policy instruments, such as a price stability mechanism, will be required. Last October, the Department for Transport (DfT) commissioned an independent report to be undertaken by Philip New, former CEO of the Energy Systems Catapult and BP Alternative Energy, “to help understand the conditions needed to create a viable long-term SAF industry in the UK.”

The report’s framing section asks the basic questions of whether producing SAF is a rational use of renewable energy resources, whether emerging alternative aircraft technologies could render SAF redundant or if the UK needs a material domestic SAF manufacturing base. If the answer is affirmative to these questions, the second section proposes a set of possible interventions that “would support the creation of a competitive, sustainable and enduring UK SAF industry.”

New’s findings show SAF is indeed key to aviation decarbonisation and the UK has the potential to play a leading role, particularly in the development and deployment of SAF made from waste streams, a technology close to readiness. Whilst the proposed mandate “is a very promising market shaping mechanism”, he found a consensus that it needed to be supported by other interventions to attract investment in UK supply. Key interventions with the greatest leverage, he says, would support the UK’s nascent advantage in feedstock supply and underpin revenue confidence.

“There could be a powerful synergy between standards, the mandate and a bilateral public law contract type of mechanism, for example, akin to the Contracts for Difference (CfD) scheme used in the renewable power sector,” he says. “There is potential for this to be underwritten by industry, not government.”

His report concludes: “With the imaginative application of market-shaping levers, the UK’s concentration of developers with potential projects, remarkable cross-sectoral commitment, legacy strengths in aviation technology and fuels infrastructure, and potential strengths in feedstock access, financing could be leveraged to build a SAF industry with only a limited call on public finances. Such an industry would create thousands of green jobs and support fuel supply security.”

In its response to the report, the DfT says: “The government will continue to consider whether additional support is required alongside delivery of our existing commitments on the Advanced Fuels Fund and SAF mandate. There are a number of options which could be considered to help address the revenue certainty barrier for SAF plants in the UK. Any further support will be tested for deliverability, investability, affordability and simplicity.

“One option to provide revenue certainty could be the private law contract mechanism recommended in the report, though this type of scheme has never been implemented in parallel to a mandate before in the UK, or globally. The government must therefore consider how any potential support mechanism would interact with the SAF mandate and other incentive mechanisms such as the UK ETS, ensuring that it operates successfully in tandem and avoids unintended consequences. Furthermore, designing and implementing a mechanism such as a private law contract is likely to be complex and take time to implement, particularly a bespoke CfD scheme.

“We will work together with industry through the Jet Zero Council to consider the best way to support the aviation industry to decarbonise, including considering options for additional revenue certainty for a UK SAF industry to be provided via an industry-funded intervention. If required, following further engagement, we will launch a formal government consultation this summer.”

To coincide with the Council meeting and the Sustainable Skies World Summit 2023 event, which attracted 7 the Royal Air Force flew its Airbus A330 Voyager air-to-air refuelling tanker, which also operates as a VIP passenger and freight aircraft, in a round-trip from its Brize Norton base. Carrying a 43% blend of SAF in both engines, the aircraft performed an air-to-air refuel over the North Sea before a fly-over of the Farnborough Airport runway. The 50 tonnes of SAF used for the flight was sourced and funded by International Airlines Group and supplied by Air bp.

New industry net zero roadmap

The meeting also saw the launch of the UK cross-industry group Sustainable Aviation’s Net Zero Carbon Road-Map, which updates previous versions published in 2020 and 2021.

“This is a critical decade where aviation must prove it will decarbonise. Our updated roadmap shows that we have a clear, credible path to take carbon out of flying,” commented Matt Gorman, Chair, Sustainable Aviation. “Through a combination of sustainable aviation fuel, more efficient aircraft and airspace, zero emission planes and carbon removals, we can protect the huge benefits of aviation for future generations without the carbon cost.”

However, he said, decarbonisation would happen faster and create more jobs and investment with the right government policy support.

“The US and Europe are surging forwards in the race to create new industries in sustainable aviation fuels and technology. The UK has all the natural advantages to be able to join them, but we need to move quickly. An agreed mandate for SAF as soon as possible and a price support mechanism – building on Philip New’s independent report – are key policy areas where we can act now to gain a share of the huge prize of making Britain the natural home of net zero aviation.”

The industry group calls on the government to deliver commercial UK SAF production at scale this decade and the commitment on the five plants being under construction by 2025 by providing an industry-funded price stability mechanism alongside the mandate, and prioritising access to UK sustainable feedstocks.

It also asks for the acceleration of the UK airspace modernisation programme, with completion by the end of the decade, and investment by government in zero carbon emission flight technology through increased matched funding to the Aerospace Technology Institute programme. It also calls for residual aviation carbon emissions to be addressed by accelerating the rollout of carbon removals, including them in the UK ETS “and ensuring aviation’s fair share”.

The roadmap shows the industry plans to reduce its carbon emissions by nearly 70 million tonnes to net zero by 2050 (see below), compared with a scenario of growth at today’s efficiency, broken down as follows:

• 9.6 MtCO2 saving due to decarbonisation cost impact on demand;
• 2.5 MtCO2 saving from better air traffic management and operating procedures;
• 9.5 MtCO2 saving from the introduction of known and new, more efficient aircraft;
• 10.6 MtCO2 saving from the introduction of future, more efficient types including electric and hydrogen aircraft;
• 26.4 MtCO2 saving from sustainable aviation fuels; and
• 8.8 MtCO2 saving from permanent carbon removals.

“With these actions, the UK will be able to accommodate significant growth in passengers through to 2050 whilst reducing emission levels from just under 40 million tonnes of CO2 per year down to zero,” says the roadmap report, which adds that a full and detailed technical report on the Road-Map will be published later this year and further work will be carried out during the year on non-CO2 impacts.

Accompanying the Road-Map is a Sustainable Aviation-commissioned report by consultants ICF called ‘Roadmap for the development of the UK SAF industry’. It says 1.2 million tonnes (MT) of SAF will be required in 2030 to meet the government ambition, increasing to 7.0 MT by 2050 to achieve net zero in a central case with 75% of residual carbon addressed through SAF. Announced SAF capacity in the UK is around 0.6 MT, so at least 0.6 MT remains to be met by unannounced capacity or imports, although relying on imports will be challenging, it says, with a global shortfall in announced capacity compared to targets of almost 4 Mt of SAF by 2030, equal to over three times the UK’s projected 2030 demand.

The analysis shows the UK has sufficient feedstock – biological and other – to fully decarbonise the aviation sector. In the central estimate, the roadmap conservatively estimates feedstock availability for 3.5 MT of SAF from waste and advanced feedstocks, and 1.9 MT from renewable electricity.

However, utilising UK feedstock requires new conversion technologies to be commercialised. The HEFA pathway dominates current SAF production but the waste fats and oils this approach requires are limited in their availability, and to achieve the necessary growth, technologies such as Fischer-Tropsch, alcohol-to-jet and others must be commercialised, says the roadmap report.

“These technologies hold great promise but will not be feasible without additional support,” it comments. “The high capital costs, uncertain revenue and complex technologies prevent investments until the level, type and longevity of policy support is known and sufficient. The Advanced Fuel Fund (AFF) has set the groundwork but additional support is urgently needed. Time is running short to get these complex facilities built and commissioned by 2030.”

New UK SAF production plans

One beneficiary of the AFF is LanzaTech UK’s Dragon project, which was awarded £25 million ($31m) last December in the first round of the fund to aid development of a commercial-scale plant in Port Talbot, Wales, that will convert steel mill off-gases into ethanol and then use LanzaJet’s alcohol-to-jet (AtJ) technology to produce SAF.

LanzaTech UK, a subsidiary of LanzaTech Global Inc, has now announced further plans for the project, which include seeking planning permission for the AtJ plant in the South Wales industrial heartland that would produce around 100 million litres of SAF per year, enough to supply around 1% of the UK’s jet fuel needs. The plans have been developed in consultation with Neath Port Talbot Council, Natural Resources Wales, Associated British Ports and the Welsh government. Subject to planning permission, which will be applied for later this year, construction of the plant is expected to begin in 2025, with production starting in 2026/7.

To produce ethanol for the plant, a second facility is planned that uses a naturally occurring organism that transforms greenhouse gases to ethanol as part of its natural lifecycle. The details of this gas fermentation facility would be progressed through a separate planning application when the location has been identified and confirmed, said the company.

“LanzaTech is thrilled to announce its plans to transform derelict land in Port Talbot into the site for Wales’ first sustainable aviation fuel production,” commented LanzaTech UK’s Managing Director, Jim Woodger. “The rich industrial heritage of the region will be maintained through innovative technologies like these that transform industrial waste gases into valuable products and create long-term, skilled jobs.”

LanzaTech said it would be sharing further details of its plans for the AtJ facility in the coming months and is seeking feedback from the local community on Project Dragon through a newly-launched website.

Meanwhile, fast-growing European low-cost carrier Wizz Air has announced a £5 million ($6.2m) investment in UK biofuel company Firefly, which is developing a process that converts sewage sludge into SAF. The investment, a first of its kind for Wizz Air, will support development and certification of the SAF and the airline expects to be able to use the fuel in its UK operations from 2028 under an offtake agreement to supply up to 525,000 tonnes over 15 years that would potentially save 1.5 million tonnes of CO2e. Wizz Air says the saving is equal to the emissions of over 12,000 flights between London and its home base, Budapest.

Firefly says more than 57 million tonnes of low-value sewage sludge are produced in the UK each year, with the potential to produce 250,000 tonnes of SAF. The SAF produced by Firefly will be independently certified by standards body RSB and is projected to deliver a 90% reduction in GHG emissions compared with fossil jet fuel on a lifecycle basis.

“The investment will accelerate the commercialisation of our game-changing process,” commented James Hygate, CEO of Firefly Green Fuels. “The feedstock, sewage sludge, is available in vast quantities globally and we can put it to a truly beneficial use, reducing the use of fossil fuels in the hardest to decarbonise areas.”

Firefly’s technology originated in the laboratories of Green Fuels, founded in 2003 and awarded a Royal Warrant in 2013. The current SAF project encompasses engineering design and construction of a demonstrator plant capable of generating the quantities of fuel to allow ASTM qualification. This in turn, said the company, would lead to a first-of-its-kind commercial refinery and rollout to several UK locations where airports, pipeline terminals and wastewater treatment works are in close proximity.

Photo: Refuelling of the RAF’s Voyager Airbus A330 with a SAF blend supplied by IAG and Air bp

Christopher Surgenor

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A report by low carbon energy consultants Element Energy (EE) analysing the UK government’s ‘Jet Zero’ strategy to hit net zero aviation emissions by 2050, with interim reduction targets for the 2030s, concludes the scenarios are over-optimistic. The report, commissioned by UK campaign group the Aviation Environment Federation, concludes acting early by halting airport capacity growth along with implementing other demand reduction measures pose a far less risky approach to reaching the targets. EE estimates the aviation sector will need to cut emissions faster and deeper in the near term than the government is currently projecting. The government’s plans overestimate the likely improvements in operations, technology and alternative fuels, along with out-of-sector solutions such as engineered GHG removals, and are unlikely to be developed at the speed and scale necessary, it argues. AEF, meanwhile, has joined with other NGOs in calling on the government to withdraw its policy support for UK airport expansion until aviation emissions start falling and wider emissions are “substantially below” a 1.5°C-compliant trajectory.

Despite aviation demand – in terms of UK terminal passengers – being forecast to increase by over 70% in the latest government assumptions between 2018 and 2050 under its High Ambition scenario, aviation is expected to be one of only two sectors (the other being agriculture) still to have residual emissions in 2050, with very high-cost carbon removals required to mitigate this. As laid out in its Jet Zero further technical consultation in March 2022, possible trajectories by the UK Department for Transport (DfT) show in-sector CO2e emissions of 36Mt in 2030, 28Mt in 2040 and 15Mt in 2050, or net CO2e emissions of 24-29Mt in 2030, 12-17Mt in 2040 and 0Mt in 2050. The latest government statistics show international aviation emissions in pre-pandemic 2019 amounted to 37MtCO2e, which have more than doubled since 1990, with a further 1.5MtCO2e from domestic flights.

As part of its net zero by 2050 commitment, the UK aviation industry last year announced interim decarbonisation targets of a net reduction in emissions by “at least” 15% by 2030, relative to 2019, and a 40% net reduction by 2040 as, said its Sustainable Aviation cross-sector alliance, “with the pace of decarbonisation ramping up as game-changing sustainable aviation fuels, permanent carbon removal, and new low and zero-carbon technologies – such as electric and hydrogen-powered aircraft – become mainstream in the 2030s.”

However, the report by Element Energy says the High Ambition scenario “is over-reliant on emerging high-risk technologies and uncertain policy in the forecasting of the emission abatements in 2035.” Key risk factors, it says, include a slow-down in aerospace R&D spend post-Covid that makes it unlikely efficiency improvements will achieve a step-change growth of 2.0% annually from 1.5% historic levels. It is also pessimistic about the higher levels of SAF demand required by 2035 to meet the High Ambition scenario and questions as misleading the 100% emissions savings assumed from SAF. In addition, it criticises the exclusion of aviation non-CO2 effects as substantially underestimating aviation’s warming impact.

It also says the scenario sees a substantial emissions abatement in 2050 relying on CORSIA carbon pricing on long-haul flights reaching ETS levels, which it believes is unlikely. CORSIA, ICAO’s global carbon offsetting scheme for international aviation, is currently designed to end in 2035.

“Overall, it is unclear how DfT plans to deliver these high rates of technological improvements, SAF uptake and aircraft efficiencies,” says the report. “Expanding carbon pricing, with EE estimations suggesting that only about 17% of total aviation emissions are currently priced, would also be essential to support the rapid uptake of new technologies by airlines but would rely on breakthroughs at ICAO in terms of the level of ambition in CORSIA and future arrangements for a market-based measure after 2035.”

EE says relying on greenhouse gas removals is also risky and argues “they should only be deployed once both technological and behaviour change options to reduce emissions have been exhausted.”

It suggests demand management policies could take several forms, including reducing passenger demand for flying through carbon pricing, an air miles or frequent flyer levy, applying VAT or reforms to Air Passenger Duty, and restricting the availability of flights through management of airport capacity. Additional non-financial behaviour change interventions could include improved marketing of domestic tourism opportunities and consumer information about the CO2 impacts of flights.

“Constraining demand now through airport capacity is far easier and more reliable than allowing capacity and demand to grow and then rapidly trying to reduce demand in the future through pricing mechanisms,” says EE. “We conclude that there should be no airport expansion until and unless it is clear that both in-sector (aircraft technology) and out-of-sector (carbon removal) emissions reductions are on track to meet a fair emissions reduction for 2035 and beyond.”

Commenting on the findings, Cait Hewitt, Policy Director at the Aviation Environment Federation, said: “The government’s plan is to sit back and allow both airports and emissions to grow in the short term while hoping for future technologies and fuels to save the day. This new report gives a damning appraisal of the level of risk in every aspect of the current approach to aviation emissions and highlights the need for action now, including ruling out airport expansion and limiting demand, to ensure aviation makes a fair contribution to cutting emissions by 2035 and is on a pathway to net zero by 2050.”

On the back of the report, AEF and six other environmental NGOS – AirportWatch, Friends of the Earth, Green Alliance, Greenpeace, Possible and Transport & Environment – have written an open letter to Aviation Minister Robert Court that calls on the government to withdraw its support for airport expansion in the UK. The letter also expresses concern over the assumptions the government’s Jet Zero draft strategy makes on increases in sustainable fuels and carbon removals occurring after 2030, “but with no clear policy plan to ensure they are delivered.”

Photo: Heathrow Airport

The UK government has opened a public consultation on an action plan for the UK aviation sector to reach its net zero emissions by 2050 target, which it calls ‘Jet Zero’. Its draft strategy relies on a combination of five different measures: making airspace system efficiencies, building a sustainable aviation fuels (SAF) industry, developing zero emission aircraft technology, using cost-effective market-based measures and working to influence the behaviour of air travellers. Decarbonising will not be easy, acknowledges the government, and aviation is expected to be one of the few residual emitting sectors in 2050. As many of the technologies are in their infancy and need time to develop, it says the route to net zero will require flexibility over the pathway with multiple solutions to achieve the goal. With 96% of UK aviation emissions attributed to international flights, global agreement and UK leadership will be required, says the government, along with all parts of the sector working together. The eight-week consultation seeks views on cutting aviation CO2 emissions as well as achieving other environmental benefits such as reducing non-CO2 impacts and noise, and improving air quality.

“Decarbonising whilst retaining the connectivity we cherish and preserving our aviation sector means we must act quickly to revolutionise the technologies needed across the aviation industry: develop cleaner aircraft, produce and use more sustainable fuels, and make our airspace and airports more efficient,” write Transport Secretary Grant Shapps and Aviation Minister Robert Courts in the foreword to the consultation, which runs until 8 September 2021.

Adds the document: “The aim of our strategy is for aviation to decarbonise in a way that preserves the benefits of air travel and delivers clean growth of the UK sector by maximising the opportunities that decarbonisation can bring.”

The government believes that despite being at the early stage of development or commercialisation, sustainable aviation fuels, zero emission aircraft and GHG removal technologies “are hugely promising and exciting”. However, it says, it is too early to specify the optimal mix, and the focus had to be to accelerate all these technologies so that by 2030 a clearer picture had emerged to achieve ‘Jet Zero’. A CO2 emissions reduction trajectory for aviation will be set from 2025 to 2050 in order to monitor progress, with the strategy reviewed every five years and the approach adapted based on progress made.

Four scenarios have been modelled to achieve the UK net zero by 2050 goal based on a continuation of current trends, high ambition, high ambition with a breakthrough on SAF and high ambition with a breakthrough on zero emissions aircraft. The ‘high ambition’ scenario, which allows for uncertainty regarding the future technological mix, would see annual in-sector CO2 emissions of 39 million tonnes (Mt) in 2030, 31 Mt in 2040 and 21 Mt in 2050, with any residual emissions in 2050 offset by GHG removal methods. An alternative trajectory based on net CO2 emissions, where offsetting and removals are considered part of the target, would see CO2 emissions of 23-32 Mt in 2030, 12-19 Mt in 2040 and 0 Mt in 2050.

As an island nation dependent on overseas air travel, the government says the best way to reach the net zero goal is to work with other countries and to reduce the risk of adding regulation or cost only to the UK’s international aviation sector, which “could be challenging to implement, damage the UK’s competitiveness or risk carbon leakage.” It aims to work with other states through ICAO to secure an agreement on a long-term goal for international aviation CO2 emissions that is consistent with the Paris Agreement, negotiate for the strengthening of the ICAO CORSIA offsetting scheme and the adoption of policies that support the use of “truly” sustainable aviation fuels.

“Given the global nature of both the aviation sector and of climate change, and with global demand for aviation expected to continue to grow, the UK’s leadership in tackling aviation emissions can play a crucial role in the race to net zero,” says the government, which holds the COP26 Presidency.

Domestically, it pledges to work with a range of partners and stakeholders, including through the government/industry Jet Zero Council established in 2020, the Aerospace Technology Institute and the Aerospace Growth Partnership, as well as the Airspace Change Organising Group that is leading on modernising UK airspace. It also says it will work closely with industry through the Sustainable Aviation group.

New government proposals include that all airport operations in England should be zero emission by 2040 (scope 1 and 2) and it will seek a voluntary agreement from all airlines to avoid tankering where there is no practical reason to carry additional fuel, such as immovable turnaround times or fuel supply issues. It also welcomes views on other policy changes that might incentivise improved efficiencies, including:

• The possible use of landing fees to charge for CO2 (in addition to NOx and noise) and/or consideration of environmental performance when allocating slots at constrained airports where new slots become available;
• Making provision for air navigation service providers (ANSPs) to implement differential charging based on environmental performance within their controlled airspace;
• Identifying where changes to regulations may be needed to implement new CO2 emissions saving operations, for example formation flight; and
• Whether there are other ways to stimulate investment in greater operational efficiencies across the aviation system.

The government sees SAF playing a key role in decarbonising aviation as well as representing an industrial leadership opportunity for the nation. A UK SAF industry could generate between £700 million and £1.6 billion ($950m – $2.2bn) in gross value added (GVA) per year and create 5,000 to 11,000 green jobs, as well as the UK relying less on imported oil. The government plans five-year reviews of its SAF strategy, with a SAF-specific review by 2030, once the supportive policy framework is in place and SAF production is being scaled up in order to confirm a SAF trajectory to 2050.

SAF supply is already rewarded through the Renewable Transport Fuel Obligation and the government has provided grant funding through green fuel competitions. It reports it is continuing to develop plans for a SAF clearing house and will shortly consult on a SAF blending mandate. It is also looking at the feasibility of using SAF on UK Public Service Obligation (PSO) routes.

“We are keen to maximise the environmental and industrial opportunities that SAF offers and, in the upcoming months, we will also consider whether further innovative policy mechanisms are needed to provide greater confidence to UK SAF producers,” it adds.

“At the time of writing, there is currently no comprehensive global regulatory standard for SAF sustainability. The UK is therefore active at ICAO in negotiating for a full set of sustainability criteria for SAF that will underpin its global deployment. At the same time, we recognise that a global ambition for future SAF deployment may help to give certainty to the global industry and avoid some of the challenges associated with states acting alone. Any such goal would need to be underpinned by strong sustainability criteria.”

The government has a strong ambition the UK develops and deploys zero emission aircraft, and has an aspiration to have zero emission routes connecting the UK by 2030.

The implementation of carbon markets and GHG removal technologies is vital to achieving Jet Zero, it says. The UK Emissions Trading Scheme that started this year, replaces the UK’s participation in the EU ETS and currently covers around a third of all UK emissions, including domestic flights, flights from the UK to the European Economic Area and flights between the UK and Gibraltar. The government claims the UK scheme is more ambitious than the EU ETS and has already reduced the cap on total emissions. It is due to consult later this year on how to align the cap with a net zero trajectory and seeks views on whether the scheme could be expanded to cover other aviation non-CO2 gases.

Even if the sector returns to an assumed pre-Covid demand trajectory, it currently believes aviation can achieve net zero without government needing to intervene directly to limit growth. It sees the industry’s need to rebuild from a lower base is likely to mean that plans for airport expansion will be slower to come forward. However, it adds: “We must ensure that any growth in aviation is compatible with our emissions reduction commitments.”

While prioritising in-sector emission reductions, “We expect the approach set out in this draft strategy could impact demand for aviation indirectly,” says the government. “Where new fuels and technologies are more expensive than their fossil-fuel equivalents, and where the cost of CO2 emissions are correctly priced into business models, we expect, as with any price rise, a moderation of demand growth.”

It also considering a potential increase to the number of distance bands as part of changes to Air Passenger Duty, “in order to align the tax more closely with our environmental objectives. Airlines ordinarily pass the cost of APD onto the passenger and therefore those passengers who fly more will pay more tax.”

Lastly, the government is keen that the ability for people to fly is preserved, yet supporting them to make sustainable, informed travel choices by providing them with better information on the climate impacts of travelling on different routes or on different airlines, which in turn, it argues, incentivises the industry to decarbonise. It reports the UK CAA is planning to consult on environmental information provisions later this year.

“We intend to work with them to explore whether mandating the provision of such information to passengers at the time of booking could enable better progress in this area,” it says. “We will also work with the CAA to ensure that any future requirements for environmental information provision does not have any unintended consequences such as distorting competition.”

The government says it will develop a final ‘Jet Zero Strategy’ later this year.

In June, the UK aviation industry, through the Sustainable Aviation group, set its own interim decarbonisation targets to achieve the sector’s net zero emissions by 2050 goal (see article).

Photo: London Gatwick Airport

The UK’s aviation industry has set new interim decarbonisation targets on its way to a goal of net zero emissions by 2050. The sector’s Sustainable Aviation group, with members from airlines, airports, manufacturers and air navigation service providers, has announced a minimum overall 15% reduction in net emissions by 2030 and 40% by 2040 relative to 2019. The industry estimates gross emissions from UK aviation totalled 37.4 million tonnes (Mt) in 2019 but reduced to a net 31.4 Mt through market-based measures such as the EU Emissions Trading System (EU ETS). UK aviation emissions fell to around 9.1 Mt in 2020 as a result of Covid but a traffic rebound is expected to see gross emissions from unabated traffic growth accelerate past 2019 levels by 2024 to reach 41.5 Mt by 2030. In addition to in-sector technology, sustainable fuel and operational efficiency developments, reaching the 2030 and 2040 targets will rely heavily on the industry funding carbon removals elsewhere through emissions trading, offsetting and carbon capture.

However, the industry is confident the ramping up of “game-changing” sustainable aviation fuel production and use, along with emerging low and zero carbon technologies such as electric and hydrogen powered aircraft, will become mainstream in the 2030s and increase the pace of decarbonisation. In view of this, Sustainable Aviation has started to update the sector’s Decarbonisation Road Map, first published in 2020, which the group expects to demonstrate even faster potential to reduce emissions through technology innovation.

“UK aviation led the world last year by being the first national aviation body in the world to commit to net zero by 2050. We are now raising the bar by committing to additional interim milestones to hold ourselves accountable on this journey to ‘Jet Zero’,” said Adam Morton, Chair of Sustainable Aviation (SA).

However, decarbonising the sector is a huge challenge, with significant technology and policy barriers to be overcome this decade, acknowledges SA. It believes the UK risks falling behind other countries, such as the United States, which it says are putting in enhanced policies to support innovation and new fuel technologies.

Morton said the targets were ambitious but achievable though required “meaningful cooperation” between industry and government, together with the necessary policies and funding. SA has laid out five areas that it sees as critical to reaching the net zero goal:

1. Key policies this year to deliver a commercial UK sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) industry by providing an urgent demand signal and price support. This could deliver up to 14 UK plants generating SAF from household and industrial waste by the middle 2030s and supporting at least a 32% reduction in emissions from UK aviation by 2050.
2. A positive, long-term signal for investment in aerospace technology and the development of hybrid, electric and hydrogen-powered aircraft through increased and extended funding for the Aerospace Technology Institute.
3. The completion of airspace modernisation that would generate significant carbon savings.
4. Policies that incentivise the commercialisation of carbon removal technologies that enable carbon neutral or carbon negative aviation fuel, allowing the aviation industry to address any remaining residual emissions.
5. The UK government “to seek a more robust international commitment for aviation carbon reduction at the ICAO Assembly in 2022, ensuring emissions are reduced across the globe and not exported from the UK.”

With the right support, says SA, the major economic and social benefits of the UK’s air links to the world can be maintained and generate highly skilled green aviation jobs.

Responding to the SA interim targets, the UK’s Business Secretary, Kwasi Kwarteng, said: “Working with industry through our Jet Zero Council, we are putting the decarbonisation of the aviation sector at the centre of our plans to build back greener from the pandemic and this industry roadmap complements our vision perfectly.”

The infographic released by SA (see below) to show the milestones on the path to net zero emissions by 2050 indicates that 7.2 Mt of emissions could be saved from technology, SAF and operational efficiency innovation in 2030 to bring UK aviation emissions below the 2019 peak. However, to reach the 15% net reduction target, 9.3 Mt will have to come from offsetting, emissions trading or funding carbon removal technologies. To reach the 2040 interim target of a 40% net emissions reduction will require the UK aviation sector to fund 16.7 Mt of carbon removals.

SA’s projections – based on government traffic forecasts, Heathrow expansion after 2030 and allowing for the effect of Covid-19 – show emissions climbing to 62.2 Mt by 2050 with unabated traffic demand. This could be reduced by 37.3 Mt through SAF usage, aerospace technology innovation and operational efficiency improvements, leaving a sizeable 24.9 Mt of CO2 to be funded by out-of-sector carbon removals in order to reach the net zero target.

Prices in the European carbon markets (the EU ETS and UK ETS) have already traded this year above the €50/£50 ($60-70) per tonne mark and analysts including BloombergNEF (BNEF) are predicting the price to reach €100/tonne by 2030, which potentially leaves the industry with a hefty carbon bill.  BNEF also estimates the price would have to rise to at least €252/tonne for even the cheapest SAF to become price competitive with fossil jet fuel.

However, without a significant contribution to in-sector emission reductions from sustainable aviation fuels, Tim Alderslade, Chief Executive for trade body Airlines UK, told an ICF webinar this week that not only would it be impossible to meet the net zero commitment but demand constraints on air travel could “potentially come into the equation”.

SA is now working to publish its updated decarbonisation roadmap by the middle of next year. “We will be capturing the latest knowledge across industry on technologies like hydrogen and electric, and how far SAF will get us to our target,” Andy Jefferson, SA’s Programme Director, told GreenAir. “We will also consider why the EU and the global aviation industries are showing lower and different levels of MBMs in their Destination 2050 and Waypoint 2050 roadmaps.”

He said announcing an update to the roadmap and setting interim targets now was intended to provide an opportunity to restate the industry’s commitment to net zero and also provide confidence to government ahead of a net zero aviation consultation to take place shortly. However, he said, government needed to understand the industry had been severely hit financially by the pandemic and help would be needed in putting the right policy solutions and incentives in place to help achieve its ambitions.

Responding to the interim targets, UK-based Aviation Environment Federation said: “Unless and until airlines start paying for and delivering carbon capture technology, the only way to avoid aviation emissions is not to fly. The government’s net zero aviation consultation will need to recognise the need to go beyond technology, including measures to limit aviation demand and airport capacity. It will not be OK to allow aviation demand and emissions to grow as we come out of the pandemic in the hope that future fuels and technologies will save the day.”

Top photo: Heathrow Airport

The UK is to set in law what it describes as the world’s most ambitious climate change target and for the first time will include emissions from international aviation and shipping. In accepting the recommendation of its advisory Climate Change Committee, the UK government is pledging to reduce overall emissions by 78% by 2035 compared to 1990 levels. By incorporating the UK’s share of international aviation and shipping emissions in its newly announced sixth carbon budget, which covers the period 2033-2037, the government said the two sectors were an important part of its decarbonisation strategy that would allow for their emissions to be accounted for consistently. The UK has already committed to reduce overall emissions in 2030 by at least 68% compared to 1990 levels through its Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) under the Paris climate agreement – the highest reduction target made by a major economy to date – but it does not intend to include the UK’s share of emissions from international aviation and shipping in its NDC, in line with UN convention. The lead UK climate negotiator at the upcoming COP26 told journalists this week the UK would continue to work through ICAO and IMO to achieve emission reductions in line with Paris climate goals.

“We want to continue to raise the bar on tackling climate change, and that’s why we’re setting the most ambitious target to cut emissions in the world,” said Prime Minister Boris Johnson. “We want to see world leaders follow our lead and match our ambition in the run up to the crucial COP26 climate summit, as we will only build back greener and protect our planet if we come together to take action.”

Last November, Johnson outlined a ‘Ten point plan for a green industrial revolution’, one of which is to develop a strategy for the aviation sector to reach net zero emissions through aerospace technology and sustainable aviation fuels (SAF). This included the setting up of the government-industry Jet Zero Council. The government is planning to consult on its aviation decarbonisation strategy shortly, possibly in May, and then in 2025 hold a further consultation on a SAF mandate with a potential start date that year.

The Climate Change Committee (CCC) says the 68% reduction by 2030 commitment under the UK NDC would be 64% if international aviation (based on emissions from departing flights) and shipping were included. International emissions from both sectors totalled around 45 MtCO2e in 2019 and together with domestic emissions made up 10% (aviation 7% and shipping 3%) of overall UK emissions. Although emissions from international aviation and shipping are treated separately by the UN, points out the CCC, “they must be addressed if the temperature goal of the Paris Agreement is to be met,” it asserts. “The UK’s NDC should include clear commitments to act on emissions from international aviation and shipping, including both long-term and interim targets.”

In its 450-page advice in November to the government on its sixth budget, the Committee presented scenarios on how the aviation sector could reach net zero, based on what it describes as a recommended ‘Balanced Net Zero Pathway’. Under this pathway, it is assumed the aviation sector returns close to pre-pandemic demand levels by 2024 and thereafter emissions gradually decline to reach 23 MtCO2e per year by 2050, based on a modest 25% growth in traffic by 2050 compared to 2018 levels, rather than an unconstrained forecasted growth of 65% over the same period. Those remaining 23 MtCO2e emissions will need to be offset with GHG removals via nature-based and engineered options, says the guidance.

The CCC sees demand management playing a critical role in ensuring emissions continue to decrease, particularly while efficiencies and SAF scale up, and so this pathway is predicated on no net increase in UK airport capacity, so that any expansion is balanced by reductions in capacity elsewhere in the UK. It also assumes fuel efficiency per passenger improves at 1.4% per annum during the period, 9% of total aircraft distance in 2050 being flown by hybrid-electric aircraft and SAF contributes 25% of liquid fuel consumed in 2050, with two-thirds coming from biofuels and the remainder from synthetic jet fuels.

Sources of abatement in the CCC’s Balanced Net Zero Pathway for the aviation sector:

The CCC analysis also explores alternative pathways based on different contributions from efficiency and technology improvements, SAF take-up and passenger demand. It estimates that under the Balanced Net Zero Pathway, additional investment of around £390 million a year ($540m) in 2035 and £2,750 million ($3.8bn) a year in 2050 will be required for efficiency improvements and hybridisation. Further operational costs of using SAF, given their additional cost above fossil jet fuel, are likely to be incurred of £470 million a year in 2035 and £1,520 million a year in 2050. The costs are offset by operational and fuel efficiency savings of £1,230 million a year in 2035 and £2,750 million a year in 2050. In earlier years, efficiency gains significantly outweigh added fuel costs.

The cost of SAF priced with marginal GHG removals might add £35 to a return ticket from London to New York in 2050 under the Balanced Pathway, minus £21 of fuel savings from improved efficiency, estimates the CCC. If full decarbonisation was paid for using GHG removals to offset residual emissions, this may add a further £41, giving a net added cost of £56.

While welcoming the government’s climate ambition on the new target and stressing the UK aviation industry remained fully committed to achieving net-zero carbon emissions, the Chair of the cross-sector coalition Sustainable Aviation, Adam Morton, said significant government support was needed.

“This effort requires a strong long-term partnership with government – including through the Jet Zero Council – that boosts support for industry investment over the coming months and through the next critical decade,” he said. “This means providing the right policy support for SAF, increasing investment in R&D for new aircraft and engine technologies, including hydrogen and electric aircraft technology, and accelerating airspace modernisation.

“Aviation is a uniquely global industry that requires global solutions to avoid simply moving emissions from one country to another, with no appreciable impact on climate change. For this reason, the UK aviation industry is also pushing for a 2050 commitment to net zero emissions at next year’s ICAO Assembly.”

The inclusion of international aviation emissions in the UK carbon reduction targets was welcomed by NGOs Aviation Environment Federation (AEF) and Transport & Environment (T&E).

“Aviation’s share of national emissions has been growing steadily as other industries have begun to decarbonise and while some airlines and airports have made climate pledges, there had been no means of holding them to account for these aspirations,” said AEF, which had campaigned for the inclusion.

“This should mark the beginning of the end for fossil-fuelled aviation,” said Cait Hewitt, Deputy Director, AEF. “After many years of slipping the net when it comes to climate change, and expecting special privileges, airlines will now need to start planning for a very different future.

“Including international aviation in UK climate law gives a strong message from ministers that all sectors of the UK economy need to be on the same path towards net zero emissions. Now the government will need to make sure that’s delivered.”

AEF suggested the government should consider setting annual emissions targets for airlines, a review of policy on airport expansions, new financial measures to limit flying demand, such as an air miles tax, and measures to support staff currently employed in aviation to transition to green jobs where appropriate. Rather than focusing on carbon offsetting, it said, the industry could ramp up R&D into zero carbon energy options for aviation, such as synthetic fuels, and plan to deliver carbon capture and storage of remaining emissions.

T&E said the decision to include international aviation and shipping into the UK carbon budgets was a “very positive step towards reducing carbon pollution” from the two sectors and “closed a loophole they had been allowed to escape”.

“Properly accounting for the emissions is essential, but we now need meaningful action to control GHG releases and prevent future emissions rising above pre-pandemic levels,” said Matt Finch, T&E’s UK Policy Manager. “In the process, the UK can become a world leader in zero-emission fuels for planes and ships.”

Coinciding with the UK pledge, negotiators from the European Council and the European Parliament have reached a provisional agreement that will set into EU law the objective of a climate-neutral EU by 2050 and a collective net GHG emissions reduction target – emissions after deduction of removals – of at least 55% by 2030 compared to 1990, and an aspirational goal to strive to achieve negative emissions after 2050. They also agreed the Commission would engage with sectors of the economy that choose to prepare indicative voluntary roadmaps towards achieving the Union’s climate neutrality objective by 2050. (The European aviation industry released its Destination 2050 roadmap in February.) The provisional agreement on the climate law is subject to approval by the Council and Parliament before adoption.

Brussels-based T&E urged the EU to follow the example of the UK. “The UK is showing how to take responsibility for its climate impact. The EU should incorporate aviation and shipping in its climate law or relinquish its aspirations for climate leadership,” said Andrew Murphy, T&E Aviation Director. “If the UK, with an economy so reliant on aviation and shipping, can do this then Europe has no excuses.”

Top photo: British Airways A350 tail fin

The UK government has launched a £15 million ($21m) ‘Green Fuels, Green Skies’ competition to support early-stage development of UK sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) plants with grant funding. Specifically targeted are projects undergoing a front end engineering design (FEED) stage in their development lifecycle and will prioritise those projects closest to the development of first-of-a-kind (FOAK) commercial-scale SAF plant. The competition will also be open to projects outside this scope and will allocate up to £2 million in funding to projects at the feasibility stage of project development. The competition is part of UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson’s ‘Ten point plan for a green industrial revolution’ unveiled in November. The announcement coincides with the second meeting of the Jet Zero Council, set up by the government last year in partnership with industry and others to stimulate net-zero emissions flight by mid-century through the development of new aviation fuels and technologies. Heathrow Airport COO Emma Gilthorpe has been appointed CEO of the Council, with a brief to extend its reach with key stakeholders across the sector and drive forward aviation decarbonisation. Meanwhile, the government is to provide £5.5 million in funding towards modernisation of UK airspace.

Commenting after the Council meeting, UK Transport Secretary Grant Shapps said: “As the aviation sector emerges out of the pandemic and looks towards recovery over the coming months, we must put our environmental commitments at the centre of everything we do – so not only do we build back better, we also build back greener. That’s why we’re stepping up our work on the Council, recruiting new members and launching pioneering efforts to ensure we continue to lead the world by example and deliver on our ambitious net-zero targets.”

Added Business Secretary Kwasi Kwarteng, who co-chairs the Council with Shapps, said: “The meeting demonstrates the vital collaboration between government and industry that will make zero-emission flights a reality. Britain’s aerospace sector is at the centre of our plans to build back greener from the pandemic. We are committed to supporting its recovery and investing in green tech to take us closer to zero-carbon take-off.”

One of the objectives of the Jet Zero Council is to accelerate SAF delivery by supporting investment in FOAK SAF plants, supporting R&D of new pathways and to drive down production costs through upscaling and innovation. The ‘Green Fuels, Green Skies’ (GFGS) competition is being run by the Department for Transport (DfT) in partnership with E4tech and Ricardo Energy & Environment, who were also responsible for the Future Fuels for Freight and Flight competition that was launched in 2017 and had applications for funding from the Velocys Altalto waste-to-jet project and the LanzaJet SAF from waste-based ethanol project.

The new competition follows on from a DfT-commissioned study by E4tech and Ricardo to assess the feasibility of a grant-funded competition and the types of funding mechanisms that could help support FOAK commercial SAF plant development in the UK. The study concluded there was a pool of UK and international developers that could build such plants but technology risk, high capital costs and uncertainty on the monetary value of policy support meant there were key barriers that needed to be overcome. It found that FOAK commercial plants could cost £600-700 million ($830-$970m) to build, which required government to “think big”, with policy measures to provide sufficient revenue certainty to investors to make projects financially viable.

The study indicates a UK SAF market could generate between £700m and £1.66bn in gross value added (GVA) to the UK economy, with potentially half of this being generated from the export of IP and the provision of engineering services, and create between 5,000 and 11,000 green jobs. Replacing imported kerosene with domestically produced SAF would also increase fuel security and have a net positive impact on the UK’s balance of payments.

The competition sets a number of objectives for projects to receive financial support:

• Technology demonstration: materially progress a project towards FOAK commercial production of an eligible SAF pathway.
• Fuel production: materially develop a project with the capability to produce commercially significant volumes of SAF, including for the purposes of attaining certification.
• Commercial potential: materially develop a strategy for commercialising the technology and the products from the project, demonstrating the significant value to the UK.
• Emissions reduction: demonstrate the potential for GHG reductions of a technology pathway compared to a fossil fuel equivalent.
• Project execution: bring together a team with the necessary expertise and experience to deliver the project according to its objectives.

Application forms for the competition are available to download from the Ricardo website on March 24 and the closing date for applications is May 31. The DfT expects to announce the winners and the start of the funding period at the end of July, with the funding period for winning projects due to end on March 31, 2022.

“This funding is a positive step closer to getting a British sustainable aviation fuel industry off the ground,” commented Adam Morton, Chair of the UK cross-industry group Sustainable Aviation. “But if the UK is serious about becoming a world leader in SAF production and supply, the government must accelerate its support for this nascent industry by complementing this funding with the right policies to support the commercialisation of SAF at scale, as we have set out. With a world-leading SAF industry and innovations in electric and hydrogen aircraft, Britain can become a Jet Zero pioneer.”

Under another initiative, ‘Future Flight Challenge’, the UK government has committed £125 million ($173m) of funding over four years, matched by £175 ($243m) million from industry, to develop green flight – such as all-electric aircraft and deliveries by drones – by advancing electric and autonomous flight technologies. Project 2ZERO announced plans this week to use their £2.4 million share of this funding to demonstrate flights of six- and 19-seat hybrid-electric planes. The project will validate the use of electric and hybrid aircraft on regional routes, showing the potential to decarbonise aviation while supporting regional connectivity.

Following an independent review into UK transport connectivity, the government has said a consultation will be launched shortly on aviation tax reform that will include options to change Air Passenger Duty (APD) for domestic flights, such as reintroducing a return leg exemption or creation of a new lower domestic rate. It will also consider increasing the number of APD international distance bands as well as mandating the use of sustainable aviation fuels. As some European governments move towards closing down short domestic routes in favour of train travel, Prime Minister Johnson said he wanted to cut APD on domestic flights to support UK connectivity.

Asked by BBC Radio this week on how a cut in APD on domestic flights would square with the government’s net-zero commitment, Transport Secretary Shapps said: “We want to do both and we’ll do that, for example, by using sustainable aviation fuel mandates in future on domestic flights to remove carbon.”

The government has also announced funding of £5.5 million ($7.6m) to support modernisation of the UK airspace to reduce journey times, pollution and delays. It said the funding would aid the industry as it develops and evaluates new flight routes, and play a role in the UK CAA’s Airspace Modernisation Strategy when travel restrictions are lifted.

“As an island nation, our airspace is vital in keeping us connected to the rest of the world,” said Aviation Minister Robert Courts. “Modernising our ‘sky motorways’ could put an end to the days of circling the airport waiting for a landing slot, improving efficiency, and leading to flights that are quicker, quieter and greener than ever before.”

Responding, the UK Airport Operators Association’s Chief Executive, Karen Dee, said: “Airspace modernisation will be essential for aviation to build back better, so that a recovery of 2019 passenger levels does not come with 2019 noise impacts and carbon emissions. We look forward to working with the government and the Airspace Change Organising Group to deliver modernisation and to help achieve aviation’s net zero by 2050 commitment.”

The government says it has pledged around £7 billion ($9.7m) for the aviation sector since the start of the pandemic “while working to develop a framework for the restart of safe and sustainable international travel.”

Photo: Heathrow Airport

There should be no net expansion of UK airport capacity unless the sector is on track to sufficiently outperform its net emissions trajectory and can accommodate the additional demand, says the UK’s advisory Climate Change Committee (CCC). In a major report on recommended policies to achieve the UK’s overall net zero emissions by 2050 target, the CCC says demand management will be required to constrain UK aviation growth to 25% growth by 2050 from 2018 levels unless efficiency and sustainable aviation fuel take-up can be developed quicker than expected. The Committee recommends emissions from international aviation be included in UK carbon budgets and the net zero target by next year. The UK should also work with ICAO to set a long-term emissions goal consistent with the Paris Agreement, strengthen CORSIA and align the scheme to this goal in 2023.

The policies for aviation are set out in the Committee’s advice to government on the nation’s Sixth Carbon Budget – the legal limit for UK net GHG emissions over the 2033-37 period. This will necessitate a requirement for an overall 78% reduction in UK emissions by 2035 relative to 1990, equivalent to a 63% reduction from 2019, which it says would place the UK on a path to net zero by 2050 at the latest.

On aviation, the Committee’s report acknowledges the UK industry’s commitment through its Sustainable Aviation coalition to the net-zero goal for 2050 although this is not yet a policy goal for the government, which is due to consult in 2021 on its intended Aviation Decarbonisation Strategy.

“Higher-level strategic gaps include the lack of formal inclusion of international emissions in UK carbon budgets and the net zero target, and the need for a sector emissions trajectory to inform demand management and airport capacity policies,” points out the Committee. “Further research is also needed on non-CO2 effects and potential mitigation options.”

UK government policy has been not to include emissions from international flights in the carbon budgets pending developments with UN negotiations on ICAO’s CORSIA scheme but the Committee is strongly recommending a change. The Chairman of the CCC, Lord Deben, told journalists ahead of the publication of the report that the UN structure demanded international emissions from aviation and shipping be excluded from Nationally Determined Contributions under the Paris Agreement.

“What the Committee is saying very clearly is that the UK government must take up the cudgels in order to include the emissions from these two sectors. If you don’t include them, then you are falsifying the fact when it comes to net zero, so we need to make that change,” he said. “We’ve really got to get aviation and shipping into the system, and pretty quickly.”

Existing UK aviation policy has been focused on establishing the Jet Zero Council with an ambition for zero-emissions commercial flight, match-funding for aircraft technology development and traded certificate price support for sustainable aviation fuels (SAF) under the Renewable Transport Fuel Obligation (RTFO). Investments have also been made in a grant-funding competition for SAF production and the FlyZero aircraft technology initiative. There are also plans for a SAF clearing house to enable the UK to certify new fuels and a consultation on a SAF blending mandate for a potential start in 2025.

However, the RTFO inclusion is unlikely to drive significant development of renewable jet fuels and there is a lack of larger-scale deployment support and policy framework for these fuels, says the Committee. It advises the government to set out a policy package for supporting the near-term deployment of SAF facilities in the UK that may involve capital or loan guarantee support, and to transition to a more bespoke policy than the RTFO. A SAF blending mandate could ultimately provide more certainty to SAF plant investors than the RTFO, it believes. SAF facilities should have to install carbon capture and storage (CCS) or be built CCS-ready in order to maximise GHG savings, it adds, and SAF must meet strict sustainability standards.

The report says carbon pricing will be required to incentivise the transition to net zero although there are issues around equitable distribution of costs. Aviation fuel faces no taxes and international flights beyond EU borders are outside the scope of the EU ETS, so do not face a carbon price, it points out. The Committee noted that the recent citizens’ UK Climate Assembly favoured a frequent flyer levy to address fairness concerns.

The Committee proposes that in the long term, an economy-wide emissions trading scheme with a cap set to zero emissions would be a plausible way of balancing emissions and pricing carbon for sectors like aviation, so providing financial support for GHG emissions removals from, for example, woodland or peatland restoration, or engineered removals such as bioenergy with carbon capture and storage (BECCS).

Given expected developments in efficiency and SAF deployment, the Committee advises the government to implement a demand management policy to constrain UK aviation growth to 25% by 2050 from 2018 levels for the sector to contribute to the UK net zero goal. If efficiency and SAF develop quicker, it may be possible for demand growth to rise above 25%, provided that additional non-CO2 effects are acceptable or can be mitigated, it says.

“The government should assess its airport capacity strategy in the context of net zero and any lasting impacts on demand from Covid-19. Investments will need to be demonstrated to make economic sense in a net zero world and the transition towards it,” says the report.

“Unless faster than expected progress is made on aircraft technology and SAF deployment, such that the sector is outperforming its trajectory to net zero, current planned additional airport capacity would require capacity restrictions placed on other airports. Going forwards, there should be no net expansion of UK airport capacity unless the sector is assessed as being on track to sufficiently outperform a net emissions trajectory that is compatible with achieving net zero alongside the rest of the economy, and is able to accommodate the additional demand and still stay on track.”

Baroness Brown, Deputy Chair of the Committee, told journalists: “There is a limit on the aviation emissions we can afford so if it is crucial for our economy to have, say, more capacity in the airport system in London then that would mean reducing capacity elsewhere – it’s about no net increase in the capacity. We do assume there can be some growth in aviation and we’ve looked very carefully at the conclusions of the Climate Assembly and the assumptions we have made are closely aligned with it on issues like aviation.

“The aviation industry is hugely important to this country and we consider there will be some very important advances in technology and synthetic fuels, and we are keen that the government supports their development. As you go forward in time, the benefits from improving aircraft efficiency will also start to outweigh the costs of reducing aviation emissions. It’s not a gloomy story about aviation – there are opportunities but not for rampant growth in terms of flying, and certainly not in the short term until we have the solutions in place.”

On aviation’s non-CO2 effects, the report recommends work should be supported to reduce the scientific uncertainties and fund research into mitigation options. As a minimum goal, there should be no additional non-CO2 warming from aviation after 2050 and possibly earlier with a policy intervention.

“Alongside efforts at ICAO, the Aviation Decarbonisation Strategy and the package of domestic policies, plus parallel progress on a mechanism for deploying GHG removals in the UK, should put UK aviation emissions on track to contribute fully to meeting the Sixth Carbon Budget and the net zero target,” concludes the report.

Responding, Sustainable Aviation’s Programme Director, Andy Jefferson, commented: “We were the first national aviation group in the world to pledge to achieve net zero by 2050 in February of this year, and our members are fully committed to decarbonising aviation in line with global targets. 

“We are currently assessing potential interim targets for 2030, and plan to announce this during 2021 once we have clarity on a range of dependent factors. This includes the trajectory of the post-pandemic recovery, the next phase of the EU Emissions Trading System and the global CORSIA scheme. 

“We have a clear Road-Map for how to achieve net zero in aviation through SAF, new cleaner aircraft and modernisation of airspace. The right action from government now on SAF in particular will have a marked effect on our ability to set and achieve ambitious interim targets for decarbonisation.”

Cait Hewitt, Deputy Director of UK environmental group the Aviation Environment Federation, said: “The CCC’s advice is clear: the government needs to call time on airport expansion. Zero-carbon aviation is currently an aspiration, not a reality, and while it’s right to pursue new technologies for cutting emissions, we can’t rely on these coming through fast enough to decarbonise the sector without also reducing aviation demand.

“Our analysis shows that current and planned UK airport expansions could increase aviation CO2 emissions by nearly 9 Mt a year in 2050 compared to a situation with no expansion.

“The aviation sector has taken a huge hit from the Covid pandemic but jobs per passenger had already been falling for many years. The government now needs to sharpen its focus on how to build the zero-carbon industries – and jobs – of the future.”

Photo: Heathrow Airport

Zero emissions flight pioneer ZeroAvia has signed a Heads of Terms collaboration with Protium to develop and expand green hydrogen infrastructure for decarbonising aviation in the UK. Project developer Protium has long-term ambitions to eventually own and operate green hydrogen infrastructure across UK airports. The UK and US based ZeroAvia recently operated a first zero-emission flight from Cranfield, with a six-seater aircraft using hydrogen and atmospheric oxygen in a fuel cell system to create electricity and propel the aircraft whilst only emitting water vapour. It is initialling targeting commercial operations in 2023 with a 10-20 seat aircraft for passenger transport and package delivery. Meanwhile, research commissioned by cross-industry group Sustainable Aviation has identified seven industrial clusters in the UK that could be home to up to 14 sustainable aviation fuel facilities.

Following its flight from Cranfield University’s airfield, ZeroAvia is now planning the next and final stage of its six-seat development programme with a 250-mile zero-emission flight out of an airfield in Orkney, Scotland before the end of this year.

The programme in the UK is part-funded through the UK government’s Aerospace Technology Institute, which is supporting the HyFlyer project that aims to decarbonise medium-range small passenger aircraft by demonstrating powertrain technology to replace conventional piston engine in propeller aircraft. As well as Protium, other partners in the project include the European Marine Energy Centre (EMEC) and Intelligent Energy. The latter is optimising its high-power fuel cell technology for application in aviation while EMEC, producers of green hydrogen from renewable energy, is supplying the hydrogen required for flight testing and developing a mobile refuelling platform compatible with the plane.

ZeroAvia has joined the UK’s Jet Zero Council, a government and industry partnership launched by British Prime Minister Boris Johnson this summer to drive net-zero ambitions for the UK aviation and aerospace sector. Along with government ministers, the Council is made up of representatives from the aviation industry, investor groups and an NGO, and will be chaired by the UK’s Transport Secretary and Business Secretary. The full list of Council members has now been published by the government.

The principal aims of the body are to:

• Develop and industrialise zero-emission aviation and aerospace technologies;
• Establish UK production facilities for sustainable aviation fuels (SAF) and commercialising the industry by driving down production costs; and
• Develop a coordinated approach to the policy and regulatory framework needed to deliver net zero aviation by 2050.

“Climate change is one of the greatest challenges faced by modern society, and we know we need to go further and faster if we are to make businesses sustainable long into the future,” said Aviation Minister Robert Courts. “That’s why we’re bringing together government, business and investors to reduce emissions in the aviation sector. Through innovative technologies such as sustainable fuels, hybrid and eventually electric planes, we will build a cleaner, greener and more sustainable future for all.”

Sustainable Aviation (SA), which committed in February to achieving net-zero emissions by 2050, believes a UK SAF industry could add £2.9 billion ($3.7bn) annually to the economy, create 20,000 jobs in SAF production and export services, and deliver savings of 3.6 million tonnes of CO2 a year by 2038. The industry group is calling for £500 million ($640m) in government funding, made up of £429 million in government-backed loan guarantees for the initial first-of-its-kind SAF production facilities, £50 million in grants and development support for new SAF technologies, and £21 million to establish a UK clearing house to enable SAF testing and approval.

The SA-commissioned research undertaken by energy consultancy E4tech showed 14 SAF production facilities could be built in seven industrial clusters situated in Teesside, Humberside, North West England, South Wales, Southampton, St Fergus and Grangemouth, Scotland. Humberside is the intended location for the Altalto waste-to-jet-fuel facility proposed by Velocys and backed by British Airways and Shell, which is expected to be the first in the UK to produce SAF.

“The research shows that it is possible to deliver on the government’s Jet Zero ambition and transform aviation using readily available feedstocks, innovative technology and existing aircraft,” commented Henrik Wareborn, CEO of Velocys. “With Altalto, the Humber could fuel this transformation, cutting carbon and creating jobs in the process. As a key cluster for the development of this new domestic industry, the region has a fantastic opportunity to establish itself as the global hub for fuelling future air travel.”

Added Adam Morton, Chair of Sustainable Aviation: “Sustainable aviation fuels will be essential for the global aviation industry in a net zero world and the UK has a golden opportunity to become a world-leader by commercialising this technology at an early stage.

“There are enormous benefits in terms of jobs and growth across these clusters. By backing SAF in this way, the government can kickstart a green recovery and create high-quality and futureproof jobs for thousands of people. All of this can be delivered at the same time as slashing carbon emissions.”

Speaking at a cross-party parliamentary debate he called to discuss the work of the Jet Zero Council, Andrew Selous MP said: “We should harness our huge strength in aviation technology and engineering to find new solutions to allow us to fly without wrecking the planet.

“We also need to ensure that the United Kingdom is at the forefront of sustainable aviation, so that the high-skilled, high-wage jobs of the future are provided here. We cannot leave this to chance, as has unfortunately happened with other technologies in the past.”

Responded Aviation Minister Robert Courts: “Britain has always led the way on aviation, and we will continue to do so. There is a huge prize in sight: developing the sector that meets the challenges of the future, and we will be front and centre, capturing those first mover advantages.”

Commenting after the debate, Morton said: “The support from a broad range of MPs from right across the political landscape is testament to this crucial issue. It’s so important to see this coalition come together to back early stage sustainable aviation fuel facilities.”

The next meeting of the Jet Zero Council is due to take place at the end of this month, which Sustainable Aviation said would be an opportunity for government and industry to discuss and make progress on accelerating the development of early-stage SAF facilities.

The only environmental group represented on the Council is the Aviation Environment Federation. Its Director, Tim Johnson, said: “Some government support and incentive for sustainable aviation fuel R&D is reasonable, and happens already, but that helps to accelerate bringing a product to market. But once at market, the question is scaling up and getting it into the fleet. The quid pro quo must therefore be that industry accepts it can’t rely on voluntary approaches and market forces, which hasn’t really worked to date for SAF because it doesn’t create certainty for investors – and that governments must regulate and introduce effective carbon pricing that ensures uptake.”

Photo: ZeroAvia’s Piper M-class retrofitted aircraft undertakes first hydrogen flight