New research commissioned by Royal Schiphol Group, which operates Amsterdam’s Schiphol Airport, has concluded it must cut carbon emissions by at least 30% below 2019 levels before 2030 – compared to the national ambition of 9% – to meet climate targets aligning with the Paris Agreement. The Group commissioned two studies, one by the Netherlands Aerospace Centre (NLR), the other by sustainability research body CE Delft, to help establish what actions would be needed to contain the airport’s CO2 emissions within Paris parameters. Options proposed for Schiphol, one of Europe’s biggest air hubs, included further development of new technology, rapid upscaling of sustainable aviation fuel and “ambitious” demand management focusing on long-haul flights, premium class travel and private flights. The research also concluded that a net zero target for a specific year was insufficient to achieve decarbonisation goals and highlighted the need for ongoing incremental improvements.

“Given the strong international nature of aviation, it is essential that the polluter pays,” commented Royal Schiphol Group on the conclusions of the studies. “A strengthened national and international policy is needed.”

Based on the two reports, the group has recommended a package of remedial initiatives headlined by replacement of the Dutch air passenger tax with a distance-based tax targeting long-haul flights, which produce aviation’s highest CO2 emissions, and taxes on business class and private flights, with all takings to be reinvested in the Dutch aviation sector to assist its transition from fossil fuels.

Royal Schiphol also called for a broadening of the EU Emissions Trading System to include intercontinental flights, which are currently exempt, along with a Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) in Europe to prevent carbon leakage, and it endorsed a global kerosene tax and SAF blending obligations, to be overseen by ICAO.

The Schiphol recommendations follow a controversial decision last year in which the airport, mirroring the ambitions of its biggest shareholder, the Netherlands government, announced it would progressively cap the number of flights as a measure to reduce aircraft noise around the hub and beneath flight paths. KLM, the national and most affected airline, and IATA, on behalf of other operators, immediately launched court action to block the plan. They achieved temporary deferral of the ruling, a decision which was quickly overturned on appeal. But then the government suspended the plan, despite continued argument by the airport that flight restrictions would still be needed to contain noise and reduce emissions.

The report by the Netherlands Aerospace Centre estimates the nation’s aviation activity accounted for 1.16% of total global emissions from aviation, and that 96% of the Netherlands’ aviation CO2 was generated at Schiphol Airport.

“Current in-sector decarbonisation measures, excluding offsetting, are not enough to meet Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) derived carbon budgets compatible with 1.5 degrees Celsius global warming for Amsterdam Airport Schiphol,” says the report. “Significant demand management measures, to be implemented by 2030 at the latest, seem the only viable way out.”

It says 80% of Dutch flights are intra-EU and contribute about 20% of total aviation CO2 emissions, whereas 15% of the longest distance flights (over 5,000 km) are responsible for some 75% of emissions. “As such, demand management measures targeting long distance flights are more effective than measures reducing total demand,” says NLR.

The level of CO2 emissions in 2030 is the key determinant for cumulative emissions over the 2020-2050 period, stresses the report. Cumulative emissions 2020 to 2030 are governed by fleet renewal, operational improvements, SAF blending and the traffic network (number of flights). Cumulative emissions 2031 to 2050 are governed by RefuelEU Aviation, annual efficiency improvement and the 2030 emissions level. Additional and higher quality SAF, or further efficiency improvements only make a limited 2-8% impact on cumulative CO2 for 2031-2050.

The CE Delft report for Schiphol estimates aviation’s 2019 proportion of global CO2 emissions was 2.4% from tank-to-wing emissions – those created purely from aviation fuel combustion – and 3.9% from well-to-wing emissions, which also incorporate the CO2 expelled from fuel production and distribution.

“In the last decades aviation emissions grew by 3-4% per year,” it reports. “Growth in flights has always outperformed the efficiency improvements by new aircraft types and more efficient operations, leading to growth in emissions.

“A net zero target in a specific year is not sufficient. Global warming is driven by the cumulative greenhouse gas emissions between today and the moment when global net zero is achieved. In-sector action between now and 2030 reduces cumulative CO2 emissions but overshoots the majority of airport carbon budgets.”

The report says replacing fossil fuels with SAF is technically relatively easy but expensive and predicts technological breakthroughs such as battery-electric or hydrogen propulsion would not lead to significant emission reductions in the next two decades. It adds new aircraft types currently in development will be in operation in 2050, powered by kerosene or SAF.

“Immediate scaling up of biofuel production and pre-commercial development of the synthetic fuel production are essential,” says CE Delft. However, it cautions that availability of biomass fuel feedstock and renewable energy would be limited in coming decades, and demand for these resources would be high among competing sectors and global regions.

“Technological breakthroughs will come too late and SAF production has limits,” warns CE Delft, adding: “The instruments that are currently in place are not sufficient. They need to be updated or replaced as soon as possible.”

The CE Delft report concurs with the NLR conclusion that demand management measures are necessary to align the aviation sector with the goals of the Paris Agreement.

However, CE Delft acknowledges that if the number of long distance flights from the Netherlands is reduced, a large number of passengers and cargo operators will switch to other airports, while others will fly less as a consequence of a decline in connectivity and higher ticket prices.

“If the ambition to reduce CO2 is much higher in the Netherlands than in neighbouring or competing countries worldwide, this may lead to competitive disadvantages in the short term,” it says. “Not taking this action will have tremendous consequences in the long term.

“The aviation industry worldwide has to answer the question as to how it prevents a substantial overshoot of the remaining carbon budget. Action is needed in all parts of the world. This includes the development of new technology, fast upscaling of sustainable fuels but also ambitious demand management.”

Photo © Amsterdam Airport Schiphol (Roger Cremers)

Tony Harrington

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To achieve the European aviation sector’s ambition of achieving net zero emissions by 2050, additional expenditures amounting to €820 billion ($900bn) are required between 2018 and 2050, finds a study commissioned by five industry associations. These additional or ‘premium’ costs, mostly to be spent on alternative fuels, are on top of business-as-usual (BAU) expenditures, such as fleet renewal, which are required for the net zero transition. BAU expenditures over the 2018-2050 period are estimated at €1,068 billion, bringing the total expenditures towards reaching net zero at just under €1.9 trillion. The report just published, ‘The price of net zero’, determines financing in-sector sustainability measures yields substantially lower costs than realising the same emission savings through out-of-sector carbon reductions. The study follows up the industry’s Destination 2050 roadmap published in 2021.

The five Destination 2050 partners – A4E (airlines), ACI Europe (airports), ASD Europe (aerospace manufacturers) CANSO (air navigation service providers) and ERA (regional airlines) – commissioned consultancies SEO Amsterdam Economics and the Royal Netherlands Aerospace Centre to calculate the expenditures necessary to achieve the targets set out in the roadmap and accelerate European aviation’s decarbonisation.

“Although challenging to do an accurate assessment of the price of reaching net zero for the European aviation sector, we have commissioned this scientific study to establish a better understanding,” said the partners. “We are firmly committed to a climate neutral European aviation in line with the EU climate goals and the Paris Agreement targets. Therefore, decarbonisation is at the heart of our business.”

Of the €1.9 trillion, fleet renewal is found by the study to be the largest expenditure (43%) of which the BAU scenario represents over 90% and premium expenditure (the additional expenditures to be made above BAU) of around 10% (€740 billion and €80 billion respectively). However, the significant investment would result in a €188 billion saving in fuel costs and a further €78 billion saving in carbon pricing.

Expenditure on alternative fuels, which includes drop-in sustainable aviation fuels, hydrogen and renewable electricity, is the second largest expenditure (40%), with premium expenditures representing nearly 59% and BAU just over 41% of the costs (€441 billion and €310 billion respectively).

Other premium expenditures are required for air traffic management (€20 billion), ground operations (€9 billion), R&D in future aircraft (€100 billion), airport infrastructure adaptation (€18 billion) and carbon pricing and economic measures (€152 billion).

The use of economic measures, including negative emission technologies, accounting for about 19% of the premium expenditure, is required to compensate for all emissions remaining after the application of the in-sector activities. Both the EU Emissions Trading System (EU ETS) and ICAO’s CORSIA scheme are essential to reach net zero, say the partners.

However, they add: “Economic measures must be effective and focused on driving the required decarbonisation processes forward through positive incentives attracting in- and out-of-sector capital. On the contrary, taxation and operational restrictions will hamper the industry’s ability to invest and innovate due to a diminished financial capacity and in turn jeopardising the global competitiveness of European aviation.”

They “strongly recommend” revenues from the EU ETS be reused within the sector to support and incentivise breakthrough technologies, infrastructure and SAF production.

The report says financing in-sector sustainability measures yields substantially lower costs than realising the same emission savings through out-of-sector carbon reductions. It compares European airline revenues of an estimated €145 billion in 2018 with combined average annual expenditures towards net zero of €59 billion.

“The aviation sector’s expenditures towards achieving net zero are substantial and are dependent on access to finance from the private and public sector. This is vital when capital reserves are insufficient to make large upfront payments for new aircraft and infrastructure,” said the partners.

“Only with the right set of incentives and policies can the required capital be made available for the sector’s decarbonisation. This means timely and effective measures bringing long-term clarity and predictability for investors. Regulatory frameworks must encourage low carbon technology deployment.”

Photo (Fraport AG): Frankfurt Airport

Christopher Surgenor

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A study commissioned by the Netherlands to investigate the feasibility of electric aircraft has concluded commercial services by small, short-range e-planes could begin as early as 2026, reports Tony Harrington. The investigation focused on operations within the Netherlands, and between the Caribbean islands of Aruba, Bonaire and Curaçao, the so-called ‘ABC Islands’ region. It concluded nine-seat electric aircraft, for example the Eviation Alice, could be operated by 2026, while 19-seat electric aircraft, such as Sweden’s Heart Aerospace ES-19, could be in service by 2030. But the report also makes clear that for electric aircraft to enter commercial service, airport and energy infrastructure would require significant upgrading. The Netherlands has committed to stepped decarbonisation of its air transport sector, through 2030 initiatives including a 15% cut in domestic flight emissions compared to 1990, electric taxiing of aircraft and the introduction of hybrid-electric planes up to 50 seats, transitioning by 2050 to zero emission flights on all domestic routes and fully-electric aircraft on flights of up to 500 kilometres.

To develop a framework for the introduction of electric aircraft, the Ministry of Infrastructure and Water Management appointed Netherlands Airport Consultants (NACO), part of the Dutch-based global engineering consultancy Royal HaskoningDHV, and Royal NLR, the Netherlands Aerospace Centre, to explore technical, logistical, energy and financial requirements.

Their report, which has just been presented to the Netherlands House of Representatives, identified challenges including aircraft certification and battery capacity, ground infrastructure, sustainable energy sources and regulations governing the operation of electric aircraft. Multiple initiatives are already underway in the Netherlands, including Power-Up, a collaboration between four regional airports – Eindhoven, Rotterdam-The Hague, Groningen-Eelde and Maastricht-Aachen – to achieve short-range commercial flights with electric planes by 2026. The new study focused on the triangulated air routes connecting Aruba, Bonaire and Curaçao, which researchers deemed ideal for a detailed assessment of the infrastructure requirements and costs of e-aircraft on regional routes.

The flight distance between Aruba and Bonaire is 190 kilometres, while Bonaire-Curaçao is just 79 kilometres, and Curaçao-Aruba is 113 kilometres. Of this compact market, the study observed: “The point-to-point character of the connectivity, and at the same time the short distances, make it very suitable for the introduction of electric aircraft. The inter-island connections have great potential to be replaced by electric nine- and 19-seaters once the necessary infrastructure is there.” 

Acknowledging that “such a transition does not happen overnight”, the study laid out a three-stage strategy to progressively introduce all-electric flights between the ABC islands, beginning with three nine-seat e-aircraft by 2026, one based on each island, supported by a 400-kilowatt charging station at each airport to provide up to 30 minutes of recharging per plane.

By 2030, three 19-seat aircraft would be added, again one per island, supported by an additional 900 kilowatt charging station in each location. This would increase to six the number of electric aircraft serving the ABC market – a nine-seat and a 19-seat plane based on each island, and a total of 1.3 megawatts of charging capacity at each of the airports. Based on 2019 traffic data, these aircraft would replace 50% of the fossil fuel-powered flights now serving the islands.

The final stage of the programme, to be enacted in 2035, would see a doubling of the 2030 e-aircraft fleet and charging facilities, with the introduction of three more nine-seat and three more 19-seat planes, providing the ABC market with all-electric air services operated by 12 aircraft. Each island would host four electric planes – two nine-seaters and two 19-seaters – supported by four charging stations with combined capacity to deliver up to 2.6 megawatts of power during peak periods. That power would be provided either by solar panels or by wind power turbines.

The study concluded that airport energy infrastructure would require significant upgrading to accommodate electric aircraft.

“Charging an aircraft needs to be done swiftly in order to be competitive with regular turnaround times. Therefore, fast chargers are essential for electric aviation,” it said. “The energy supply for the charging stations should be sufficient and robust. During peak hours, enough power should be available to be able to charge multiple aircraft at the same time. Moreover, electric flight can only be zero-emission if the energy is sustainable too. If solar panels or wind energy are used, the peaks of the energy harvest need to be stored. In the early years, converting fully to renewable energy for the amount that is needed is challenging. The whole airport energy system including energy sourcing will need revision.”

Cost was also identified as a significant impediment to the introduction of electric aviation from 2025, unless some financial relief or incentive was provided.

“The ramp-up years might not be economically attractive for airlines or other aviation businesses to implement new aircraft technologies,” says the report. “The risk could result in long waiting time before ordering. Therefore, governments could incentivise the acquisition and operation of electric aircraft and required/associated infrastructure by offering supporting schemes or grants for airlines and airports. Taxation of aviation fuel or exemption of taxes can be used to either create a level playing field or stimulate the business case for electric aviation.”

Esther Kromhout, Director of NACO, one of the research partners, said: “Our study makes a valuable contribution to the discussion about the future of electric flying, and its role in making aviation more sustainable. The roadmap shows what is possible in the near future (2026-2030) based on current technical developments.” 

Martin Nagelsmit, Head of the Sustainability and Environment Department at Royal NLR, said there was “not one holy grail” to address the climate impact of current aircraft. “In addition to electric flying, even more is needed to make aviation more sustainable,” he said. “To adequately tackle the entire spectrum, we must focus on various solutions such as hydrogen propulsion, sustainable aviation fuels and even more efficient aircraft and operations.”

Top image: The nine-seat Eviation Alice electric aircraft could be in service by 2026