A new study by European lobby group Transport and Environment (T&E) has identified commitments to build 45 e-kerosene plants in 10 European nations, with combined potential to produce more synthetic aviation fuel by 2030 than required by the EU’s RefuelEU mandate. The group says 25 of the proposals are industrial scale and 20 are pilot projects but cautions that their futures are “very uncertain” as none have yet achieved final investment decisions. The T&E tally of promised e-kerosene facilities is 17 higher than its last count late in 2022 when it listed 28 announced projects to produce synthetic fuels for aviation. The study coincides with confirmation that low-cost airline Norwegian Air Shuttle has invested in Norsk e-Fuel, which is planning to build a large-scale electrofuel (e-fuel) production facility, while Nordic Electrofuel has secured a €40 million ($44m) grant from the EU Innovation Fund towards construction of its commercial-scale e-fuel plant in southern Norway.

Synthetic fuels are produced through a pathway known as power-to-liquid (PtL) which combines carbon dioxide captured from the atmosphere or directly from industrial plants with green hydrogen, produced by electrolysing water with renewable electricity. This process is increasingly viewed as a primary future source of SAF, as CO2 provides an abundant and easy-to-acquire feedstock for alternative fuels, compared to current ingredients of used fats, oils and greases or solid waste biomass.

While the ReFuelEU Aviation regulation has been designed to de-risk SAF production by establishing escalating blending mandates to ensure long term, predictable demand, T&E says there remain significant impediments to e-fuel production, including scarce supplies of green hydrogen and sustainable carbon sources, plus reluctance by many airlines to sign purchase agreements.

“We see proposals for e-kerosene plants springing up like mushrooms around Europe,” said Camille Mutrelle, SAF Expert at T&E. “The EU could meet its 2030 target to power planes with e-fuels. But the road is still long before we actually see e-kerosene in our planes. We need to move from paper to reality and ensure that e-kerosene projects truly materialise, or else the law will be nothing but empty words.”

ReFuelEU Aviation requires jet fuel suppliers to include e-kerosene in the blended supplies they deliver to EU airports, beginning with 1.2% in 2030 and increasing to 35% by 2050. 

The study says the 25 industrial projects identified by T&E have the ambition to produce 1.7 Mt of e-kerosene by 2030 – well over the 600 kt obliged under ReFuelEU, and sufficient to power the equivalent of 70,000 transatlantic flights, while avoiding a total of 4.6 million tonnes of CO2 emissions.

Of the 10 countries assessed, it found Norway, Germany and France to be the leading proponents of e-kerosene production. Norway’s e-kerosene plans are the most advanced in the markets surveyed, with total production capacity of 420,000 tonnes planned in 2030, and two of its companies, Nordic Electrofuel and Norsk e-Fuel, targeting almost 25% of the European market. 

Germany is targeting 0.5% e-kerosene use at its airports from 2026, increasing to 2% in 2030, while France has committed €200 million ($220m) to support innovative SAF programmes.  

The study adds that Norway, France, Germany and Sweden are attracting most investments in e-kerosene projects and says 80% of production is likely to be in these countries, “whereas Italy, Poland, Belgium, and, more broadly, eastern European states, are nowhere to be seen on the map.”

T&E’s e-kerosene research reveals a two-speed Europe, said Mutrelle. “While countries like Norway, Germany and France are pulling ahead in the e-kerosene race with some promising projects on the horizon, other countries like Spain, Italy and Poland are lagging behind and not making use of their potential,” she said.

“Ramping up the production of e-fuels for aviation should be a priority of national aviation decarbonisation strategies. Europe needs all the e-kerosene it can produce in order to convert dreams of more sustainable flights into reality.”

T&E said impediments to scaling up e-kerosene production in Europe include a lack of incentives to supply the fuel before 2030, limited availability of renewable hydrogen and carbon sources, insufficiently targeted EU funding for hydrogen use in hard-to-electrify sectors including aviation and shipping, and high production costs, the latter a significant barrier to securing offtake agreements with airlines.

The study therefore recommends prioritising the use of e-fuels in aviation and shipping, more EU funding focus on the use of hydrogen in these sectors, “meaningful” direct air capture policy incentives to increase CO2 transformation to fuel and establishment by EU states of pre-2030 targets to boost early supply of e-kerosene.

Interactive map of planned major e-kerosene projects in Europe (source: T&E)

Confirming Norway’s e-kerosene leadership, low-cost airline Norwegian has just formalised an initial investment of more than NOK 12 million ($1.1m) in Norsk e-Fuel, as part of  the carrier’s commitment to reduce its aircraft CO2 emissions 45% by 2030, and to secure assured supplies of SAF.

Norsk plans to build what it claims could be the world’s first large-scale production facility for e-fuel at a site in Mosjøen, northern Norway, close to the Arctic Circle. The companies say SAF could be flowing from the Mosjøen plant from late 2026.

The airline will secure more than 7,000 tonnes of fuel per year from the initial plant, a volume it says corresponds to its total fuel consumption in carrying 430,000 passengers between Oslo and Bodø in the country’s north-west – almost 80% of the 550,000 passengers the airline carries each year on that route.

It has pledged to invest a further NOK 40-50 million if plans for two additional factories progress, potentially increasing its SAF supplies from Norsk e-Fuel to 29,000 tonnes per year.

“This agreement marks the start of a pioneering partnership that will accelerate the transition to fossil-free fuels in aviation and give us access to a product that will be available in limited quantities,” commented Norwegian’s CEO, Geir Karlsen. “Increased production of this type of fuel is essential in the years to come if we are to succeed in the transition to more sustainable aviation.”

Norsk e-Fuel’s CEO, Karl Hauptmeier, said his company has ambitious plans to increase production, and the commitments of Norwegian and other partners “show the understanding of the critical role of e-fuels in shaping a future for aviation that is free from fossil fuels, both in Norway and across Europe.”

In addition to supplying Norwegian, Norsk e-Fuel has signed an e-kerosene offtake agreement with cargo operator Cargolux.

“E-fuel will be a major pillar to achieving net zero carbon emissions by 2050 in aviation,” said Richard Forson, CEO of Cargolux. “E-fuels are based on abundant feedstocks such as carbon dioxide and when produced with green electricity, the Norsk e-Fuel project will provide one of the highest greenhouse gas savings compared to conventional jet fuel. We look forward to offering our customers the option to have the ability to voluntarily enhance the sustainability initiatives through the use of e-fuels for their shipments as of late 2026.”

Norsk e-Fuel has also just signed an agreement with Gen2 Energy on the supply of green hydrogen for use as a feedstock for the Mosjøen facility. The two companies will have neighbouring plots at the Nesbrucket industrial site, where Gen2 Energy is planning large-scale production and supply of green hydrogen. As well as supplying Norsk e-Fuel, and subject to an investment decision later this year, Gen2 Energy is targeting export of green hydrogen to offtakers in Europe.

Direct air capture technology from Climeworks will be integrated in the production process, filtering CO2 from the atmosphere, with electrolysers from Dresden-based Sunfire at the core of the conversion process.

Vying with Norsk e-Fuel to build the world’s first commercial-scale aviation e-fuels production facility, Nordic Electrofuel has been awarded a €40 million ($44m) grant from the EU Innovation Fund’s pilot programme to support the construction of its plant at Herøya Industrial Park, Porsgrunn, in southern Norway.

In June last year, the company entered into a collaboration with Hamburg, Germany-based PtL technology company P2X-Europe for the long-term supply of synthetic fuels, in particular e-fuels for aviation (eSAF). Nordic Electrofuel will produce synthetic crude in Norway, which P2X-Europe will upgrade to eSAF and other synthetic products. Initial production and supply volume has been set at around 8,000 tonnes per annum, with plans for future production scale-up.

Top image: Illustration of the proposed 24,000-square-metre Norsk e-Fuel Mosjøen facility

Tony Harrington

Correspondent

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Although using CO2 from direct air capture (DAC) is important for e-fuels production in a net zero energy system, it is currently too expensive and could place a very high cost and technology risk burden on the e-fuels sector, concludes an E4Tech study commissioned by Transport & Environment (T&E) and presented in a webinar hosted by the Brussels-based NGO. The study recommends point source CO2 capture – capturing CO2 from industrial sources such as fossil or biomass power plants or cement production – be used in the near term for e-fuel production based on rigorous GHG assessment, while policies are put in place to support the commercialisation of DAC, reports Susan van Dyk. E-fuels are produced from CO2 and hydrogen, and the CO2 can be derived from direct air capture or industrial point sources. T&E estimates demand for e-kerosene (the subcategory of e-fuels suitable for aviation) for flights originating in Europe could grow to nearly 40 Mt in 2050 and completely replace fossil kerosene. It believes sourcing CO2 through DAC is “better than capturing it from industrial sources; a technique which, while cheaper, has the unintended effect of encouraging industries to continue to rely on fossil fuels.”

CO2 from industrial point sources can result in an overall reduction in emissions for the final e-fuel, but when derived through DAC it can potentially deliver carbon neutral e-fuels. Keith Whiriskey, Deputy Director at the Bellona Foundation, provided a perspective on CO2 accounting in DAC at the webinar, emphasising the climate benefits of e-fuels rely on both the source of CO2 and the source of hydrogen. From a carbon perspective, Whiriskey says DAC for e-fuel production is climate neutral. In contrast, CO2 from a point source for e-fuel production, where the CO2 originates from a fossil source, releases that CO2 back into the atmosphere when the e-fuel is combusted. While there is a reduction in CO2 emissions overall, only one of the parties can claim the reduction. From a carbon accounting perspective, the CO2 provider can claim an emission reduction based on carbon capture, but the e-fuel producer cannot simultaneously claim an emission reduction as this will amount to double counting. As Whiriskey explains, “one party can be low carbon – the other party must be full carbon.”

The source of hydrogen is equally important, he says. Unless hydrogen is derived from 100% renewable electricity, emissions from e-fuel production can increase. Whereas hydrogen from wind electricity produces around 0.5 tCO2/tH2, hydrogen from coal-derived electricity produces approximately 35 tCO2/tH2. Besides sourcing the hydrogen from renewable electricity, e-fuel production must be based on new or additional renewable electricity. Whiriskey points out that e-fuel production is an inefficient use of electricity and only offers low emission reductions per unit of renewable electricity used. As a climate measure, the use of renewable electricity for electric vehicles offers six times greater emission reductions, he says.

DAC compared to point source capture of CO2 is therefore not the only factor in determining the climate benefits of e-fuels. DAC can offer much greater climate benefits than point source CO2, and T&E therefore argues it should be considered the preferred source of CO2. However, compared with point source capture of CO2, DAC comes at a higher cost and has greater energy requirements. DAC is also at an early stage of development, explains Jo Howes, Principal Consultant at E4Tech, which was recently acquired by global sustainability advisory firm ERM. The study commissioned by T&E assessed whether, when and how DAC could be scaled up to meet the demands of an e-kerosene industry at the scale needed to decarbonise European aviation.

It determined the current costs of DAC are reported at €100-500/tCO2 ($120-600/tCO2) compared to point source CO2 capture costs of €70-150/tCO2. All DAC companies project much lower costs in the long term, ranging from €40-170/tCO2, but “only some of these are backed up by published data,” Howes told the webinar. At €503/tCO2, e-kerosene is calculated to be €4019/t compared to a current average jet fuel price of around €550/t. While reducing the cost of CO2 to €100/tCO2 can potentially reduce the cost of e-kerosene to €2405/t, this is still more than four times the current price of jet fuel.

Howes believes that requiring DAC for e-fuels would place a very high cost and technology risk burden on the emerging e-fuels sector and recommends point source CO2 should be allowed in the near term but with rigorous project-level GHG assessment. The study identifies the conditions to enable commercialisation of DAC as additional supply-side policy support, such as funding for research, development and demonstration (RD&D) and project investment, along with future mandates for DAC use within fuels policy or as part of broader GHG removal policy.

There are no fundamental limits on scaling up of DAC for future e-fuel production, said Howes. Many companies are currently pursuing DAC commercialisation, and large-scale projects are being developed, with the first 1 Mt/year facilities expected by 2023/2024. The speed of roll-out will depend on the existence of viable markets for CO2 capture, which is not limited to e-fuels production and includes the use of CO2 in industry and carbon capture and storage.

To produce T&E’s estimated annual 40 Mt of European e-kerosene by 2050, it would require 365 Mt/year of CO2 to be captured, finds the study. Canada-based DAC pioneer Carbon Engineering, in partnership with 1PointFive, is expecting to begin construction on a first commercial-scale plant in the United States that will capture up to 1 Mt/year of CO2 that will be stored permanently underground. The company is also piloting its ‘Air to fuels’ technology that is producing around 1 barrel of fuel per day. Swiss DAC company Climeworks, which has 14 plants currently either commissioned or in operation across Europe, is constructing its geothermal-powered Orca direct air capture and CO2 underground storage plant in Iceland. It will capture 4,000 tonnes of CO2 per year, which the company says will make it the world’s biggest climate-positive facility to date. By 2024, Climeworks expects to increase production across its facilities to 40,000 tCO2/year and then to 400,000 tCO2/year globally by 2027.

Based on the conclusions from the report, T&E has made some key recommendations of its own to policymakers. For the upcoming ReFuelEU Aviation initiative about to be announced, T&E recommends that DAC CO2 be required from the start of e-kerosene production, with any project receiving public support requiring a minimum share of 30% DAC, increasing over time to 100%. T&E believes the ReFuelEU legislative proposal should include an e-kerosene sub-target of 1% by 2030. T&E further recommends continued support for DAC RD&D through European and member state funding programmes, such as Horizon Europe, including support for basic and applied research, as well as pilot and demonstration funding.

According to T&E, and in agreement with the E4Tech study, policy support is crucial to “truly tap DAC’s full potential as one of the leading contributors to tomorrow’s clean aviation.” Without such policies, T&E believes DAC companies cannot solve the scalability and cost aspects of the equation. What is absent from the T&E recommendations is direct support for point source capture as proposed by the E4Tech report.

While e-fuels produced using DAC CO2 can undoubtedly deliver significant climate benefits, the high cost of DAC e-fuels is arguably the biggest obstacle to its development. Aggressive policies to support DAC, as outlined by T&E, could support the scale-up of DAC technology and realise the necessary future cost reductions to deliver sustainable fuels for aviation at a competitive price. However, e-kerosene will still need to compete with SAF produced through other technology pathways. Aviation is also a global sector, and European airlines may be reluctant to support policies that will place them at a competitive disadvantage. Several SAF producers using other technologies, have also demonstrated they can produce carbon neutral fuels to deliver similar climate benefits to e-fuels from DAC (see article).

Photo: When operational, Climework’s Orca DAC facility in Iceland will capture 4,000 tonnes of CO2 per year

Susan van Dyk

GreenAir Correspondent

www.svdconsulting.ca

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