To achieve the European aviation sector’s ambition of achieving net zero emissions by 2050, additional expenditures amounting to €820 billion ($900bn) are required between 2018 and 2050, finds a study commissioned by five industry associations. These additional or ‘premium’ costs, mostly to be spent on alternative fuels, are on top of business-as-usual (BAU) expenditures, such as fleet renewal, which are required for the net zero transition. BAU expenditures over the 2018-2050 period are estimated at €1,068 billion, bringing the total expenditures towards reaching net zero at just under €1.9 trillion. The report just published, ‘The price of net zero’, determines financing in-sector sustainability measures yields substantially lower costs than realising the same emission savings through out-of-sector carbon reductions. The study follows up the industry’s Destination 2050 roadmap published in 2021.

The five Destination 2050 partners – A4E (airlines), ACI Europe (airports), ASD Europe (aerospace manufacturers) CANSO (air navigation service providers) and ERA (regional airlines) – commissioned consultancies SEO Amsterdam Economics and the Royal Netherlands Aerospace Centre to calculate the expenditures necessary to achieve the targets set out in the roadmap and accelerate European aviation’s decarbonisation.

“Although challenging to do an accurate assessment of the price of reaching net zero for the European aviation sector, we have commissioned this scientific study to establish a better understanding,” said the partners. “We are firmly committed to a climate neutral European aviation in line with the EU climate goals and the Paris Agreement targets. Therefore, decarbonisation is at the heart of our business.”

Of the €1.9 trillion, fleet renewal is found by the study to be the largest expenditure (43%) of which the BAU scenario represents over 90% and premium expenditure (the additional expenditures to be made above BAU) of around 10% (€740 billion and €80 billion respectively). However, the significant investment would result in a €188 billion saving in fuel costs and a further €78 billion saving in carbon pricing.

Expenditure on alternative fuels, which includes drop-in sustainable aviation fuels, hydrogen and renewable electricity, is the second largest expenditure (40%), with premium expenditures representing nearly 59% and BAU just over 41% of the costs (€441 billion and €310 billion respectively).

Other premium expenditures are required for air traffic management (€20 billion), ground operations (€9 billion), R&D in future aircraft (€100 billion), airport infrastructure adaptation (€18 billion) and carbon pricing and economic measures (€152 billion).

The use of economic measures, including negative emission technologies, accounting for about 19% of the premium expenditure, is required to compensate for all emissions remaining after the application of the in-sector activities. Both the EU Emissions Trading System (EU ETS) and ICAO’s CORSIA scheme are essential to reach net zero, say the partners.

However, they add: “Economic measures must be effective and focused on driving the required decarbonisation processes forward through positive incentives attracting in- and out-of-sector capital. On the contrary, taxation and operational restrictions will hamper the industry’s ability to invest and innovate due to a diminished financial capacity and in turn jeopardising the global competitiveness of European aviation.”

They “strongly recommend” revenues from the EU ETS be reused within the sector to support and incentivise breakthrough technologies, infrastructure and SAF production.

The report says financing in-sector sustainability measures yields substantially lower costs than realising the same emission savings through out-of-sector carbon reductions. It compares European airline revenues of an estimated €145 billion in 2018 with combined average annual expenditures towards net zero of €59 billion.

“The aviation sector’s expenditures towards achieving net zero are substantial and are dependent on access to finance from the private and public sector. This is vital when capital reserves are insufficient to make large upfront payments for new aircraft and infrastructure,” said the partners.

“Only with the right set of incentives and policies can the required capital be made available for the sector’s decarbonisation. This means timely and effective measures bringing long-term clarity and predictability for investors. Regulatory frameworks must encourage low carbon technology deployment.”

Photo (Fraport AG): Frankfurt Airport

Christopher Surgenor

Editor

• Linkedin

A summit of 37 European countries, the European Commission and representatives from nearly 150 companies and stakeholders convened by the French government, which currently holds the presidency of the Council of the European Union, has affirmed support for the goal of achieving carbon neutrality in the air transport sector by 2050. Signatories to the ‘Toulouse Declaration’ have pledged to implement a basket of measures “with effective and ambitious interim milestones” to accelerate the transition of both the European as well as the international aviation sector to reach net zero carbon emissions by 2050. The United States, Canada, Morocco and Japan also took part in the summit and backed the Declaration. Another participant was Salvatore Sciacchitano, President of the ICAO Council, who commended the Declaration and its ambition for strengthening ICAO’s CORSIA international carbon offsetting scheme and the adoption of a long-term CO2 reduction goal at the UN agency’s assembly later this year.

Speaking at the conclusion of the European Aviation Summit, French transport minister Jean-Baptiste Djebbari commented: “Today, a new chapter in aviation history is being opened. In committing to reducing the carbon emissions of air transport by 2050, Europe is leading by example. All of us – governments, industry stakeholders, associations – have come together to rally behind this goal. We shall proudly and in unison uphold it on an international level.”

The summit held last week in Toulouse brough together the 27 EU member states and 10 other member states of the European Civil Aviation Conference (ECAC), including the United Kingdom, Switzerland and Norway. Working sessions were held at ENAC, the French National School of Civil Aviation, which included a presentation of a study of citizens of a dozen countries – Brazil, China, Egypt, France, Germany, India, Indonesia, Russia, South Africa, Turkey, the UK and the United States. The study highlighted citizens’ desire to both continue travelling and their strong expectations for air transport decarbonisation.

“They hope for a firm commitment from the air sector on a global level and particularly count on biofuels and new engine technologies (electric and/or hydrogen), despite being aware of the rise in prices that this will entail,” reported the French presidency.

The basket of measures to achieve the net zero goal include aircraft technology advancement, improvements in operations, the use of sustainable aviation fuels, market-based measures, carbon pricing, financial incentives and support to foster environmental and climate innovation in the air transport sector, of which “a number are addressed in the [EU’s] Fit for 55 package,” notes the declaration. It calls for “a regular and constructive dialogue, in Europe and worldwide, on the decarbonisation of aviation between authorities, industry and civil society” and for partners worldwide to work together for the adoption at this year’s ICAO Assembly of an ambitious long-term aspirational goal for international aviation of net zero carbon emissions by 2050.

The declaration also emphasises a need to address the non-CO2 impacts of aviation based on on-going research and “recognising that many CO2 reduction measures in aviation also reduce non-CO2 impacts”.

It also “invites other countries and international organisations to join this declaration, engage in the development of sectoral roadmaps, and work together towards sustainability and decarbonisation of aviation worldwide.” The declaration reaffirms the commitments set out in the UK-brokered declaration of the International Aviation Climate Ambition Coalition agreed by 25 countries at COP26 last November.

The European aviation industry last year set a goal of net zero carbon emissions by 2050, with an interim 2030 target of reducing carbon emissions on intra-European flights by 55% compared to 1990 levels, in line with the EU’s ‘Fit for 55’ climate goal. At the same time, the Destination 2050 roadmap, the work of the five major industry associations, was published on how the goals could be achieved. The sector proposed an ‘EU Pact for Aviation Decarbonisation’ between industry and national and EU policymakers to agree on targets and the alignment of the roadmap with the enabling of the necessary regulatory and financial framework.

“The Destination 2050 partners now expect the Toulouse Declaration to be translated into a structured dialogue and concrete policy action,” commented the five industry associations representing airlines, manufacturers, airports and air navigation – A4E, ACI Europe, ASD, ERA and CANSO – in a joint statement. “Industry is already transitioning to a decarbonised future through improvements in aircraft and engine technologies, the development of sustainable aviation fuels, improvements in air traffic management and aircraft operations, as well as through efficient economic measures.”

Urging the Commission and EU Member States signing the Declaration to develop and support its proposed Pact, the industry partners called for public and private funding to channel investments, R&D and innovation into decarbonisation and a more sustainable aviation ecosystem, and by including relevant aviation activities into the EU taxonomy for sustainable finance.

They also proposed initiatives and incentives for:

• The earmarking of revenues from the EU ETS to support decarbonisation activities;
• More sustainable airport infrastructure, operations and related services, including through the Airport Carbon Accreditation programme;
• Public incentives for the deployment of sustainable aviation fuels;
• Fleet renewal coupled with aircraft retirement, and bringing zero-emission aircraft to market by 2035, including through the supply and airport infrastructure deployment of green hydrogen and electricity; and
• A more sustainable, network-centric, modern and digital air traffic management system through the Single European Sky and SESAR.

The partners also call on the European Commission to implement the launch of industrial alliances to align the entire ecosystem around the joint ambition. While supporting Europe’s ambition for global action on agreeing a long-term aspirational goal at ICAO, they stress that it must preserve a level playing field and international competitiveness.

Photo: Toulouse-Blagnac Airport (© Philippe Garcia)

The European aviation sustainability Destination 2050 initiative identifies a route to achieving net zero CO2 emissions by 2050 through a combination of four key measures. These comprise: Improving aircraft and engine technologies, which could achieve emission reductions of 37%; using sustainable aviation fuels (SAFs), estimated to achieve emission reductions of 34%; implementing economic measures, contributing 8%; and improving air traffic management and aircraft operations, expected to achieve emission reductions of 6%. Air traffic management (ATM) uniquely provides an opportunity to deliver fast, measurable gains to help to meet interim targets in the next 15 years, writes Jenny Beechener. Measures already underway as part of the European Commission Single European Sky (SES) initiative – recently updated in September 2020 to take into account the objectives of the Commission’s Green Deal – have actually accelerated during the recent period of low traffic.

European air navigation service providers (ANSPs) have implemented more than three quarters of initial Free Route Airspace (FRA) – mandated by the end of 2022 under EC SES Implementing Regulation (EU) No 116/2021. While traffic flows must still be segregated for safety reasons, the FRA environment allows airspace users to plan more efficient flight paths between defined entry and exit points thanks to a reduction in intermediate waypoints. Eurocontrol estimates once free route airspace is fully implemented Europe-wide, potential savings could reach 3,000 tonnes fuel/day and 10,000 fewer CO2 tonnes/day.

Taking advantage of quiet skies, ANSPs managing the European core area introduced FRA in the region’s busiest airspace to enable airspace users to file optimised flight-plans and route profiles. Airspace users gained access to FRA on many night networks in addition to FRA around the clock in upper airspace controlled by Maastricht (since December 2019) and Karlsruhe (since February 2021) control centres, with major centres in both France and Switzerland preparing to implement similar procedures from the end of 2021.

The traffic downturn and increased availability of air traffic controller expertise during the pandemic enabled implementation of further airspace management projects aimed at building better foundations for sustainable operations going forward. ANSPs operating within Functional Airspace Block Europe Central (FABEC) airspace, an area handling more than 55% of European flights, removed over 500 flight level caps and air traffic flow and capacity management measures in the first six months. These measures are used to manage traffic during periods of high demand.

In addition, airspace users saved on advice of FABEC air traffic controllers 68 million track miles during the actual flight compared with filed airline flight plans, reducing carbon dioxide emissions by 1.4 million tonnes. By the end of 2020, horizontal flight efficiency in FABEC airspace reached 97.06%, exceeding SES performance targets and close to the optimum possible.

The challenge is to maintain the shorter flight-plannable route options as traffic returns, prompting several new initiatives involving neighbouring ANSPs. Among early measures, ANSPs in Switzerland and Germany shortened routes over the Alps by 15 nautical miles in June 2020, saving flight time and reducing fuel consumption. Flights destined for northern Italy now follow a more direct route across central and southern Germany, and similar changes are being considered for flights from north east Europe destined for airports in Spain and North Africa. The two ANSPs also introduced permanent procedures that enables airspace users to remain at fuel-efficient cruising heights for longer and to reach higher altitudes earlier across the international boundary. Flight arrivals cross the border 2,000-4,000 ft higher than previously and Frankfurt departures entering Swiss airspace are no longer held at FL320 but can enter at any altitude, generating an average saving of 32kg of fuel or 100kg of carbon dioxide per flight.

Graph showing the vertical profiles of daily Frankfurt departures to the south via Zurich ACC before (in red) and after (in green) the introduction of new cross-border procedures between Germany and Switzerland, saving 100kg of CO2 per flight.

New sector boundaries are being introduced as part of the Cooperative Optimisation of Boundaries, Routes and Airspace (COBRA) project. COBRA aims to reduce complexity and provide more efficient traffic management by replacing coordination between multiple sectors with bilateral handovers and the provision of new route options. For example, shorter routes along the Karlsruhe – Maastricht boundary simplify connections between adjacent approach centres and improve vertical profiles for several arrivals and departures to and from hub airports in the core area of Europe. The procedures are supported by validation simulations, controller training and new concept of operations with implementation expected in 2022. Maastricht Upper Area Control Centre (MUAC) is also engaged in a sectorisation review to identify improvements to flight planning which aims to deliver further network improvements in 2021/22.

Since March 2021, MUAC airspace sector organisation is better suited to the European concept of free route airspace and ready to support higher traffic levels as soon as commercial schedules resume. Benefits include a reduction in flight planning restrictions and the creation of several shorter flight-plannable route options. Simulations predict that on the basis of pre-pandemic traffic, the change will bring a weekly CO2 saving potential of 6,700 kg and offer flight-plannable gains of 280 nautical miles.

While these measures aim to save flight miles and reduce carbon emissions, other greenhouse gas emissions such as NOx and particulate matter provide the focus for separate ATM research. Preliminary findings show about half the climate impact of aviation originates from non-carbon dioxide effects of kerosene use, including the soot particles emitted from aircraft that lead to formation of contrails. The SESAR Exploratory Research project FlyATM4E is investigating the impact that weather situations and aircraft trajectories have on the formation of contrails and their persistence. The research partners aim to develop a concept to identify climate-optimised aircraft trajectories to enable an eco-efficient reduction in aviation’s climate impact, taking into account the balance between contrail avoidance and additional fuel burn.

In a practical application, MUAC is examining how relatively minor operational measures such as small flight level changes, for example diverting aircraft 2000 ft up or down from their normal flight path, can reduce persistent contrail formation and contrail cirrus. The trial includes creating a contrail prevention system; implementing operational procedures for contrail prevention; and the validation of the methodology with satellite image analysis by the project partner DLR.

Engaging with airspace users and ensuring network constraints are kept to a minimum are key steps in ensuring airlines take advantage of more efficient flight trajectories, enhance fuel efficiency and lower emissions. However, to be successful these measures depend upon more than just ANSP activities. Pan-European agency Eurocontrol published an assessment of benefits arising from operational ATM improvements examining fuel burn from take-off to landing across the whole ATM network in December 2020. The report concludes that reducing air transport emissions by up to 10% requires different tools, policy measures and the full collaboration of all the various involved aviation stakeholders. It emphasises the need for collaboration in the roles and responsibilities of each operational stakeholder, from ANSPs to airlines, including airports and the Network Manager, through mechanisms such as collaborative decision-making (A-CDM).

Photo: Eurocontrol Maastricht Upper Area Control Centre

About the author

Jenny Beechener

Jenny is a freelance airspace management writer covering manned and unmanned air traffic sectors. Previous roles include Editor of Jane’s Airport Review, Editor of Jane’s Air Traffic Control and Managing Editor of Air Traffic Management. She can be contacted at jennifer.beechener@btinternet.com.

Analysis by the International Council on Clean Transportation (ICCT) shows there are sufficient sources of sustainable feedstock to support the production of 3.4 million tonnes (Mt) of advanced sustainable aviation fuels (SAF) annually in the EU by 2030, around 5.5% of projected EU jet fuel demand. Waste oils is the most technically mature SAF pathway at present and could produce up to 2% of the share although this resource is highly constrained and largely consumed by the road sector. Moving beyond 2% of SAF deployment will require targeted support by the EU for more conversion pathways such as lignocellulosic biofuels and electrofuels, which come with more challenging economics and uncertain production timelines, says ICCT. Current volumes of SAF are below 0.1% of EU annual jet fuel consumption. The European aviation industry’s recent Destination 2050 roadmap estimates SAF deployment of 3 Mt in 2030, rising to 32 Mt – equal to 83% of total jet kerosene consumption – in 2050 if given strong political support.

Ahead of the forthcoming launch by the European Commission’s ReFuel EU Aviation policy initiative, the study by ICCT evaluates the resource base that could support SAF production in the EU from 2025 to 2035, focusing only on the potential volumes available from sustainably available feedstocks. It also takes into account sustainable harvesting limits, existing other uses of feedstock materials and SAF conversion yields.

Deploying SAF requires overcoming even greater economic and technological constraints than deploying alternative fuels to the road sector, cautions the study. The vast majority of biofuels up till now have come from first-generation, food-based production, although the EU is transitioning away from these fuels. By targeting the deployment of advanced SAFs from non-food feedstocks early on, the developing SAF industry can avoid the controversies around food-based biofuels, it argues, although there will be limiting factors around economic viability, feedstock supply and pace of technology advances.

Waste oils, including used cooking oil, animal fats and other fatty acids, offer the cheapest and easiest means for producing SAF with current technology. In 2018, hydrogenated esters and fatty acids (HEFA), which can be blended up to 50% by volume with petroleum-based kerosene, were the most common alternative drop-in jet fuels with about 360,000 tonnes of capacity in the EU. Their advantage is that infrastructure is already in place to support large production volumes and are likely to be the cheapest source of SAF in the near term. Production costs are around twice the cost of fossil-based jet fuel production, while other conversion processes may be as much as eight times higher.

Lignocellulosic feedstocks from agricultural and forestry residues and from municipal and industrial waste are more technically challenging to convert than waste oils due to their physical properties. However, these feedstocks are more abundant than waste fats and, when converted into SAF, generally have higher GHG savings than food-based SAF pathways. Feedstock conversion pathways include gasification with Fischer-Tropsch synthesis or by upgrading ethanol or isobutanol into drop-in fuel quality or alcohol-to-jet fuels. The delays in building compatible biorefineries have so far slowed down the commercialisation of lignocellulosic biofuel pathways.

ICCT estimates 76.5 Mt of feedstocks from agricultural residues, 5.1 Mt from forestry residues and 21.2 Mt of municipal and industrial waste will be available for biofuel production in 2030.

Cover crops, which are grown during the winter and harvested in the spring before sowing of principal crops, could also provide additional feedstock for SAF production, though their future contribution is uncertain. Cover cropping is relatively uncommon in Europe so in theory there is the possibility to expand the practice without substantial negative environmental or market impacts. Potential cover crops could include oilseeds such as rapeseed and carinata. ICCT estimates cover crops could provide an additional 7.15 Mt of lignocellulosic feedstocks for SAF production in 2030.

The study also looks at non-biological pathways for producing SAF such as electrofuels (e-fuels), also called power-to-liquid (PtL) fuels. This is a potentially low-carbon yet resource-intensive pathway involving splitting water into hydrogen and oxygen via electrolysis, with the hydrogen then synthesised in a reactor with carbon dioxide to produce liquid or gaseous hydrocarbons or alcohols. To ensure these fuels are both sustainable and low-carbon, renewable electricity used in SAF production should not be diverted from other uses.

The amount of PtL that could be theoretically available for SAF is very large, says the study, but the potential is unlikely to be met in the timeframe, given the high cost and time required to commercialise an emerging industry. For the most economical scenario, using grid-connected wind electricity and industrial CO2, it would require policy support of €2 per litre, which, according to the study, is very high compared to current alternative fuel subsidies and other forms of European policy support. However, at that incentive level and if SAF is a high political priority, then PtL aviation fuels could conceivably be provided in the 2030 timeframe in quantities estimated at 0.006 Mt in 2025 to 0.15 Mt by 2030 and 0.23 Mt by 2035.

Achieving higher production quantities would be possible, says ICCT, with greater policy support, such as a sub-mandate for e-fuels, and especially with more time for industry commercialisation and when the price of renewable electricity declines.

The final source of feedstocks examined by the study that could play a part in 2030 EU SAF production is industrial flue gases, which are captured, fermented and upgraded into SAF, a process developed by LanzaTech for steel mills. The process produces an ethanol intermediate which is then converted to a synthetic hydrocarbon. Assuming steel production remains near 2018 levels, the study estimates industrial flue gases would yield 3.3 Mt of ethanol for further upgrading to transport fuels, contributing an additional 0.76 Mt of alcohol-to-jet SAF in 2030.

Estimated 2030 SAF production and contribution to overall EU jet fuel demand by feedstock (source: ICCT)

ICCT’s central estimate of EU jet fuel demand, based on a 4.5% growth rate in conjunction with a 2.0% annual fuel efficiency improvement and without accounting for the Covid-19 pandemic, is 55.5 Mt in 2025, 62.8 Mt in 2030 and 71.1 Mt in 2035. Although there is a sufficient resource base to theoretically support peak production of 12.2 Mt of SAF a year, it says with deployment and feedstock constraints in place there is a maximum potential for 3.4 Mt, or 5.5% of 2030 jet fuel demand. Without any targeted support for more challenging pathways, the actual SAF potential could be closer to 1.9%, primarily drawn from easier-to-convert HEFA fuels.

“Expanding SAF beyond today’s production levels will require substantial financial incentives to overcome the economic and technical barriers that have thus far kept production low,” concludes the study. “Absent strong policy support and long-term commitments to advanced fuels, it will be difficult to do more than divert waste oils from other sectors. High blending targets in the absence of complementary policies may instead open the door to higher use of food-based biofuels in aviation.

“Even with strong policies in place, the limited availability of the best-performing feedstocks suggests that SAF production alone cannot achieve the EU aviation sector’s long-term GHG reduction obligations.”

Photo: Air BP