In its latest progress report to Parliament, the UK’s independent advisory Climate Change Committee says continued unconstrained capacity expansion at UK airports is putting at risk the government’s net zero emissions target. The Committee has previously recommended there should be no net airport expansion across the UK but notes UK airports have increased their capacities and continue to develop expansion proposals. Unless aviation’s carbon intensity is outperforming the government’s pathway and can accommodate this additional demand, it says, no airport expansions should proceed until a UK-wide capacity management framework is in place to annually assess and, if required, control sector CO2 emissions and non-CO2 effects. Making up 7% of all UK emissions, estimated aviation emissions in 2022 were 29 MtCO2e, up 95% from 2021, but still 25% below 2019 levels.

The longer term historical trend shows a gradual increase in emissions due to rising demand for long-haul flights only partly being compensated for by improved efficiencies. “Overall, our aviation indicators are not showing progress that can be attributed to policy implementation,” says the Committee’s report.

The UK government’s Jet Zero Strategy for achieving net zero emissions from UK aviation by 2050, published in July 2022, recommitted to 70% passenger demand growth by 2050 on 2018 levels. However, its reliance on nascent technology, especially rapid SAF uptake and aircraft, is a high-risk approach, warns the Committee.

“The government does not have a policy framework in place to ensure that emissions reductions in the aviation sector occur if these technologies are not delivered on time and at sufficient scale,” it points out and says demand management is the most effective way of reducing aviation CO2 and non-CO2 emissions. The range of options to manage demand available to the government, it suggests, include digital technologies, addressing private flying and providing lower-cost domestic rail travel.

“The government should develop a suite of policy and technology options to address aviation demand,” it advises. The capacity management framework should be developed by the Department for Transport in cooperation with the devolved UK administrations over the next 12 months “and should be operational by the end of 2024 at the latest.”

The Committee’s own forecasts assume a 2-3% uptake of sustainable aviation fuel  by 2030, while the government is expected to adopt a much more ambitious 10% target under its SAF mandate, which the Committee says is both delayed and dependent on an uncertain domestic and global feedstock supply.

“The government must build in contingency and risk management into the SAF mandate to prepare for the possibility of constrained domestic and global SAF supply throughout the 2020s and 2030s,” it states, and also recommends the government commits to a minimum goal of no further additional warming after 2050 from non-CO2 effects.

Commenting on the report, the Committee’s outgoing Chairman, Lord Deben, said: “In present circumstances, there can be no question of allowing unconstrained airport expansion. The government has placed all the emphasis on new technologies, but we must not forget aviation demand. I’d urge the government to reconsider its recent Jet Zero Strategy.”

In a briefing to journalists, he added: “We have to make it quite clear to government that you cannot allow emissions growth from aviation beyond what we have already said. At the moment, it seems open ended in that capacity can be expanded at one airport but nothing done to reduce it elsewhere. There needs to be a clear statement from government about what it means in practical terms, rather than the present situation.”

Responding to the report, Cait Hewitt, Policy Director of UK campaign group Aviation Environment Federation, said: “This is the Committee’s strongest ever advice on airport expansion. But in fact they’ve been telling the government for years to get a grip on aviation demand. Instead, the official strategy allows unlimited growth in flying in the hope that new technologies and fuels will save the day.

“We can’t sit back and wait to see if these magic planes will appear on the market while building in expansions that will allow for more and more fossil-powered flying. The government’s ‘jet zero’ plans are already falling apart – it’s recently had to admit that it has no idea how to get enough sustainable feedstock to meet its targets to make aircraft fuel out of wastes and we’ve yet to see any proposals for ramping up aircraft efficiency improvements.

“The government needs to stop giving in to the aviation industry’s insatiable demands for growth and recognise that in a climate emergency, all sectors of the economy need to start doing things differently.”

The Airport Operators Association, which represents 40 UK airports, said it disagreed with the Committee’s recommendation on airport expansion.

“The aviation industry and the UK government both have a plan in place for UK aviation to achieve net-zero by 2050 while still accommodating growth in air travel in that same time frame. Banning airport expansion now, in the way suggested would damage the UK’s economic future and deter investment from the UK,” said Chief Executive Karen Dee.

“What is needed, rather than focusing on preventing people flying, is policies and measures which enable change: for example through modernising airspace, supporting and requiring the use of sustainable aviation fuel, and supporting the development and deployment of hydrogen and electric flight. By adopting this approach, we can deliver our net-zero ambitions while also ensuring people can continue to enjoy the many and varied benefits that aviation delivers.”

Previous recommendations from the Committee that have been adopted by the government include aviation emissions from international flights being included in the UK’s net zero target and, from 2033, included in the legally-binding UK carbon budgets.

Photo: London Gatwick Airport is preparing a planning application to bring its northern runway into regular use, for departures, alongside its main runway

Christopher Surgenor

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The UK government has published its Jet Zero strategy to achieve a target of net zero aviation emissions by 2050. It expects UK emissions to have peaked in pre-pandemic 2019 at 38.2 million tonnes of CO2 equivalent (MtCO2e) and is setting a goal of reducing this to 19.3 MtCO2e in-sector emissions by 2050, with the remainder compensated through carbon markets and investments in greenhouse gas removal (GGR) technologies. The strategy also commits UK domestic aviation, which is responsible for 1.4 MtCO2e (4%) of total emissions annually, to achieving net zero by 2040 and for all airports in England to be zero-emission by the same year. The government believes sustainable aviation fuels are a key technology, particularly for long-haul flights, in reaching net zero and pledges to build “a thriving” UK SAF production industry, and will bring in a SAF mandate by 2025, when it expects at least five commercial-scale plants to be under construction in the UK that will help to ensure 10% SAF use (1.2 Mt) by 2030. Aviation fuel usage reached 12.4 Mt in 2019 and under its ‘high ambition’ scenario, 5 Mt of SAF are required by 2050 to meet net zero. The government also sees hydrogen as playing an important role in the development of future zero emission aircraft.

“We want 2019 to be remembered as the peak year for aviation emissions. From now on, it should all be downhill for carbon emissions and steadily uphill for green flights,” commented UK Transport Secretary Grant Shapps on the publication of the Jet Zero Strategy, released at the recent Farnborough Airshow.

Although acknowledging reaching net zero will be challenging and that aviation will be one of the UK’s largest residual emitting industries in 2050, the government believes the sector can reach the target without resorting to demand management to cap its growth.  “Rather than clipping its wings, our pathway recognises that decarbonisation offers huge economic benefits, creating the jobs and industries of the future and making sure UK businesses are at the forefront of this green revolution,” said Shapps.

The foreword by transport ministers to the strategy document says by future-proofing aviation, “passengers can look forward to guilt-free travel. In doing so, our economy can reduce its dependence on dirty energy. We can unlock the benefits of green technology and the thousands of new skilled jobs that come with it. And aviation, often criticised for its contribution to climate breakdown, can safeguard its future through a more sustainable industrial model.”

The government sees six priority areas as part of the strategy, covering efficiency improvements in aircraft and airspace, increasing support for SAF, supporting the development of zero-emission aircraft, developing carbon markets and GGR technologies, providing consumers with better information so they can make sustainable aviation choices and increasing understanding of aviation’s non-CO2 impacts.

The strategy says aircraft fuel efficiency will be improved by 2% every year and the government is pledging a further £3.7 million (4.5m) will be provided in 2022 and 2023 to support airports in modernising their airspace. It will also support the domestic SAF industry and the commitment for five new commercial-scale SAF plants to be under construction by 2025, helped by a new £165 ($200m) million Advanced Fuels Fund. This will build on previous funding, such as the £15 million Green Fuels, Green Skies competition. The government has also announced a £1 million competition to deliver the first-ever net zero transatlantic flight powered by 100% SAF.

It is also supporting industrial R&D through the ATI Programme, with £685 million ($835m) funding over the next three years to support the development of zero-carbon and ultra-low emission aircraft technology, and has also invested £3 million in the Zero Emission Flight Infrastructure (ZEFI) project. The government has an aspiration to have zero emission routes connecting different parts of the UK by 2030. To help achieve the goal, it pledges to double UK ambition for hydrogen production to up to 10GW by 2030, with at least half of this from electrolytic hydrogen. Rapid investment in hydrogen aviation could see the UK, says the government, securing up to 19% of the global aerospace industry share, valued at £178 billion per year in 2050, and 60,000 aerospace jobs on zero-carbon aircraft by the same year.

Although the strategy focuses on reductions in CO2 emissions, the government recognises aviation’s additional climate warming impacts from contrail cirrus and other non-CO2 effects. However, it says, there are “large uncertainties” over the magnitude of these impacts – around eight times more uncertain than those resulting from CO2. Current research indicates SAF can produce 50%-70% fewer soot particles, which could reduce the overall warming effect of contrails, but, says the government, “we will carefully consider any need for additional research and development activity on non-CO2 effects, including working with UK Research and Innovation.” It adds that it is exploring whether and how non-CO2 impacts could be included in the scope of the UK ETS and aims to develop a methodology to monitor non-CO2 impacts “on a regular basis”.

As part of the strategy, the government wants consumers to have access to environmental information at the time of booking a flight and intends working with the CAA on a Call for Evidence to be published this coming autumn. It also wants consumers to have available sustainable modes of transport to and from airports in England.

On the controversial subject of UK airport expansion, the strategy document says: “We will support airport growth where it can be delivered within our environmental obligations. The aviation sector is important for the whole of the UK economy in terms of connectivity, direct economic activity, trade, investment and jobs. We are committed to enabling a green recovery of the sector, as well as sustainable growth in the coming years.

“The government’s existing planning policy frameworks, along with the Jet Zero Strategy and the Flightpath to the Future strategic framework for aviation, have full effect and are material considerations in the statutory planning process for proposed airport development.”

However, it adds: “It is vital that local communities and the wider public have confidence that the impacts of airport expansion have been properly considered.”

The Jet Zero Strategy, says the government, is underpinned by three guiding principles that will apply to all policy measures: providing international leadership, engaging in collaborative partnerships (such as the Jet Zero Council) and maximising the opportunities to create new jobs, industries and technologies. On the first, it intends to carry on its ongoing work at ICAO for member states to agree an ambitious long-term aspirational goal on emissions from international aviation and agree and support measures to meet the goal, including strengthening CORSIA and introducing a global SAF objective. It also expects to build on its collaboration with like-minded states – now numbering 34 in total – through the International Aviation Climate Ambition Coalition (IACAC) that was launched by the UK at COP26.

The government promises to review the strategy every five years and measure progress against its emissions reduction trajectory and key performance indicators that have been set out across each policy measure.

“This strategy provides the clear vision and leadership required to tackle one of the great industrial challenges of our time – decarbonisation of aviation,” commented UK Business Secretary Kwasi Kwarteng. “Importantly, it is also clear the global shift to cleaner forms of flight represents a huge opportunity to secure growth and jobs for the UK.

“Through the ambitious steps outlined in this strategy and close collaboration with our world-leading industrial and innovation base, the UK stands ready to capitalise on first mover status, seizing the economic benefits of a green aviation revolution.”

Welcoming the government’s net zero strategy, Emma Gilthorpe, CEO of the industry/government Jet Zero Council, said: “This is a key milestone on the path to decarbonising aviation, setting the framework for the Council to continue its great progress on sustainable aviation fuels and zero emission flight, and providing key policies to get us there, including a SAF mandate.

“I also welcome the ambitions for five SAF plants to be under construction by 2025 and zero-emission UK routes this decade, and look forward to working with the Council’s dedicated delivery groups to help achieve this.”

Photo: Heathrow Airport