The Jet Zero Council, a collaboration with industry set up by the previous UK government, has been relaunched as the Jet Zero Taskforce, with the aim of streamlining aviation decarbonisation priorities as the sector strives to reach its net zero emissions by 2050 target. The Taskforce will support the production and delivery of sustainable aviation fuels and zero emission flights, as well as look at how to improve aviation systems to make them more efficient. It will also explore the sector’s demand for GHG removals and the non-CO2 impacts of aviation. The UK’s SAF mandate, which takes effect from January 1, has now officially been signed into law, requiring 22% of all jet fuel to come from sustainable sources by 2040. The government has also started a public consultation on the implementation of ICAO’s global carbon offsetting scheme CORSIA, how it will be regulated in the UK and the penalties for non-compliance.

The restructured Jet Zero Taskforce will feature an annual CEO-level meeting chaired by the UK’s Transport Secretary that will set priorities for tackling aviation emissions and review progress. Members will include the Secretary of States for Business and Trade, and Energy Security and Net Zero, plus CEOs of major airlines such as easyJet, British Airways and Virgin, airports like Heathrow and Manchester, as well as senior representatives from fuel producers, trade bodies and universities.

Below the executive Plenary level will be a smaller Expert Group to support the Taskforce’s priorities, which will be jointly chaired by the Aviation Minister, currently Mike Kane, and Holly Boyd-Boland, VP of Corporate Development at Virgin Atlantic. “By pinpointing key barriers to decarbonisation and directing a select number of smaller action groups to tackle these challenges, this level will be crucial to the delivery of the Taskforce’s objectives,” explained the Department for Transport, which acts as the secretariat.

“Taking up the role of industry chair is a huge privilege and I look forward to working alongside government, with its renewed focus and leadership of the Jet Zero Taskforce,” said Boyd-Boland. “Together, we can harness the ambition across industry to achieve net zero 2050.”

Added Tim Alderslade, CEO of trade body Airlines UK: “Collaboration with government and across the whole sector and supply chain is vital to making the rapid progress we need, and we look forward to working with the new Taskforce to help usher in a new era of sustainable air travel, with all the jobs and investment that entails.”

The first plenary meeting of the Taskforce took place on December 4.

A main priority is to support the development, production, commercialisation and use of sustainable aviation fuels in the UK and also globally. The government will invest up to £450,000 ($570,000) to support aviation decarbonisation measures in other countries, such as helping developing states develop policy and access financing for SAF, as well as to offset carbon emissions from international flights. The announcement coincided with the visit to the UK of the ICAO Secretary General, Juan Carlos Salazar, and the signing of a memorandum of understanding covering all areas of UK-ICAO cooperation.

The UK SAF mandate, which applies from 1 January 2025, has now passed into law. Starting at 2% of total UK jet fuel demand, equal to around 230,000 tonnes, the use of SAF is intended to increase on a linear basis to 10% in 2030 and then to 22% in 2040, after when the obligation will remain at 22% “until there is greater certainty regarding SAF supply,” says the government. The supply of HEFA-derived fuels will be capped after the first two years of the mandate, which will become more stringent over time. A separate obligation (0.2% of jet fuel demand) on power-to-liquid fuels kicks in from 2028 that reaches 3.5% of total jet fuel demand in 2040.

The mandate also introduces tradeable certificates for the supply of SAF, with additional certificates awarded for fuels with higher GHG emissions savings, and a buy-out price mechanism will operate to allow suppliers to discharge their obligation. It is intended that the value of certificates will narrow the gap between the price of kerosene and the cost of SAF, thereby encouraging the production of SAF.

However, the government acknowledges that the mandate alone may not provide sufficient long-term certainty to maximise investment in SAF production in the UK. It has therefore committed through legislation to introducing a revenue certainty mechanism by the end of 2026 to provide investor confidence.

CORSIA implementation

The government has also opened a public consultation on its proposals for how the UK will implement and regulate ICAO’s global Carbon Offsetting and Reduction Scheme for International Aviation (CORSIA), which requires airlines to offset CO2 emissions on international routes above a given baseline (85% of 2019 emissions from international aviation). The consultation seeks feedback on proposed penalties for non-compliance.

It also includes proposals on how CORSIA can be implemented while maintaining commitments under the UK Emissions Trading Scheme (ETS), including how flights from the UK to Europe can be prevented from being subject to both schemes and measures “to ensure airlines are not unfairly burdened”.

Said the government: “This approach also aims to avoid unnecessary price increases for passengers, ensuring the UK’s decarbonisation efforts do not negatively impact those who rely on air travel.”

The UK is one of 129 countries now taking part in CORSIA and, with the mandatory phase starting in 2027, is offering support to other countries to help them participate in the scheme. The UK has already trained 11 other countries in Africa and other regions to apply the scheme.

“The UK is already at the forefront of global efforts to address climate change and carbon pricing schemes play a vital role in decarbonising aviation,” said Aviation Minister Mike Kane.

“The government is committed to supporting the aviation industry and with our Plan for Change at the heart, we’re helping the UK transition to a cleaner future in the most cost-effective way. We welcome all views on how airlines can continue participating in these crucial initiatives.”

The consultation has been welcomed by IATA. “We support the UK government’s plans to adopt and implement the scheme, and encourage countries to prepare for CORSIA implementation in full alignment with the ICAO CORSIA Standards and Recommended Practices, and to make the needed carbon credits available,” commented Marie Owens Thomsen, SVP Sustainability & Chief Economist.

The UK is implementing CORSIA in two parts, the first of which is the requirement to monitor, report and verify (MRV) CO2 emissions, and has already been incorporated into UK law. The second, on which the government is now consulting, concerns the requirement to offset CO2 emissions, including the applicability and calculation of offsetting requirements and cancellation of CORSIA credits, called Eligible Emissions Units (EEUs), and also the interaction between CORSIA and the UK ETS.

Penalties and enforcement for non-compliance with CORSIA’s MRV requirements are consistent with UK ETS legislation and the government proposes this approach is also followed for CORSIA’s offsetting requirements to ensure uniformity. Therefore applying a civil penalty of £100 ($130) for each CORSIA EEU that an aeroplane operator fails to cancel on time, as well as other non-compliance penalties.

The consultation will run until 10 February 2025.

Update 19 December: The Department for Transport has just released a 170-page technical guidance document and also a compliance document on the UK SAF Mandate.

Photo: Heathrow Airport

Christopher Surgenor

Editor

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Like other countries, China’s civil aviation industry faces difficulties in fundamentally changing its aviation energy mix, which is primarily reliant on fossil jet fuel in the short term, and the large-scale application of deep decarbonisation technologies that balance availability and affordability. In the long term, as the most populous developing country, China has a vast potential demand for civil aviation transport, making the energy transition very challenging. However, a Five-Year Plan is underway for the green development of the industry. Against this backdrop is an insistence by China that the transition must be fair and equitable to developing countries, particularly regarding ICAO’s CORSIA scheme. Dr David Ma, an expert in Chinese civil aviation climate policy, analyses China’s current position.

As global climate issues intensify, countries around the world are formulating their own net-zero roadmaps in accordance with their national conditions. In 2020, China officially announced its climate goals of “striving to peak carbon dioxide emissions by 2030 and to achieve carbon neutrality by 2060”, incorporating climate change response as a national strategy.

In the following years, China issued guidelines and action plans at the national level, while key industries and sectors introduced implementation plans. The civil aviation industry, being a high-energy-consuming and high-emission sector, is one of the key areas that needs focused attention and improvement to achieve China’s “carbon peaking and carbon neutrality” strategic goals.

To address this, the Civil Aviation Administration of China (CAAC) released the ‘14th Five-Year Plan for Green Development of Civil Aviation’ in 2022, proposing the vision for green development by 2035, including a well-established green low-carbon circular development system, achieving carbon-neutral growth in air transport, and making green civil aviation a distinguished profile in the industry’s international exchanges, positioning China as an important leader in global civil aviation sustainable development.

Meanwhile, at the 41st Assembly Session of International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO) held in 2022, the Chinese delegation expressed differing positions on the climate change resolution and the Carbon Offsetting and Reduction Scheme for International Aviation (CORSIA) resolution of agenda item 18. They reserved their stance on the global international aviation 2020 carbon-neutral growth target, the 2050 net-zero carbon target for global international aviation, and the emission reduction mechanisms formed based on these targets, specifically on Articles 6, 7, 9, 17 of the climate change resolution, and the entire text of resolution 18/1 on CORSIA.

The delegation submitted a written reservation to the Secretariat after the meeting, stating they would decide whether and when to withdraw the reservation based on the progress of feasibility analysis of the above targets, the resolution of CORSIA fairness issues and the development of assistance mechanisms for developing countries.

Why does the stance of China’s civil aviation industry on climate change (mainly CORSIA) differ domestically and internationally?

International aviation emissions reduction is an integral part of global climate governance and should adhere to the fundamental principles of global climate governance, particularly the principles of common but differentiated responsibilities, equity and respective capabilities established by the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) and its Paris Agreement. It should align with the consensus on global climate governance models, allowing countries to independently choose mid-to-long-term goals and implementation pathways best suited to their national conditions.

The historical cumulative emissions of developed countries over nearly 200 years of uncontrolled industrialisation are the primary cause of current climate change. Developed countries have international obligations under the UNFCCC to significantly reduce greenhouse gas emissions ahead of developing and emerging market countries and to provide sufficient financial, technical and capacity-building assistance to developing countries.

China’s CORSIA position

In its working paper A41-WP/468 submitted to ICAO’s 41st Assembly, China explained its proposal to implement CORSIA through Nationally Determined Plans to Implement the CORSIA (NDPIC) and to establish a regular review method for CORSIA (see Figure 1 below). The document argues that to avoid any market distortions caused by CORSIA and to enhance the effectiveness of its implementation, a framework for a NPDIC should be established. This would allow each country to determine its own implementation rules and frameworks, subject to technical review by ICAO. Regarding regular reviews of CORSIA, the document proposes the establishment of a CORSIA Review Working Group, which would develop a set of evaluation metrics based on the guidelines for designing and implementing market-based measures (MBMs) provided in the appendix to resolution A40-18.

Figure 1: Framework of the Nationally Determined Plans To Implement The CORSIA (NDPIC) proposed by China

In working paper A41-WP/469, China elaborated on its stance and suggestions regarding the targets and measures for international aviation carbon emissions reduction. The document contends that the current CORSIA implementation plan and standards, which are based on ICAO’s goal of carbon-neutral growth starting from 2020 (CNG2020), do not conform to international law and the basic principles of global climate governance. It argues that if developed countries do not fulfil their international obligations under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) through ICAO, developing countries will be deprived of fair development opportunities. The specific points are as follows:

In contrast to its stance at ICAO, China is cautiously advancing the implementation of market mechanisms domestically. The Civil Aviation Administration of China (CAAC) proposed in its Five-Year Plan in 2022 to “coordinate the construction of domestic and international carbon markets, and promote the establishment of a market-based carbon reduction mechanism for aviation activities.”

China actively promoting SAF

In contrast to CORSIA, China actively promotes SAF. In working paper A41-WP/468, China proposed that “countries refer to relevant ICAO standards or guidelines to determine sustainable aviation fuels and/or low-carbon aviation fuels recognised by their governments.” The Five-Year Plan aims to “promote breakthroughs in the commercial application of sustainable aviation fuels, striving to achieve an annual consumption of more than 20,000 tonnes of sustainable aviation fuels by 2025,” and targets a cumulative SAF consumption of 50,000 tonnes from 2020 to 2025.

It defines SAF as “aviation fuels that meet aviation airworthiness standards and sustainability evaluation standards for aviation fuels.” At the project level, it proposes to accelerate the establishment of a sustainable aviation fuel certification system and fully promote the construction of an airworthiness certification system for sustainable aviation fuels. It aims to conduct regular application demonstrations of sustainable aviation fuels, pilot blended supply models of sustainable aviation fuels at airports with an annual passenger throughput of more than 5 million in regions such as Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei, Yangtze River Delta, Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area, Chengdu, Chongqing and Hainan, and support related airports in accelerating the construction of supporting infrastructure.

The latest news is that the CAAC has identified SAF, the carbon market and efficiency improvements as the three main directions for the green transition of civil aviation in the next five years (2025-2030).

The inconsistency between China’s domestic actions and international commitments on civil aviation’s climate change stance can be found in the Five-Year Plan. It pledges to: “Adhere to independent emission reduction actions, undertake emission reduction responsibilities commensurate with China’s national conditions, the development stage of civil aviation and its capabilities. Fully participate in the global governance process for sustainable development of international civil aviation, uphold the correct view of justice and interests, follow the principles of equity, common but differentiated responsibilities and respective capabilities, strengthen the application of international law, advocate for the establishment of a new international civil aviation emission reduction order with wide participation, independent contributions, mutual learning and benefit sharing, propose more Chinese solutions, promote a balance of obligations and rights, and demonstrate China’s image as a responsible major country.”

From this, several key points can be summarised:

■ Independent emission reductions and independent contributions.
■ The principle of equity and the extension to the principle of common but differentiated responsibilities and respective capabilities.
■ The ‘Chinese solution’.

Accelerating the energy transition

To achieve the goals of “carbon peaking and carbon neutrality”, China’s energy industry is steadfastly accelerating the energy transition, shifting the primary energy source from fossil fuels to non-fossil fuels. As a hard-to-abate sector, the civil aviation industry must make significant adjustments based on China’s macro situation to overcome resource and environmental constraints.

According to roadmaps by IATA, carbon emissions need to be reduced by 1.8 billion tonnes by 2050, with 65% of the emissions reduced through SAF, 13% through new engine propulsion technologies (such as hydrogen), 3% through efficiency improvements and the remainder through carbon capture and storage (11%) and offsets (8%). These measures are reflected in the Five-Year Plan.

Chinese civil aviation has positioned the energy transition, led by SAF, as a crucial node in fostering “new quality productivity” in the latest round of technological and industrial transformation, to achieve a new phase of high-quality development in civil aviation. This also demonstrates the significant role of Chinese civil aviation in building a community with a shared future for mankind. Therefore, China is very proactive and efficient in promoting SAF and other emission reduction measures, recognising that the issue is no longer whether to do it, but how to do it and how to do it well.

In terms of specific actions, due to the differences in national conditions and development stages compared to developed countries in advanced countries and the significant growth needed in the civil aviation transport market in the future, along with the two binding carbon targets of 2030 and 2060 set by the state, China has chosen more pragmatic independent actions, including emission reduction targets and measures. Chinese civil aviation’s vision is that every country should actively contribute to combating climate change but should make independent decisions based on their circumstances, rather than a one-size-fits-all approach.

Principle of equity

In its submitted position papers, China does not oppose the market mechanism of CORSIA, as it has already initiated a national emissions trading system, with civil aviation soon to be included. What Chinese civil aviation disputes is the lack of the principle of equity in CORSIA’s resolution and mechanism design. They often use this metaphor: requiring a growing teenager to diet along with an overweight adult is unfair.

The principle of ‘equity’ emphasises that the responsibilities and measures for emission reductions should consider the historical emissions, economic development levels and emission reduction capabilities of different countries. Developed countries that have competed industrialisation, having accumulated significant historical emissions during their industrialisation process, should bear greater emission reduction responsibilities and provide more financial and technological support. Meanwhile, developing countries need to gradually increase their emission reduction efforts based on their capabilities, promoting sustainable development.

Only on the basis of equity can countries achieve common but differentiated responsibilities and jointly address the severe challenge of global warming. An equitable emission reduction scheme not only promotes international cooperation but also ensures the well-being and environmental sustainability of people worldwide. This climate change principle contrasts with the ‘non-discrimination’ principle of commercial operations in international aviation. However, many developing countries, represented by China, unanimously demand that ICAO reflects the principle of equity in its emission reduction mechanisms.

Unfortunately, only textual confirmation is provided, and it is not reflected in the CORSIA mechanism design. If the climate change principle and aviation operation principle cannot be balanced within the ICAO framework, discrepancies in any emission reduction negotiations and discussions will persist.

China’s anticipated stance at ICAO’s next Assembly

At the ICAO 42nd Assembly in September 2025, China is expected to maintain its established stance, reiterating concerns regarding CORSIA, the implementation paths and standards associated with it, and the 2050 global international aviation carbon-neutrality goal. China believes these targets and pathways are inherently unfair and disadvantageous to developing countries.

Furthermore, because there is currently no intersection between ICAO’s work path and China’s, and with China effectively and confidently taking independent climate actions and involving its national ETS, China will persist with its established stance. The Chinese civil aviation sector will align with the national targets of “achieving carbon peaking by 2030 and carbon neutrality by 2060”, and will not prematurely declare that the aviation industry will achieve carbon neutrality ahead of schedule. Consequently, China will, to a large extent, not join CORSIA’s mandatory implementation phase in 2027.

The ‘Chinese solution’

Chinese civil aviation has made significant progress in responding to climate change and promoting sustainable development. Through the promotion of advanced fuel technologies, optimised route designs and enhanced air traffic management efficiency, China has significantly reduced carbon emissions. Additionally, Chinese civil aviation actively participates in international emission reduction initiatives, sharing experiences with global aviation organisations and counterparts to jointly address global climate challenges. With this series of emission reduction plans, Chinese civil aviation not only demonstrates a firm commitment to reducing carbon dioxide emissions but also strives to achieve significant results through practical actions. These efforts have enabled Chinese civil aviation to confidently push the ‘Chinese solution’, contributing wisdom and strength to the sustainable development of the global aviation industry.

China’s confidence in promoting the ‘Chinese solution’ includes not only technological innovation and operational efficiency improvement but also policy support and international cooperation. Through solid emission reduction actions and comprehensive emission reduction plans, China aims to establish a good international image and demonstrate its responsibility as a major country.

The introduction of the ‘Chinese solution’ will provide valuable experience and a model for the green transition of the global aviation industry, contributing to achieving global carbon neutrality targets. The solution will not only consider ICAO’s resolutions but also reflect its domestic climate change initiative actions, especially as the civil aviation industry is about to be included in the national ETS, which will significantly advance the deployment of CORSIA and SAF, a prospect worth looking forward to.

Photo (H. Goussé, Airbus): Air China A350-900

About the author

David Ma

Dr Xiangshan (David) Ma, who has long worked in China’s civil aviation industry, has been involved in tackling climate change and has experienced the historical transition of China’s civil aviation from energy conservation and emission reduction to carbon neutrality. After leaving the civil aviation industry, he has worked with the Global CCS Institute, Energy Foundation China, GIZ, and FutureCoal (formerly World Coal Association) on CCU/S and energy transition. Currently, he serves as an independent consultant on energy transition and climate change. He can be contacted at maxiangshan.2010@tsinghua.org.cn.

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Views expressed in Commentary op-ed articles do not necessarily represent those of GreenAir.

Investment in scaling up global production of renewable fuels in the pursuit of the aviation industry’s Net Zero emissions target was at the forefront of discussions at this year’s Aviation Carbon conference in London. With Europe introducing from January sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) blending mandates, as well as monitoring requirements on aircraft non-CO2 impacts, industry concerns were raised over the complexity and cost of new regulations facing airlines. IATA’s SVP Sustainability and Chief Economist, Marie Owens Thomsen, criticised fossil fuel subsidies and the lack of investment by oil majors in the energy transition. Outcomes from the recent COP29, which have positive implications for ICAO’s CORSIA carbon scheme, and raising finance for SAF development, were central to a speech by the UN agency’s Secretary General, Juan Carlos Salazar.

As noted by Abdul Wahab Teffaha, Secretary General of the Arab Air Carriers Association during Aviation Carbon’s opening panel, one of the bugbears of airline associations is the prospect of a proliferation of regional mandates and schemes on the use of SAF by airlines. For example, he pointed to the EU’s and the UK’s SAF blending mandates that come into force from January 2025. The resulting “patchwork” would lead to an increase in costs and complexity for airlines, argued Teffaha.

Speaking to GreenAir after his speech, Salazar said that ICAO respects the sovereignty of any region if they chose to create their own schemes and regulations but stressed that the clear mandate given to ICAO was to address aviation’s carbon emissions at a global level and this resulted in CORSIA. “It is the only way for the international community to address CO2 emissions,” he noted.

For Salazar, the work being done by ICAO on aviation emissions is “a very solid basis to achieve our goal of net zero emissions by 2050…it is the way forward,” he said. “ICAO is steadily implementing CORSIA, and we are now moving from the voluntary to the mandatory phase. We are confident that the international community will continue its steady work on CORSIA and emission reduction policies as we create a very solid framework for the further advancement of the LTAG.”

As Salazar reminded delegates: “The landmark adoption of a long-term global aspirational goal (LTAG) of net-zero carbon emissions by 2050 during the 41st Session of the ICAO Assembly in 2022 settled an ambitious target for our industry. This goal recognises the urgent need to address climate change while acknowledging the vital role of aviation in global development.”

In addition, he added: “The success of the Third ICAO Conference on Aviation and Alternative Fuels held last year in Dubai, the CAAF/3, with its adoption of a Global Framework for SAF, Lower Carbon Aviation Fuels (LCAF),and Cleaner Energies, marked another significant step forward, setting out four key building blocks: Policy and planning; Regulatory framework; Implementation support; and Financing.

“The global target to achieve a 5% CO2 emissions reduction by 2030 through the use of SAF, LCAF and cleaner energies is also an ambitious, but achievable target with concerted effort. And the recently approved roadmap by the ICAO Council will guide our implementation activities, starting with the allocation of financial and human resources,” noted Salazar.

Obtaining the huge sums needed to develop a SAF industry was a constant theme during Aviation Carbon. According to Salazar: “Financing will be paramount for achieving our collective goals for a net zero future, this was the central focus of the discussions at COP29 last week.” This year’s UN climate change conference, COP29, took place the week prior to Aviation Carbon in Baku, Azerbaijan.

“The clean energy transition will require substantial financing. I am pleased to share that the ICAO Finvest Hub is well under development and our ambition is that it will be a crucial platform to facilitate investment partnerships, particularly for countries and regions that do not yet have SAF production capabilities,” explained Salazar.

“Our steady progress with the Finvest Hub is evidenced by our recent agreement with the International Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA). This co-operation, signed at the G20 Energy Ministerial meetings in Brazil last month, will significantly boost financing opportunities for sustainable aviation fuels and other cleaner aviation energy projects.

“The ICAO Finvest Hub will connect aviation decarbonisation projects with potential public and private investors, and beyond this matchmaking function, its value will lie in the collaboration between ICAO and financial institutions to fund projects,” said Salazar.

“The Finvest Hub is also an integral part of ICAO’s capacity-building and implementation support activities. More than 200 States and organisations are now part of ICAO’s Assistance, Capacity Building, and Training programme for SAF, known as ACT-SAF. This initiative provides crucial support for SAF development and deployment, offering training, feasibility studies, business implementation reports, support for SAF certification and policy development, and implementation of specific SAF projects for States,” Salazar told delegates.

“As we speak, more than 20 SAF feasibility studies and business implementation reports are under development. ICAO has a pivotal role in providing a harmonised, independent and robust regulatory framework for the environmental certification of cleaner aviation energies.

“I am pleased to inform you that currently 48 feedstocks are recognised under CORSIA. As States prepare their national policies for the aviation clean energy transition, adhering to this framework will ensure a level playing field for considering the environmental benefits of such fuels.

“Additionally, CORSIA continues as a crucial element in our basket of measures to reduce aviation’s carbon footprint.,” said Salazar. “Since 2019, all 193 ICAO member states are implementing the scheme’s monitoring, reporting and verification system. In addition, I’m delighted to acknowledge that 129 member states have confirmed their voluntary participation in the scheme subject to offsetting requirements in 2025, and we want more states to participate in future years.

“At its last session, the ICAO Council approved four additional programmes as eligible for CORSIA, ensuring that sufficient emissions units could be available for use in the scheme’s first phase,” said Salazar. The buying and selling of eligible emissions units through the carbon market is a crucial part of the functioning of CORSIA, but their availability has been limited up until now.

On this topic Salazar added: “The recent adoption of Article 6 of the Paris agreement at COP29 provides additional clarity in the way CORSIA eligible units can be authorised and cancelled, ensuring no double counting and stability for the voluntary carbon markets.”

Little control over fuel costs

IATA’s Marie Owens Thomsen, offering the airline perspective at Aviation Carbon, mused that as “complete price-takers” to the fuel suppliers, airlines have little control over what represents some 30% of their total costs. “The fantasy I harbour is that airlines can progressively take control over our own destiny and in-source more of their fuel supply,” she said. Her point was partly intellectual, but investing in jet fuel production is something various carriers are believed to be interested in.

She also noted that because aviation only takes 8% of global refined fossil fuel capacity, “the oil companies don’t need us for their profit optimisation.”

The health of the global economy, despite geo-political turmoil in the Middle East and war in Ukraine, is “strikingly stable”. With growth of 3.2% over the past two years and similar forecast into 2025 the economic backdrop is “super healthy”. This economic growth has seen oil prices dropping. “Anything under $80 a barrel is supportive of the global economy,” she noted.

However, Owens Thomsen questioned if today’s relatively low oil prices disincentivise investment in the move to renewable energy. They discourage the oil majors, she said, which have seen their stock prices rise on the back of lower oil prices, from investing in the energy transition. At the same time, lower oil prices have seen the stock prices of renewable energy industries “tank”.

“COP29 showed that the energy transition is a global problem. People need to understand that aviation is not a beast to be singled out,” she stated. “The real task is to switch from fossil fuels to renewable energies and we need to make money flow to the renewable energy industry. Imagine a world with ample energy supply that is cheap and renewable.”

One of the frequent questions at the two-day conference was whether the fossil fuel industry is investing enough in the energy transition. The answer was often it is not, mainly because it is not in its interests today to do so.

Owens Thomsen pointed to one of the impediments she believes is holding things back: the multi-billion-dollar subsidies given to the fossil fuel industry. “One of the discussions I struggle most to have is a conversation on fossil fuel subsidies,” she said.

This year’s Aviation Carbon 2024, co-organised by GreenAir, attracted a record 450 delegates from around 70 countries.

Photo (Shai Dolev): ICAO Secretary General Juan Carlos Salazar delivers the closing speech at Aviation Carbon 2024

Mark Pilling

Contributing Editor

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The International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO) has signed an agreement with the International Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA) to boost financing opportunities for sustainable aviation fuels and other cleaner aviation energy projects. The Memorandum of Cooperation was signed at the recent G20 Energy Ministerial meeting in Brazil and will allow the exploration of pathways to operationalise the ICAO Finvest Hub by facilitating the identification of financial resources for scaling up SAF, lower carbon aviation fuels (LCAF) and other cleaner energy solutions. ICAO estimates that around $3.2 trillion in investments will be needed for cleaner aviation fuel production alone if its long-term aspirational goal (LTAG) of net zero emissions from international aviation by 2050 is to be achieved. ICAO is an active participant at the COP29 climate meeting, which starts today in Baku, with the UN agency’s Council President addressing a side event.

While its Assistance, Capacity-building and Training for SAF (ACT-SAF) programme already provides implementation support such as initial feasibility and economic studies, ICAO says it Finvest Hub, launched last year at its CAAF/3 conference in Dubai, is expected to play a crucial role in facilitating the matchmaking between the financing needs of project developers and the financing priorities of States, multilateral development banks and private financers. As well as acting as a platform to connect projects with potential public and private investors, the Finvest Hub aims to facilitate funding from financial institutions, encourage new and additional funding, and support developing countries and States with particular needs.

“The aviation clean energy transition is fundamental to achieving our net-zero long-term aspirational goal, as it has the potential to contribute to the majority of required emissions reductions,” said ICAO Secretary General Juan Carlos Salazar, commenting on the MoC with IRENA, the lead intergovernmental agency for the global energy transformation to a sustainable energy future. “This new cooperation is an opportunity to accelerate the energy transition of the aviation sector worldwide. ICAO is fully committed to supporting the four building blocks needed to achieve this goal – policy and planning, regulatory frameworks, implementation support and financing.”

Responded Francesco La Camera, IRENA Director-General: “Through the IRENA Energy Transition Accelerator Financing (ETAF) Platform, we find climate finance solutions dedicated to advancing the global energy transition by facilitating investment. The transition needs all hands on deck and this cooperation is a clear expression of it.”

The ETAF platform is backed by the United Arab Emirates and alongside financial support from the OPEC Fund, has mobilised commitments amounting to $1.15 billion.

The ICAO Secretary General also met last month with senior representatives from multilateral development banks and other high-level officials in Washington DC to promote the Finvest Hub. The discussions were held alongside annual meetings of the World Bank Group and the International Monetary Fund (IMF). He and ICAO’s Legal Affairs and External Relations Director, Michael Gill, also held direct meetings with officials from the World Bank, IMF, the European Investment Bank, the Inter-American Development Bank and also with industry body Airlines for America.

At a roundtable held during the G20 meeting, Salazar said 330 facilities globally are now producing SAF, with 125 airports distributing it, and more than 50 billion litres of SAF are covered by offtake agreements. He reported over 40 national or regional policies on SAF have been adopted or are under development and over 40 SAF feedstocks are now recognised under ICAO’s CORSIA scheme.

Through the global framework agreed at CAAF/3 (the third ICAO Conference on Aviation and Alternative Fuels) a year ago, ICAO and its member states “will strive to reduce international aviation CO2 emissions by 5% by 2030 through the use of aviation cleaner energies,” said Salazar.

In a keynote at a roundtable held during the Washington DC meetings, Annie Petsonk, Assistant Secretary for Aviation and International Affairs at the US Department of Transportation, reaffirmed US support for the CAAF/3 outcomes.

ICAO is participating in a number of aviation-related events at COP29, which starts today (November 11) in Baku, Azerbaijan, and has a dedicated COP29 page on its website. It is hosting a briefing session today in the SDG Pavilion, ‘Implementing a clean energy transition for international aviation in support of the UN Sustainable Development Goals’, which will include a keynote address by the ICAO Council President, Salvatore Sciacchitano, a premiere presentation of a video on climate change to mark ICAO’s 80^th anniversary and an ACT-SAF signing with an ICAO member state. It will also include an overview of ICAO progress on international aviation and climate change by Jane Hupe, who heads ICAO’s environmental protection and climate activities, and a State perspective on clean energy and capacity building for international aviation by a representative from the host country’s government.

The UN agency will also take part in a number of events on Energy Day (Friday 15 November) and Transport Day (Wednesday 20 November). Its COP29 page will be updated regularly during the two-week course of the climate meeting.

Photo: ICAO

UPDATE: Recording below of the ICAO briefing session in support of the UN Sustainable Development Goals

Christopher Surgenor

Editor

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The governments of 29 countries have agreed at an ICAO-sponsored conference in India to increase cooperation to decarbonise aviation across the Asia-Pacific region. The agreement was one of the key takeaways from the Second Asia Pacific Ministerial Conference on Civil Aviation, which also endorsed commitments to jointly improve aviation security, infrastructure, gender equality and airspace management. “This declaration is a roadmap for the future of aviation in one of the world’s fastest-growing regions,” commented ICAO Council President Salvatore Sciacchitano. The communiqué coincided with the same day announcement of a feasibility study into the production of sustainable aviation fuel in Fiji, one of the smallest APAC nations, but also one of those most at risk from the impacts of climate change. The project is a collaboration between Fiji Airways, the Fiji Sugar Corporation and Lee Enterprises Consulting, with backing from the Asian Development Bank.

The ICAO conference, held in New Delhi, attracted more than 200 delegates from across the region including 12 ministers, eight deputy or vice ministers and 24 directors general responsible for civil aviation, with India’s Minister for Civil Aviation, Shri Kinjarapu Rammohan Naidu elected chairperson of the conference, and Fiji’s deputy PM and Minister for Tourism and Civil Aviation, Viliame Rogoibuli Gavoka elected vice chairperson.

India’s Prime Minister, Narendra Modi, also attended the proclamation of the meeting’s resolutions, designated as the Delhi Declaration. “It demonstrates a collective will to embrace innovation while prioritising safety, security and environmental responsibility,” said Sciacchitano.

Commitments outlined but not detailed in the ICAO announcement included investing in infrastructure to support sustainable growth and emerging aviation concepts, reducing the emissions and other environmental impacts of aviation, and enhancing regional cooperation in air traffic management. As well, to symbolise both cleaner aviation and ICAO’s 80th anniversary, India announced an initiative to plant 80,000 trees.  

Decarbonisation measures, particularly commitments to develop and use SAF are increasing across the Asia-Pacific region, with projects and commitments of various scales in markets including Japan, Singapore, China, Thailand and Australia. But the Fiji SAF study has potential for significantly broader local impact in the Pacific Island nation, which relies heavily on tourism, aviation and sugar cane milling for its livelihood, yet is increasingly at risk from severe weather events and rising sea level.

Backed by funding from the Asian Development Bank, the partnership of the government-controlled Fiji Airways, Fiji Sugar Corporation and Lee Enterprises Consulting will investigate the feasibility of a SAF production and utilisation model in Fiji which combines local agricultural resources and international technical expertise.

The study will explore the possible use of sugar cane and its waste in the local production of ethanol and other energy sources which can be used to develop SAF, and will evaluate the suitability of molasses, sugar, bagasse and biomass as possible feedstocks for the fuel.

In a joint statement, the partners said the project “is poised to position Fiji as a leader in the development, production and use of SAF in the Pacific region, with the potential to showcase a model that can be replicated in other regions.”

It added: “Sugar cane has a significant ability to absorb carbon due to its rapid growth and high biomass production. The CO2 captured during its growth phase contributes to a net reduction in greenhouse gas emissions when the resulting SAF is used in aviation.”

It is also one of the most productive crops in terms of biomass yield produced per hectare of land, providing large volumes of feedstock for use in SAF production, while the crop’s high sugar content can easily be fermented into ethanol, which can then be upgraded to SAF.

Fiji Airways has committed to decarbonising its operations through the use of operational measures, deployment of SAF and other pathways, and recently announced a partnership with US-based Odys Aviation to evaluate that company’s autonomous hybrid-electric freight drones for potential deployment between the nation’s 330 islands.

It has also been accepted as a full member of the oneworld global airline alliance, which has pledged that by 2030, 10% of the fuel used by its member carriers will be SAF.

“This is a landmark project for Fiji and the South Pacific region,” said Peter Seares, the airline’s chief legal and sustainability officer. “The feasibility assessment will lay a foundation  for Fiji’s national airline to meet its sustainability goals while utilising local resources that will help to reinvigorate and transform the domestic sugar industry, create new jobs and improve the lives of Fijians.”

The Fiji Sugar Corporation is the largest sugar milling company in the South Pacific region and a major contributor to the national economy, while Lee Enterprises Consulting (LEC), an international specialist in biofuels and alternative energy, will lead the technological and economic study into transforming sugar-linked waste into alcohol-to-jet SAF via multiple production pathways.

“This collaboration is a testament to the power of partnerships in addressing global challenges such as climate change,” said LEC’s CEO Jason White.  “By bringing together industry leaders and local stakeholders, we are not only advancing the production and use of sustainable aviation fuel but also promoting economic resilience and environmental stewardship in the Pacific.

“LEC has brought together a world-class team of bioenergy industry experts for this project and we are excited to deliver the economic and technical feasibility roadmap for how this important sustainability capability can be realised.”   

In addition to providing funding support and facilitating knowledge transfer between the project partners, the Asian Development Bank will coordinate the project’s implementation, and ensure that all activities meet international sustainability standards and contribute to regional development goals. 

Top photo: Fiji Airways Boeing 737 Max 8 at Canberra

Bottom photo (ICAO): Senior government and ICAO representatives at the Second Asia Pacific Ministerial Conference on Civil Aviation in New Delhi

Tony Harrington

Correspondent

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Global SAF production will be featured at Aviation Carbon 2024

Countries meeting in Dubai for the third Conference on Aviation and Alternative Fuels (CAAF/3) have agreed a global framework to support the clean energy transition of the aviation sector that will be required to achieve its current objective of net zero carbon emissions by 2050. In the new ICAO Global Framework for Sustainable Aviation Fuels (SAF), Lower Carbon Aviation Fuels (LCAF) and other Aviation Cleaner Energies, such as hydrogen and electricity, Member States have agreed a ‘Vision’ to achieve an aspirational global interim goal of a 5% reduction in the carbon intensity of aviation fuel by 2030. The collective goal recognises that some States will be able to move quickly whereas others will take longer and require capacity-building assistance, finance and time to develop the necessary infrastructure. The agreement has been welcomed by industry, which expects the move to lead to supportive government policies and send a strong signal to investors and the traditional energy sector.

Key elements of the Framework agreement reached at CAAF/3 include a collective Vision for the clean energy transition, harmonised regulatory foundations, supporting implementation initiatives and improved access to financing so that, in ICAO parlance, “No country is left behind”.

Commenting on the outcome, ICAO Council President Salvatore Sciacchitano said: “The role of the Framework is to facilitate the scale-up of the development and deployment of SAF, LCAF and other aviation cleaner energies on a global basis, and mainly by providing greater clarity, consistency and predictability to all stakeholders, including those beyond the aviation sector.

“Investors, governments and others all need greater certainty regarding the policies, regulations, implementation support and investments required so that all countries will have an equal opportunity to contribute to, and benefit from, the expansion in the production and use of these fuels and the expected emissions reductions they will lead to.”

Haldane Dodd, Executive Director of the cross-industry Air Transport Action Group said it was another milestone event for the sector, following the adoption at last year’s ICAO Assembly of the Long Term Aspirational Goal of net zero carbon emissions by 2050. He said the agreement would “add another layer of certainty” in the shift towards the replacement of fossil fuels by SAF and unlock the significant capital investment needed, which ICAO estimates at $3.2 trillion.

“Aviation has provided a near-term objective and the global framework,” said Dodd. “Now it is up to the finance community and energy sector to support the necessary infrastructure and start delivering SAF in ever increasing quantities.”

IATA Director General Willie Walsh said the setting of a goal with a shorter 2030 time horizon was ambitious. “To that end, the CAAF/3 agreement signals to the world in no uncertain terms the need for policies that enable real progress. There is no time to lose. IATA now expects governments to urgently put the strongest possible policies in place to unlock the full potential of a global SAF market with an exponential increase in production.”

IATA pointed out that all SAF produced in 2022 had been bought by airlines at an additional cost of $500 million because of the price premium over conventional jet fuel, and yet the availability of SAF was expected to be limited to 0.2% of jet fuel consumption in 2023. Airline forward purchase agreements for SAF are worth around $45 billion in total, well in excess of SAF availability, it said.

“Airlines are ready with open arms to catch the resulting SAF production,” said Marie Owens Thomsen, SVP Sustainability and Chief Economist. “While airlines are at the sharp end of decarbonisation, they cannot bear the burden alone. CAAF/3 has again made it clear that aviation’s decarbonisation will require the wholehearted and united efforts of the entire value chain as we all focus on net zero by 2050. To be perfectly clear, where government money leads, private money will follow. It is absolutely essential that governments play their part, and we will certainly play ours.”

The adopted Global Framework is built across four interconnected building blocks: policy and planning, regulatory frameworks, implementation support and financing. The ‘Vision’ of a collective 5% emissions reduction goal in international aviation (an earlier draft had the goal ranging from 5 to 8 per cent) is to be continually monitored and periodically reviewed through an annual ICAO stocktake and the convening of a CAAF/4 that should take place no later than 2028. ICAO, with the contribution of its technical body CAEP, is required to identify and develop methodologies for monitoring progress.

To ensure environmental integrity, the CORSIA sustainability criteria, sustainability certification and the methodology for the assessment of lifecycle emissions used for CORSIA eligible fuels should be used as the accepted basis for the eligibility of sustainable fuels used in international aviation. With CAEP, the framework requires ICAO to undertake a study of fuel accounting systems for international aviation currently used in the open market, which is to include preliminary exploration of the book-and-claim concept.

The framework requires ICAO to urgently put in place the necessary structure and capability of the proposed ICAO Finvest Hub, through which a platform will be developed to connect aviation decarbonisation projects with potential public and private investors, and collaborate with financial institutions, such as development banks, to create pathways for the funding of projects.

A statement by the UK government, which had convened on the first day of CAAF/3 a meeting of the 62-country International Aviation Climate Ambition Coalition, an initiative it set up at COP26 in 2021, said the compromise agreement would enable countries across the world to develop their own SAF industries, “turning cleaner flying into a reality worldwide”.

Added Aviation Minister Anthony Browne: “While the UK sought to secure greater ambition, this is a significant moment in our path to sustainable flying. The UK remains steadfast in its commitment to decarbonise international aviation. This deal shows that when the world comes together and cooperates, we can bring about real change.”

Photo: ICAO

Christopher Surgenor

Editor

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In what ICAO Council President Salvatore Sciacchitano described as the UN civil aviation agency’s most important event of the year, countries are convening this week in Dubai to agree a global framework on a cleaner energy future for aviation. The purpose of the Conference on Aviation Alternative Fuels (CAAF/3) is to steer policy direction and financing to aid the rapid shift towards new forms of sustainable energy, in particular sustainable aviation fuels, to meet ICAO’s Long Term Aspirational Goal (LTAG) of net zero carbon emissions from international aviation by 2050. Sciacchitano said it would be a massive task that required immediate collective action. SAF production remains largely confined to Europe and the USA but the collective global target will require huge support and investment for energy transition in the developing world. The week-long meeting has been marked with an Emirates A380 demonstration flight with one engine powered by 100% SAF.

“We must urgently scale up the development and deployment of sustainable, lower carbon and other clean energy aviation fuels in order to meet the sustainability expectations of both the world and the stakeholders,” said Sciacchitano in his opening address at CAAF/3. “We have a massive task ahead of us this week as we deliberate on the ICAO Global Framework for aviation’s cleaner energy transition, a key step for the sustainable development of air transport. ICAO’s main priority is the implementation and achievement of LTAG. To do this, we need to take collective action now and CAAF/3 can be instrumental in laying the building blocks in terms of policy and planning, regulatory framework adjustments, implementation support and financing.

“This is also an opportunity for States to demonstrate strong leadership in addressing international aviation emissions just before the UN’s COP28 climate change conference also taking place here in the UAE. A successful, robust and ambitious global framework can only serve to shine a bright spotlight on the shared efforts and commitment to decarbonising our sector. We have a great opportunity to show and communicate to the world that aviation is seriously and strongly committed to decarbonise by 2050.”

In a video address, UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres said aviation was one of the most challenging sectors to decarbonise, “but with innovation and investment, it can be done.”

He added: “A net-zero aviation sector means cleaner energy sources on a global scale. It means economic policies and regulations that can support a just and equitable transition while attracting investors, and it means measures such as carbon pricing, low-carbon fuel standards and subsidies for sustainable aviation fuels. The global framework emerging from this conference is a critical step towards a clean and prosperous future for this vital sector. By moving at jet speed you can speed up the clean energy revolution our world needs.

“With the upcoming COP28, now is the time to turn ambition into concrete action to find ways to deliver on your net zero target and shape a better, cleaner future for all.”

CAAF meetings take place only on a six-year basis, the first held in Brazil in 2009, and CAAF/3 is the culmination of a series of stocktaking and pre-CAAF/3 conferences and consultations to prepare the ground for a ‘2050 ICAO Vision’ for SAF, lower carbon aviation fuels (LCAF) and other aviation cleaner energy sources in order to define a global framework in line with ICAO’s ‘No Country Left Behind’ initiative that takes into account national circumstances and capabilities. SAF, LCAF and other aviation cleaner energies are expected to make the largest contribution towards achieving the LTAG.

The 2050 Vision acknowledges that no single fuel source will be produced at a level necessary to achieve the LTAG and so the framework needs to be flexible and not exclude any particular fuel source, pathway, feedstock or technology that meets the CORSIA eligible fuels criteria, says ICAO.

Since earlier this year, a Small Group for Preparations for CAAF/3, under the Climate and Environment Committee (CEC) of ICAO’s governing Council, has been considering possible CAAF/3 outcomes, including a draft global framework. The framework is built across four interconnected building blocks that need to advance and work together: policy and planning; regulatory frameworks; implementation support; and financing.

Although there has been general convergence on the Vision, some differences remain around aviation cleaner energies and financing, which will be discussed during the conference.

A number of States want to see CAAF/3 emerge with a quantified goal in order to send a political signal of support for sustainable fuels that could unlock private sector investment around the world.

“The reason why investors need this outcome is that it is crucial to assuring the durability of their investments,” US government representative Annie Petsonk said during an opening panel session. “If they are going to make the major investments that allow SAF to be produced in refineries and to develop the required feedstocks and supply chains, they want to see governments are serious about this transition. Through informal consultations I have had already, I am very hopeful that I will be able to communicate a positive outcome to them.”

The US is also supporting the creation of the ICAO Finvest Hub, which aims to act as a facilitating platform to connect projects contributing to the decarbonisation of international aviation, including feedstock and SAF production, with potential public and private investors. A priority of the initiative would be to support developing countries and those with special needs in financing aviation decarbonisation projects. It would also offer technical assistance, capacity building and guidance on the development of legal and policy frameworks.

Industry is also represented at CAAF/3 and has a similar wish list. “There are two key outcomes we would like to see from the conference: a goal for SAF deployment that can provide investment certainty to the finance markets and influence policy actions around the world, and a supportive global framework that will ensure countries everywhere can take advantage of the opportunities to build new energy industries and secure jobs in supplying SAF,” said Haldane Dodd, Executive Director of the cross-industry Air Transport Action Group (ATAG).

ATAG says the transition to SAF is already underway, with policy measures being implemented or discussed in around 40 countries, with $45 billion in forward SAF purchase agreements in place with airlines, operators and corporate partners. Ten facilities are currently producing SAF, it says, but by 2029 over 150 projects in 35 countries are being explored that could be used for SAF production.

“The SAF scale-up has begun,” said Dodd. “Over 10 times more SAF was delivered to airlines in 2022 than in 2019. That pace of development will continue but needs to accelerate significantly to keep in line with the industry’s path to net zero.

“Three things are needed to make the aviation energy transition happen: government policy to support supply and create certainty for demand; financing of the potentially $1.5 trillion in infrastructure capital needed to supply SAF at the scale required; and a serious effort by the traditional energy sector to shift their products from fossil to sustainable fuels. We believe the CAAF/3 meeting can set the scene for these developments and help catalyse the transition in aviation. These are tough decisions and complex challenges, but necessary ones to progress as climate change makes its impacts felt.

“A global framework from CAAF/3 will help capacity building and access to finance so that countries everywhere can build SAF industries of their own. Enormous value can be created in diversifying and democratising energy supply if governments grasp the opportunities ahead of them.”

Added Laurent Donceel, Deputy Managing Director of Airlines for Europe (A4E): “The future of aviation depends on sustainable aviation fuels and it is critical the CAAF/3 meeting produces a global agreement for a net-zero aviation with realistic targets to promote the use of SAF. Global investments in SAF and boosting the energy transition in aviation will create a bounty of jobs and growth around the world.

“Europe and the USA are accelerating down the runway towards a more sustainable future so it’s critically important that the rest of the world keeps up and delivers a truly net zero aviation industry. CAAF/3 is an ideal opportunity to set this in stone.”

Environmental NGOs belonging to the International Coalition on Sustainable Aviation have called on the meeting “to adopt a global aspirational quantified objective for 2050 and an aspirational trajectory that are consistent with the Paris Agreement temperature goals, and that prioritise the environmental and social integrity of alternative fuels.”

Setting the goal, they say, requires adopting, primarily, a metric that focuses on the carbon intensity of alternative fuels on a lifecycle basis, consistent with CORSIA eligible fuels methodology.

“A successful outcome requires focusing on defining an ambitious vision that prioritises the environmental and social integrity of alternative fuels and therefore avoids trading an environmental threat for another,” said a statement presented at CAAF/3. “The focus should always be on quality rather than quantity.”

In addition to a robust sustainability standard, said the NGOs, CAAF/3 should emphasise transparency to ensure alternative fuels are accurately reported and accounted for, with the avoidance of double counting critical for integrity.

The statement notes that whereas the CAAF/2 vision focused solely on sustainable aviation fuels, the scope for CAAF/3 has been expanded to cover not only other cleaner energy sources such as cryogenic hydrogen and electricity, but also lower carbon aviation fuels (LCAF) of fossil origin.

“ICSA believes that while LCAF may have potentially lower carbon emissions on a lifecycle basis, all fuels of fossil origin must, by definition, be regarded as unsustainable. The CAAF/3 Vision should avoid the use of encompassing terms such as ‘sustainable fuels’ and instead use suitable terms such as ‘alternative fuels’.

To coincide with CAAF/3, Emirates this week has become the first airline to operate an A380 demonstration flight using 100% SAF. In a collaboration with Airbus, Engine Alliance, Pratt & Whitney, ENOC, Neste and Virent, the Emirates aircraft took off from Dubai International Airport with one of its four engines powered on 100% SAF. The flight carried four tonnes of SAF, comprised of HEFA-SPK provided by Neste and HDO-SAK (hydro deoxygenated synthetic aromatic kerosene) from Virent. ENOC helped to secure the neat SAF comprised of HEFA-SPK and blended it with SAK at its facility in the airport.

The 100% SAF was used in one Engine Alliance GP7200 engine, while conventional jet fuel was used in the other three engines. The PW980 auxiliary power unit from Pratt & Whitney Canada also ran on 100% SAF. The flight on November 22 was preceded by robust engine testing, with the objective of validating the engine’s capability to run on the specially blended 100% drop-in SAF without affecting its performance or requiring modifications. Ground engine testing took place at the Emirates Engineering Centre in Dubai.

Earlier this year, Emirates completed the first 100% SAF-powered demonstration flight in the region on a GE90-powered Boeing 777-300ER. Shell has supplied Emirates with 315,000 gallons of blended SAF for use at Dubai and the airline currently uplifts SAF in Norway and France. Emirates recently expanded its partnership with Neste for the supply of over 3 million gallons of blended SAF in 2024 and 2025 for flights departing from Amsterdam Schiphol and Singapore Changi airports.

“The growing global demand for lower-emission jet fuel alternatives is there, and the work of producers and suppliers to commercialise SAF and make it available will be critical in the coming years to help Emirates and the wider industry advance our path to lower carbon emissions,” commented Adel Al Redha, COO, Emirates Airline.

Videos of the CAAF/3 proceedings are available on ICAO TV

Top photo: ICAO Council President Salvatore Sciacchitano addresses CAAF/3

Emirates A380 100% SAF demonstration flight:

Christopher Surgenor

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A recent hybrid meeting of high-level representatives at ICAO has led to cautious optimism that the UN agency’s member states could reach a collective agreement at their forthcoming Assembly on a long-term aspirational goal (LTAG) of net zero carbon emissions from international aviation by 2050. In a concluding summary of the meeting (HLM-LTAG) held in Montreal, ICAO and its member states were encouraged to “strive to achieve” the goal in support of the Paris Agreement’s temperature aims, recognising that it should allow for the differing capabilities and circumstances of countries. The meeting’s outcomes will now be considered by ICAO’s governing Council before a resolution can be put forward at the 41st Assembly starting late September. The aviation industry has already adopted a net zero 2050 target and the sector’s Air Transport Action Group described the meeting as a significant step forward. A senior US official close to the negotiations said it was a positive development in the lead up to the Assembly. However, some important countries remain opposed to the goal with China saying at the end of the meeting it was “completely dissatisfied” with the outcome.

ICAO has been studying the “feasibility” of a LTAG since requested to do so by member states in 2010, which resulted in a major report by the Council’s environmental technical committee (CAEP) published in March, following two years of work by 280 experts that covered long-term trends, the emissions reduction potential of new technologies and fuels, as well as the cost implications (see article). Outside its remit were recommendations of what the goal should be or how residual emissions – those emissions not reduced by in-sector means – should be accounted for in order to reach net zero.

The HLM-LTAG, with representatives attending in-person or virtually from 104 member states and 15 international organisations, considered inputs from states and international organisations covering the different scenarios and options for in-sector CO2 reductions, based on the latest technological innovations, new types of aircraft and operations, and an increased global production capability for sustainable aviation fuels. No discussions took place on market-based measures, such as ICAO’s CORSIA out-of-sector carbon offsetting scheme, even though under the CAEP report’s most ambitious scenario, the net zero by 2050 goal cannot be achieved by in-sector emissions reductions alone.

A major challenge that has faced negotiators at ICAO over many years on climate goals is reconciling differences between developed and developing countries over the governing principles and responsibilities for dealing with emissions from international aviation. Countries like China, India and Russia have objected to ICAO’s mid-term goal of carbon neutral growth and have so far not joined CORSIA’s voluntary phases. China has always contended the UN climate principle of common but differentiated responsibilities and respective capabilities (CBDR) must take precedence over the non-discrimination and equal treatment principle set out in the Chicago Convention that underpins ICAO.

“CBDR is the cornerstone for all countries to establish wide international cooperation to address climate change,” said a working paper (WP/23) submitted by China for the HLM-LTAG. “ICAO’s efforts to conduct a feasibility analysis of any proposed LTAGs shall be aligned with the principle of CBDR.” Another paper submitted by China, together with India, Russian Federation and Saudi Arabia, said: “The developed nations must take [the] immediate lead in reducing carbon emissions and provide adequate implementation assistance to others; and recommend that ICAO as part of LTAG should make building assistance mechanisms [a] priority, and provide developing countries with adequate technical, funding and capacity-building, so as to strengthen the efforts of developing countries to address international aviation and climate change.”

While the concluding document from the HLM-LTAG specifically mentions a long-term aspirational goal of net zero carbon emissions by 2050, each state “is urged to contribute to achieving the goal in a socially, economically and environmentally sustainable manner and in accordance with national circumstances” and “contribute to the LTAG” within its own national timeframe. China has indicated a target of achieving carbon neutrality “before” 2060 and India has pledged to reach it by 2070.

Recognising that the largest potential impact on reducing aviation in-sector CO2 emissions will come from fuel-related measures, ICAO and its members states are encouraged to work with industry on new aircraft technologies and implementing enhanced air and ground operations, as well as with relevant stakeholders on research, development and deployment of sustainable aviation fuels, lower carbon aviation fuels and other cleaner energy sources for aviation. The document acknowledges substantial financial investments will be required and invites ICAO “to further consider the establishment of a climate finance initiative or funding mechanism under ICAO, while addressing the possible financial, institutional and legal challenges, and report to the 42nd Session [in 2025] of the ICAO Assembly.”

A working paper submitted by the EU and other ECAC states suggested the ICAO Voluntary Environment Fund “should be more visible” and states be encouraged to contribute to it, “whilst earmarking contributions for specific ICAO activities on LTAG”. A working paper presented by Brazil, India, Nigeria, Russian Federation and Sudan, and supported by some Latin American countries, recommended the establishment of a Multilateral Fund for Sustainable Aviation under the control of ICAO that would provide public and private stakeholders in developing countries with financing, capacity-building and technology transfer to help achieve an LTAG. An information paper from Australia, Costa Rica and the United Kingdom proposed the establishment of a Climate Finance Initiative, led by ICAO “as a trusted facilitator”, to bring states, industry, finance institutions and the investment community together to support, in particular, the most vulnerable developing states to access private sector financing.

ICAO set up a well-received programme to help developing states with their introduction of the CORSIA carbon offsetting scheme, called the Assistance, Capacity-building and Training for CORSIA (ACT-CORSIA). In June it established a similar programme for sustainable aviation fuels (ACT-SAF) and it is now recommended by the HLM to be extended to add support for the implementation of other emissions reduction measures in an ACT-LTAG programme. “Additionally, ICAO is encouraged to promote the voluntary transfer of technology, in particular for developing countries and states having particular needs, to enable them to adapt to cutting-edge technology and enhance their contribution to achieve the LTAG,” said the HLM-LTAG concluding text.

The outcome, described as a compromise by a number of states participating, was welcomed by the cross-industry Air Transport Action Group (ATAG), which has been urging ICAO states to adopt an LTAG at their 41st Assembly in line with the sector’s own established net zero by 2050 goal. It said a globally-aligned policy environment would bring stability of direction and certainty to bring about needed investments in new fuels and decarbonisation technologies.

“These negotiations are challenging as the different approaches of states are explored. But the effort to come together around a common goal of net zero has been encouraging and lays the groundwork for fruitful discussions at the Assembly,” said ATAG’s Executive Director, Haldane Dodd.

“Aviation decarbonisation is a huge challenge that needs investment and innovation from the industry, but also a coordinated approach with ICAO and its member states to set the appropriate policy frameworks required for success.”

In closing remarks to the four-day HLM-LTAG meeting, ICAO Secretary General Juan Carlos Salazar said: “Recovering from the effects of the pandemic and combatting climate change go hand-in-hand. As a global sector, aviation has a golden opportunity to show leadership as we ‘build back better’, aiming towards a sustainable decarbonised future.”

A full report of the meeting is available here. The ICAO Assembly runs from 27 September to 7 October.

Top photo: ICAO building

Bottom photo (ICAO): Closing session of HLM-LTAG

A wide array of sustainability storylines topped the agenda at IATA’s 78th AGM with the prospect in sight of a sustainable aviation fuels (SAF) production “tipping point”, the necessity of achieving a Long-term Aspirational Goal (LTAG) on emissions from international aviation at the ICAO Assembly in late September, and the risk of CORSIA being derailed, reports Mark Pilling from Doha. The meeting came only eight months after last year’s AGM, which approved the resolution for the global air transport industry to achieve net zero carbon emissions by 2050, described as a “momentous decision” by IATA SVP Environment & Sustainability Sebastian Mikosz. Airlines are more committed than ever on achieving net zero, he said, but needed an agreement on an LTAG. IATA Director General Willie Walsh said failure by states at the Assembly or a “polite agreement to kick the can down the road” would be “unacceptable outcomes”. As was demonstrated at the AGM, the industry’s net zero goal has resulted in a huge focus on SAF in order, according to IATA’s roadmap, to fulfil aviation’s net zero commitment.

Current estimates are for SAF to account for 65% of aviation’s carbon mitigation in 2050. That would require an annual production capacity of 449 billion litres. Investments are in place to expand SAF annual production from the current 125 million litres to 5 billion by 2025. IATA’s tracking of current SAF projects indicates that production could reach 30 billion litres by 2030, said Mikosz. There are at least 10 SAF plants coming online by 2025, each with capacity of 5 billion litres annually, a hike of 50 times what was available in 2021.

In Doha, IATA called for governments to urgently put in place large-scale incentives to rapidly expand the use of SAF. “Governments don’t need to invent a playbook. Incentives to transition electricity production to renewable sources like solar or wind worked,” said Willie Walsh, IATA’s Director General. “As a result, clean energy solutions are now cheap and widely available. Though still far from where we need to be, it would be a clear tipping point towards our net zero ambition of ample SAF quantities at affordable prices.”

Mikosz contrasted the governmental policies that promote SAF, with IATA favouring the US approach of giving industry incentives or tax credits whereas the European Union is going down the mandate route. The latter policy is less favourable because “it puts pressure on costs but not pressure on production,” believes Mikosz. “The SAF mandate in the EU is not the most efficient and can dilute environmental benefits.”

In the US, which is setting an example for others to follow, SAF production is expected to reach 11 billion litres in 2030 on the back of heavy government incentives, said IATA. Europe, on the other hand, is the example not to follow, it argues. “Under its Fit for 55 initiative, the EU is planning to mandate airlines uplift 5% SAF at every European airport by 2030. Decentralising production will delay the development of economies of scale. And forcing the land transport of SAF will reduce the environmental benefit of using SAF,” said the association.

At the event’s closing press conference, Walsh also called on the energy giants to step up further. “There is plenty of room for them to do a much better job in relation to sustainable fuels. Progress to date is measured in words rather than actions.” Akbar Al Baker, Qatar Airways Chief Executive and AGM host, added: “The pressure on these companies to move to SAF will be immense; they will have no option but to turn to it.”

According to Walsh: “The bottom line is that an opportunity is here. This is a business opportunity. It is a business opportunity for countries. You no longer need to have oil in the ground to produce fuel. If the oil majors don’t do it, they will no longer be the only people [in the fuel supply market].”

Asked about his airline’s views on SAF, Al Baker said it had been working for a decade with the Qatar University on SAF research. “The results are very positive and once they master the process, they will be able to produce a large amount of SAF.” He noted that some shippers are already asking his airline if it is using SAF, and are willing to buy it if available. However, on today’s price premium for SAF, Al Baker is clear: “I have no problem to pay 20% more [for SAF] to fuel my aircraft but I won’t pay 4-5 times more.” He is also unenthusiastic on deals that are ambiguous about what the price will be on delivery of SAF. “How can you have a contract when you don’t know how much they are going to charge you?” he questioned.

Whichever policy approach is better for incentivising its production, “as an industry we have created a demand point,” said Mikosz. By 2025, IATA estimates there will be at least $30 billion in forward purchase agreements for SAF, up from the $17 billion to be made this year. By 2025 there will have been 2 million flights where SAF will have been used, forecasts the industry body, up from 450,000 in 2022. By 2025, IATA also believes there will be 11 technical pathways approved for SAF production, up from the seven approved today.

However, there is a significant geographic disparity on SAF production plans, with plants coming on stream in Europe, North America, Singapore and China, but none in Africa or the Middle East, and only one in Latin America. This shows why a book-and-claim system is important, so airlines anywhere can buy and achieve the benefit of SAF, said Mikosz.

IATA also gave more detail on the need for offsetting and carbon capture to meet net zero by 2050. The use of Carbon Capture, Utilisation and Storage (CCUS) was called out more specifically by IATA at Doha. “We consider CCUS as part of the offsetting approach,” said Mikosz. “Offsets are a gap filler and there is no plan that doesn’t have a bit of offsets in it to reach net zero by 2050,” with up to 19% coming from these two sources. However, he added, “they will play a diminishing role in the industry strategy as other technologies develop.”

As with SAF, airlines are creating a demand signal for CCUS, a solution that removes carbon from the atmosphere and has a major advantage in that it is one of the components needed to manufacture power-to-liquid eKerosene, said Mikosz.

IATA used the AGM to urge governments to adopt a Long-term Aspirational Goal (LTAG) to decarbonise aviation “aligned with industry commitments” at the 41st ICAO Assembly starting in late September. Mikosz indicated he would be “extremely disappointed” if ICAO did not agree an LTAG as its own technical studies and scenario planning showed how crucial it is to decarbonise air transport and spell out the cost.

IATA has confidence that it will be adopted but whether it is aligned with the industry’s 2050 target is another question. However, Mikosz said IATA’s 2050 position would not change, with no ‘plan B’ in place if an LTAG is not agreed, leaving only the option to try again at the next Assembly in three years’ time.

At the AGM in Boston last October, China’s airlines voted against the industry target, arguing for a later date. Asked if there had been any rethink on the part of Chinese carriers towards IATA’s 2050 target since then, Mikosz confirmed Chinese airline chiefs had clarified to the IATA board in Doha that the position had not changed, and that they are adhering to China’s national policy of a 2060 decarbonisation date. One possibility at the ICAO Assembly is that states adopt different timetables, giving some states more time to reach net zero. However, said Mikosz, differentiated timelines “would not make me happy.”

ICAO’s carbon offsetting scheme CORSIA was another significant talking point in Doha. Despite its critics, “for our industry, CORSIA is a huge success because it is the only market-based measure agreed by an industrial sector to deal globally with emissions,” said Mikosz.

However, as Walsh said in his report to the AGM: “CORSIA is in danger. Governments are split on the baseline. It was meant to be the average of international emissions for 2019 and 2020. When CORSIA was agreed in 2016 nobody could have imagined that governments would stop airlines from flying for much of 2020,“ said Walsh. “After agreeing to remedy this by using only 2019 – the industry’s position – several governments now want to penalise us for not flying and have proposed to revert to the 2019-2020 average, irrespective of inequities.  

“On top of this, not all governments respect CORSIA as the single economic measure for international aviation that it was meant to be,” said Walsh. “The most worrying is the EU. Its parliament voted to apply its ETS [Emissions Trading System] on top of CORSIA, forgetting that the world unanimously rejected this extra-territorial ambition in 2012. We need a successful, fair and effective CORSIA. Our proposal is to maintain a 2019 baseline. If states want to be more ambitious, and they should, incentivising SAF is the way to go.”

Mikosz acknowledged that states have differing views on CORSIA and how much they should pay to decarbonise. For instance, countries like Brazil and India are concerned that as CORSIA moves into the mandatory phase of paying for offsets from 2027 it could penalise the growth of their air transport industries. “The biggest challenge is having a global system, but one that does not impact negatively the growth of the market,” he said.

In September, all eyes will be on the ICAO Assembly to see whether an LTAG can be agreed and how CORSIA will change. These are complex and challenging times for an industry seeking state backing and a global approach to sustainability. Walsh observed during his address: “This approach is in the DNA of aviation. It is how we tackled noise and improved safety. Achieving net zero by 2050 is as critical. Failure to agree on a long-term aspirational goal, or a polite agreement that kicks the can down the road, would be unacceptable outcomes.”

Photo: Sebastian Mikosz, IATA’s SVP Environment & Sustainability

Mark Pilling

GreenAir Contributing Editor

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Annual residual CO2 emissions from international aviation – those emissions that remain after in-sector reduction efforts – could range from 200 million tonnes (Mt) to 900 Mt by 2050, according to a major study by ICAO’s Committee on Aviation Environmental Protection (CAEP). The completed report provides the results of two years of technical work by 280 experts from around the world to explore the feasibility of a long-term global aspirational goal (LTAG) for international civil aviation CO2 emission reductions. Described as the most comprehensive and complex study of its kind, the analysis provides long-term trends and emissions reduction opportunities from operations, new aircraft technologies and future fuels and energy sources against a backdrop of traffic demand forecast scenarios and the climate science. The results show a heavy reliance on sustainable fuels for the most optimistic outcome on in-sector reductions. A decision on whether to adopt a long-term emissions reduction goal is expected to be taken at ICAO’s next triennial Assembly that starts in late September.

The report was adopted “unanimously” at the CAEP/12 meeting in February, according to CAEP Chairperson Urs Ziegler. Its main findings have been presented in an informal online briefing to State members of ICAO’s governing Council. In moves to become a more open and transparent organisation, the briefing, which included initial reactions and questions from Council members about the findings, has been made available publicly on ICAO TV.

ICAO adopted a resolution at its 37th Assembly in 2010 requesting the Council to explore the feasibility of a long-term goal for international aviation “through conducting detailed studies assessing the attainability and impacts of any goals proposed, including the impact on growth as well as costs in all countries, especially developing countries …”. In each subsequent Assembly climate resolution, the Council has been requested to continue the work on the goal’s feasibility.

Briefing Council members on the new report, Ziegler said: “I would like to underline that CAEP stands unanimously behind it and it is important CAEP noted no further work was needed in this area as it would not bring any fundamentally new insights or results that would go beyond what has already been evaluated. There are many other reports out there but none has gone as deep as our experts have done in the last two years. Everything we have proposed in this report is both feasible and attainable.”

A feature of the CAEP studies is that its forecast scenarios on air traffic and fleet evolution have been extended beyond 2050 to 2070. The results have been calibrated against the IPCC’s AR6 scientific report last year on the allowed global CO2 emissions for limiting the global mean temperature increase to 1.5°C or 2°C.

The CAEP LTAG Task Group developed a methodology involving three integrated scenarios – IS1, IS2 and IS3 – to represent a low, mid and high degree of aspiration related to readiness and attainability against a baseline (IS0). The least ambitious scenario (IS1) shows residual emissions of around 950 MtCO2 in 2050 (around 160% of 2019 CO2 emissions} from international aviation, after a total reduction of 39% in 2050 against the baseline as a result of in-sector incremental improvements in technologies (-20%) and operations (-4%), plus new fuels (-15%). The mid ‘increased/further ambition’ scenario (IS2) shows around 495 MtCO2 in residual emissions in 2050 (80% of 2019 CO2 emissions), with a 68% reduction in 2050 emissions from the baseline through technologies (-21%), operations (-6%) and fuels (-41%). The ‘aggressive/speculative’ (high) scenario (IS3) forecasts residual emissions of around 200 MtCO2 in 2050 (35% of 2019 CO2 emissions), with an 87% reduction in 2050 from the baseline through technologies (-21%), operations (-11%) and fuels (-55%).

The three scenarios therefore show the potential for CO2 reductions from in-sector emissions is substantial, although none reach zero emissions, even up to 2070, pointed out Ziegler. Even with a 100% replacement of conventional jet fuel with novel fuels, there are life-cycle emission considerations. However, drop-in advanced fuels are expected to have the largest impact in driving overall reductions by 2050. The analysis shows hydrogen is not expected to make a significant contribution to overall emissions reductions before 2050, largely because hydrogen power was considered appropriate to short-haul operations whereas the bulk of international aviation emissions (ICAO is not responsible for domestic aviation emissions) were from long-haul flights, but may increase afterwards if technically feasible and commercially viable, says the report.

The analysis shows advanced tube and wing aircraft have a clear potential to improve the fuel efficiency of the international aviation system, with an incremental contribution from aircraft with unconventional configurations. The emissions reductions from technology are expected to grow after 2050 as these aircraft penetrate the fleet.

CO2 emissions in 2050 after in-sector emissions reductions from technologies, operations and fuels were modelled against low, medium and high international aviation traffic forecasts. For IS1, CO2 emissions in 2050 are estimated to range from 730 MtCO2 to 1160 MtCO2; for IS2 the range is 420 MtCO2 to 590 MtCO2; and for IS3 the range is 150 MtCO2 to 260 MtCO2. The IS3 scenario demonstrates the critical importance of the contribution from novel fuels to decouple the growth in traffic from its CO2 emissions, says the report.

The costs of LTAG

Using a cost minus baseline approach, CAEP assessed the cumulative costs and investments associated with the integrated scenarios for the period 2020 to 2050. Costs and savings were assessed from technology, operations and fuels measures across stakeholders. Investments required from States in R&D to support aircraft technology developments could be as high as $870 billion in the IS2 and IS3 scenarios, with OEMs adding a further $350 billion. Investments from fuel suppliers were estimated to total $1.3 trillion (IS1) to $3.2 trillion (IS3) across the 30-year period. Costs and investments for ANSPs were estimated at $11-20 billion and for airports $2-6 billion across LTAG scenarios towards the implementation of operations measures. Under the IS3 scenario, a further $100-150 billion would be required towards investments in infrastructure at airports for hydrogen aircraft.

Airlines should benefit, found the analysis, from $710-740 billion in reduced operating fuel costs as a result of aircraft technology improvements, subject to a requirement for incremental fleet investments. A further $210-490 billion could be saved in reduced operating fuel costs from operational measures associated with $40-155 billion of implementation costs. Overall incremental fuel related costs (minimum selling price of novel fuels minus conventional jet fuel price) for airlines against the three integrated scenarios are estimated at $1.1 trillion (IS1), $2.7 trillion (IS2) and $4 trillion (IS3) cumulatively over the period.

CAEP acknowledges LTAG may result in some increases in operating costs being passed on to passengers. There may also be significant regional variations in the production and uptake of fuels due, for example, to regional availability of renewable energy and feedstocks, it adds.

CAEP was not tasked with consideration of the goal itself or out-of-sector emissions reductions, such as from market-based measures, but did look at the potential technical aspects of LTAG implementation, without prejudging future decisions on the goal. It suggests State Action Plans may be used for States to report progress towards a goal and if a goal was adopted, it could conduct future work, for example on possible metrics and reporting mechanisms. ICAO may need to review any goal to ensure it remains appropriate, it says, with perhaps a triennial review process similar to that for CORSIA. It also highlights a possible need for State capacity building and assistance that could include workshops, assistance on monitoring and measuring CO2 emissions and an overarching training programme like ACT-CORSIA.

Backed by other Council members during a Q&A session after the briefing, ICAO Council President Salvatore Sciacchitano congratulated CAEP on its “incredible” work and described the report as “impressive”, adding it would help to better inform the Council in its understanding. Ziegler recommended the full report, said to run to around 500 pages, be made available publicly, which Sciacchitano said would be a decision for the Council.

Some Council members said the report should be published as soon as possible and believed the findings had demonstrated the feasibility of a long-term goal. Other members expressed concerns over the potential costs of a LTAG and feared this would fall disproportionately on developing States and impact aviation growth in those countries.

Jane Hupe, ICAO’s head of environment, told the briefing that all States had approved the temperature goals of the Paris Agreement and they applied not just to individual States but also to all sectors, including aviation. “We have to comply and are required to have more ambitious goals,” she said, adding that there were already signs of a bottom-up reaction by governments and regions on policy decisions, which ICAO had to respond to at a global level. She said a LTAG would require looking again at the ambition of ICAO’s CORSIA offsetting scheme, which is designed to run until 2035 with a carbon-neutral growth goal.

A decision on LTAG will be taken at the 41st Assembly, which has now been extended to run over three weeks, rather than the normal two. It will now take place as a hybrid event between September 27 and October 14.

Before the Assembly, a special high-level meeting (HLM) of State representatives has been convened on the feasibility of a LTAG between July 20 and July 22, intended to be held in-person in Montreal and also online, subject to the Covid situation. It is expected to be immediately preceded by a two-day stocktaking event to share with delegates the latest relevant information. A Small ad-hoc Group comprising 13 Council representatives has been established that will play an important role in facilitating the drafting of a proposal for the HLM.

As a precursor to the HLM, ICAO is also holding a series of five regional virtual events for Member States starting on March 28 as part of the LTAG consultative process. Called the LTAG Global Aviation Dialogues (LTAG-GLADS), they aim to raise awareness of ICAO’s LTAG work and facilitate an exchange of views, in particular on reaching a decision on LTAG.

Update March 22: The report is now available to download at https://www.icao.int/environmental-protection/LTAG/Pages/LTAGreport.aspx

Photo: ICAO Council Chamber