We haven’t made as much progress as we wanted, or is needed, on decarbonising the aviation sector, IATA Director General Willie Walsh said in his end-of-year industry briefing to the media in Geneva. Blame was attached to governments and big oil producers for the slow investment in sustainable aviation fuel facilities, with anticipated SAF production in 2024 falling significantly short of IATA’s own expectations. Aircraft and engine manufacturers also came in for criticism over supply chain challenges that had resulted in a big shortfall of new, more fuel-efficient aircraft deliveries this year, with the result that the global fleet was on average older than ever, leading to environmental and economic consequences. However, the airline industry as a whole is on the road to a full recovery from the pandemic and global passenger numbers in 2025 are expected to pass the five billion mark for the first time, although the sector’s CO2 emissions may also reach an all-time high.

Commenting on efforts to decarbonise the airline sector at IATA’s annual Global Media Day, Walsh said: “We needed to build on the slow progress that we have seen so far, which we had expected to improve in 2024 but we’re not at the levels we had hoped to be and we need to see greater awareness on the part of governments around the world.

“This isn’t just to do with sustainable aviation fuels, it’s about the wider transition to a net zero global economy in 2050. We’re not asking for special treatment for the airline industry, we’re just looking for the same support other industries have received in their energy transition.

“We need governments to recognise that they have a huge role to play. This can’t happen by the efforts of the airline industry alone. It must involve every player to ensure we hit the critical net zero emissions target in 2050.”

Meanwhile, the global airline industry itself is enjoying a return to the good times after Covid-19, with profitability likely strengthened still further in 2025 despite ongoing aircraft and engine supply chain challenges. Net profits are expected to be $36.6 billion in 2025 on revenues that will exceed $1 trillion for the first time – an increase of 4.4% from 2024 – and a net profit margin of 3.6%.

“This will be hard-earned as airlines take advantage of lower oil prices while keeping load factors above 83%, tightly controlling costs, investing in decarbonisation and managing the return to more normal growth levels following the extraordinary pandemic recovery,” said Walsh. “All these efforts will help to mitigate several drags on profitability that are outside of airlines’ control, namely persistent supply chain challenges, infrastructure deficiencies, onerous regulation and a rising tax burden.”

Passenger numbers are expected to reach 5.2 billion in 2025, a 6.7% rise compared to 2024 and the first time that this number will have exceeded the five billion mark.

Passenger demand (RPKs) is expected to grow by 8.0% in 2025, which is ahead of a 7.1% expected expansion of capacity (ATKs). Aircraft departures are forecast to reach 40 million, an increase of 4.6% from 2024, and the average passenger load factor is anticipated at 83.4%, up 0.4 percentage points from 2024.

IATA says its public opinion polling showed 41% of surveyed travellers said they expect to travel more in the next 12 months compared to the last 12 months, 53% expected to travel at the same frequency and just 5% said they expect to travel less.

Cargo volumes are expected to reach 72.5 million tonnes, a 5.8% increase from 2024.

A less welcome increase is in the average age of the global aircraft fleet as this has a negative impact on fuel efficiency, and therefore emissions intensity, as older aircraft are retained longer. According to Marie Owens Thomsen, IATA’s Chief Economist and SVP Sustainability, the long-term average age of the global fleet over the period since 1990 had been 13.6 years, whereas in 2024 the average age had reached 14.8 years, a record.

This is seen largely as a consequence of the supply chain issues, with new aircraft deliveries falling sharply from the peak of 1,813 aircraft in 2018. The estimate for 2024 deliveries is 1,254 aircraft, a 30% shortfall on what was predicted going into the year. In 2025, deliveries are forecast to rise to 1,802, well below earlier expectations for 2,293 deliveries. IATA foresees further downward revisions in 2025 “as quite possible”. The backlog for new aircraft has reached 17,000 planes, it says, which would take 14 years to fulfil at present delivery rates, although this should shorten over time.

“Supply chain issues are frustrating every airline with a triple whammy on revenues, costs and environmental performance,” said Walsh. “Load factors are at record highs and there is no doubt that if we had more aircraft they could be profitably deployed, so our revenues are being compromised. Meanwhile the ageing fleet that airlines are using has higher maintenance costs, burns more fuel and takes more capital to keep it flying.”

IATA says fuel efficiency, excluding the impact of load factors, was unchanged between 2023 and 2024 at 0.23 litres/100 ATKs, against a long-term trend (1990-2019) of annual fuel efficiency improvements in the range of 1.5 to 2.0%. If load factors were taken into account, fuel efficiency showed a marginal year-on-year improvement, from 4.3 litres/100 RPKs in 2023 to 4.2 litres/100 RPKs in 2024.

“The entire aviation sector is united in its commitment to achieving net zero carbon emissions by 2050. But when it comes to the practicality of actually getting there, airlines are left bearing the biggest burden. The supply chain issues are a case in point,” said Walsh. “Manufacturers are letting down their airline customers and that is having a direct impact of slowing down airlines’ efforts to limit their carbon emissions. If the aircraft and engine manufacturers could sort out their issues and keep their promises, we’d have a more fuel-efficient fleet in the air.

“We’ve been patient so far but that patience is running out and the situation is unacceptable. We are dealing with quasi monopoly suppliers who are abusing their position and this is an issue we need to look at.”

He added the performance of aircraft engines had also been “nowhere near where they should be.”

Against a backdrop of falling jet fuel prices, airlines’ cumulative fuel spend is expected to be $248 billion in 2025, a decline of 4.8% despite a 6% rise in the amount of fuel expected to be consumed – 107 billion gallons. Fuel is forecast to account for 26.4% of operating costs in 2025, down from 28.9% in 2024.

IATA’s expected 2025 jet fuel consumption of 107 billion gallons translates into around 324 million tonnes, so global CO2 emissions from the airline sector are likely to pass the one billion tonne mark in 2025 for the first time.

The cost of purchasing carbon credits to comply with ICAO’s CORSIA offsetting scheme, which started coming through in 2024, is estimated by IATA at $700 million, and forecast to rise to $1 billion in 2025. The costs for the limited quantities of sustainable aviation fuel available are estimated to add $3.8 billion to industry fuel costs in 2025, up from $1.7 billion in 2024.

On SAF, Walsh doesn’t foresee a linear growth in use although expects exponential growth beyond 2035.

“But we need to get building SAF production facilities today,” he said. “We can use existing refineries for co-processing, where blending is currently limited to 5% but has the potential to increase to 30%. This would have a major impact on capital expenditure requirements and could be achieved reasonably quickly.

“Where we have not seen as much progress as we would have liked is investment in new biorefineries. We need to call out those big fuel producers who have pulled back from their commitments to produce sustainable fuels – they need to play their part, we can’t just rely on new entrants.”

There is evidence, he said, that where jet fuel suppliers had been mandated to include SAF but had not done so and fined as a consequence, they had passed on the cost to airlines. “They don’t care if they get fined and this is a clear case where mandates make no sense whatsoever. There is zero environmental benefit. Politicians aren’t asking themselves if these measures are going to lead to the intended results. It’s disappointing and there needs to be more honesty in this debate.”

According to analysis by IATA, SAF production volumes in 2024 reached 1 million tonnes (1.3 billion litres), double the 0.5 million tonnes produced in 2023, and accounted for 0.3% of global jet fuel production and 11% of global renewable fuel. It says this is “significantly” below its previous projection for 2024 of 1.5 million tonnes, which it partially attributes to key SAF producers in the US pushing back their ramp up to the first half of 2025.

SAF production in 2025 is expected by IATA to reach 2.1 million tonnes, or 0.7% of total jet fuel production.

“SAF volumes are increasing, but disappointingly slowly,” commented Walsh.

Editor’s note: The second part of this report from IATA’s end-of-year industry analysis, which will focus on SAF, will follow next month.

Photo: IATA’s Marie Owens Thomsen and Willie Walsh

Christopher Surgenor

Editor

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A new study by UK-based consultancy CFP Energy has identified a significant divergence of strategies to decarbonise aviation in the UK, France and Germany, and serious impediments to the industry’s ability to reach its net zero emissions targets. The report, ‘Decarbonising the Future: Navigating ETS Reforms and Net Zero Solutions’, was based on surveys of chief financial officers and risk management professionals of more than 500 organisations in high-emission industries including aviation, shipping, construction, data centres and manufacturing. The study reflected strong uptake of measures including biofuels, green certificates and voluntary carbon credits. But of the aviation operators surveyed in the UK and Europe, 95% of respondents expect a rise in carbon allowance demand, while funding limitations and insufficient access to new technologies are highlighted as key barriers to progress.

“Between funding issues, regulations, knowledge gaps and a lack of technology, large-scale organisations face a mountain of issues to overcome,” said CFP Energy’s COO, Catherine Newman, commenting on the report.     

The survey, commissioned by CFP and conducted by London-based research group 3Gem before the UN’s recent COP29 climate summit in Baku, Azerbaijan, focused on the urgent push to reduce carbon emissions, particularly in Europe, where intensified regulations and steep decarbonisation targets have been announced. In the aviation sector, respondents included airlines, airport operators and associated businesses.  

Central to the survey was the European Union’s ‘Fit for 55’ reform programme, developed to reduce carbon emissions by enacting measures including the EU Emissions Trading System, which since 2012 has imposed ever-increasing limits on emissions from intra-Europe flights.

After Brexit, the UK introduced its own ETS, while France and Germany adopted customised approaches to reach net zero carbon emissions, complicating compliance for airlines operating in these markets.

A key concern for carriers that responded to the survey is the rapid reduction in free carbon allowances, which are due to be phased out in 2026, and both the scarcity and cost of future concessions. Based on 2010 benchmarks, airlines have previously received up to 82% of their carbon allowances for free. But this year they have been reduced by 25%, and next year will come down by 50% before they are abolished and replaced with a full auction system.

As well, the EU is considering expanding its ETS obligations by 2027 to also include non-CO2 emissions such as nitrous oxides and soot, both key elements of warming contrails produced by aircraft in specific conditions and coming under increasing global scrutiny.

The study found 95% of airline respondents in the UK and Europe expected a rise in demand for carbon allowances, but also identified significant barriers to their decarbonisation ambitions, with 61% highlighting funding limitations and 60% the insufficient availability of new technologies to help them reduce their carbon emissions.

As well, 54% of respondents identified knowledge gaps as impediments to reducing emissions, and 53% cited regulatory complexities.

But aviation operators still continued to pursue other decarbonisation technologies and products, the most popular being biofuels (53%) and voluntary carbon markets (51%), followed at 48% by power purchase agreements and green certificates (44%). The industry also indicated significant interest in alternative fuel sources, particularly hydrogen.      

Most respondents to the survey (90%) said they had produced a plan to transition their businesses to net zero operations, through there were marked differences between the UK, Germany and France among those who said they were not meeting targets.

Of total respondents, 13% of those with transition plans were falling short of their targets. In France, 17% said they were underachieving, while in Germany 7% were behind.

“What is most interesting,” said Newman, “are the barriers that industry stakeholders attribute to holding their respective sectors back.

“We hope this report provides business leaders with actionable solutions to tackle decarbonisation amidst volatile conditions. The solutions to decarbonise exist, we simply need to provide better access to them.”

Tim Atkinson, CFP Energy’s Director of Sales and Structuring, said it was vital that businesses focused on changes needed to comply with evolving environmental regulations.  

“It’s encouraging to see many of the survey participants are planning for rises in future ETS carbon prices and taking advantage of the flexibility carbon markets offer to manage rising compliance costs whilst technology challenges are addressed,” he said.

“It has never been more important for businesses to ensure they are prepared for the paradigm shift of tougher targets and higher carbon prices that is set to impact both the UK and EU emissions trading schemes over the next five to 10 years.”

Tony Harrington

Correspondent

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Analysis by Brussels-based pressure group Transport & Environment (T&E) has found that emissions from business flying by the pharma sector business dropped 21% in 2023 compared to pre-Covid 2019 levels. This compares to a fall in the business travel emissions of global consultancies by 46% and technology companies by 49% measured over the same period. T&E is leading a campaign, Travel Smart, to reduce corporate air travel emissions by 50% or more from 2019 levels, and says by flying less now, companies can make a big contribution to aviation sustainability. Business travellers make up some 12% of passengers but up to 75% of revenues on certain flights, so their choices have important leverage on the aviation industry, it argues.

“For the critical decade until 2030, the best way to reduce aviation emissions is to fly less, as the timing for scale-up of sustainable fuels and zero-emissions aircraft is currently post-2030, and offsetting has shown to be ineffective,” states T&E on its Travel Smart website.

“Consumers, investors and employees are more concerned by the impacts of climate change then ever before. If businesses fall out of step with expectations, their reputation is at risk. Demonstrating a commitment to sustainability and adopting planet-friendly travel policies will enhance their image, appeal and overall success.”

The latest analysis of 11 of the world’s major pharmaceutical companies could have seen a reduction as large as -44% if the two pharmas flying the most, Johnson & Johnson and Merck, had halved their emissions instead of reducing them by 10% in the case of the former and increasing emissions by 29% in the case of Merck, said T&E.

“Top flyers should be leading by example, not watering down efforts to reduce business flying,” commented Denise Auclair, head of the Travel Smart campaign at T&E. “What we’re seeing in the pharmaceutical sector is an extreme case of large polluters hampering the sector’s progress towards flying less, but we’ve seen that story some other times.”

The NGO believes sustained business flying reductions can only be assured through targets and says just four of the 11 companies analysed had set a business travel target. The four – Pfizer, AstraZeneca, Novo Nordisk and Roche – achieved emissions reductions ranging from 44% to 55%.

Its analysis of major global consulting firms found 12 of the 15 companies in its sample had set business travel targets, with Accenture, KPMG and SGS so far failing to do so, although the former had achieved a 71% reduction in 2023 compared to 2019, the highest of all the companies analysed.

“The overall trend is one of reduction in the aftermath of the pandemic where global travel came to a halt, and notably by those who previously were flying the most,” observes T&E. “However, the data shows that consulting companies are slowly creeping back towards pre-Covid levels.”

This trend is also mirrored in the technology sector, where the world’s biggest tech companies have halved their business flying compared with 2019 but those that have not set targets to reduce flying emissions, such as Alphabet, the parent company of Google, and Apple, were slowly returning to 2019 levels. On the other hand, India’s tech giant Wipro, a company that set a target of -55% by 2030, increased its reduction to -71%.

“Tech companies have claimed to be climate leaders for a long time and many have substantially reduced their business travel emissions, but if they want to be credible, they must set reduction targets,” said Auclair.

Christopher Surgenor

Editor

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Global commercial aircraft lessor SMBC Aviation Capital predicts it will be at least a decade before the next generation of all-new airliners enter commercial service. The company says new concepts will need to be at least 20% more fuel efficient than the planes they replace, as aviation strives to achieve net zero carbon emissions by 2050. The Dublin-based, Japanese-owned lessor says the next generation will most likely seat 180-220 passengers, the size of today’s narrowbody Airbus A321, and does not see an all-new widebody jet coming to market before 2044. And while there is significant focus on new zero-emission electric and hydrogen-powered aircraft, SMBC believes they both address only a fraction of aviation’s emissions compared to sustainable aviation fuel, “the highest impact avenue” for decarbonising the air transport sector.  

The leasing company’s assessments are contained in a new discussion paper, ‘Fuelling the Future of Flight’. While the rival Airbus A320 and Boeing 737 families of single-aisle jets dominate the airliner market – and SMBC’s fleet of 987 jets – the lessor thinks neither platform can be further refined to meet future efficiency and environmental requirements.

“Airbus, with its A320 family, is on its third iteration (including the -100),” says SMBC, “while Boeing’s 737 family originated in the mid-1960s and is on its fourth iteration. We do not expect another version of either type given their limitation to accommodate bigger engines, so both replacements will be clean sheet designs.

“We expect both Boeing and Airbus to announce new aircraft types in the late 2020s to early 2030s to replace the (Airbus) neo and (Boeing 737) MAX. We believe the aircraft will be optimised around 180-220 passengers in two-class configuration size, with a shrink version available with around 30 seats less as well as a stretched design adding 30-50 seats more.”

The lessor describes as “more straightforward” the widebody jet market, with the twin-engine Airbus A350 and Boeing 787 families at the core of that segment, and the long-delayed Boeing 777X – “which is essentially a re-engined Boeing 777-300ER” – currently expected to enter commercial service during 2026.

“We do not expect a clean sheet design in the medium-to-large widebody segment over the coming two decades,” says SMBC. “Rather, there will be further Product Improvement Packages on the engines, and eventually a re-engined offering.”

SMBC says a key reason aviation’s emissions are so difficult to abate is the combination of long development cycles for new aircraft types and their long economic lives, “making the fleet renewal process span decades.”

Although smaller airframers are evolving, the company sees no competitive third-party entrant able to challenge Airbus and Boeing, due to market barriers including cost, engineering expertise and ability to produce planes at sufficient rates, and with global support.

“Developing a new aircraft is expensive with $15 billion the most commonly used estimate,” says the lessor. “Single-aisle aircraft have historically cost between $10 billion and $12 billion, but the Airbus A320 and Boeing 737 are derivatives of older designs.  

“Earlier in the year, Boeing’s David Calhoun referenced a price tag of $50 billion which presumably assumes an all-new design with significant margin for delays or cost overruns, and likely includes the engine OEM (original equipment manufacturer) costs as well.”

SMBC says it takes a further four-to-six years before the delivery of the first new aircraft, then another three-to-five years in which existing and new aircraft models are both produced while the older version is phased out.

“This essentially means that following the announcement of a new aircraft type, it is likely 10 years before production has shifted from the existing to the new technology,” it estimates.

“We believe that the next new technology aircraft will need to be 20%+ more efficient than its predecessor to drive meaningful change,” says the lessor, reinforcing the industry position that sustainable aviation fuel is considered as the “highest impact avenue” to cleaner flight, reducing aviation’s carbon emissions by over 70%, and calls on governments to incentivise and encourage SAF development.

“Battery and hydrogen technology will indeed be developed but will be limited to smaller aircraft with fewer passengers, a segment of the market that makes up just 16% of emissions,” adds SMBC, questioning the scale of their contribution, and casting doubt on the logistics of hydrogen propulsion.

“While a battery-powered solution may work on some shorter-range aircraft, only 4% of emissions come from flights less than 500km. Hydrogen takes up three times as much space as kerosene, needs to be stored at very low temperatures (-253 degrees C) and is highly flammable. In addition, there are over 41,000 airports in the world that would require substantial investment to change ground refuelling infrastructure.

“At this point, the main engine OEMs are focusing on design improvements to their kerosene / SAF-powered engines.”

Tony Harrington

Correspondent

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An IATA report to compare leading decarbonisation roadmaps for the aviation sector has found significant differences regarding how technologies and solutions may evolve in the transition to net zero. Although all roadmaps assume sustainable aviation fuels will be responsible for the greatest amount of CO2 reductions by 2050, their role varies from 24% to 70%. This, says the report, reflects the uncertainties regarding potential supportive government action, the level of investments, cost of production and profit potential, as well as access to feedstocks. This first analysis undertaken to provide a holistic review of 14 major global and regional net zero CO2 emissions by 2050 roadmaps was undertaken by IATA in collaboration with the Air Transport Action Group, the International Council on Clean Transportation, the Mission Possible Partnership and the Air Transportation Systems Laboratory at University College London.

The report, ‘The Aviation Net Zero CO2 Transition Pathways Comparative Review’, compares the selected roadmaps in terms of their scope, key input assumptions, modelled aviation energy demand, respective CO2 emissions and the emissions reduction potential of each mitigation lever or pathway, namely new aircraft technologies, zero-carbon fuels, SAF and operational improvements.

The possible pathways to net zero CO2 emissions by 2050 differ significantly depending on the key assumptions of the roadmap authors regarding how technologies and future fuels may evolve, so the resulting role of particular levers will be more or less important, finds the study led by IATA’s Dr Bojun Wang. In addition, the roadmaps analysed adopted different demand modelling approaches. Some used a top-down approach with pre-determined aviation demand growth rates, and the transition measures were applied on top of this growth as ‘gap fillers’ to reduce the emissions to net zero by 2050, while others used a bottom-up approach where demand growth is modelled to reflect the impacts of different transition measures on demand. This makes it difficult for stakeholders and policymakers to compare the transition pathways and levers of action to achieve net zero, points out the report.

Given that currently there are only a few new aircraft projects under development and the fleet replacement rate is generally low, most of the roadmaps assume, on average, about 1.0% per year improvement in energy efficiency from now until 2050, measured in megajoules per revenue passenger kilometres, although some have more aggressive assumptions, with one forecasting a 2.2% per year fuel efficiency improvement from new types of aircraft introduced from 2035.

All roadmaps assume that energy intensity reduction from operational efficiency gains will be lower than that of technology efficiency improvement, on average 0.1% to 0.2% per year, although one has a greater 0.5% assumption based on higher load factors and traffic efficiency improvements.

If putting the technology and operational levers together for all roadmaps, the total efficiency improvement is about 1.0% to 1.5% per year in most roadmaps.

Sustainable aviation fuel produced from biomass resources (bio-SAF) and those synthetic fuels produced from CO2 and electricity (power-to-liquid or PtL) are assumed to deliver the highest emissions savings in the energy transition of the aviation sector to reach net zero by 2050. SAF volumes only reached 0.5 Mt in 2023 and all roadmaps indicate that to reach the 2050 target, the share of SAF in total aviation energy demand must be at least 5-6% by 2030. ICAO recently set an aspirational goal of achieving a 5% reduction in carbon intensity from international aviation by 2030, and the ICAO LTAG S3 models the highest share of SAF at 21% by 2030 for international aviation.

The report notes that for the higher 2030 SAF use estimates, the speed with which infrastructure can be ramped up is also a key constraint for SAF production, given that the number of SAF facilities planned to be built by then may not meet the high SAF demand.

By 2050, SAF is expected to account for 65% to 100% of the total energy demand for aviation, depending on whether any other clean energy sources, such as green hydrogen-powered aircraft, are considered in the given roadmap.

How fast SAF can penetrate the global aviation energy supply depends on feedstock availability and production costs relative to fossil jet fuel, says the report, and with SAF currently about two to six times more expensive, future prices of SAF remain “highly uncertain”. PtL fuels are assumed to be available only from the mid-2020s or 2030 in the majority of roadmaps. Demand for SAF is projected to accelerate significantly from 2030 to 2050 across all the roadmaps. However, the shares of bio-SAF and PtL in the total SAF consumption vary widely by the corresponding model assumptions.

Hydrogen-powered aircraft, with a limited range, are largely assumed to enter the market in the mid-2030s, while battery-electric aircraft coming in around the same time but serve even shorter-range markets. The estimated emissions savings from these aircraft vary greatly across the roadmaps, depending on whether a strong pro-hydrogen policy is adopted and on whether there is a rapid decline in renewable energy prices that enable swifter uptake of these technologies.

With the exception of one US roadmap, all the global roadmaps suggest the aviation sector will need help from market-based measures (MBMs), such as ICAO’s CORSIA scheme and the EU ETS, and carbon removals to address residual emissions in 2050. “Even if carbon removal technologies are considered an ‘out-of-sector’ mitigation measure, it is still both urgent and critical to develop these technologies as CO2 will be needed as feedstock for producing PtL fuels,” says the report.

IATA’s own roadmap mid-scenario models gross CO2 emissions of 1115 Mt in 2050, which after the implementation of the technology, operational and SAF levers, leaves residual emissions of 465 Mt CO2 to be mitigated by MBMs and carbon removals. This is the largest of all the roadmaps, with the exception of ICAO’s LTAG S2 scenario of 495 Mt from international aviation. The lowest on a global basis, 70 Mt, is forecast in ICCT’s Breakthrough scenario.

Concluding, the authors say: “By comparing these roadmaps, this report is instrumental in helping airlines better understand the potential of reducing CO2 emissions by different mitigation measures. Given that most of the transition measures for the aviation sector are not yet readily available, we believe there will not be a universal path to help the aviation sector reach net zero by 2050.”

Nevertheless, added Marie Owens Thomsen, IATA’s SVP Sustainability and Chief Economist: “This report provides airlines, policymakers and all stakeholders with a useful tool to analyse and improve their policy, investment and business choices.

“It is particularly important for SAF, where strong and urgent public policy support is needed to increase production. Without that, no version of roadmaps will get us to net zero carbon emissions by 2050.”

Image: IATA

Christopher Surgenor

Editor

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A new report by the International Council on Clean Transportation (ICCT) concludes CO2 emissions from aircraft must peak as early as 2025 if the aviation industry is to bring itself in line with Paris Agreement temperature goals. The report, ‘Vision 2050’, uses three scenarios – Action, Transformation and Breakthrough – to assess measures needed to meet global temperature targets of 2, 1.75 and 1.5 degrees Celsius by 2050. The outcomes reflect CO2 reductions of between 9% and 94% below 2019 levels through the use of sustainable aviation fuels, aircraft fleet renewal, improved operational efficiency and the introduction of zero emission planes (ZEPs) powered mainly by liquid hydrogen, reports Tony Harrington. The report comes as ICAO member states meet next month to discuss the establishment of a long-term aspirational goal to limit emissions from international aviation. “One thing is certain,” says ICCT. “Aligning aviation with the below 2-degree Celsius aspiration of the Paris Agreement is possible, but requires significant ambition and investment.”

The scenarios addressed by the ICCT study, led by Brandon Graver, examine six key parameters – air traffic, aircraft technology, operations, zero emission planes, sustainable aviation fuels and economic incentives. Against a baseline of continuing current policies, the Action case focuses on technology initiatives by governments and industry to cap aviation’s 2050 CO2 emissions below 2019 levels. The Transformation case is more proactive, with governments and industry transitioning aviation off fossil fuels from 2035, to almost halve 2050 CO2 emissions compared to 2005.  The third and most robust strategy, Breakthrough, relies on “early, aggressive, and sustained government intervention” to encourage widespread investments in zero-carbon aircraft and fuels, “peaking fossil jet fuel use in 2025 and zeroing it out by 2050”.    

Unlike other sustainable aviation roadmaps, the ICCT says its Vision 2050: Aligning Aviation with the Paris Agreement report is focused only on international passenger and freight operations. It also considers aviation’s CO2 emissions on a well-to-wake (WTW) basis, assessing not only direct emissions from flights, but also those linked to the production of conventional Jet A fuel, biofuels and synthetic fuels. “On average, the WTW emissions are 21% higher than the CO2 emitted directly from the aircraft engines,” says the report. “In contrast, other roadmaps typically only account for emissions produced from the combustion of fuel.”

ICCT states the most ambitious scenarios of its roadmap, as well as those published by ATAG (the cross-industry aviation group) and ICAO, are consistent with a 1.75°C future in which aviation does not increase its share of a global carbon budget.

Although the report focuses heavily on the benefits of new technology, it cautions the design and manufacture of new aircraft types are slow, and that efficiency benefits can take years to materialise. “Very few new aircraft projects are currently underway, the Boeing 777X being one example. Hence, we assume that no step-change improvement in the technical efficiency of delivered aircraft will be reflected in scenarios until 2035.”

Under the Action scenario, emission-reducing technologies for 2050 are extended by the introduction of “moderate fuel efficiency standards for new aircraft” and investments in improved airspace management. ICCT predicts these initiatives will reduce fuel consumption per revenue passenger kilometre (RPK) by 36% below 2019 levels. Supported by federal incentives and blending mandates from 2025, 220 million tonnes (Mt) of SAF will be generated by 2050, or around 60% of aviation fuel supply. This scenario estimates a 7% increase in aviation fuel prices in 2030, eventually leading to a 6% reduction in RPKs by 2050 compared to the baseline “status quo” position.

The Transformation case forecasts 2050 fuel consumption per RPK to fall 40% below 2019 levels through accelerated efficiency standards for new aircraft and domestic and intra-EU fuel taxes, supported by the introduction of regional electric aircraft in 2030 and hydrogen combustion fleets from 2035. As well, “aggressive mandates, incentives and fuel taxes” are expected to drive greater uptake of SAF, generating 250 million tonnes of supply in 2050, around 70% of total hydrocarbon demand. This scenario assumes a 17% increase in fuel prices by 2030 and continued rises until 2040, before reductions occur in 2050 as economies of scale are achieved in producing synthetic e-kerosene from renewable electricity.

The most substantial decarbonisation comes from the Breakthrough scenario, in which ICCT predicts a 45% reduction in fuel burn per RPK off the back of a global fuel tax, maximum efficiency standards for new aircraft and breakthroughs in air traffic management.  Under this assessment, hydrogen combustion aircraft enter commercial service in 2035, to comprise half of all regional and narrowbody aircraft sales in 2050, while global fuel taxes and bans on the use of fossil-fuelled aircraft will help to deliver 385 million tonnes of SAF.

The report says all three decarbonisation scenarios deliver 2050 carbon emissions lower than in 2019, with Action cutting CO2 by 9%, Transformation approximately halving 2019 emission levels and Breakthrough reaching near zero (70Mt) emissions in 2050 without the use of out-of-sector measures.

But, it warns: “All scenarios investigated exhaust aviation’s proportional share of a 1.5° Celsius carbon budget in 2030. This suggests that near-term, interim targets will be needed to align aviation with the Paris Agreement.   

“The Baseline case breaches a 2°C carbon budget before 2045. Under the Action scenario, global aviation consumes its share of a 2°C carbon budget by 2050. Under the Transformation case, by the same year, aviation exhausts the share available to it under a 1.9°C carbon budget. By peaking emissions in 2025 and reducing them to near-zero levels by 2050, Breakthrough is consistent with a 1.75°C temperature target.”

The report says only the Breakthrough scenario enables cumulative CO2 emissions to stabilise by 2050.

“For other scenarios, airlines continue to emit substantial CO2 after 2050. Furthermore, aviation could still exhaust its share of a Paris-compatible carbon budget even with deep cuts in CO2 in 2050 if the development of needed technologies is delayed. For a 1.5° C pathway to be maintained without increasing aviation’s share of a global carbon budget, an additional 50% reduction in cumulative emissions (11Gt of CO2) beyond the Breakthrough case would be required. This is equivalent to achieving net zero emissions by 2030 – two decades sooner than the aviation industry has planned in its net-zero commitments.”

Photo: Heathrow Airport

A report by low carbon energy consultants Element Energy (EE) analysing the UK government’s ‘Jet Zero’ strategy to hit net zero aviation emissions by 2050, with interim reduction targets for the 2030s, concludes the scenarios are over-optimistic. The report, commissioned by UK campaign group the Aviation Environment Federation, concludes acting early by halting airport capacity growth along with implementing other demand reduction measures pose a far less risky approach to reaching the targets. EE estimates the aviation sector will need to cut emissions faster and deeper in the near term than the government is currently projecting. The government’s plans overestimate the likely improvements in operations, technology and alternative fuels, along with out-of-sector solutions such as engineered GHG removals, and are unlikely to be developed at the speed and scale necessary, it argues. AEF, meanwhile, has joined with other NGOs in calling on the government to withdraw its policy support for UK airport expansion until aviation emissions start falling and wider emissions are “substantially below” a 1.5°C-compliant trajectory.

Despite aviation demand – in terms of UK terminal passengers – being forecast to increase by over 70% in the latest government assumptions between 2018 and 2050 under its High Ambition scenario, aviation is expected to be one of only two sectors (the other being agriculture) still to have residual emissions in 2050, with very high-cost carbon removals required to mitigate this. As laid out in its Jet Zero further technical consultation in March 2022, possible trajectories by the UK Department for Transport (DfT) show in-sector CO2e emissions of 36Mt in 2030, 28Mt in 2040 and 15Mt in 2050, or net CO2e emissions of 24-29Mt in 2030, 12-17Mt in 2040 and 0Mt in 2050. The latest government statistics show international aviation emissions in pre-pandemic 2019 amounted to 37MtCO2e, which have more than doubled since 1990, with a further 1.5MtCO2e from domestic flights.

As part of its net zero by 2050 commitment, the UK aviation industry last year announced interim decarbonisation targets of a net reduction in emissions by “at least” 15% by 2030, relative to 2019, and a 40% net reduction by 2040 as, said its Sustainable Aviation cross-sector alliance, “with the pace of decarbonisation ramping up as game-changing sustainable aviation fuels, permanent carbon removal, and new low and zero-carbon technologies – such as electric and hydrogen-powered aircraft – become mainstream in the 2030s.”

However, the report by Element Energy says the High Ambition scenario “is over-reliant on emerging high-risk technologies and uncertain policy in the forecasting of the emission abatements in 2035.” Key risk factors, it says, include a slow-down in aerospace R&D spend post-Covid that makes it unlikely efficiency improvements will achieve a step-change growth of 2.0% annually from 1.5% historic levels. It is also pessimistic about the higher levels of SAF demand required by 2035 to meet the High Ambition scenario and questions as misleading the 100% emissions savings assumed from SAF. In addition, it criticises the exclusion of aviation non-CO2 effects as substantially underestimating aviation’s warming impact.

It also says the scenario sees a substantial emissions abatement in 2050 relying on CORSIA carbon pricing on long-haul flights reaching ETS levels, which it believes is unlikely. CORSIA, ICAO’s global carbon offsetting scheme for international aviation, is currently designed to end in 2035.

“Overall, it is unclear how DfT plans to deliver these high rates of technological improvements, SAF uptake and aircraft efficiencies,” says the report. “Expanding carbon pricing, with EE estimations suggesting that only about 17% of total aviation emissions are currently priced, would also be essential to support the rapid uptake of new technologies by airlines but would rely on breakthroughs at ICAO in terms of the level of ambition in CORSIA and future arrangements for a market-based measure after 2035.”

EE says relying on greenhouse gas removals is also risky and argues “they should only be deployed once both technological and behaviour change options to reduce emissions have been exhausted.”

It suggests demand management policies could take several forms, including reducing passenger demand for flying through carbon pricing, an air miles or frequent flyer levy, applying VAT or reforms to Air Passenger Duty, and restricting the availability of flights through management of airport capacity. Additional non-financial behaviour change interventions could include improved marketing of domestic tourism opportunities and consumer information about the CO2 impacts of flights.

“Constraining demand now through airport capacity is far easier and more reliable than allowing capacity and demand to grow and then rapidly trying to reduce demand in the future through pricing mechanisms,” says EE. “We conclude that there should be no airport expansion until and unless it is clear that both in-sector (aircraft technology) and out-of-sector (carbon removal) emissions reductions are on track to meet a fair emissions reduction for 2035 and beyond.”

Commenting on the findings, Cait Hewitt, Policy Director at the Aviation Environment Federation, said: “The government’s plan is to sit back and allow both airports and emissions to grow in the short term while hoping for future technologies and fuels to save the day. This new report gives a damning appraisal of the level of risk in every aspect of the current approach to aviation emissions and highlights the need for action now, including ruling out airport expansion and limiting demand, to ensure aviation makes a fair contribution to cutting emissions by 2035 and is on a pathway to net zero by 2050.”

On the back of the report, AEF and six other environmental NGOS – AirportWatch, Friends of the Earth, Green Alliance, Greenpeace, Possible and Transport & Environment – have written an open letter to Aviation Minister Robert Court that calls on the government to withdraw its support for airport expansion in the UK. The letter also expresses concern over the assumptions the government’s Jet Zero draft strategy makes on increases in sustainable fuels and carbon removals occurring after 2030, “but with no clear policy plan to ensure they are delivered.”

Photo: Heathrow Airport

A new market report by SkyNRG, the Amsterdam-based global provider of sustainable aviation fuels, predicts that both the US and Europe will fall short of their 2030 SAF targets unless production capacity is increased and fuel feedstock sources are expanded, and estimates the need for more than 450 new facilities to meet the 2050 goals of both markets. The report says current US announcements of SAF production rely predominantly on the availability of fats, oils and greases (FOGs), and corn ethanol, “with an optimistic perspective on the availability of FOGs”. It believes a lack of production incentives will limit use of alternative Power-to-Liquids (PtL) SAF in the US “despite its vast potential”. In Europe, it estimates there will be sufficient SAF to meet demand until 2027, as long as currently announced production capacity is delivered and some renewable diesel facilities also produce SAF. But it expects SAF supply in Europe and the UK will not be sufficient to meet mandated volumes by 2030 without more production capacity or imports, reports Tony Harrington.

In July last year, SkyNRG released its first market outlook report after the European Commission announced the ReFuelEU Aviation initiative to drive increased use of SAFs. In its latest report released this month, SkyNRG has provided updated projections following the US government’s introduction of its SAF ‘Grand Challenge’ to help drive up production of the fuels and a proposal by the UK government to introduce a SAF blending mandate.

“For the United States, SkyNRG concludes that meeting the 3 billion-gallon (8.6 Mt) SAF target by 2030 is conditional upon rapid feedstock and technology diversification,” finds the latest report, which warns that access to sufficient fats, oils and greases for SAF production would be limited by competing demands for renewable diesel production.

It adds: “SkyNRG expects that with current policies, a significant share of the 2030 production target would be filled with SAF from corn ethanol. The remainder would have to be filled by SAF from wastes and residues converted via the Alcohol-to-Jet and Gasification plus Fischer-Tropsch (AtJ/G+FT) pathways. Power-to-Liquids SAF is not expected to play a significant near-term role in meeting US SAF supply due to absent incentives, despite its vast potential.”

Production in the US is expected to be driven by three policy mechanisms that together could, says SkyNRG, significantly reduce the cost of SAF for the aviation industry: the Renewable Fuel Standard, the California and Oregon Low-Carbon Fuel Standards and the proposed federal SAF blenders tax credit.

The report also concludes that achieving 2050 targets for 100% SAF will be “extremely challenging”, even with stable demand for pre-Covid levels of jet fuel. “To meet the 100% SAF goal, the US will need to double down on valorising cellulosic waste feedstocks, develop novel sustainable biomass supply chains and accelerate green hydrogen deployment for Power-to-Liquids,” says SkyNRG. “Using conservative assumptions, we expect the US can develop around 250-plus SAF facilities by 2050, which could yield roughly 50 Mt (18 billion gallons) SAF, falling short of the required 75 Mt (27 billion gallons) under constant jet fuel demand.” The estimated number of SAF facilities was based on an average plant size of 200,000 metric tonnes, averaged across multiple technology pathways.

SkyNRG said that at the time its latest report was produced, an analysis of all renewable fuel projects announced in the US showed approximately 0.9 billion gallons (2.5 Mt) of SAF capacity was expected to be operating by 2030. “This means that the US is about 2.1 billion gallons (6 Mt) short of meeting the 2030 production goal.” Because the SAF Grand Challenge is a production target, imports of SAF were not considered in the SkyNRG analysis.

In Europe, the short-term assessment by SkyNRG is more positive. “We conclude that up to 2027, supply can match demand, provided that currently-announced production capacity materialises and some renewable diesel facilities will make additional investments to produce SAF,” says the report. “Until 2030, European supply is 2 Mt short of meeting projected mandate demand. More announcements are needed, and/or imports of SAF will have to be considered to meet expected mandates in the EU and UK.”

However, adds SkyNRG: “Based on announced projects worldwide, we expect that potentially 2 Mt of SAF could find its way to the European market, meaning additional European capacity would not be needed to meet mandated volumes in 2030.”  

That position would change if Europe opted to prioritise energy independence, which SkyNRG said would require European renewable diesel plants to produce SAF, or fresh commitments to produce fuel from cellulosic waste or renewable power inputs.“ Long term, Europe will have to develop 200-plus SAF facilities to meet a demand of 40 Mt by 2050 under constant jet fuel volumes. Most of these facilities would be based on AtJ/G+FT and Power-to-Liquid technology.”       

SkyNRG said that based on discussions with aviation stakeholders in the UK, a blending mandate of 2.5% (0.3 Mt) is most likely to be introduced in 2025, rising to 10% (1.2 Mt) by 2030, 31% (3.9 Mt) by 2040 and 75% (9.3 Mt) by 2050. “To meet the aggregate demand from EU and UK mandates, and the additional demand expected from national mandates, a SAF supply of 4.7 Mt in 2030 and 39.1 Mt in 2050 is needed.”   

Photo: SkyNRG

A study commissioned by European aviation trade associations has found that while rail travel has lower CO2 emissions per passenger kilometre than air travel, the benefits of shifting short-haul flights to rail are limited and are not a silver bullet for curbing emissions. The study also cautions that a shift can generate other environmental, social and economic costs, and could compromise efforts to decarbonise short-haul aviation through developing new technology. Its report says multiple factors need to be considered when assessing the optimal policy for short-haul aviation in Europe, including the environmental cost of building new rail infrastructure. The heads of the associations call upon policymakers to take all of this into account when considering how to optimise the decarbonisation of European regional transport. Another study in 2020 concluded a modal shift to railways could result in a potential reduction of 4 to 7 million tonnes of CO2 from intra-European aviation but only if the speed and quality of cross-border rail services improved and measures were taken to discourage air travel.

The results of the new study carried out by economics and finance consultancy Oxera for European industry associations covering airlines, air navigation, airports and manufacturers are published in a report, ‘Short-haul flying and sustainable connectivity’. It concludes that although a direct comparison of emissions shows rail has lower emissions per passenger than air travel, a modal shift from air to rail is complex and far from simple. If short-haul travel is banned then some passengers may choose to travel by car instead, which could lead to higher emissions, it says.

Among the arguments raised by the study is that for many short-haul routes with a lower traffic frequency, or at airports without a good high-speed rail connection, rail cannot be economically viable as it is based on a different business model with lower occupancy and speed rates. The industry also points to the importance of regional airports and airlines in ensuring local economies are able to access bigger economic centres.

“They are key to the EU’s cohesion policy and essential tools to reduce territorial and social inequality,” said the associations in a joint statement.

The Oxera report says building new railway lines has a high environmental cost due to the carbon emissions associated with cement and steel production, along with emissions from the fuel used for construction of infrastructure, plus significant impact on biodiversity and damage to wildlife habitats. The study also found there is unlikely to be sufficient rail capacity to accommodate all air passengers on a given route, meaning new railway lines would need to be built and new rolling stock procured.

“This would have significant environmental impacts, and the carbon payback period for such an investment needs to be considered alongside the timeline in which short-haul air travel is expected to decarbonise,” says the report.

It also argues that the gap over time between air and rail CO2 emissions will be reduced as new short-haul hybrid-electric aircraft start to be used on regional routes by 2030 and becoming more widespread by 2040. “As the routes most likely to decarbonise first, short-haul flights within Europe will play a significant role in rolling out lower carbon disruptive technologies and thereby accelerating wider aviation decarbonisation,” commented the associations.

Overall, concludes the report, all these factors need to be taken into account in deciding on the optimal policy for short-haul aviation in Europe. “Providing a range of transport options and encouraging intermodality between them is likely to offer the best solution from a social, economic and environmental perspective.”

The 2020 study carried out for campaign group Transport and Environment found that no European plan exists to improve the speed and quality of international rail services on distances between 200 and 1,000 km. Proposed improvements of railway services mainly focus at national level, with some exceptions for cross-border connections, which reflects the organisation of the railway sector in national companies and a strong involvement of national governments.

The study looked at the benefits of having high-speed rail between most large European cities, as well as the net speed of trains increasing by 10% on all connections competing with aviation and 50% more night trains to offer an alternative for daytime aviation trips. It concluded that around 4 to 7 MtCO2 from intra-European aviation may be avoided by a modal shift from air to rail if these approaches could be met. This corresponds with 6-11% of the CO2 emissions from intra-EU-31 aviation and with 2-4% of CO2 from all aviation fuel consumption in EUR-31, alongside the added benefit of reducing aviation’s non-CO2 climate impacts. To achieve these emission reductions would require both to improve speed and quality of international rail services and to discourage air travel.

A white paper published last year by global consultancy Egis, ‘The future of aviation in a world of sustainable travel’, argued that while high-speed rail projects boast many economic and social benefits, they come at a cost correlated to the transport distance and network, with a need for physical infrastructure along the route and the physical restrictions of geography and urban areas. As most projects today need to be started from scratch, this exposes governments and financers to lengthy returns on investments, considerable risks and high costs. The UK’s High Speed 2 500km rail project linking the north and south of England has an estimated $233 million cost per km, more than twice originally budgeted.

By contrast, while air transport requires significant infrastructure at points of arrival and departure (airports) and to a certain extent along the route (air navigation services), it can currently offer considerably larger economies of scale and greater flexibility at less of a financial and commercial risk than high-speed rail, says Egis.

However, it acknowledges the size of high-speed rail networks is growing considerably in Europe, with Spain, France, Germany and Italy adding a total of 800 high-speed trains to the network by 2030 and for over €100 billion to be invested on an EU level. In parallel, the European long-distance passenger-rail market is going through a phase of mass liberalisation through a regulatory overhaul that will present incumbents and new entrants with the opportunity to open new untapped routes between towns, cities and countries.

High-speed trains are being considered as a viable substitute to short-haul flights more seriously than ever before, said the paper.

However, said William McMaster, Senior Consultant, Aviation at Egis and author of the paper: “While a modal shift from air to rail is increasingly considered as a means of reducing transport emissions, the idea is not as simple as it sounds.

“We have seen opinion polls in Europe showing that the population generally favours short-haul flight bans, and an even greater majority support a carbon tax on flights. Yet paradoxically, only one in two travellers would be willing to take a greener mode of transportation if it took longer than the typical flight – showing that more people want action taken than are willing to act themselves. This suggests demand alone may not be a strong driver for change.”

Yet the major investment and regulatory liberalisation that are taking place in the high-speed rail sector have seen highly disruptive effects on air transport routes, pointed out McMaster. Following 25 years of Eurostar services connecting London with Paris in 2 hours and 16 minutes, a 44% reduction in airline seats (pre-pandemic) has resulted over a period during which air passenger numbers grew by over 200%, he reported, with similar trends elsewhere in the world, notably China.

“However, road and air transport investments could be more attractive than high-speed rail when physical aspects like geography or the economics of public budgets come into play,” he added. “The economic characteristics and overall lower net present value of high-speed rail mean that these networks may struggle to provide a compelling business case.”

The demand for SAF is high but supply remains limited as facilities are still under construction, and production in many cases is years away. But since last year, several oil companies have started producing SAF through co-processing, which is giving SAF supply a boost. In July 2021, NetJets Europe became the first customer to purchase Air bp’s ISCC PLUS certified SAF produced through co-processing of waste fats and used cooking oil in bp’s Castellon refinery in Spain. Other oil companies have followed in rapid succession to announce SAF production through co-processing, including Phillips 66 (UK), TotalEnergies (France), OMV (Austria), Eni (Italy) and bp (Germany). Phillips 66 has just supplied British Airways with a first batch of SAF produced at its Humber Refinery in the UK under a multi-year agreement. Why are the big oil companies choosing this route? Susan van Dyk takes an in-depth look at co-processing, what it means, who is doing it and what volumes of SAF are produced this way.

Andreea Moyes, Air bp’s Global Aviation Sustainability Director, explains her company’s rationale for co-processing: “As an integrated energy company, our ambition is to be a net-zero company by 2050 or sooner and to help the world get to net zero. Part of this is cutting the carbon intensity of the products we sell, such as jet fuel. We believe that all technologies and pathways, including co-processing, are needed to help the industry decarbonise.”

Co-processing is the simultaneous processing of biobased material, such as fats, oils and other feedstocks, with fossil-based feeds in refinery infrastructure. Using an existing refinery can offer benefits in terms of cost savings and carbon reduction as it removes the need to build dedicated processing units. The high market demand for SAF is playing a role in refinery decisions to co-process.

Explained Fabian Wedam, Head of Aviation at OMV Group: “Market demand for sustainable products is increasing sharply in the short to mid term and large scale dedicated SAF production units require a significant lead time for construction.” Co-processing is a stepping stone since existing assets can be used and only limited investments are needed, he said. Co-processing allows OMV to access the growing market for sustainable products in the short term using existing assets and infrastructure in OMV’s refineries. Last December, OMV signed an agreement to supply Austrian Airlines with 1,500 tonnes of SAF produced at its Schwechat Refinery during 2022.

Oil companies have the resources and expertise to produce SAF through co-processing using existing refinery infrastructure and limited investment. “Utilising the existing refinery infrastructure and their links to existing supply networks play an important role in increasing the supply of SAF,” said Moyes. The bp refinery in Lingen has started production of SAF from used cooking oil, marking the first industrial production facility in Germany using co-processing to produce SAF from waste and residues.

Co-processing enables an oil company to quickly become relevant in a net-zero world. According to Bernardo Fallas, Director of Corporate Communications at Phillips 66, “co-processing is one of the ways the Humber Refinery is positioning itself as a refinery of the future.” Phillips 66 believes markets for lower-carbon products are growing, he said. The agreement with British Airways demonstrates its Humber Refinery’s ability to supply them. The airline has just announced it has taken delivery of the first batch of SAF produced by the refinery, which it says is the first commercial-scale SAF to be supplied in the UK (see article). The blended fuel will be supplied by pipeline to several UK airports, including London Heathrow.

“We were the first in the UK to co-process waste oils to produce renewable fuels and now we will be the first to produce SAF at scale,” said Darren Cunningham, Lead Executive UK and General Manager for Phillips 66’s Humber Refinery. “We’re currently refining almost half a million litres of sustainable waste feedstocks a day, and this is just a start.”

Fallas added the Humber Refinery recently increased renewable fuel produced through co-processing from 1,000 bpd to 3,000 bpd, and the refinery aims to expand renewable fuels capacity to 5,000 bpd by 2024.

So what are the current volumes of SAF supplied through co-processing by others in the market? Air bp’s Moyes indicated her company has already produced more than 5,000 barrels per day (bpd) of biofuels (approximately 200-250 million litres total volume of biofuel, although SAF is not the only product) at three refineries through co-processing and aims to triple production by 2030 across these sites. According to Wedam, the planned production of SAF by the OMV Group for 2022 will be 2,000 tonnes, or about 2.3 million litres, of co-processed SAF.

The potential volumes of SAF that a refinery can produce through co-processing is currently limited by ASTM D1655. The standard only permits co-processing of 5% vegetable oils or waste oils and fats, and Fischer-Tropsch synthetic liquids for SAF production. Although 5% may seem a small amount, it could still be considerable if the scale of refinery operations is considered. Bp’s Castellon and Lingen refineries each have a capacity of about 100,000 barrels per day, so 5% amounts to 5,000 bpd (about 200-250 million litres per year).

However, indicated Steve Csonka, Executive Director of the Commercial Aviation Alternative Fuels Initiative (CAAFI) in the US, the 5% “current maximum co-processing volumetric limits are being assessed by a standing ASTM Task Force for possible increase, with broader voting to be accomplished upon the Task Force’s completion in the coming months.”

Moyes confirmed: “Air bp is leading the Task Force seeking to increase the sustainable aviation fuel content of traditional jet available from refineries co-processing renewable feedstocks. The hope is to raise the limit from 5% to 30% to benefit customers and global supply.” Increasing the feedstock limits for co-processing are likely to have a significant impact on the volumes of SAF that could be supplied via this route.

SAF produced through co-processing can be certified as sustainable and is also recognised under CORSIA as an eligible fuel. According to Air bp, the SAF produced through co-processing and supplied to Netjets received ISCC PLUS certification. The SAF had an attributed saving of around 80% carbon emissions over its lifecycle compared with conventional jet fuel based on a mass balance approach. It should be noted that this value is only calculated based on the renewable content in the finished fuel. ISCC has developed a guidance document on the certification of co-processing to assist companies. Various methods or a mixture of methods are permitted to calculate the bio-yield, including radiocarbon 14 analysis, to ensure that only the renewable content is counted.

All the co-processing activities mentioned used fats and oils feedstocks, in most cases waste fats and used cooking oils (UCO). The types of feedstock are currently restricted under ASTM D1655 and limited to fats and oils, and Fischer-Tropsch synthetic liquids. FT syncrude is not currently used in co-processing as it is not commercially available at this time. Other feedstocks may be permitted in future if ASTM certification is achieved, usually a very rigorous process.

“Feedstock availability, as well as reliability of supply and quality, will be one of the key challenges in the future,” said OMV’s Wedam. “Already today, the market for SAF-suitable feedstock is very competitive. Lipid feedstocks will not be sufficient once the aviation industry moves further towards carbon neutrality.”

Feedstock challenges

The challenge with future availability of waste oils and fats feedstock for SAF production has been confirmed in an ICF report, ‘Fueling net zero’. Renewable diesel and biodiesel compete for the same feedstock, and significant expansion of renewable diesel facilities will soon place a constraint on supply.

According to Moyes, bp recognises that “increasing feedstock availability is an important part of increasing overall SAF production and there are two elements to this. Firstly, as most commercial production today uses HEFA feedstocks, increasing these in the short-term is key. In support of this, bp recently entered into a 10-year strategic agreement with Nuseed enabling Nuseed to accelerate the expansion of its Carinata sustainable production programme.

“Secondly, bp plays an ongoing role in researching and developing the technologies required to bring the different SAF production technology options to commercial production. This widens the feedstocks that can be used. For example, bp and Johnson Matthey have developed a simple-to-operate and cost-advantaged Fischer-Tropsch technology that can operate both at large and small scale to economically convert synthesis gas, generated from sources such as municipal solid waste and other renewable biomass, into long-chain hydrocarbons suitable for the production of SAF. Using all technology options, we believe there is enough feedstock availability to meet the industry’s SAF requirements.”

Other feedstocks that have great potential for co-processing are bio-oils/biocrudes produced through technologies such as fast pyrolysis (bio-oils), catalytic pyrolysis or hydrothermal liquefaction (HTL, biocrudes). Unlike fats and oils, these biocrudes can be produced from wastes such as forest or agricultural residues that are available in far greater volumes. However, these technologies are at various stages of technology readiness.

The recently completed Pyrocell plant in Sweden, using BTG Bioliquids’ fast pyrolysis technology, has started producing bio-oil, which will be co-processed by Preem at the Lysekil refinery in Sweden to produce renewable diesel and gasoline. Note that the feedstock limitations under ASTM D1655 for SAF production do not apply to other fuel products. Preem, considered the leader in co-processing activities, has co-processed 30% tall oil methyl esters into drop-in fuels for more than a decade. Following a revamp last year, Preem’s Gothenburg refinery is currently able to co-process 95% tall oil methyl esters and tallow, according to Fredrik Hellesöy, Strategic Business Development Manager at Preem. This highlights the unlimited potential of co-processing to produce significant volumes of low-carbon intensity fuels.

Due to the current feedstock limitations under ASTM D1655, Preem is not producing SAF, but if the 5% limit is increased to 30%, SAF production will become economically feasible, said Hellesöy. For Preem, co-processing is just a step on the way to full conversion, he stated.

Co-processing can increase the supply of sustainably certified SAF in the short-term at current co-processing limits and could become more significant if these limits are increased, and other feedstocks are certified under ASTM. Using existing refinery infrastructure allows for more rapid production of SAF as construction of new facilities proceed. At the same time, it is part of the long-term business strategies of oil companies for a net-zero future.

“This strategy secures long-term business in an ever-changing world and supports the company’s commitment to a sustainable energy future,” said Fallas at Phillips 66.

Added Martin Thomsen, CEO, Air bp: “We believe SAF is one of the aviation industry’s key routes to reducing carbon emissions, and ISCC PLUS certified SAF is the first step towards developing new refining and commercial solutions, including those that achieve CORSIA certification, to keep decarbonising our offers for our aviation customers. Co-processing is an important step in replacing fossil fuel with renewable feedstocks within refineries.”

Photo: The bp refinery in Lingen, Germany (© bpPLC)

Susan van Dyk

GreenAir Correspondent

www.svdconsulting.ca

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