A recent hybrid meeting of high-level representatives at ICAO has led to cautious optimism that the UN agency’s member states could reach a collective agreement at their forthcoming Assembly on a long-term aspirational goal (LTAG) of net zero carbon emissions from international aviation by 2050. In a concluding summary of the meeting (HLM-LTAG) held in Montreal, ICAO and its member states were encouraged to “strive to achieve” the goal in support of the Paris Agreement’s temperature aims, recognising that it should allow for the differing capabilities and circumstances of countries. The meeting’s outcomes will now be considered by ICAO’s governing Council before a resolution can be put forward at the 41st Assembly starting late September. The aviation industry has already adopted a net zero 2050 target and the sector’s Air Transport Action Group described the meeting as a significant step forward. A senior US official close to the negotiations said it was a positive development in the lead up to the Assembly. However, some important countries remain opposed to the goal with China saying at the end of the meeting it was “completely dissatisfied” with the outcome.

ICAO has been studying the “feasibility” of a LTAG since requested to do so by member states in 2010, which resulted in a major report by the Council’s environmental technical committee (CAEP) published in March, following two years of work by 280 experts that covered long-term trends, the emissions reduction potential of new technologies and fuels, as well as the cost implications (see article). Outside its remit were recommendations of what the goal should be or how residual emissions – those emissions not reduced by in-sector means – should be accounted for in order to reach net zero.

The HLM-LTAG, with representatives attending in-person or virtually from 104 member states and 15 international organisations, considered inputs from states and international organisations covering the different scenarios and options for in-sector CO2 reductions, based on the latest technological innovations, new types of aircraft and operations, and an increased global production capability for sustainable aviation fuels. No discussions took place on market-based measures, such as ICAO’s CORSIA out-of-sector carbon offsetting scheme, even though under the CAEP report’s most ambitious scenario, the net zero by 2050 goal cannot be achieved by in-sector emissions reductions alone.

A major challenge that has faced negotiators at ICAO over many years on climate goals is reconciling differences between developed and developing countries over the governing principles and responsibilities for dealing with emissions from international aviation. Countries like China, India and Russia have objected to ICAO’s mid-term goal of carbon neutral growth and have so far not joined CORSIA’s voluntary phases. China has always contended the UN climate principle of common but differentiated responsibilities and respective capabilities (CBDR) must take precedence over the non-discrimination and equal treatment principle set out in the Chicago Convention that underpins ICAO.

“CBDR is the cornerstone for all countries to establish wide international cooperation to address climate change,” said a working paper (WP/23) submitted by China for the HLM-LTAG. “ICAO’s efforts to conduct a feasibility analysis of any proposed LTAGs shall be aligned with the principle of CBDR.” Another paper submitted by China, together with India, Russian Federation and Saudi Arabia, said: “The developed nations must take [the] immediate lead in reducing carbon emissions and provide adequate implementation assistance to others; and recommend that ICAO as part of LTAG should make building assistance mechanisms [a] priority, and provide developing countries with adequate technical, funding and capacity-building, so as to strengthen the efforts of developing countries to address international aviation and climate change.”

While the concluding document from the HLM-LTAG specifically mentions a long-term aspirational goal of net zero carbon emissions by 2050, each state “is urged to contribute to achieving the goal in a socially, economically and environmentally sustainable manner and in accordance with national circumstances” and “contribute to the LTAG” within its own national timeframe. China has indicated a target of achieving carbon neutrality “before” 2060 and India has pledged to reach it by 2070.

Recognising that the largest potential impact on reducing aviation in-sector CO2 emissions will come from fuel-related measures, ICAO and its members states are encouraged to work with industry on new aircraft technologies and implementing enhanced air and ground operations, as well as with relevant stakeholders on research, development and deployment of sustainable aviation fuels, lower carbon aviation fuels and other cleaner energy sources for aviation. The document acknowledges substantial financial investments will be required and invites ICAO “to further consider the establishment of a climate finance initiative or funding mechanism under ICAO, while addressing the possible financial, institutional and legal challenges, and report to the 42nd Session [in 2025] of the ICAO Assembly.”

A working paper submitted by the EU and other ECAC states suggested the ICAO Voluntary Environment Fund “should be more visible” and states be encouraged to contribute to it, “whilst earmarking contributions for specific ICAO activities on LTAG”. A working paper presented by Brazil, India, Nigeria, Russian Federation and Sudan, and supported by some Latin American countries, recommended the establishment of a Multilateral Fund for Sustainable Aviation under the control of ICAO that would provide public and private stakeholders in developing countries with financing, capacity-building and technology transfer to help achieve an LTAG. An information paper from Australia, Costa Rica and the United Kingdom proposed the establishment of a Climate Finance Initiative, led by ICAO “as a trusted facilitator”, to bring states, industry, finance institutions and the investment community together to support, in particular, the most vulnerable developing states to access private sector financing.

ICAO set up a well-received programme to help developing states with their introduction of the CORSIA carbon offsetting scheme, called the Assistance, Capacity-building and Training for CORSIA (ACT-CORSIA). In June it established a similar programme for sustainable aviation fuels (ACT-SAF) and it is now recommended by the HLM to be extended to add support for the implementation of other emissions reduction measures in an ACT-LTAG programme. “Additionally, ICAO is encouraged to promote the voluntary transfer of technology, in particular for developing countries and states having particular needs, to enable them to adapt to cutting-edge technology and enhance their contribution to achieve the LTAG,” said the HLM-LTAG concluding text.

The outcome, described as a compromise by a number of states participating, was welcomed by the cross-industry Air Transport Action Group (ATAG), which has been urging ICAO states to adopt an LTAG at their 41st Assembly in line with the sector’s own established net zero by 2050 goal. It said a globally-aligned policy environment would bring stability of direction and certainty to bring about needed investments in new fuels and decarbonisation technologies.

“These negotiations are challenging as the different approaches of states are explored. But the effort to come together around a common goal of net zero has been encouraging and lays the groundwork for fruitful discussions at the Assembly,” said ATAG’s Executive Director, Haldane Dodd.

“Aviation decarbonisation is a huge challenge that needs investment and innovation from the industry, but also a coordinated approach with ICAO and its member states to set the appropriate policy frameworks required for success.”

In closing remarks to the four-day HLM-LTAG meeting, ICAO Secretary General Juan Carlos Salazar said: “Recovering from the effects of the pandemic and combatting climate change go hand-in-hand. As a global sector, aviation has a golden opportunity to show leadership as we ‘build back better’, aiming towards a sustainable decarbonised future.”

A full report of the meeting is available here. The ICAO Assembly runs from 27 September to 7 October.

Top photo: ICAO building

Bottom photo (ICAO): Closing session of HLM-LTAG

Annual residual CO2 emissions from international aviation – those emissions that remain after in-sector reduction efforts – could range from 200 million tonnes (Mt) to 900 Mt by 2050, according to a major study by ICAO’s Committee on Aviation Environmental Protection (CAEP). The completed report provides the results of two years of technical work by 280 experts from around the world to explore the feasibility of a long-term global aspirational goal (LTAG) for international civil aviation CO2 emission reductions. Described as the most comprehensive and complex study of its kind, the analysis provides long-term trends and emissions reduction opportunities from operations, new aircraft technologies and future fuels and energy sources against a backdrop of traffic demand forecast scenarios and the climate science. The results show a heavy reliance on sustainable fuels for the most optimistic outcome on in-sector reductions. A decision on whether to adopt a long-term emissions reduction goal is expected to be taken at ICAO’s next triennial Assembly that starts in late September.

The report was adopted “unanimously” at the CAEP/12 meeting in February, according to CAEP Chairperson Urs Ziegler. Its main findings have been presented in an informal online briefing to State members of ICAO’s governing Council. In moves to become a more open and transparent organisation, the briefing, which included initial reactions and questions from Council members about the findings, has been made available publicly on ICAO TV.

ICAO adopted a resolution at its 37th Assembly in 2010 requesting the Council to explore the feasibility of a long-term goal for international aviation “through conducting detailed studies assessing the attainability and impacts of any goals proposed, including the impact on growth as well as costs in all countries, especially developing countries …”. In each subsequent Assembly climate resolution, the Council has been requested to continue the work on the goal’s feasibility.

Briefing Council members on the new report, Ziegler said: “I would like to underline that CAEP stands unanimously behind it and it is important CAEP noted no further work was needed in this area as it would not bring any fundamentally new insights or results that would go beyond what has already been evaluated. There are many other reports out there but none has gone as deep as our experts have done in the last two years. Everything we have proposed in this report is both feasible and attainable.”

A feature of the CAEP studies is that its forecast scenarios on air traffic and fleet evolution have been extended beyond 2050 to 2070. The results have been calibrated against the IPCC’s AR6 scientific report last year on the allowed global CO2 emissions for limiting the global mean temperature increase to 1.5°C or 2°C.

The CAEP LTAG Task Group developed a methodology involving three integrated scenarios – IS1, IS2 and IS3 – to represent a low, mid and high degree of aspiration related to readiness and attainability against a baseline (IS0). The least ambitious scenario (IS1) shows residual emissions of around 950 MtCO2 in 2050 (around 160% of 2019 CO2 emissions} from international aviation, after a total reduction of 39% in 2050 against the baseline as a result of in-sector incremental improvements in technologies (-20%) and operations (-4%), plus new fuels (-15%). The mid ‘increased/further ambition’ scenario (IS2) shows around 495 MtCO2 in residual emissions in 2050 (80% of 2019 CO2 emissions), with a 68% reduction in 2050 emissions from the baseline through technologies (-21%), operations (-6%) and fuels (-41%). The ‘aggressive/speculative’ (high) scenario (IS3) forecasts residual emissions of around 200 MtCO2 in 2050 (35% of 2019 CO2 emissions), with an 87% reduction in 2050 from the baseline through technologies (-21%), operations (-11%) and fuels (-55%).

The three scenarios therefore show the potential for CO2 reductions from in-sector emissions is substantial, although none reach zero emissions, even up to 2070, pointed out Ziegler. Even with a 100% replacement of conventional jet fuel with novel fuels, there are life-cycle emission considerations. However, drop-in advanced fuels are expected to have the largest impact in driving overall reductions by 2050. The analysis shows hydrogen is not expected to make a significant contribution to overall emissions reductions before 2050, largely because hydrogen power was considered appropriate to short-haul operations whereas the bulk of international aviation emissions (ICAO is not responsible for domestic aviation emissions) were from long-haul flights, but may increase afterwards if technically feasible and commercially viable, says the report.

The analysis shows advanced tube and wing aircraft have a clear potential to improve the fuel efficiency of the international aviation system, with an incremental contribution from aircraft with unconventional configurations. The emissions reductions from technology are expected to grow after 2050 as these aircraft penetrate the fleet.

CO2 emissions in 2050 after in-sector emissions reductions from technologies, operations and fuels were modelled against low, medium and high international aviation traffic forecasts. For IS1, CO2 emissions in 2050 are estimated to range from 730 MtCO2 to 1160 MtCO2; for IS2 the range is 420 MtCO2 to 590 MtCO2; and for IS3 the range is 150 MtCO2 to 260 MtCO2. The IS3 scenario demonstrates the critical importance of the contribution from novel fuels to decouple the growth in traffic from its CO2 emissions, says the report.

The costs of LTAG

Using a cost minus baseline approach, CAEP assessed the cumulative costs and investments associated with the integrated scenarios for the period 2020 to 2050. Costs and savings were assessed from technology, operations and fuels measures across stakeholders. Investments required from States in R&D to support aircraft technology developments could be as high as $870 billion in the IS2 and IS3 scenarios, with OEMs adding a further $350 billion. Investments from fuel suppliers were estimated to total $1.3 trillion (IS1) to $3.2 trillion (IS3) across the 30-year period. Costs and investments for ANSPs were estimated at $11-20 billion and for airports $2-6 billion across LTAG scenarios towards the implementation of operations measures. Under the IS3 scenario, a further $100-150 billion would be required towards investments in infrastructure at airports for hydrogen aircraft.

Airlines should benefit, found the analysis, from $710-740 billion in reduced operating fuel costs as a result of aircraft technology improvements, subject to a requirement for incremental fleet investments. A further $210-490 billion could be saved in reduced operating fuel costs from operational measures associated with $40-155 billion of implementation costs. Overall incremental fuel related costs (minimum selling price of novel fuels minus conventional jet fuel price) for airlines against the three integrated scenarios are estimated at $1.1 trillion (IS1), $2.7 trillion (IS2) and $4 trillion (IS3) cumulatively over the period.

CAEP acknowledges LTAG may result in some increases in operating costs being passed on to passengers. There may also be significant regional variations in the production and uptake of fuels due, for example, to regional availability of renewable energy and feedstocks, it adds.

CAEP was not tasked with consideration of the goal itself or out-of-sector emissions reductions, such as from market-based measures, but did look at the potential technical aspects of LTAG implementation, without prejudging future decisions on the goal. It suggests State Action Plans may be used for States to report progress towards a goal and if a goal was adopted, it could conduct future work, for example on possible metrics and reporting mechanisms. ICAO may need to review any goal to ensure it remains appropriate, it says, with perhaps a triennial review process similar to that for CORSIA. It also highlights a possible need for State capacity building and assistance that could include workshops, assistance on monitoring and measuring CO2 emissions and an overarching training programme like ACT-CORSIA.

Backed by other Council members during a Q&A session after the briefing, ICAO Council President Salvatore Sciacchitano congratulated CAEP on its “incredible” work and described the report as “impressive”, adding it would help to better inform the Council in its understanding. Ziegler recommended the full report, said to run to around 500 pages, be made available publicly, which Sciacchitano said would be a decision for the Council.

Some Council members said the report should be published as soon as possible and believed the findings had demonstrated the feasibility of a long-term goal. Other members expressed concerns over the potential costs of a LTAG and feared this would fall disproportionately on developing States and impact aviation growth in those countries.

Jane Hupe, ICAO’s head of environment, told the briefing that all States had approved the temperature goals of the Paris Agreement and they applied not just to individual States but also to all sectors, including aviation. “We have to comply and are required to have more ambitious goals,” she said, adding that there were already signs of a bottom-up reaction by governments and regions on policy decisions, which ICAO had to respond to at a global level. She said a LTAG would require looking again at the ambition of ICAO’s CORSIA offsetting scheme, which is designed to run until 2035 with a carbon-neutral growth goal.

A decision on LTAG will be taken at the 41st Assembly, which has now been extended to run over three weeks, rather than the normal two. It will now take place as a hybrid event between September 27 and October 14.

Before the Assembly, a special high-level meeting (HLM) of State representatives has been convened on the feasibility of a LTAG between July 20 and July 22, intended to be held in-person in Montreal and also online, subject to the Covid situation. It is expected to be immediately preceded by a two-day stocktaking event to share with delegates the latest relevant information. A Small ad-hoc Group comprising 13 Council representatives has been established that will play an important role in facilitating the drafting of a proposal for the HLM.

As a precursor to the HLM, ICAO is also holding a series of five regional virtual events for Member States starting on March 28 as part of the LTAG consultative process. Called the LTAG Global Aviation Dialogues (LTAG-GLADS), they aim to raise awareness of ICAO’s LTAG work and facilitate an exchange of views, in particular on reaching a decision on LTAG.

Update March 22: The report is now available to download at https://www.icao.int/environmental-protection/LTAG/Pages/LTAGreport.aspx

Photo: ICAO Council Chamber

Counterintuitively, the global pandemic has catalysed the aviation sector’s approach in a very positive way to climate action despite going through the worst period in aviation history, said Haldane Dodd, the incoming Executive Director of the cross-industry Air Transport Action Group at its 2021 Global Sustainable Aviation Forum. Momentum had gathered pace over the past 18 months with real climate policy developments and a major push had taken place on sustainable aviation fuels (SAF), he said, citing that since the start of Covid-19, over 6.3 billion litres of new SAF purchasing commitments had been made by airlines globally, around the same amount committed across the previous six years. However, Dodd acknowledged the decarbonisation transition will not be easy. It needed, he said, clear direction “from the top” and called for the “overdue” long-term climate goal to be adopted by States at next year’s ICAO Assembly. In an opening address, ICAO Council President Salvatore Sciacchitano said the post-Covid outcome should not be a reversion to business as usual and bold sustainability commitments to building back better and much stronger “must now be the order of the day.”

Sciacchitano stated aviation required a strategic, long-term approach to climate change and that States at the 2019 ICAO Assembly had requested the governing ICAO Council to continue to explore the feasibility of a long-term global aspirational goal for international aviation.

“We’ve accordingly broadened our umbrella to include all relevant stakeholders, made sure the best expertise is being applied to the long-term goal’s data and scenarios, and we’re pursuing a transparent and inclusive process of advance consultation with States,” he reported. “Important contributions to our long-term goal assessment process have been made by the 2020 and 2021 Stocktaking Seminars we’ve hosted on aviation in-sector CO2 emission reductions. Thousands of participants have joined us for these events, indicating how front of mind this issue is for so many today, and industry has been eager to make use of the seminars as the platforms for their announcements on some ambitious net zero commitments.”

He said the events had showcased many new aviation developments relating to advanced and novel aircraft technologies, operational improvements both in the air and on the ground, and opportunities for scaling up SAF.

“The potential of these innovations in reducing CO2 emissions is undeniable, and while the pace of them is also impressive, I am here today to call on all stakeholders to collectively do much more,” he told delegates to the virtual event. “Governments can help to promote and, when appropriate, subsidise private sector innovation, but the true responsibility and capacity to innovate in air transport will always rest with the manufacturers, operators and system managers who design and fly the aircraft and manage their safe course through our skies.”

He called for the recovery from the pandemic to show a “spirit of cooperation and common purpose” to leverage emission reductions and the eventual elimination of emissions. “I believe that innovation has already demonstrated the promise that our sector can continue to expand its services and deliver systemic and sustainable prosperity and mobility benefits to societies all over the world, even as we continue to decrease overall sectoral emissions,” he said.

A political session during the Forum focused on efforts to reach an agreement at ICAO on the long-term aspirational emissions reduction goal. Ross Adams, Australia’s Permanent Representative at ICAO, said a lot of technical and analysis work had taken place over the past two years within the Committee on Aviation Environmental Protection (CAEP) and would continue up to the next Assembly later in 2022. CAEP is looking at credible pathways, he said, for achieving in-sector emission reductions, along with a range of scenarios based on technical feasibility and attainability.

“The aim is not to tell Member States what the goal should be but rather to provide all the information they need to make an informed decision about a long-term goal, how we could get there and what the options are when this comes before the Assembly,” he said. “The pleasing aspect has been the deliberative and inclusive approach ICAO has taken on this work and also the increasing engagement from both Member States and industry in the process. Certainly, challenges lie ahead but the momentum is building for collective action between States and industry.”

Angie Ahmed Abdallah Mostafa, the Representative of Egypt on the ICAO Council, said that although many discussions had taken place in the Council on the target, explanations were still needed on how it could be achieved and there were different points of view on the Council, where many States were focused on the recovery from the global pandemic. The long-term goal process would require technology transfer, capacity building and financing of new technology and infrastructure, she said.

“ICAO Member States need to clearly understand what is at stake and what are the impacts,” she said. “We need a fair goal that takes into account the principles of ‘Common but differentiated responsibilities’ (CBDR) and ‘Special circumstances and respective capabilities’ (SCRC). The goal should not be a ‘one size fits all’ but if there is a goal that can suit everyone, maybe we can move faster.”

The United States’ Principal Deputy Assistant Secretary for Aviation and International Affairs, Annie Petsonk, said the US under the Biden administration had a strong commitment on aviation and climate change, and was looking forward to participating in the discussions leading up to the Assembly next year.

“With the economy-wide net zero by 2050 climate target set by President Biden this year, the US is moving into a position of leadership at ICAO, not only on climate but across the board,” she said.

“ICAO though faces an enormous challenge and its credibility is on the line,” she warned. “It is 25 years since ICAO was handed the task of addressing GHG emissions from international civil aviation in 1997 by the Conference of the Parties. We recognise the technology challenges but if ICAO is able to identify and agree on a clear long-term aspirational goal then that would make an enormous difference in pointing the direction and the goals for engineers, entrepreneurs and innovators all over the world to direct their energies in the aviation sector towards meeting that goal. It can also help demonstrate to countries that it can deliver jobs, new developments at home and benefit local communities.”

Tim Johnson, Director of the Aviation Environment Federation, which is a member of the ICSA group of NGOs represented at ICAO, added it would be only 28 years to 2050 by the time of the Assembly next year and just 25 by the following Assembly. “We can’t afford to miss this opportunity. We hear from industry about long-term planning, creating certainty and getting the right investment, and this will take all the intervening years between now and 2050. There is public expectation and ICAO really has to seize this moment and deliver an ambitious long-term goal.

“Not only do we want a zero-carbon industry, however, we also need an industry with a zero climate impact to take into account aviation’s non-CO2 effects as, after all, it’s a temperature-based goal we’re working towards.”

Introducing a session to showcase new technology innovations, aeronautical pioneer and Chairman of the Solar Impulse Foundation, Bertrand Piccard, said having a clean aviation sector by 2035 was a reasonable goal. “Those who say it is impossible will look as stupid as those who made fun of the Wright Brothers before their first flight in 1903.”

He said 20% of today’s aviation emissions could be cut through operational procedures such as flying direct routes, continuous descent approaches, optimised fuel consumption and electric taxiing. The remaining 80% should be compensated for by airlines with immediate effect, he said. “This may shock you,” he told delegates, “but I believe all CO2 emissions emitted by aviation must be reabsorbed somewhere else. The CORSIA offsetting scheme is not enough. Taking 2019 as a benchmark while the rest of the world is taking 1990 as theirs, is stimulating the ecological resistance against aviation.

“It is vital for the future of aviation to recover from the Covid-19 crisis but it is also crucial the cost of CO2 from every flight is charged on the passenger ticket,” he said. “This won’t kill aviation but it will show a lot is being done to solve the problem and we can be carbon neutral immediately if airlines decide to do so. I love aviation and it’s not only for the environment that we have to do it, it’s for the future of aviation itself.”

Photo: ICAO