We haven’t made as much progress as we wanted, or is needed, on decarbonising the aviation sector, IATA Director General Willie Walsh said in his end-of-year industry briefing to the media in Geneva. Blame was attached to governments and big oil producers for the slow investment in sustainable aviation fuel facilities, with anticipated SAF production in 2024 falling significantly short of IATA’s own expectations. Aircraft and engine manufacturers also came in for criticism over supply chain challenges that had resulted in a big shortfall of new, more fuel-efficient aircraft deliveries this year, with the result that the global fleet was on average older than ever, leading to environmental and economic consequences. However, the airline industry as a whole is on the road to a full recovery from the pandemic and global passenger numbers in 2025 are expected to pass the five billion mark for the first time, although the sector’s CO2 emissions may also reach an all-time high.

Commenting on efforts to decarbonise the airline sector at IATA’s annual Global Media Day, Walsh said: “We needed to build on the slow progress that we have seen so far, which we had expected to improve in 2024 but we’re not at the levels we had hoped to be and we need to see greater awareness on the part of governments around the world.

“This isn’t just to do with sustainable aviation fuels, it’s about the wider transition to a net zero global economy in 2050. We’re not asking for special treatment for the airline industry, we’re just looking for the same support other industries have received in their energy transition.

“We need governments to recognise that they have a huge role to play. This can’t happen by the efforts of the airline industry alone. It must involve every player to ensure we hit the critical net zero emissions target in 2050.”

Meanwhile, the global airline industry itself is enjoying a return to the good times after Covid-19, with profitability likely strengthened still further in 2025 despite ongoing aircraft and engine supply chain challenges. Net profits are expected to be $36.6 billion in 2025 on revenues that will exceed $1 trillion for the first time – an increase of 4.4% from 2024 – and a net profit margin of 3.6%.

“This will be hard-earned as airlines take advantage of lower oil prices while keeping load factors above 83%, tightly controlling costs, investing in decarbonisation and managing the return to more normal growth levels following the extraordinary pandemic recovery,” said Walsh. “All these efforts will help to mitigate several drags on profitability that are outside of airlines’ control, namely persistent supply chain challenges, infrastructure deficiencies, onerous regulation and a rising tax burden.”

Passenger numbers are expected to reach 5.2 billion in 2025, a 6.7% rise compared to 2024 and the first time that this number will have exceeded the five billion mark.

Passenger demand (RPKs) is expected to grow by 8.0% in 2025, which is ahead of a 7.1% expected expansion of capacity (ATKs). Aircraft departures are forecast to reach 40 million, an increase of 4.6% from 2024, and the average passenger load factor is anticipated at 83.4%, up 0.4 percentage points from 2024.

IATA says its public opinion polling showed 41% of surveyed travellers said they expect to travel more in the next 12 months compared to the last 12 months, 53% expected to travel at the same frequency and just 5% said they expect to travel less.

Cargo volumes are expected to reach 72.5 million tonnes, a 5.8% increase from 2024.

A less welcome increase is in the average age of the global aircraft fleet as this has a negative impact on fuel efficiency, and therefore emissions intensity, as older aircraft are retained longer. According to Marie Owens Thomsen, IATA’s Chief Economist and SVP Sustainability, the long-term average age of the global fleet over the period since 1990 had been 13.6 years, whereas in 2024 the average age had reached 14.8 years, a record.

This is seen largely as a consequence of the supply chain issues, with new aircraft deliveries falling sharply from the peak of 1,813 aircraft in 2018. The estimate for 2024 deliveries is 1,254 aircraft, a 30% shortfall on what was predicted going into the year. In 2025, deliveries are forecast to rise to 1,802, well below earlier expectations for 2,293 deliveries. IATA foresees further downward revisions in 2025 “as quite possible”. The backlog for new aircraft has reached 17,000 planes, it says, which would take 14 years to fulfil at present delivery rates, although this should shorten over time.

“Supply chain issues are frustrating every airline with a triple whammy on revenues, costs and environmental performance,” said Walsh. “Load factors are at record highs and there is no doubt that if we had more aircraft they could be profitably deployed, so our revenues are being compromised. Meanwhile the ageing fleet that airlines are using has higher maintenance costs, burns more fuel and takes more capital to keep it flying.”

IATA says fuel efficiency, excluding the impact of load factors, was unchanged between 2023 and 2024 at 0.23 litres/100 ATKs, against a long-term trend (1990-2019) of annual fuel efficiency improvements in the range of 1.5 to 2.0%. If load factors were taken into account, fuel efficiency showed a marginal year-on-year improvement, from 4.3 litres/100 RPKs in 2023 to 4.2 litres/100 RPKs in 2024.

“The entire aviation sector is united in its commitment to achieving net zero carbon emissions by 2050. But when it comes to the practicality of actually getting there, airlines are left bearing the biggest burden. The supply chain issues are a case in point,” said Walsh. “Manufacturers are letting down their airline customers and that is having a direct impact of slowing down airlines’ efforts to limit their carbon emissions. If the aircraft and engine manufacturers could sort out their issues and keep their promises, we’d have a more fuel-efficient fleet in the air.

“We’ve been patient so far but that patience is running out and the situation is unacceptable. We are dealing with quasi monopoly suppliers who are abusing their position and this is an issue we need to look at.”

He added the performance of aircraft engines had also been “nowhere near where they should be.”

Against a backdrop of falling jet fuel prices, airlines’ cumulative fuel spend is expected to be $248 billion in 2025, a decline of 4.8% despite a 6% rise in the amount of fuel expected to be consumed – 107 billion gallons. Fuel is forecast to account for 26.4% of operating costs in 2025, down from 28.9% in 2024.

IATA’s expected 2025 jet fuel consumption of 107 billion gallons translates into around 324 million tonnes, so global CO2 emissions from the airline sector are likely to pass the one billion tonne mark in 2025 for the first time.

The cost of purchasing carbon credits to comply with ICAO’s CORSIA offsetting scheme, which started coming through in 2024, is estimated by IATA at $700 million, and forecast to rise to $1 billion in 2025. The costs for the limited quantities of sustainable aviation fuel available are estimated to add $3.8 billion to industry fuel costs in 2025, up from $1.7 billion in 2024.

On SAF, Walsh doesn’t foresee a linear growth in use although expects exponential growth beyond 2035.

“But we need to get building SAF production facilities today,” he said. “We can use existing refineries for co-processing, where blending is currently limited to 5% but has the potential to increase to 30%. This would have a major impact on capital expenditure requirements and could be achieved reasonably quickly.

“Where we have not seen as much progress as we would have liked is investment in new biorefineries. We need to call out those big fuel producers who have pulled back from their commitments to produce sustainable fuels – they need to play their part, we can’t just rely on new entrants.”

There is evidence, he said, that where jet fuel suppliers had been mandated to include SAF but had not done so and fined as a consequence, they had passed on the cost to airlines. “They don’t care if they get fined and this is a clear case where mandates make no sense whatsoever. There is zero environmental benefit. Politicians aren’t asking themselves if these measures are going to lead to the intended results. It’s disappointing and there needs to be more honesty in this debate.”

According to analysis by IATA, SAF production volumes in 2024 reached 1 million tonnes (1.3 billion litres), double the 0.5 million tonnes produced in 2023, and accounted for 0.3% of global jet fuel production and 11% of global renewable fuel. It says this is “significantly” below its previous projection for 2024 of 1.5 million tonnes, which it partially attributes to key SAF producers in the US pushing back their ramp up to the first half of 2025.

SAF production in 2025 is expected by IATA to reach 2.1 million tonnes, or 0.7% of total jet fuel production.

“SAF volumes are increasing, but disappointingly slowly,” commented Walsh.

Editor’s note: The second part of this report from IATA’s end-of-year industry analysis, which will focus on SAF, will follow next month.

Photo: IATA’s Marie Owens Thomsen and Willie Walsh

Christopher Surgenor

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The Jet Zero Council, a collaboration with industry set up by the previous UK government, has been relaunched as the Jet Zero Taskforce, with the aim of streamlining aviation decarbonisation priorities as the sector strives to reach its net zero emissions by 2050 target. The Taskforce will support the production and delivery of sustainable aviation fuels and zero emission flights, as well as look at how to improve aviation systems to make them more efficient. It will also explore the sector’s demand for GHG removals and the non-CO2 impacts of aviation. The UK’s SAF mandate, which takes effect from January 1, has now officially been signed into law, requiring 22% of all jet fuel to come from sustainable sources by 2040. The government has also started a public consultation on the implementation of ICAO’s global carbon offsetting scheme CORSIA, how it will be regulated in the UK and the penalties for non-compliance.

The restructured Jet Zero Taskforce will feature an annual CEO-level meeting chaired by the UK’s Transport Secretary that will set priorities for tackling aviation emissions and review progress. Members will include the Secretary of States for Business and Trade, and Energy Security and Net Zero, plus CEOs of major airlines such as easyJet, British Airways and Virgin, airports like Heathrow and Manchester, as well as senior representatives from fuel producers, trade bodies and universities.

Below the executive Plenary level will be a smaller Expert Group to support the Taskforce’s priorities, which will be jointly chaired by the Aviation Minister, currently Mike Kane, and Holly Boyd-Boland, VP of Corporate Development at Virgin Atlantic. “By pinpointing key barriers to decarbonisation and directing a select number of smaller action groups to tackle these challenges, this level will be crucial to the delivery of the Taskforce’s objectives,” explained the Department for Transport, which acts as the secretariat.

“Taking up the role of industry chair is a huge privilege and I look forward to working alongside government, with its renewed focus and leadership of the Jet Zero Taskforce,” said Boyd-Boland. “Together, we can harness the ambition across industry to achieve net zero 2050.”

Added Tim Alderslade, CEO of trade body Airlines UK: “Collaboration with government and across the whole sector and supply chain is vital to making the rapid progress we need, and we look forward to working with the new Taskforce to help usher in a new era of sustainable air travel, with all the jobs and investment that entails.”

The first plenary meeting of the Taskforce took place on December 4.

A main priority is to support the development, production, commercialisation and use of sustainable aviation fuels in the UK and also globally. The government will invest up to £450,000 ($570,000) to support aviation decarbonisation measures in other countries, such as helping developing states develop policy and access financing for SAF, as well as to offset carbon emissions from international flights. The announcement coincided with the visit to the UK of the ICAO Secretary General, Juan Carlos Salazar, and the signing of a memorandum of understanding covering all areas of UK-ICAO cooperation.

The UK SAF mandate, which applies from 1 January 2025, has now passed into law. Starting at 2% of total UK jet fuel demand, equal to around 230,000 tonnes, the use of SAF is intended to increase on a linear basis to 10% in 2030 and then to 22% in 2040, after when the obligation will remain at 22% “until there is greater certainty regarding SAF supply,” says the government. The supply of HEFA-derived fuels will be capped after the first two years of the mandate, which will become more stringent over time. A separate obligation (0.2% of jet fuel demand) on power-to-liquid fuels kicks in from 2028 that reaches 3.5% of total jet fuel demand in 2040.

The mandate also introduces tradeable certificates for the supply of SAF, with additional certificates awarded for fuels with higher GHG emissions savings, and a buy-out price mechanism will operate to allow suppliers to discharge their obligation. It is intended that the value of certificates will narrow the gap between the price of kerosene and the cost of SAF, thereby encouraging the production of SAF.

However, the government acknowledges that the mandate alone may not provide sufficient long-term certainty to maximise investment in SAF production in the UK. It has therefore committed through legislation to introducing a revenue certainty mechanism by the end of 2026 to provide investor confidence.

CORSIA implementation

The government has also opened a public consultation on its proposals for how the UK will implement and regulate ICAO’s global Carbon Offsetting and Reduction Scheme for International Aviation (CORSIA), which requires airlines to offset CO2 emissions on international routes above a given baseline (85% of 2019 emissions from international aviation). The consultation seeks feedback on proposed penalties for non-compliance.

It also includes proposals on how CORSIA can be implemented while maintaining commitments under the UK Emissions Trading Scheme (ETS), including how flights from the UK to Europe can be prevented from being subject to both schemes and measures “to ensure airlines are not unfairly burdened”.

Said the government: “This approach also aims to avoid unnecessary price increases for passengers, ensuring the UK’s decarbonisation efforts do not negatively impact those who rely on air travel.”

The UK is one of 129 countries now taking part in CORSIA and, with the mandatory phase starting in 2027, is offering support to other countries to help them participate in the scheme. The UK has already trained 11 other countries in Africa and other regions to apply the scheme.

“The UK is already at the forefront of global efforts to address climate change and carbon pricing schemes play a vital role in decarbonising aviation,” said Aviation Minister Mike Kane.

“The government is committed to supporting the aviation industry and with our Plan for Change at the heart, we’re helping the UK transition to a cleaner future in the most cost-effective way. We welcome all views on how airlines can continue participating in these crucial initiatives.”

The consultation has been welcomed by IATA. “We support the UK government’s plans to adopt and implement the scheme, and encourage countries to prepare for CORSIA implementation in full alignment with the ICAO CORSIA Standards and Recommended Practices, and to make the needed carbon credits available,” commented Marie Owens Thomsen, SVP Sustainability & Chief Economist.

The UK is implementing CORSIA in two parts, the first of which is the requirement to monitor, report and verify (MRV) CO2 emissions, and has already been incorporated into UK law. The second, on which the government is now consulting, concerns the requirement to offset CO2 emissions, including the applicability and calculation of offsetting requirements and cancellation of CORSIA credits, called Eligible Emissions Units (EEUs), and also the interaction between CORSIA and the UK ETS.

Penalties and enforcement for non-compliance with CORSIA’s MRV requirements are consistent with UK ETS legislation and the government proposes this approach is also followed for CORSIA’s offsetting requirements to ensure uniformity. Therefore applying a civil penalty of £100 ($130) for each CORSIA EEU that an aeroplane operator fails to cancel on time, as well as other non-compliance penalties.

The consultation will run until 10 February 2025.

Update 19 December: The Department for Transport has just released a 170-page technical guidance document and also a compliance document on the UK SAF Mandate.

Photo: Heathrow Airport

Christopher Surgenor

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Announced sustainable aviation fuel projects represent over three billion gallons of annual domestic production capacity in the United States by 2030, surpassing the target set under the US SAF Grand Challenge target, finds a new report from the US Department of Energy (DOE). The announced capacity correlates to over 10% of projected US jet fuel demand, over $44 billion of investment and more than 70,000 jobs across the SAF value chain, says the report, which will be presented at COP29 in Baku on November 21. The biggest barrier to SAF scale-up remains its price, which is currently two to ten times more than fossil jet fuel, says DOE, depending on the feedstock and conversion technology used to produce it. In October, DOE’s Loan Programs Office announced conditional commitments to issue over $1.4 billion dollars in loan guarantees each to renewable fuels companies Montana Renewables and Gevo Net-Zero 1 to help finance their SAF production facilities.

Aviation represents 3.3% of total US GHG emissions and jet fuel consumption is forecasted to increase by 2-3% annually through to 2050, says DOE, with SAF “the only viable solution” to decarbonising the sector in the near-term. The SAF Grand Challenge, established in September 2021 by government and industry, set a target of three billion and 35 billion gallons of annual SAF production in 2030 and 2050 respectively, representing 10% and 100% of projected US jet fuel demand. Current US SAF production is around 2,000 barrels per day, or about 20 million gallons per year.

The ‘SAF Pathways to Commercial Liftoff’ report looks at the near-term potential for SAF and analyses the technical and commercial readiness of several SAF production pathways, highlighting what DOE describes as “the tangible, actionable steps that both the public and private sector can take to make the United States a global leader in SAF production as soon as 2030.” Part of the DOE’s Liftoff series, it looks at market challenges, investment needs and critical pathways for deploying sustainable solutions at scale.

In order to achieve “SAF liftoff” by 2030, the report acknowledges it will require accelerated deployment of production technologies and feedstocks that are now readily available. In parallel, investments in emerging SAF technologies, such as next-generation feedstocks and innovative SAF conversion technologies, are “essential” to ensure 100% of jet fuel can be sustainable by 2050, it says.

To help make SAF more cost competitive with fossil jet, federal and state incentives are playing a necessary role but the report finds that sustained price premiums have limited airlines’ voluntary offtake.

“Long-term offtake agreements will establish the demand certainty needed both to improve financing terms and stimulate investment across the SAF value chain,” says DOE. “Airlines and producers can extend terms or increase volumes by activating third-party offtakers that are willing to pay for the environmental attribute (carbon abatement) of this low-carbon fuel to reduce their Scope 3 emissions. This activation will require the incorporation of SAF in Scope 3 emissions standards.”

The report adds that SAF liftoff will require international policy coordination, including alignment on carbon accounting, feedstock traceability and book-and-claim systems.

“With the aviation sector growing each year, there is no better time to invest in solutions that are both technologically and commercially ready today,” commented US Secretary of Energy Jennifer Granholm. “The latest in DOE’s Liftoff series, this report lays out the critical innovations and investments needed to drive down costs and further scale SAF production – paving the way for a cleaner, more competitive aviation sector that will benefit communities and businesses nationwide.”

DOE will host a webinar on November 21 featuring its senior leaders, including Dr Vanessa Chan, Chief Commercialization Officer and Director of the US Department of Energy’s Office of Technology Transitions (OTT), to outline the findings of the report.

The two commitments announced by DOE’s Loan Programs Office last month included a $1.44 billion loan guarantee to Montana Renewables, which if finalised, will help finance the expansion of a renewable fuels facility in Great Falls, Montana, that will utilize vegetable oils, fats and greases to produce SAF, renewable diesel and renewable naphtha. The other is a $1.46 billion loan guarantee to Gevo Net-Zero 1, to help finance the first-of-a-kind, large-scale corn starch-to-jet fuel facility in the United States. Located in Lake Preston, South Dakota, this facility will source US-grown, low-cost, low-carbon field corn and will use carbon capture and sequestration and renewable power to lower emissions.

Photo (Delta): Shipments of camelina-derived SAF produced by Montana Renewables were delivered via pipeline in October to Delta’s hubs at Minneapolis-St Paul and Detroit Metropolitan airports

The International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO) has signed an agreement with the International Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA) to boost financing opportunities for sustainable aviation fuels and other cleaner aviation energy projects. The Memorandum of Cooperation was signed at the recent G20 Energy Ministerial meeting in Brazil and will allow the exploration of pathways to operationalise the ICAO Finvest Hub by facilitating the identification of financial resources for scaling up SAF, lower carbon aviation fuels (LCAF) and other cleaner energy solutions. ICAO estimates that around $3.2 trillion in investments will be needed for cleaner aviation fuel production alone if its long-term aspirational goal (LTAG) of net zero emissions from international aviation by 2050 is to be achieved. ICAO is an active participant at the COP29 climate meeting, which starts today in Baku, with the UN agency’s Council President addressing a side event.

While its Assistance, Capacity-building and Training for SAF (ACT-SAF) programme already provides implementation support such as initial feasibility and economic studies, ICAO says it Finvest Hub, launched last year at its CAAF/3 conference in Dubai, is expected to play a crucial role in facilitating the matchmaking between the financing needs of project developers and the financing priorities of States, multilateral development banks and private financers. As well as acting as a platform to connect projects with potential public and private investors, the Finvest Hub aims to facilitate funding from financial institutions, encourage new and additional funding, and support developing countries and States with particular needs.

“The aviation clean energy transition is fundamental to achieving our net-zero long-term aspirational goal, as it has the potential to contribute to the majority of required emissions reductions,” said ICAO Secretary General Juan Carlos Salazar, commenting on the MoC with IRENA, the lead intergovernmental agency for the global energy transformation to a sustainable energy future. “This new cooperation is an opportunity to accelerate the energy transition of the aviation sector worldwide. ICAO is fully committed to supporting the four building blocks needed to achieve this goal – policy and planning, regulatory frameworks, implementation support and financing.”

Responded Francesco La Camera, IRENA Director-General: “Through the IRENA Energy Transition Accelerator Financing (ETAF) Platform, we find climate finance solutions dedicated to advancing the global energy transition by facilitating investment. The transition needs all hands on deck and this cooperation is a clear expression of it.”

The ETAF platform is backed by the United Arab Emirates and alongside financial support from the OPEC Fund, has mobilised commitments amounting to $1.15 billion.

The ICAO Secretary General also met last month with senior representatives from multilateral development banks and other high-level officials in Washington DC to promote the Finvest Hub. The discussions were held alongside annual meetings of the World Bank Group and the International Monetary Fund (IMF). He and ICAO’s Legal Affairs and External Relations Director, Michael Gill, also held direct meetings with officials from the World Bank, IMF, the European Investment Bank, the Inter-American Development Bank and also with industry body Airlines for America.

At a roundtable held during the G20 meeting, Salazar said 330 facilities globally are now producing SAF, with 125 airports distributing it, and more than 50 billion litres of SAF are covered by offtake agreements. He reported over 40 national or regional policies on SAF have been adopted or are under development and over 40 SAF feedstocks are now recognised under ICAO’s CORSIA scheme.

Through the global framework agreed at CAAF/3 (the third ICAO Conference on Aviation and Alternative Fuels) a year ago, ICAO and its member states “will strive to reduce international aviation CO2 emissions by 5% by 2030 through the use of aviation cleaner energies,” said Salazar.

In a keynote at a roundtable held during the Washington DC meetings, Annie Petsonk, Assistant Secretary for Aviation and International Affairs at the US Department of Transportation, reaffirmed US support for the CAAF/3 outcomes.

ICAO is participating in a number of aviation-related events at COP29, which starts today (November 11) in Baku, Azerbaijan, and has a dedicated COP29 page on its website. It is hosting a briefing session today in the SDG Pavilion, ‘Implementing a clean energy transition for international aviation in support of the UN Sustainable Development Goals’, which will include a keynote address by the ICAO Council President, Salvatore Sciacchitano, a premiere presentation of a video on climate change to mark ICAO’s 80^th anniversary and an ACT-SAF signing with an ICAO member state. It will also include an overview of ICAO progress on international aviation and climate change by Jane Hupe, who heads ICAO’s environmental protection and climate activities, and a State perspective on clean energy and capacity building for international aviation by a representative from the host country’s government.

The UN agency will also take part in a number of events on Energy Day (Friday 15 November) and Transport Day (Wednesday 20 November). Its COP29 page will be updated regularly during the two-week course of the climate meeting.

Photo: ICAO

UPDATE: Recording below of the ICAO briefing session in support of the UN Sustainable Development Goals

Christopher Surgenor

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Analysis by Brussels-based pressure group Transport & Environment (T&E) has found that emissions from business flying by the pharma sector business dropped 21% in 2023 compared to pre-Covid 2019 levels. This compares to a fall in the business travel emissions of global consultancies by 46% and technology companies by 49% measured over the same period. T&E is leading a campaign, Travel Smart, to reduce corporate air travel emissions by 50% or more from 2019 levels, and says by flying less now, companies can make a big contribution to aviation sustainability. Business travellers make up some 12% of passengers but up to 75% of revenues on certain flights, so their choices have important leverage on the aviation industry, it argues.

“For the critical decade until 2030, the best way to reduce aviation emissions is to fly less, as the timing for scale-up of sustainable fuels and zero-emissions aircraft is currently post-2030, and offsetting has shown to be ineffective,” states T&E on its Travel Smart website.

“Consumers, investors and employees are more concerned by the impacts of climate change then ever before. If businesses fall out of step with expectations, their reputation is at risk. Demonstrating a commitment to sustainability and adopting planet-friendly travel policies will enhance their image, appeal and overall success.”

The latest analysis of 11 of the world’s major pharmaceutical companies could have seen a reduction as large as -44% if the two pharmas flying the most, Johnson & Johnson and Merck, had halved their emissions instead of reducing them by 10% in the case of the former and increasing emissions by 29% in the case of Merck, said T&E.

“Top flyers should be leading by example, not watering down efforts to reduce business flying,” commented Denise Auclair, head of the Travel Smart campaign at T&E. “What we’re seeing in the pharmaceutical sector is an extreme case of large polluters hampering the sector’s progress towards flying less, but we’ve seen that story some other times.”

The NGO believes sustained business flying reductions can only be assured through targets and says just four of the 11 companies analysed had set a business travel target. The four – Pfizer, AstraZeneca, Novo Nordisk and Roche – achieved emissions reductions ranging from 44% to 55%.

Its analysis of major global consulting firms found 12 of the 15 companies in its sample had set business travel targets, with Accenture, KPMG and SGS so far failing to do so, although the former had achieved a 71% reduction in 2023 compared to 2019, the highest of all the companies analysed.

“The overall trend is one of reduction in the aftermath of the pandemic where global travel came to a halt, and notably by those who previously were flying the most,” observes T&E. “However, the data shows that consulting companies are slowly creeping back towards pre-Covid levels.”

This trend is also mirrored in the technology sector, where the world’s biggest tech companies have halved their business flying compared with 2019 but those that have not set targets to reduce flying emissions, such as Alphabet, the parent company of Google, and Apple, were slowly returning to 2019 levels. On the other hand, India’s tech giant Wipro, a company that set a target of -55% by 2030, increased its reduction to -71%.

“Tech companies have claimed to be climate leaders for a long time and many have substantially reduced their business travel emissions, but if they want to be credible, they must set reduction targets,” said Auclair.

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Two Californian e-fuel startups, Infinium and Twelve, have received a joint total of up to $1.7 billion in funding and investment to help accelerate production and availability of sustainable aviation fuel. Brookfield Asset Management has committed to invest more than $200 million in Infinium’s Project Roadrunner that is under development in West Texas and up to an additional $850 million for deployment of other Infinium eFuels projects globally, all subject to pre-agreed metrics. This marks Brookfield’s first direct investment in SAF and the investor will also serve as lead in Infinium’s Series C Preferred Stock Offering. Twelve has received $645 million in funding, which includes $400 million in project equity led by TPG Rise Climate, $200 million in Series C financing and an additional $45 million in credit facilities from funders in the renewable energy sector.

Infinium produces eSAF through a proprietary process that combines water, waste CO2 and renewable energy to produce drop-in eSAF as well as eDiesel and eNaphtha. The company recently announced a strategic deal with American Airlines, in which American will purchase commercial volumes of its eSAF starting in 2026 produced by Project Roadrunner.

“Brookfield is a tremendous partner and we are thrilled to secure this additional capital as we scale eSAF production to meet the overwhelming demand from the aviation industry,” said Infinium CEO Robert Schuetzle.

“Our Project Pathfinder site was the first to bring commercial volumes of e-fuels to market and Project Roadrunner brings additional volumes to scale global supplies. As our airline partners continue to push for more SAF and decarbonisation options, Infinium remains committed to accelerating production to help meet those demands.”

Brookfield joins existing backer Breakthrough Energy Catalyst, which previously committed $75 million in funding for Project Roadrunner.

“Our investment is structured to provide the capital Infinium needs to accelerate the production of SAF to meet the growing demand from corporate customers while generating attractive risk-adjusted returns for us,” explained Jehangir Vevaina, Managing Partner at Brookfield, which has around $1 trillion of assets under management. “In addition to Roadrunner, Infinium has a large pipeline of well-positioned projects to help meet the demand for the structurally short e-fuels market, and we are looking forward to the opportunity to participate in the development of further e-fuel projects through follow-on investments.”

Infinium claims Project Pathfinder in Corpus Christi, Texas, is the world’s first commercial-scale facility making drop-in ready e-fuels for heavy transportation applications and chemical processes, and is the first in North America to produce e-fuels that have received ISCC PLUS certification. Pathfinder integrates Infinium’s novel fuel production technology using patented catalysts with on-site electrolysers, a state-of-the-art laboratory, logistics and delivery mechanics to produce, validate and distribute e-fuels in what it describes as fewer steps than others in the industry.

The company says it has more than a dozen additional projects under development across the United States, the EU, Japan and Australia.

Meanwhile, funding raised by Twelve will be used towards the completion of the company’s inaugural AirPlant One eSAF facility located in Moses Lake, Washington, which is expected to begin production in 2025. Twelve’s patented technology will be used to produce SAF derived from biogenic CO2, water and renewable energy sources, which achieves claimed lifecycle emissions up to 90% lower than conventional fossil jet fuel. Twelve recently raised $45 million in total loans from two lenders – the first a $25 million construction loan from clean energy investment firm Fundamental Renewables, the other a $20 million green loan from multinational bank SMBC.

TPG Rise Climate, a $7.3 billion climate impact fund, has now committed up to $400 million in project equity financing to support the development of future AirPlants, which will supply Twelve’s E-Jet fuel to customers like Alaska Airlines and IAG, parent company of British Airways.

“We are drawn to companies and founders that have developed and proven unique solutions to complex problems,” said Jonathan Garfinkel, Managing Partner at TPG Rise Climate. “Twelve is a clear leader in CO2 conversion technology, which is a core part of the power-to-liquids technology stack, and the process we believe represents the long-term scalable solution for SAF production.”

TPG is leading Twelve’s $200 million Series C round alongside Capricorn Investment Group and Pulse Fund. A number of new and existing investors participated in the round, including Microsoft’s Climate Innovation Fund and Alaska Airlines’ investment arm, Alaska Star Ventures.

“We are excited to be a part of this round of forward-looking funders to make a more sustainable future for aviation possible,” said Diana Birkett Rakow, SVP Public Affairs and Sustainability at Alaska Airlines. “Over the last several years we have appreciated getting to know the team at Twelve. Together we are building a multi-level partnership to expand supply, mature the market for SAF and to soon use their E-Jet fuel in our operations.”

Responded Nicholas Flanders, CEO at Twelve: “Our financing strategy has been to build a comprehensive capital stack that enables us to deliver product to customers at scale while continually driving down costs. We’re proud to work with visionary financing partners and collaborators who share our commitment to deploying first of a kind technologies that address climate change at scale.”

Photo: American Airlines expects to purchase commercial volumes of Infinium’s eSAF starting in 2026

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E-fuels will be featured at Aviation Carbon 2024

A report by the University of Cambridge’s Aviation Impact Accelerator project sets out four actionable steps that are needed over the next five years to help the global aviation sector achieve net zero emissions by 2050. Despite ambitious pledges from governments and industry, the sector so far “remains dangerously off track” in its efforts, says the report, and insists the four goals must be implemented immediately, otherwise “the opportunity for transformation could be lost”. This would leave the world to face escalating climate impacts from a rapidly growing aviation sector that is projected to at least double its emissions by 2050. The four goals include removing aircraft contrails, implementing a new wave of policies aimed at unlocking efficiency gains, reforming sustainable aviation fuel policies and, finally, launching several moonshot technology demonstration programmes such as on long-haul hydrogen aircraft.

The report, ‘Five years to chart a new future for aviation’, is the work of the Aviation Impact Accelerator, a project led by the University of Cambridge and hosted by the university’s Whittle Laboratory and the Cambridge Institute for Sustainability Leadership (CISL).

While endorsing a net zero vision for the industry, “current efforts fall short in both scope and speed,” it says, arguing that some proposed solutions could potentially exacerbate the crisis, such as a heavy reliance on biomass for jet fuel without managing its environmental impact. “It is also crucial to address aviation’s broader climate impacts, including the formation of persistent contrails. The stakes have never been higher: urgent action is needed to shift the sector onto a sustainable path.”

Commented Professor Rob Miller, Director of the Whittle Laboratory: “Aviation stands at a pivotal moment, much like the automotive industry in the late 2000s. Back then, discussions centred around biofuels as the replacement for petrol and diesel – until Tesla revolutionised the future with electric vehicles. Our five-year plan is designed to accelerate this decision point in aviation, setting it on a path to achieve net zero by 2050.”

The plan involves immediately implementing four sustainable aviation goals that were originated during an inaugural meeting of the Transatlantic Sustainable Aviation Partnership held at MIT in the US in April 2023, with representatives from the UK, US and EU. They were further discussed at a roundtable hosted by the Sustainable Markets Initiative in the presence of King Charles III, and previewed at the opening of COP28.

• Goal 1: Dubbed Operation Blue Skies, it calls on governments and industry to create several ‘Airspace-Scale Living Labs’ to enable a global contrail avoidance system to be deployed by 2030.
• Goal 2: In 2025, leading governments should clearly commit about their intention to drive system-wide efficiency improvements and should work together with industry to develop strategies, so that by 2030, a new wave of policies can be implemented to unlock these systemic efficiency gains.
• Goal 3: In 2025, governments should reform sustainable aviation fuel policy development to adopt a cross-sector approach, enabling rapid scalability within global biomass limitations. By 2030, governments and industry should implement a demonstration and deployment strategy that enables SAF production to move beyond purely biomass-based methods, incorporating more carbon-efficient synthetic production techniques.
• Goal 4: In 2025, launch several high-reward experimental demonstration moonshot programmes to enable the focus on, and scale-up of, the most viable transformative technologies by 2030.

The report says goals 2 and 3 can be achieved with minimal new technology but require “robust and clear” market signals and swift policy action, whereas goals 1 and 4 “demand immediate efforts to push the boundaries of technology, creating new opportunities from 2030”.

Growing awareness and commitment to action are encouraging, believe the authors of the report. “Still, it is essential to match those professed concerns with decisive interventions over the next five years to create a credible path to net zero aviation by 2050,” they add.

The Aviation Impact Accelerator is a global initiative that brings together more than 100 experts from across the aviation industry to accelerate the sector’s transition to net zero emissions. Its goal is to develop interactive tools and models that assist stakeholders – governments, industry and the public – in understanding and exploring pathways to sustainable aviation.

“AIA modelling has drawn on the best available evidence to show that there are major challenges to be navigated if we’re to achieve net zero flying at scale, but that is possible,” said Eliot Whittington, Executive Director at CISL. “With focus and a step change in ambition from governments and business, we can address the hurdles, unlock sustainable flying and in doing so, build new industries and support wider economic change.”

Photo (University of Cambridge): Prof Rob Miller and King Charles III at the Whittle Laboratory facility

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British Airways is to purchase more than £9 million ($12m) worth of carbon removal credits in the UK and overseas as part of a six-year agreement with partner CUR8. The airline says the procurement of 33,000 tonnes of credits through its CUR8 portfolio makes it the largest carbon removals purchaser in the UK and the largest in the airline sector to date. It describes carbon removal as the process of removing carbon dioxide from the atmosphere and storing it safely for multiple decades and, ideally, centuries. The investment is part of a drive to accelerate BA’s climate change efforts towards 2030 and its wider plan to achieve net zero emissions by 2050. The airline forecasts that around one third of all its emissions reductions by 2050 will need to come from carbon removals. British Airways has also announced it has become a Global Alliance Member of The Earthshot Prize, founded by Prince William, which is awarded to five winners each year for their contributions towards environmentalism.

The carbon removal credits will come from projects in the UK, Canada and India. One scheme in Scotland will see CO2 emissions captured from whisky distilleries and repurposed into building materials and another, in multiple locations in the UK, uses an enhanced rock weathering technique to lock away carbon for thousands of years. Credits will also come from two companies specialising in “high-durability” reforestation projects that will increase the amount of forested land in Scotland and Wales.

The portfolio also includes Canadian carbon capture projects, which focus on carbon removal from rivers and oceans using alkaline rock particles, while in India, the airline is backing a biochar project that empowers female farmers while enhancing soil biodiversity and farm yields.

“While small in comparison to our total emissions, these projects are crucial in stimulating the carbon removals market,” said Carrie Harris, Director of Sustainability at British Airways. “By supporting pioneering solutions, we’re not only contributing to immediate progress but also laying the groundwork for the large-scale changes needed to meet our climate goals.”

In addition to the partnerships facilitated by CUR8, BA has also purchased a small number of carbon removal credits from Switzerland’s Climeworks, which operates the world’s two largest Direct Air Capture (DAC) plants in Iceland, with plans to expand internationally, and US-based 1PointFive that is developing a DAC plant in Texas.

Carbon removals are recognised by scientists, governments and regulators as a vital tool in helping to address climate change, insists the airline, “but the sector needs to be scaled up urgently”. Adds Harris: “There is no pathway to net zero for aviation without carbon removals.”

London-based CUR8 creates portfolios of carbon removal projects for clients such as Coca Cola and Standard Chartered Bank, as well as British Airways.

“The airline understands that carbon removals are not a nice-to-have, but an essential part of the aviation sector’s net zero journey,” said Marta Krupinska, CEO of CUR8. “We bring together the world’s leading scientists and climate software to help organisations source and manage carbon removals to help de-risk their net zero future. British Airways is a leading brand that recognises that with this early investment, it can help to make an impact not only for themselves but for the industry at large.”

According to carbon removal market reporting organisation CDR.fyi, airlines that have also embarked on the carbon removal credit purchase journey include All Nippon Airways, American Airlines and Virgin Atlantic.

Past recipients of The Earthshot Prize include carbon recycling company Lanzatech, which works with British Airways’ sustainable aviation fuel partner LanzaJet, and Notpla, a company specialising in biodegradable packaging that the airline has recently partnered with.

“By working with The Earthshot Prize, British Airways will be supporting the discovery, investment and acceleration of innovative and scalable solutions for people and the planet, ranging from alternative fuels to reducing single-use plastics,” commented the airline. “We hope to explore further collaborations with future prize winners.”

Photo: British Airways

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In association with British Airways, a deep-dive session on Carbon Removals will be held during Aviation Carbon 2024

Swedish hybrid-electric airplane maker Heart Aerospace has unveiled its first full-scale demonstrator, the Heart Experimental 1 (Heart X1), which will serve as a platform for the testing and development of the company’s regional 30-passenger ES-30 aircraft. Initially, the 32-metre wingspan X1 will be used for ground-based testing, focusing on charging operations, taxiing and turnaround procedures, with a fully electric first flight planned in Q2 2025. A pre-production X2 prototype is the next step to further mature the design and production methods, with a hybrid-electric flight scheduled for 2026. Heart has also announced other ES-30 developments that include completion of ground support tests with Braathens Regional Airlines, SAS and Swedavia, plus the addition of Malaysia-based AirAsia to its Industry Advisory Board. Meanwhile, UK-based Gen Phoenix has partnered with DOY Design to supply lightweight leather for the X1 passenger seats.

The X1 demonstrator was built almost entirely in-house at Heart’s Gothenburg facilities and reflects a strategy to develop both the design and production processes simultaneously, explained the company.

“We need to develop new methods to get net zero aerospace technologies to market faster,” said Anders Forslund, co-founder and CEO. “It is a testament to the ingenuity and dedication of our team that we’re able to roll out a 30-seat aircraft demonstrator with a brand-new propulsion system, largely in-house, in less than two years.”

In preparation for the first flight, Heart will test critical systems over the coming months by running hardware tests both on and off the airplane. The hybrid-electric X2 will demonstrate the company’s Independent Hybrid propulsion system. Heart is also to establish a pilot manufacturing plant to accelerate pototyping towards the manufacture of a fully conforming aircraft, with type certification of the ES-30 targeted by the end of the decade.

The electric zero-emission version will have a range of 200 kilometres, a hybrid-electric range of 400 kilometres and an extended range of up to 800 kilometres with 25 passengers. To date, Heart says it has 250 firm orders for the ES-30, with options and purchase rights for an additional 120 planes, and letters of intent for 191 more aircraft.

The ground support procedure tests carried out in collaboration with Braathens Regional Airlines, SAS and airport operator Swedavia, were conducted as part of the Swedish research project ELISE, which brings together technology companies with airlines and airports to foster the development of electric aviation infrastructure in the country.

The procedures tested at Säve Airport in Gothenburg included verification and testing of the charging procedure; evaluation of charging routines; onboarding and offboarding procedures for passengers and cargo; and ground support experience and maintenance routines.

The company has filed two EU design applications and one patent application for a new nacelle integration design that Heart says will significantly improve the flight characteristics of the ES-30, allowing it to operate on shorter runways. Manufactured in-house using automated composite technology, the design, in which the nacelle is centred on the wing, will be incorporated on the X2. By minimising the aerodynamic interference between the nacelle and the wing, it allows for a higher angle of attack and delaying stall. This improves lift generation during both cruise and landing phases, giving the ES-30 the ability to fly at lower speeds with greater aerodynamic efficiency.

“The operation of electric airplanes requires highly efficient aerodynamic designs and our research on propulsion integration centred on the wing has led to a concept that significantly outperforms conventional designs,” said Alain Cuenca, Senior Aerodynamics & Thermodynamics Engineer at Heart Aerospace.

Added Ben Stabler, Chief Technology Officer: “Developing innovative net zero aerospace technologies demands a revolution in product development and manufacturing, much like what we’ve witnessed in the automotive and space industries.”

Development of the X1 has been funded in part by grants provided by the Swedish innovation agency Vinnova. In August, Heart was selected for a $4.1 million grant by the FAA’s Fuelling Aviation’s Sustainable Transition (FAST) programme to develop the X2’s management system for the hybrid-electric propulsion.

New Industry Advisory Board member AirAsia aims to make air travel more accessible across the SE Asia region and to serve “underserved” communities, and has a long-term goal to cut its net CO2 emissions to 50% of 2005 levels by 2050.

“At AirAsia, we are committed to exploring new technologies that align with our focus on operational efficiency and sustainability,” said Capt Chester Voo, the group’s Deputy COO, Airline Operations. “While electric and hybrid-electric aircraft are still nascent in Asia, they represent a compelling future for sustainable air travel. We look forward to contributing our aviation experience and insights from this dynamic region to Heart Aerospace’s pioneering work.”

In collaboration with DOY Design, Gen Phoenix has supplied its recycled low-carbon leather product Essence to upholster the 30 passenger seats in X1. It offers an 83% lower carbon footprint than traditional leather “while maintaining the premium qualities of fine upholstery,” says Gen Phoenix. DOY Design’s Ultra-Slim seats used by Heart on the demonstrator have a thin structure and higher light levels.

“Our mission is to reduce our impact on the environment by adopting sustainable design practices and using materials like Essence, which offer both sustainability and quality,” said Gary Doy of DOY Design, whose seats recently received a Red Cabin Trinity Award for Best Sustainability Concept.

Top photo: The Heart Aerospace X1 demonstrator

Bottom photo: Interior of X1 with DOY Design seats upholstered with Gen Phoenix’s Essence leather

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French biomass to clean fuels technology company Haffner Energy has signed an agreement with Icelandic green hydrogen startup IdunnH2 to provide biogenic carbon for a 65,000 tonnes per year e-SAF facility located near Keflavik International Airport that IdunnH2 is developing. To create e-SAF, the facility will combine green hydrogen from Iceland’s renewable power grid with biogenic carbon from Haffner Energy’s patented biocarbon gasification technology. While the country has good access to renewable power, sourcing recycled carbon, ideally from a biogenic source, is a challenge as it is a costly gas to capture, transport and store. Haffner’s innovation supplies solid biocarbon – also known as biochar, a byproduct of its biomass thermolysis technology – and gasifying it onsite, which the company claims fundamentally changes the costs of e-SAF production.

“Biocarbon is far easier and cheaper to transport and store than CO2, which will make many e-SAF projects economically viable,” commented the company’s co-founder and CEO Philippe Haffner.

Added Marcella Franchi, Head of SAF at Haffner Energy: “We are excited to embark on this e-SAF project with IdunnH2 in Iceland, an ideal location for competitive hydrogen production. This agreement bridges the technological and geographical gap, paving the way for competitive e-SAF production with innovative technology.”

IdunnH2’s 300MW e-SAF facility in Helguvik is scheduled to start production in 2028, with green hydrogen coming from wind, geothermal and hydropower, and the SAF blended onsite with conventional jet fuel.

The partners say the production aligns with the EU’s SAF mandate and will supply the equivalent of 15% of Iceland’s projected total jet fuel demand in 2028 and allow airlines at Keflavik Airport to exceed the 2030 blending requirement. Icelandair has already committed to using up to 45,000 tonnes of SAF from the facility.

“The agreement with Haffner Energy will help us direct Iceland’s renewable power onto its aircraft fleet, to not only decrease emissions but also reduce the country’s import dependence, improve air quality around Keflavik Airport and bolster energy security,” said IdunnH2’s co-founder and CEO Audur Nanna Baldvinsdóttir.

Haffner Energy’s biomass thermolysis technological process produces renewable gas, renewable hydrogen and renewable methanol, as well as converting organic waste into sustainable aviation fuel. Its SAFNOCA technology allows the conversion of solid biomass residues or wastes into hydrogen-rich syngas that can be processed through the alcohol-to-jet (ATJ) or Fischer-Tropsch pathways.

The company is using its biomass agnostic technology to develop its own SAF production project at Paris-Vatry Airport, which will have an initial capacity of 30,000 tonnes of SAF per year, with the potential to triple future production. In June, it announced a collaboration with LanzaJet under which syngas produced by SAFNOCA will be converted into ethanol using LanzaTech’s carbon recycling technology and then into SAF using LanzaJet’s ATJ technology.

Photo: Keflavik International Airport

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