We haven’t made as much progress as we wanted, or is needed, on decarbonising the aviation sector, IATA Director General Willie Walsh said in his end-of-year industry briefing to the media in Geneva. Blame was attached to governments and big oil producers for the slow investment in sustainable aviation fuel facilities, with anticipated SAF production in 2024 falling significantly short of IATA’s own expectations. Aircraft and engine manufacturers also came in for criticism over supply chain challenges that had resulted in a big shortfall of new, more fuel-efficient aircraft deliveries this year, with the result that the global fleet was on average older than ever, leading to environmental and economic consequences. However, the airline industry as a whole is on the road to a full recovery from the pandemic and global passenger numbers in 2025 are expected to pass the five billion mark for the first time, although the sector’s CO2 emissions may also reach an all-time high.

Commenting on efforts to decarbonise the airline sector at IATA’s annual Global Media Day, Walsh said: “We needed to build on the slow progress that we have seen so far, which we had expected to improve in 2024 but we’re not at the levels we had hoped to be and we need to see greater awareness on the part of governments around the world.

“This isn’t just to do with sustainable aviation fuels, it’s about the wider transition to a net zero global economy in 2050. We’re not asking for special treatment for the airline industry, we’re just looking for the same support other industries have received in their energy transition.

“We need governments to recognise that they have a huge role to play. This can’t happen by the efforts of the airline industry alone. It must involve every player to ensure we hit the critical net zero emissions target in 2050.”

Meanwhile, the global airline industry itself is enjoying a return to the good times after Covid-19, with profitability likely strengthened still further in 2025 despite ongoing aircraft and engine supply chain challenges. Net profits are expected to be $36.6 billion in 2025 on revenues that will exceed $1 trillion for the first time – an increase of 4.4% from 2024 – and a net profit margin of 3.6%.

“This will be hard-earned as airlines take advantage of lower oil prices while keeping load factors above 83%, tightly controlling costs, investing in decarbonisation and managing the return to more normal growth levels following the extraordinary pandemic recovery,” said Walsh. “All these efforts will help to mitigate several drags on profitability that are outside of airlines’ control, namely persistent supply chain challenges, infrastructure deficiencies, onerous regulation and a rising tax burden.”

Passenger numbers are expected to reach 5.2 billion in 2025, a 6.7% rise compared to 2024 and the first time that this number will have exceeded the five billion mark.

Passenger demand (RPKs) is expected to grow by 8.0% in 2025, which is ahead of a 7.1% expected expansion of capacity (ATKs). Aircraft departures are forecast to reach 40 million, an increase of 4.6% from 2024, and the average passenger load factor is anticipated at 83.4%, up 0.4 percentage points from 2024.

IATA says its public opinion polling showed 41% of surveyed travellers said they expect to travel more in the next 12 months compared to the last 12 months, 53% expected to travel at the same frequency and just 5% said they expect to travel less.

Cargo volumes are expected to reach 72.5 million tonnes, a 5.8% increase from 2024.

A less welcome increase is in the average age of the global aircraft fleet as this has a negative impact on fuel efficiency, and therefore emissions intensity, as older aircraft are retained longer. According to Marie Owens Thomsen, IATA’s Chief Economist and SVP Sustainability, the long-term average age of the global fleet over the period since 1990 had been 13.6 years, whereas in 2024 the average age had reached 14.8 years, a record.

This is seen largely as a consequence of the supply chain issues, with new aircraft deliveries falling sharply from the peak of 1,813 aircraft in 2018. The estimate for 2024 deliveries is 1,254 aircraft, a 30% shortfall on what was predicted going into the year. In 2025, deliveries are forecast to rise to 1,802, well below earlier expectations for 2,293 deliveries. IATA foresees further downward revisions in 2025 “as quite possible”. The backlog for new aircraft has reached 17,000 planes, it says, which would take 14 years to fulfil at present delivery rates, although this should shorten over time.

“Supply chain issues are frustrating every airline with a triple whammy on revenues, costs and environmental performance,” said Walsh. “Load factors are at record highs and there is no doubt that if we had more aircraft they could be profitably deployed, so our revenues are being compromised. Meanwhile the ageing fleet that airlines are using has higher maintenance costs, burns more fuel and takes more capital to keep it flying.”

IATA says fuel efficiency, excluding the impact of load factors, was unchanged between 2023 and 2024 at 0.23 litres/100 ATKs, against a long-term trend (1990-2019) of annual fuel efficiency improvements in the range of 1.5 to 2.0%. If load factors were taken into account, fuel efficiency showed a marginal year-on-year improvement, from 4.3 litres/100 RPKs in 2023 to 4.2 litres/100 RPKs in 2024.

“The entire aviation sector is united in its commitment to achieving net zero carbon emissions by 2050. But when it comes to the practicality of actually getting there, airlines are left bearing the biggest burden. The supply chain issues are a case in point,” said Walsh. “Manufacturers are letting down their airline customers and that is having a direct impact of slowing down airlines’ efforts to limit their carbon emissions. If the aircraft and engine manufacturers could sort out their issues and keep their promises, we’d have a more fuel-efficient fleet in the air.

“We’ve been patient so far but that patience is running out and the situation is unacceptable. We are dealing with quasi monopoly suppliers who are abusing their position and this is an issue we need to look at.”

He added the performance of aircraft engines had also been “nowhere near where they should be.”

Against a backdrop of falling jet fuel prices, airlines’ cumulative fuel spend is expected to be $248 billion in 2025, a decline of 4.8% despite a 6% rise in the amount of fuel expected to be consumed – 107 billion gallons. Fuel is forecast to account for 26.4% of operating costs in 2025, down from 28.9% in 2024.

IATA’s expected 2025 jet fuel consumption of 107 billion gallons translates into around 324 million tonnes, so global CO2 emissions from the airline sector are likely to pass the one billion tonne mark in 2025 for the first time.

The cost of purchasing carbon credits to comply with ICAO’s CORSIA offsetting scheme, which started coming through in 2024, is estimated by IATA at $700 million, and forecast to rise to $1 billion in 2025. The costs for the limited quantities of sustainable aviation fuel available are estimated to add $3.8 billion to industry fuel costs in 2025, up from $1.7 billion in 2024.

On SAF, Walsh doesn’t foresee a linear growth in use although expects exponential growth beyond 2035.

“But we need to get building SAF production facilities today,” he said. “We can use existing refineries for co-processing, where blending is currently limited to 5% but has the potential to increase to 30%. This would have a major impact on capital expenditure requirements and could be achieved reasonably quickly.

“Where we have not seen as much progress as we would have liked is investment in new biorefineries. We need to call out those big fuel producers who have pulled back from their commitments to produce sustainable fuels – they need to play their part, we can’t just rely on new entrants.”

There is evidence, he said, that where jet fuel suppliers had been mandated to include SAF but had not done so and fined as a consequence, they had passed on the cost to airlines. “They don’t care if they get fined and this is a clear case where mandates make no sense whatsoever. There is zero environmental benefit. Politicians aren’t asking themselves if these measures are going to lead to the intended results. It’s disappointing and there needs to be more honesty in this debate.”

According to analysis by IATA, SAF production volumes in 2024 reached 1 million tonnes (1.3 billion litres), double the 0.5 million tonnes produced in 2023, and accounted for 0.3% of global jet fuel production and 11% of global renewable fuel. It says this is “significantly” below its previous projection for 2024 of 1.5 million tonnes, which it partially attributes to key SAF producers in the US pushing back their ramp up to the first half of 2025.

SAF production in 2025 is expected by IATA to reach 2.1 million tonnes, or 0.7% of total jet fuel production.

“SAF volumes are increasing, but disappointingly slowly,” commented Walsh.

Editor’s note: The second part of this report from IATA’s end-of-year industry analysis, which will focus on SAF, will follow next month.

Photo: IATA’s Marie Owens Thomsen and Willie Walsh

Christopher Surgenor

Editor

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Investment in scaling up global production of renewable fuels in the pursuit of the aviation industry’s Net Zero emissions target was at the forefront of discussions at this year’s Aviation Carbon conference in London. With Europe introducing from January sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) blending mandates, as well as monitoring requirements on aircraft non-CO2 impacts, industry concerns were raised over the complexity and cost of new regulations facing airlines. IATA’s SVP Sustainability and Chief Economist, Marie Owens Thomsen, criticised fossil fuel subsidies and the lack of investment by oil majors in the energy transition. Outcomes from the recent COP29, which have positive implications for ICAO’s CORSIA carbon scheme, and raising finance for SAF development, were central to a speech by the UN agency’s Secretary General, Juan Carlos Salazar.

As noted by Abdul Wahab Teffaha, Secretary General of the Arab Air Carriers Association during Aviation Carbon’s opening panel, one of the bugbears of airline associations is the prospect of a proliferation of regional mandates and schemes on the use of SAF by airlines. For example, he pointed to the EU’s and the UK’s SAF blending mandates that come into force from January 2025. The resulting “patchwork” would lead to an increase in costs and complexity for airlines, argued Teffaha.

Speaking to GreenAir after his speech, Salazar said that ICAO respects the sovereignty of any region if they chose to create their own schemes and regulations but stressed that the clear mandate given to ICAO was to address aviation’s carbon emissions at a global level and this resulted in CORSIA. “It is the only way for the international community to address CO2 emissions,” he noted.

For Salazar, the work being done by ICAO on aviation emissions is “a very solid basis to achieve our goal of net zero emissions by 2050…it is the way forward,” he said. “ICAO is steadily implementing CORSIA, and we are now moving from the voluntary to the mandatory phase. We are confident that the international community will continue its steady work on CORSIA and emission reduction policies as we create a very solid framework for the further advancement of the LTAG.”

As Salazar reminded delegates: “The landmark adoption of a long-term global aspirational goal (LTAG) of net-zero carbon emissions by 2050 during the 41st Session of the ICAO Assembly in 2022 settled an ambitious target for our industry. This goal recognises the urgent need to address climate change while acknowledging the vital role of aviation in global development.”

In addition, he added: “The success of the Third ICAO Conference on Aviation and Alternative Fuels held last year in Dubai, the CAAF/3, with its adoption of a Global Framework for SAF, Lower Carbon Aviation Fuels (LCAF),and Cleaner Energies, marked another significant step forward, setting out four key building blocks: Policy and planning; Regulatory framework; Implementation support; and Financing.

“The global target to achieve a 5% CO2 emissions reduction by 2030 through the use of SAF, LCAF and cleaner energies is also an ambitious, but achievable target with concerted effort. And the recently approved roadmap by the ICAO Council will guide our implementation activities, starting with the allocation of financial and human resources,” noted Salazar.

Obtaining the huge sums needed to develop a SAF industry was a constant theme during Aviation Carbon. According to Salazar: “Financing will be paramount for achieving our collective goals for a net zero future, this was the central focus of the discussions at COP29 last week.” This year’s UN climate change conference, COP29, took place the week prior to Aviation Carbon in Baku, Azerbaijan.

“The clean energy transition will require substantial financing. I am pleased to share that the ICAO Finvest Hub is well under development and our ambition is that it will be a crucial platform to facilitate investment partnerships, particularly for countries and regions that do not yet have SAF production capabilities,” explained Salazar.

“Our steady progress with the Finvest Hub is evidenced by our recent agreement with the International Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA). This co-operation, signed at the G20 Energy Ministerial meetings in Brazil last month, will significantly boost financing opportunities for sustainable aviation fuels and other cleaner aviation energy projects.

“The ICAO Finvest Hub will connect aviation decarbonisation projects with potential public and private investors, and beyond this matchmaking function, its value will lie in the collaboration between ICAO and financial institutions to fund projects,” said Salazar.

“The Finvest Hub is also an integral part of ICAO’s capacity-building and implementation support activities. More than 200 States and organisations are now part of ICAO’s Assistance, Capacity Building, and Training programme for SAF, known as ACT-SAF. This initiative provides crucial support for SAF development and deployment, offering training, feasibility studies, business implementation reports, support for SAF certification and policy development, and implementation of specific SAF projects for States,” Salazar told delegates.

“As we speak, more than 20 SAF feasibility studies and business implementation reports are under development. ICAO has a pivotal role in providing a harmonised, independent and robust regulatory framework for the environmental certification of cleaner aviation energies.

“I am pleased to inform you that currently 48 feedstocks are recognised under CORSIA. As States prepare their national policies for the aviation clean energy transition, adhering to this framework will ensure a level playing field for considering the environmental benefits of such fuels.

“Additionally, CORSIA continues as a crucial element in our basket of measures to reduce aviation’s carbon footprint.,” said Salazar. “Since 2019, all 193 ICAO member states are implementing the scheme’s monitoring, reporting and verification system. In addition, I’m delighted to acknowledge that 129 member states have confirmed their voluntary participation in the scheme subject to offsetting requirements in 2025, and we want more states to participate in future years.

“At its last session, the ICAO Council approved four additional programmes as eligible for CORSIA, ensuring that sufficient emissions units could be available for use in the scheme’s first phase,” said Salazar. The buying and selling of eligible emissions units through the carbon market is a crucial part of the functioning of CORSIA, but their availability has been limited up until now.

On this topic Salazar added: “The recent adoption of Article 6 of the Paris agreement at COP29 provides additional clarity in the way CORSIA eligible units can be authorised and cancelled, ensuring no double counting and stability for the voluntary carbon markets.”

Little control over fuel costs

IATA’s Marie Owens Thomsen, offering the airline perspective at Aviation Carbon, mused that as “complete price-takers” to the fuel suppliers, airlines have little control over what represents some 30% of their total costs. “The fantasy I harbour is that airlines can progressively take control over our own destiny and in-source more of their fuel supply,” she said. Her point was partly intellectual, but investing in jet fuel production is something various carriers are believed to be interested in.

She also noted that because aviation only takes 8% of global refined fossil fuel capacity, “the oil companies don’t need us for their profit optimisation.”

The health of the global economy, despite geo-political turmoil in the Middle East and war in Ukraine, is “strikingly stable”. With growth of 3.2% over the past two years and similar forecast into 2025 the economic backdrop is “super healthy”. This economic growth has seen oil prices dropping. “Anything under $80 a barrel is supportive of the global economy,” she noted.

However, Owens Thomsen questioned if today’s relatively low oil prices disincentivise investment in the move to renewable energy. They discourage the oil majors, she said, which have seen their stock prices rise on the back of lower oil prices, from investing in the energy transition. At the same time, lower oil prices have seen the stock prices of renewable energy industries “tank”.

“COP29 showed that the energy transition is a global problem. People need to understand that aviation is not a beast to be singled out,” she stated. “The real task is to switch from fossil fuels to renewable energies and we need to make money flow to the renewable energy industry. Imagine a world with ample energy supply that is cheap and renewable.”

One of the frequent questions at the two-day conference was whether the fossil fuel industry is investing enough in the energy transition. The answer was often it is not, mainly because it is not in its interests today to do so.

Owens Thomsen pointed to one of the impediments she believes is holding things back: the multi-billion-dollar subsidies given to the fossil fuel industry. “One of the discussions I struggle most to have is a conversation on fossil fuel subsidies,” she said.

This year’s Aviation Carbon 2024, co-organised by GreenAir, attracted a record 450 delegates from around 70 countries.

Photo (Shai Dolev): ICAO Secretary General Juan Carlos Salazar delivers the closing speech at Aviation Carbon 2024

Mark Pilling

Contributing Editor

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The International Air Transport Association (IATA) has urged South Africa’s new government to prioritise the development of sustainable aviation fuel to help meet surging global demand from airlines, while also creating a significant new economic driver for the nation. Speaking at IATA’s ‘Wings of Change Focus Africa’ conference in Johannesburg, Marie Owens Thomsen, the organisation’s SVP for Sustainability and Chief Economist, referenced a new study by the World Wildlife Fund, that concluded South Africa had plentiful feedstocks from which to produce SAF and estimated the nation could produce up to 4.5 billion litres annually. “South Africa has vast potential to become a leading SAF producer in the region,” she said. “More than a strategy in support of aviation’s decarbonisation, it is a strategy for economic development and should be a top priority for the new government.”

The Wings of Change conference coincided with the release of IATA data which showed that in May, Africa’s airlines collectively achieved a 14.4% year-on-year increase in demand, an 8.2% increase in capacity and a rise of 3.7 percentage points in average passenger load factor. Although Africa’s overall load factor is the lowest of any region, the percentage increase in May was the highest, reflecting IATA projections of strong long-term growth by South Africa’s aviation sector.

“South Africa’s aviation industry is poised for significant growth over the next 20 years, adding 345 million additional passenger journeys by 2043,” said Kamil Alawadhi, IATA’s Regional VP for Africa and the Middle East. “With aviation generating $6 in economic activity for every $1 spent, this expansion will inject billions into South Africa’s GDP and create thousands of new jobs.”

Thomsen reiterated global SAF production was a fraction of what the aviation industry needs to help meet its net zero emissions targets.

“That’s why it’s essential for governments of countries with production potential, such as South Africa, to embrace what is a unique win-win opportunity for economic development, energy transition and decarbonised air transportation,” she said. “Across agriculture, energy and transportation, new jobs and industries are waiting to be created that would not only help fight poverty but also contribute to greater energy independence.” 

The study by World Wildlife Fund (WWF) concluded South Africa had abundant feedstocks to help produce SAF, including low carbon by-products of sugarcane and biomass waste from cleared invasive alien plants, harvesting of which would also improve biodiversity and water security without competing with food production for land or water use.

“The WWF estimates that South Africa has the potential to produce between 3.2 and 4.5 billion litres of SAF annually,” said IATA.

“This will more than meet domestic fuel demand (1.8 billion litres) and present an export opportunity where policies will be essential for realisation. Achieving production at the higher range of potential would require the co-development of a green hydrogen capability.”

South Africa also had extensive experience in producing synthetic fuels, particularly via the Fischer-Tropsch conversion method, a multi-step chemical process through which biomass is converted to syngas, then transformed into jet or diesel fuel, said IATA.

As well, South Africa’s “robust” academic and research institutions had historically supported innovation and technology for production of fuels, while the country’s airports, including Johannesburg’s O.R. Tambo International Airport and Cape Town International Airport, were key hubs connecting the country internally, within Africa and beyond. 

IATA reiterated that South Africa had chaired the 2022 ICAO Assembly, during which governments agreed to a long-term goal aligned with the air transport sector’s commitment to pursue net zero carbon emissions by 2050, and said the role of SAF was emphasised by the ICAO CAAF/3 objective of achieving by 2030 a 5% average global reduction in aviation’s carbon emissions.

To progress SAF production in South Africa, IATA called upon the government to develop a four-point strategic plan.

It should expedite the development of production facilities by using existing refinery infrastructure for ‘brownfield’ investments such as conversions of existing plants or co-processing and encourage collaboration with the private sector and international partners to share resources and expertise.

Incentives should also be provided for research and development to inspire innovation that could drive down costs and lift SAF production volumes, added IATA, as well as to support the development of greenfield infrastructure such as biorefineries and green hydrogen production, and diversification of fuel source crops and production methodologies.

“It is important for the new government to keep this as a strategic focus,” said Alawadhi. “The economic and social benefits of aviation will be maximised with a sharp policy focus on keeping costs low, providing sufficient capacity to grow, monitoring the cost-effectiveness of regulations, and achieving net zero carbon emissions by 2050.”

Photo (Wikipedia): South African Airways Airbus A319

Tony Harrington

Correspondent

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The collective aspirational global goal agreed by governments six months ago to reduce CO2 emissions in international aviation by 2030 through the use of sustainable aviation fuels and lower carbon fuels is impossible to achieve or at best highly ambitious, said Willie Walsh, Director General of IATA at the association’s AGM in Dubai, hosted by Emirates. He also rejected a claim by a UAE government representative that IATA, along with other industry stakeholders, had pushed for the target at ICAO’s third Conference on Aviation and Alternative Fuels (CAAF/3) held last November, also in Dubai. Achieving the target required governments to deliver concrete measures to facilitate the exponential ramp-up of SAF they were calling for, said Walsh. He said that in the past, the industry had been rightly criticised for setting environmental targets that it could not and did not achieve. Meanwhile, IATA expects the sector’s net profits to reach $30.5 billion in 2024, up from $27.4 billion last year.

Under a ‘Global Framework’ agreed by ICAO member states at CAAF/3, to support the achievement of the long-term aspirational goal (LTAG) for international aviation of net zero carbon emissions by 2050, “…ICAO and its member states strive to achieve a collective global aspirational Vision to reduce CO2 emissions in international aviation by 5 per cent by 2030 through the use of SAF, LCAF [lower carbon aviation fuels] and other aviation cleaner energies (compared to zero cleaner energy use).”

In a Net Zero panel session on SAF production held during the AGM and World Air Transport Summit 2024, the UAE’s State Lead Negotiator for Aviation Climate Change and also Vice Chair of ICAO’s CAEP environment committee, Maryam Al Balooshi, said industry stakeholders, including IATA, had pushed for the target. However, Walsh said this was incorrect.

“The reason we didn’t push for 5% is that we don’t believe that globally it can be achieved. The aspirational target was set by governments, it was not set by IATA,” he said. “Based on everything we see, we don’t believe it’s possible, unless governments start moving fast to support the production of SAF.

“It’s not what the industry is targeting. It’s incredibly ambitious but having put the target in place, governments have a responsibility to assist in achieving the target they set.”

At a subsequent press conference, he added: “It’s good that they have this ambitious target but they set it, so they have to be part of the solution.

“Obviously, we will do everything we can to deliver as much as possible but one of the criticisms that have been levelled at our industry in the past is that we set environmental targets that we couldn’t and didn’t achieve. I think that criticism is fair.

“When we agreed to set the net zero target, we sat down to satisfy ourselves that we had a credible pathway to achieving it. We are clear that we’re not going to set artificial targets because we recognise that if we failed to meet them, we would be open to criticism. That’s why it was important for me to stress that IATA did not push for a 5% by 2030 target.”

Walsh also criticised the big energy companies for not investing enough of their large profits into renewable fuels for aviation. “We don’t have a level playing field and we need to see them invest significant sums of money in the development of SAF. Only about 6% of renewable fuels are going to aviation so we know there is a lot out there and we want to see more of that going to aviation. Why it doesn’t is because there are incentives for the production of other renewable fuels that aren’t available for aviation. My view is that the incentive/carrot approach is the best way of assisting our industry get to net zero.”

In his opening address to the AGM, Walsh laid out a set of “global solutions” he said were needed on the journey to net zero emissions:

1. Measures must be science-based and policies not based on assumptions, for example Europe’s intention to force airlines to report their non-CO2 impacts.
2. More taxes are not the solution and a patchwork of market-based measures must be avoided.
3. Unilateral measures must not be extra-territorial.
4. With airlines soon having to account for their CORSIA credits, measures should anticipate what is needed to achieve them. Only a small fraction of the 65-162 million credits needed are available.
5. SAF mandates face a similar issue where airlines must purchase SAF in amounts that do not exist and fuel suppliers accept penalties for their failure to supply the SAF requirement and pass those costs onto airlines. “This must be stopped.”
6. Measures and policies must have provisions for review and abandonment if they are not producing the intended results.
7. When a measure produces the right outcome, others should copy it, for example the incentive mechanisms for SAF in the US.
8. Measures should direct capital towards solutions like SAF.
9. Measures should envision a sunset in which the aim is to set in motion functioning markets for decarbonisation solutions that once achieved should survive as normal businesses.

Walsh concluded that while it was a long list, considerable progress had been made, for example on CORSIA, the only global market-based measure to address climate change. “The challenge is to make it work,” he said.

“We have SAF, a proven clean alternative to jet fuel. The challenge is to ramp up efficiently with diverse feedstocks and production methods. We have a common commitment with governments to decarbonise by 2050. The challenge is for governments to deliver enabling policies. And lastly, we have many possible pathways to net zero. The challenge is to promote them all and move forward.”

Other panel sessions held during event included ‘What’s the future for carbon removals’ and ‘How to sustainably grow the benefits of aviation, travel and tourism together’.

Next year’s AGM will be held in Delhi, hosted by IndiGo.

Photo: IATA

Christopher Surgenor

Editor

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IATA has revealed it is developing a SAF registry that will enable airlines worldwide to buy sustainable aviation fuel regardless of where it is produced and have certainty they can claim the environmental benefits of the SAF they have purchased for regulatory compliance purposes. Due to be rolled out in the first quarter of 2025, the development of the registry is being supported in a pilot phase by 17 major airlines and airline group IAG, as well as the national authorities of six countries, aerospace manufacturers Airbus, Boeing and GE Aerospace, and fuel producer World Energy. IATA said the registry would help promote a global SAF market and accelerate uptake, which is required to meet a 1,000-fold increase in SAF production by 2050. It estimates SAF output of 0.5 million tonnes (Mt) in 2023, or a 0.2% share of global jet fuel consumption, which it forecasts will triple to 1.5 Mt (a 0.53% share) this year.

SAF is expected to account for up to 65% of the total carbon mitigation needed to achieve the sector’s net zero emissions by 2050 goal and the registry would help meet the needs of all stakeholders as part of the global ramp-up of SAF production, commented IATA’s Director General, Willie Walsh.

“Governments need a trusted system to track the quality and quantities of SAF used. SAF producers need to accurately account for what has been delivered and effectively decarbonised. Corporate customers must be able to transparently account for their Scope 3 emissions. And airlines must have certainty that they can claim the environmental benefits of the SAF they purchased,” he said.

Key and unique among the stakeholders involved with the project, points out the airline trade body, is the participation of the government civil aviation authorities of Brazil, Japan, Kazakhstan, Malaysia, Singapore and Switzerland. “Relevant authorities can swiftly validate and approve claims, update national emission inventories and align their actions with international standards, such as those set by ICAO,” it explained.

IATA assures its SAF Registry will be neutral with respect to regulations, types of SAF and any other specificities under relevant jurisdictions and frameworks, and, as the initiator, it is working with certification organisations and fuel producers to standardise data for efficient processing.

The registry will help airlines meet regulations such as ICAO’s CORSIA scheme and the EU ETS, as well as ensuring compliance with SAF mandates and providing transparency to authorities regarding emissions reductions. IATA said it would also ensure the sector’s agreed SAF accounting and reporting principles were adhered to, fully in alignment with international protocols and industry best practices, and provide safeguards against double counting and double claiming.

Marie Owens Thomsen, IATA’s SVP Sustainability and Chief Economist, said the registry would be run under independent governance to ensure its impartiality and robustness, and participation would be on a non-profit, cost-recovery basis. “We all understand that SAF is going to be more expensive than jet fuel so it is imperative we stop adding layers to existing costs,” she said. “We also want all airlines to be able to participate in this global market, without geographical restriction, and equally important, we want all SAF producers to be able to sell to all airlines.”

IATA has identified 140 publicly-announced SAF projects now in progress in 31 countries and involving over 100 producers, with a cumulative renewable fuel capacity of 51 Mt. Around 70% of the projects are in Europe and the Americas, reflecting conducive government policies to promote SAF. Although HEFA will continue to dominate SAF production, Europe is now driving diversification, acknowledges IATA, with more individual projects across broader technologies.

But, said Hemant Mistry, IATA’s Director of Energy Transition: “We are far from where we need to be and not enough progress is being made on feedstocks.”

He said there were ‘low hanging fruit’ solutions though to accelerate access to critical SAF quantities, at least in the near- to mid-term. SAF production in existing refineries could be swiftly expanded through co-processing, which is ASTM approved but currently has a blend limit of 5%, although there are moves to increase the limit to 30%. However, he added, co-processing should be seen as a transition facilitator and not as a goal in itself.

Another quick win would be to focus policy incentives on switching renewable diesel production to SAF as road transport demand reduces and shifts to alternative energies such as electrification.

“Policy is the make or break to ensure we will have adequate supplies of SAF,” Mistry told a briefing to journalists at the IATA AGM in Dubai.

IATA is forecasting global jet fuel consumption of 285 Mt in 2024, just below the 2019 pre-pandemic level of 288 Mt, generating CO2 emissions of around 900 Mt by the sector.

Following its announcement last year of a methodology to track industry progress towards its net zero emissions by 2050 target, IATA confirmed it is anticipating the launch of its TrackZero reporting platform in Q4 2024. IATA will aggregate and report annually inputs from its member airlines on an industry basis. Non-IATA member airlines are also encouraged to contribute data and participate in the reporting. Individual airlines may use the aggregate data of the TrackZero report to benchmark their progress towards decarbonisation.

Acting on non-CO2

With the spotlight increasingly focused on aviation’s non-CO2 climate impacts, in particular from contrails, IATA recently issued a report on the issue. While accepting the scientific consensus that contrails have an aggregated, averaged warming effect on the climate, it points out there is a low level of confidence on quantifying how warming they are.

“However, this is not an excuse not to act,” Alejandro Block, Manager, New Energy and Technologies, told the briefing. “We want to help this quantification and we have spent a year speaking to meteorologists, climate scientists, researchers and aircraft manufacturers. Everyone told us that more data was required, particularly around humidity.”

He said most scientific literature agreed that contrail predicting models were most sensitive to humidity, but the lack of data lowers the confidence on the accuracy of these models. IATA is now focusing on how to get more humidity data, he said, although only a very few aircraft were currently fitted with humidity sensors. This was not stopping airlines from acting, he pointed out, and a number were already involved in trials to understand contrail avoidance and running validation exercises to check the accuracy of contrail predictions.

“We believe that post 2030, we will be able to more reliably predict individual contrails and their warming impact,” said Block. “In the future, contrail management could also be further understood and integrated to include fuels like SAF and new energies.”

Data collection is also at the centre of a new EU regulation under the EU ETS that will require all airlines to participate in the monitoring, reporting and verification (MRV) of non-CO2 emissions from January 2025. While not opposing the MRV, IATA says the industry has concerns over the move and has made recommendations.

“Firstly, the MRV is not like the MRV for CO2 where you report fuel burn and this allows you to estimate CO2 emissions with high confidence,” said Block. “For non-CO2, airlines will be asked to report a lot of data, which will be put into a black box coupled with weather models and a non-CO2 effect will be estimated. This estimate will be wrong. How can we then use that to reduce emissions?

“Secondly, all scientific papers support more humidity data and also note the sensitivity of particulate matter emissions from engines. But no papers suggest that airlines reporting all the data required will actually result in more accurate non-CO2 baselines or mitigation.

“We are concerned that the focus could be driven away from CO2, where we have high confidence, and onto non-CO2, where we have low confidence. This is dangerous and could have severe climate consequences.”

Above: IATA’s Marie Owens Thomsen, Hemant Mistry and Alejandro Block

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Global airline body IATA has called for “urgent action” on better understanding of the climate effects of non-CO2 emissions from aircraft at high altitudes, in particular cirrus cloud formation from persistent contrails. Scientists have long warned that contrails have a significant net warming impact on the climate but a new report by IATA says significant knowledge gaps remain in the complexity of contrail science and calls for more data and research. However, it is pushing against a move by the EU to introduce from January 2025 mandatory monitoring, reporting and verification (MRV) of non-CO2 emissions from all flights departing, arriving as well as within the European Economic Area (EEA). An alliance of European low-cost airlines – Ryanair, easyjet and Wizz Air – together with NGOs led by Transport & Environment have now written to urge the European Commission to resist IATA’s lobbying to restrict the scope to intra-EEA flights.

All sides accept that aviation’s climate impact extends beyond CO2 emissions, with non-CO2 effects such as contrails and nitrogen oxides also contributing to global warming. However, with uncertainties over the scale of the problem and how to tackle it, action by industry and policymakers has so far been lacking, although that is beginning to change. A number of airlines are taking part in contrail avoidance trials, while others have installed monitoring equipment on their aircraft. The EU, on the other hand, now wants access to extensive non-CO2 emissions data from flights before implementing a policy decision that could eventually result in airlines paying for their non-CO2 as well as CO2 emissions under the EU Emissions Trading System (EU ETS). The UK government has indicated it intends to carry out a policy consultation on the non-CO2 issue sometime this year.

Following its newly-released report ‘Aviation Contrails Climate Effect: Tackling Uncertainties & Enabling Solutions’, IATA is calling for “a strengthening of collaboration between research and technological innovation, coupled with policy frameworks to address aviation’s non-CO2 emissions through more atmospheric data.” The lack of high-resolution, real-time data on atmospheric conditions – particularly humidity and temperature at cruising altitudes – hinders precise contrail forecasting, argues the report.

“The industry and its stakeholders are working to address the impact of non-CO2 emissions on climate change, particularly contrails,” said IATA’s Director General, Willie Walsh. “To ensure that this effort is effective and without adverse effects, we must better understand how and where contrails form, and shrink the uncertainties related to their climate impact.”

This requires more trials, collection of more data and improvement of climate models, alongside developing mature technologies and operations, he said.

“Formulating and implementing regulations based on insufficient data and limited scientific understanding is foolish and could lead to adverse impacts on the climate,” he warned. “That is why the most important conclusion from this report is to urge all stakeholders to work together to resolve current gaps in the science so that we can take effective actions.”

The study, conducted with a number of industry organisations and research institutions, recommends a course of action over the period to 2050. In the immediate term, until 2030, the priority should be on mitigating CO2 emissions, while increasing airline participating in sensor programmes, continuing scientific research and improving humidity and climate models for the purposes of contrail mitigation, it says. In the mid-term (2030-2040), action should be taken for data transmission, continuous validation of models and encouraging aircraft manufacturers to include provisions for meteorological observations, as well as selected avoidance.

Over the longer term (2040-2050), the report expects aircraft to be continuously supplying data, with models and infrastructure in place to provide reliable results. By then, there should also be a more complete understanding of the non-CO2 effects from alternative fuels, it forecasts.

“These action items collectively aim to mitigate the climate impact of aviation while advancing scientific understanding and technological capabilities,” it says.

However, IATA is dismissive of the EU’s plans to collect non-CO2 data from flights as of next January and for the European Commission to come up with a legislative proposal by the beginning of 2028 to expand the scope of the EU ETS to include non-CO2 aviation effects.

The proposal could serve as “a first-stage experiment that attempts to achieve a baseline estimation of the non-CO2 effects of aviation,” says IATA. “However, it is currently not feasible to validate the output from the experiment to ensure that it accurately represents reality.

“Studies have shown that estimating the formation of individual contrails using past weather and trajectory data could lead to incorrect results 50-80% of the time. An MRV system for non-CO2 emissions today could support further research thanks to additional data but the science is not mature enough to allow confidence in its implementation at a policy level.

“It is conceivable that by attempting to avoid the formation of contrails and reduce reported non-CO2 emissions, operators could inadvertently increase their CO2 emissions. The complex and likely trade-offs amongst different non-CO2 emissions, and between these and CO2 emissions are still poorly understood.

“Considering all the challenges and uncertainties, introducing an MRV system as early as January 2025 would not serve to mitigate aviation’s non-CO2 effects under the EU ETS.”

The decision to include non-CO2 MRV was agreed by the European Parliament and member states last year and incorporated as an amendment to the EU ETS Directive 2003/87/EC. While MRV under the EU ETS in respect of CO2 emissions is restricted to intra-EEA flights, the new non-CO2 rule also applies to all flights that depart or arrive at an EEA airport.

IATA recommends airline participation in the MRV framework should be voluntary, given its “experimental nature”, and  its application scope should be “strictly intra-EU” to mirror that for CO2.

“Any intention to expand beyond the current EU ETS application scope for aviation would imply a legal risk of extraterritorial impact and would work counter to any MRV implementation,” it argues. “Furthermore, the probability of contrail formation is highly dependent on the region: mid-latitudes have a higher probability of contrail formation than the tropics or the equator, so contrails affect different regions differently.”

However, a policy paper by European NGO Transport & Environment (T&E) responds that full geographic scope is essential to ensure the credibility of the scheme. “It allows a better understanding of the impacts of long-haul flights, which research shows to cause more warming and present more promising mitigation opportunity,” it says. “A reduction in the scope would significantly limit the amount of data and the opportunities to mitigate non-CO2 effects beyond intra-EEA flights.”

The paper notes that shipping companies are now required to monitor maritime non-CO2 emissions for voyages to, from and within the EU. “Aviation cannot seek another exemption while other sectors are required to do more.”

It adds: “As non-CO2 emissions account for two thirds of aviation’s climate impact and adversely affect human health, the aviation industry must no longer avoid its responsibility but instead take decisive action to confront its complete environmental impact. The MRV scheme is a necessary first step aimed at better understanding these effects with a view to explore mitigation pathways. Any divergence from the original full scope would only lead to a large part of aviation emissions remaining hidden from regulators and consumers alike.”

Commented T&E Aviation Policy Manager Krisztina Toth: “Non-CO2 emissions were recognised as a climate problem 25 years ago. A monitoring tool offers a much needed first step that will help bring more understanding of the full climate impact of aviation. But some legacy carriers are lobbying to weaken the proposal, using uncertainty as an excuse.”

Full scope alliances

T&E has formed an coalition on the issue with low-cost carrier easyJet, as well as industry actors and other NGOs to urge the Commission to maintain the full scope of the non-CO2 MRV.

In a letter to the director-generals responsible for climate and transport, as well as the climate minister for Belgium, which currently holds the EU presidency, the group said: “It is critical that the full geographic scope is retained, as it is the only scientifically sound basis to understand the impact of aircraft types and geographies, and allow a better understanding of the impacts of long-haul flights, which research shows to cause more warming and present larger mitigation opportunities. It is vital that activity in areas such as the North Atlantic region, with a high concentration of contrail formation, are monitored and understood.

“Given the volume of their contribution to this issue, any deviation to exclude long-haul routes from the scope would be a significant missed opportunity which would empty the MRV of most of its meaning from a climate impact mitigation perspective, and undermine the scientific basis for future action. It would also go against the original agreement between the co-legislators.”

In a separate letter to the two Commission director-generals, easyJet has teamed with rival low-cost carriers Ryanair and Wizz Air to present a similar joint position on maintaining the full scope of non-CO2 MRV. “We call on the Commission to reject IATA’s attempts to restrict monitoring of non-CO2 effects to intra-European flights,” they said in a statement.

“We do not understand the intent of this effort to undermine the MRV scheme and why significant parts of the industry do not want to further the understanding of the science of non-CO2 effects,” says the letter.

“The purpose of the scheme is to support the development of a robust scientific evidence base. There is currently simply too much uncertainty around non-CO2 effects to drive policy development or to even reach a coherent understanding of the impact of non-CO2 on warming. This is precisely why we need such a system and why it must not be limited to intra-EU flights.

“Without robust science, it will not be possible to develop a policy measure to address non-CO2 effects, so if the EU chooses to restrict the MRV it is by default choosing to remove the option of a future policy instrument.”

IATA’s concern over the extraterritorial application of the non-CO2 MRV to airlines from third countries arriving at and departing from EEA airports has justification. The EU ETS in its original scope was similar but it faced considerable international opposition from countries such as China, India, Russia and the United States. China threatened to withdraw a sizeable order of Airbus aircraft for one of its carriers. The US passed legislation, which is still in force, that provides powers to prohibit its airlines from complying with EU ETS regulations. In the face of such opposition, and with the expectation that ICAO would come up with a market-based global scheme to address carbon emissions from international flights (ICAO member states later agreed the CORSIA carbon offsetting scheme), the EU backed down and restricted the scope of the EU ETS to intra-EEA flights on a time-limited basis.

The letter from the three LCCs acknowledges “there are reasonable concerns” around the scale of MRV data required from airlines and third country airline involvement. However, they say: “We think these can be resolved through a pragmatic approach to the implementation of the MRV.

“The concern that foreign governments and their carriers might in future object to having to report non-CO2 emissions is also not a reason to restrict the measure to intra-EU flights. These carriers are already subject to reporting requirements under CORSIA and will be subject to reporting requirements under ReFuelEU Aviation. There is no technical reason why extra-EU flights should be exempted from reporting their non-CO2 emissions.

“Options to tackle non-EU country objections, should they arise, could involve limiting or delaying the enforcement for non-EU carriers, or other options involving EU funding to address any imbalance in costs. The scope restriction to intra-EU flights is not a necessary outcome.”

Article updated May 10 to include a link to the full letter from the three LCCs.

Photo: DLR

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An IATA report to compare leading decarbonisation roadmaps for the aviation sector has found significant differences regarding how technologies and solutions may evolve in the transition to net zero. Although all roadmaps assume sustainable aviation fuels will be responsible for the greatest amount of CO2 reductions by 2050, their role varies from 24% to 70%. This, says the report, reflects the uncertainties regarding potential supportive government action, the level of investments, cost of production and profit potential, as well as access to feedstocks. This first analysis undertaken to provide a holistic review of 14 major global and regional net zero CO2 emissions by 2050 roadmaps was undertaken by IATA in collaboration with the Air Transport Action Group, the International Council on Clean Transportation, the Mission Possible Partnership and the Air Transportation Systems Laboratory at University College London.

The report, ‘The Aviation Net Zero CO2 Transition Pathways Comparative Review’, compares the selected roadmaps in terms of their scope, key input assumptions, modelled aviation energy demand, respective CO2 emissions and the emissions reduction potential of each mitigation lever or pathway, namely new aircraft technologies, zero-carbon fuels, SAF and operational improvements.

The possible pathways to net zero CO2 emissions by 2050 differ significantly depending on the key assumptions of the roadmap authors regarding how technologies and future fuels may evolve, so the resulting role of particular levers will be more or less important, finds the study led by IATA’s Dr Bojun Wang. In addition, the roadmaps analysed adopted different demand modelling approaches. Some used a top-down approach with pre-determined aviation demand growth rates, and the transition measures were applied on top of this growth as ‘gap fillers’ to reduce the emissions to net zero by 2050, while others used a bottom-up approach where demand growth is modelled to reflect the impacts of different transition measures on demand. This makes it difficult for stakeholders and policymakers to compare the transition pathways and levers of action to achieve net zero, points out the report.

Given that currently there are only a few new aircraft projects under development and the fleet replacement rate is generally low, most of the roadmaps assume, on average, about 1.0% per year improvement in energy efficiency from now until 2050, measured in megajoules per revenue passenger kilometres, although some have more aggressive assumptions, with one forecasting a 2.2% per year fuel efficiency improvement from new types of aircraft introduced from 2035.

All roadmaps assume that energy intensity reduction from operational efficiency gains will be lower than that of technology efficiency improvement, on average 0.1% to 0.2% per year, although one has a greater 0.5% assumption based on higher load factors and traffic efficiency improvements.

If putting the technology and operational levers together for all roadmaps, the total efficiency improvement is about 1.0% to 1.5% per year in most roadmaps.

Sustainable aviation fuel produced from biomass resources (bio-SAF) and those synthetic fuels produced from CO2 and electricity (power-to-liquid or PtL) are assumed to deliver the highest emissions savings in the energy transition of the aviation sector to reach net zero by 2050. SAF volumes only reached 0.5 Mt in 2023 and all roadmaps indicate that to reach the 2050 target, the share of SAF in total aviation energy demand must be at least 5-6% by 2030. ICAO recently set an aspirational goal of achieving a 5% reduction in carbon intensity from international aviation by 2030, and the ICAO LTAG S3 models the highest share of SAF at 21% by 2030 for international aviation.

The report notes that for the higher 2030 SAF use estimates, the speed with which infrastructure can be ramped up is also a key constraint for SAF production, given that the number of SAF facilities planned to be built by then may not meet the high SAF demand.

By 2050, SAF is expected to account for 65% to 100% of the total energy demand for aviation, depending on whether any other clean energy sources, such as green hydrogen-powered aircraft, are considered in the given roadmap.

How fast SAF can penetrate the global aviation energy supply depends on feedstock availability and production costs relative to fossil jet fuel, says the report, and with SAF currently about two to six times more expensive, future prices of SAF remain “highly uncertain”. PtL fuels are assumed to be available only from the mid-2020s or 2030 in the majority of roadmaps. Demand for SAF is projected to accelerate significantly from 2030 to 2050 across all the roadmaps. However, the shares of bio-SAF and PtL in the total SAF consumption vary widely by the corresponding model assumptions.

Hydrogen-powered aircraft, with a limited range, are largely assumed to enter the market in the mid-2030s, while battery-electric aircraft coming in around the same time but serve even shorter-range markets. The estimated emissions savings from these aircraft vary greatly across the roadmaps, depending on whether a strong pro-hydrogen policy is adopted and on whether there is a rapid decline in renewable energy prices that enable swifter uptake of these technologies.

With the exception of one US roadmap, all the global roadmaps suggest the aviation sector will need help from market-based measures (MBMs), such as ICAO’s CORSIA scheme and the EU ETS, and carbon removals to address residual emissions in 2050. “Even if carbon removal technologies are considered an ‘out-of-sector’ mitigation measure, it is still both urgent and critical to develop these technologies as CO2 will be needed as feedstock for producing PtL fuels,” says the report.

IATA’s own roadmap mid-scenario models gross CO2 emissions of 1115 Mt in 2050, which after the implementation of the technology, operational and SAF levers, leaves residual emissions of 465 Mt CO2 to be mitigated by MBMs and carbon removals. This is the largest of all the roadmaps, with the exception of ICAO’s LTAG S2 scenario of 495 Mt from international aviation. The lowest on a global basis, 70 Mt, is forecast in ICCT’s Breakthrough scenario.

Concluding, the authors say: “By comparing these roadmaps, this report is instrumental in helping airlines better understand the potential of reducing CO2 emissions by different mitigation measures. Given that most of the transition measures for the aviation sector are not yet readily available, we believe there will not be a universal path to help the aviation sector reach net zero by 2050.”

Nevertheless, added Marie Owens Thomsen, IATA’s SVP Sustainability and Chief Economist: “This report provides airlines, policymakers and all stakeholders with a useful tool to analyse and improve their policy, investment and business choices.

“It is particularly important for SAF, where strong and urgent public policy support is needed to increase production. Without that, no version of roadmaps will get us to net zero carbon emissions by 2050.”

Image: IATA

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Countries meeting in Dubai for the third Conference on Aviation and Alternative Fuels (CAAF/3) have agreed a global framework to support the clean energy transition of the aviation sector that will be required to achieve its current objective of net zero carbon emissions by 2050. In the new ICAO Global Framework for Sustainable Aviation Fuels (SAF), Lower Carbon Aviation Fuels (LCAF) and other Aviation Cleaner Energies, such as hydrogen and electricity, Member States have agreed a ‘Vision’ to achieve an aspirational global interim goal of a 5% reduction in the carbon intensity of aviation fuel by 2030. The collective goal recognises that some States will be able to move quickly whereas others will take longer and require capacity-building assistance, finance and time to develop the necessary infrastructure. The agreement has been welcomed by industry, which expects the move to lead to supportive government policies and send a strong signal to investors and the traditional energy sector.

Key elements of the Framework agreement reached at CAAF/3 include a collective Vision for the clean energy transition, harmonised regulatory foundations, supporting implementation initiatives and improved access to financing so that, in ICAO parlance, “No country is left behind”.

Commenting on the outcome, ICAO Council President Salvatore Sciacchitano said: “The role of the Framework is to facilitate the scale-up of the development and deployment of SAF, LCAF and other aviation cleaner energies on a global basis, and mainly by providing greater clarity, consistency and predictability to all stakeholders, including those beyond the aviation sector.

“Investors, governments and others all need greater certainty regarding the policies, regulations, implementation support and investments required so that all countries will have an equal opportunity to contribute to, and benefit from, the expansion in the production and use of these fuels and the expected emissions reductions they will lead to.”

Haldane Dodd, Executive Director of the cross-industry Air Transport Action Group said it was another milestone event for the sector, following the adoption at last year’s ICAO Assembly of the Long Term Aspirational Goal of net zero carbon emissions by 2050. He said the agreement would “add another layer of certainty” in the shift towards the replacement of fossil fuels by SAF and unlock the significant capital investment needed, which ICAO estimates at $3.2 trillion.

“Aviation has provided a near-term objective and the global framework,” said Dodd. “Now it is up to the finance community and energy sector to support the necessary infrastructure and start delivering SAF in ever increasing quantities.”

IATA Director General Willie Walsh said the setting of a goal with a shorter 2030 time horizon was ambitious. “To that end, the CAAF/3 agreement signals to the world in no uncertain terms the need for policies that enable real progress. There is no time to lose. IATA now expects governments to urgently put the strongest possible policies in place to unlock the full potential of a global SAF market with an exponential increase in production.”

IATA pointed out that all SAF produced in 2022 had been bought by airlines at an additional cost of $500 million because of the price premium over conventional jet fuel, and yet the availability of SAF was expected to be limited to 0.2% of jet fuel consumption in 2023. Airline forward purchase agreements for SAF are worth around $45 billion in total, well in excess of SAF availability, it said.

“Airlines are ready with open arms to catch the resulting SAF production,” said Marie Owens Thomsen, SVP Sustainability and Chief Economist. “While airlines are at the sharp end of decarbonisation, they cannot bear the burden alone. CAAF/3 has again made it clear that aviation’s decarbonisation will require the wholehearted and united efforts of the entire value chain as we all focus on net zero by 2050. To be perfectly clear, where government money leads, private money will follow. It is absolutely essential that governments play their part, and we will certainly play ours.”

The adopted Global Framework is built across four interconnected building blocks: policy and planning, regulatory frameworks, implementation support and financing. The ‘Vision’ of a collective 5% emissions reduction goal in international aviation (an earlier draft had the goal ranging from 5 to 8 per cent) is to be continually monitored and periodically reviewed through an annual ICAO stocktake and the convening of a CAAF/4 that should take place no later than 2028. ICAO, with the contribution of its technical body CAEP, is required to identify and develop methodologies for monitoring progress.

To ensure environmental integrity, the CORSIA sustainability criteria, sustainability certification and the methodology for the assessment of lifecycle emissions used for CORSIA eligible fuels should be used as the accepted basis for the eligibility of sustainable fuels used in international aviation. With CAEP, the framework requires ICAO to undertake a study of fuel accounting systems for international aviation currently used in the open market, which is to include preliminary exploration of the book-and-claim concept.

The framework requires ICAO to urgently put in place the necessary structure and capability of the proposed ICAO Finvest Hub, through which a platform will be developed to connect aviation decarbonisation projects with potential public and private investors, and collaborate with financial institutions, such as development banks, to create pathways for the funding of projects.

A statement by the UK government, which had convened on the first day of CAAF/3 a meeting of the 62-country International Aviation Climate Ambition Coalition, an initiative it set up at COP26 in 2021, said the compromise agreement would enable countries across the world to develop their own SAF industries, “turning cleaner flying into a reality worldwide”.

Added Aviation Minister Anthony Browne: “While the UK sought to secure greater ambition, this is a significant moment in our path to sustainable flying. The UK remains steadfast in its commitment to decarbonise international aviation. This deal shows that when the world comes together and cooperates, we can bring about real change.”

Photo: ICAO

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IATA has announced a package of partnerships to help drive further cuts in aviation’s emissions in the air and on the ground. Together with the Aviation Impact Accelerator (AIA), an international collaboration of industry and academia, IATA will develop scenario-based tools that enable airlines to evaluate the costs of various carbon reduction pathways before choosing the measures most appropriate to their own circumstances. A second partnership, with the global engineering and project management company Atkins, will assist airports to measure the volume of carbon embedded in assets such as terminal buildings, runways and car parks, and provide tools to help cut the carbon footprint of future infrastructure projects. Additionally, the airlines body has announced it will publish an annual Track Zero report to transparently catalogue the industry’s progress towards its 2050 emission reduction targets.

The Aviation Impact Accelerator is a collective of international experts leveraging expertise sourced by the UK’s University of Cambridge to explore the cost to the aviation sector of achieving its commitment to net zero carbon emissions by 2050. In partnership with IATA, the group is developing evidence-based tools that enable carriers to understand, map and select specific measures to guide their emissions reduction strategies.

“We are excited to launch this new collaboration between AIA and IATA, investigating realistic pathways for aviation’s transition to net zero emissions by 2050,” said AIA’s Lead, Professor Rob Miller, who is also Director of the Whittle Laboratory at University of Cambridge. Marie Owens Thomsen, IATA’s SVP Sustainability and Chief Economist, explained the partnership would enhance the airline industry’s understanding of the options available to cut flight emissions. “The development of different technological pathways will have an influence on the long-term outlook of our industry,” she said, “and our collaboration will notably explore this intersection.”

The AIA partnership will also consider cooperation to develop IATA’s Recommended Practice Per Passenger CO2 calculation methodology, which, when used together with verified operational data from airlines, provides detailed information about the carbon footprint of flying.

On the ground, the new collaboration of IATA and Atkins has produced a package of digital tools that will help airports estimate the embodied carbon linked to the construction of infrastructure, including terminals and runways. This initiative will provide carbon benchmarking for the three main asset categories at airports – terminal buildings, runways and multi-storey car parks – to enable airport growth teams to understand the carbon created by their development programmes and ways of mitigating future risk, beginning as early as the project design phase.

“Reaching net zero by 2050 will require collective efforts from the entire industry supply chain and from policymakers,” said Nick Careen, IATA’s SVP Operations, Safety and Security. “Our collaboration with Atkins on this innovative digital toolkit will help airports meet their own objectives by providing a crucial platform to evaluate and reduce carbon impacts for new airport developments. By facilitating dialogue around carbon mitigation from day one of an airport development project, together we are making headway towards net zero aviation.”

Andy Yates, Atkins’ Technical Director, Aviation Infrastructure, believes the partnership with IATA will lead the aviation sector into “a challenging and previously unexplored area of embodied carbon assessment,” he said. “The tools have been developed by a multi-disciplinary team including architecture, airport planning and structural design, as well as carbon experts, ensuring a solution that understands the complexity and multi-faceted approach needed to assess embodied carbon.”

Announced during its AGM in Istanbul last month, a third IATA partnership will see ATPCO, a provider of content to showcase airlines’ fares, in-flight amenities and merchandising, expand its offering to help prospective travellers understand the carbon cost of various itinerary options at the time they are researching air fares. ATPCO’s Routehappy programme will use IATA’s CO2 Connect databank, which provides airline-specific fuel burn information from 74 aircraft types and 881 aircraft operators, which collectively provide 93% of global air travel.

“We know travellers want to understand their flight’s environmental impact in a consistent, transparent and trustworthy way,” said IATA Director General Willie Walsh. “IATA CO2 Connect is the most accurate tool providing this information.”

Alex Zoghlin, ATPCO’s President and CEO, said the introduction of airline-specific emissions information added a new dimension to the merchandising data and content provided by his company, enabling passengers, corporate travel management companies and travel agents to access CO2 emissions information at the point of booking in order to compare flights and “make a more sustainable choice”.  

The new partnerships coincide with IATA’s decision to publish an annual Track Zero report from next year, to document the progress of the airline industry towards its 2050 emission reduction targets. “Transparency is a critical element of aviation’s decarbonisation,” explained IATA’s Owens Thomsen. “Industry-level data in the Track Zero report will help airlines, governments and investors with tools to improve decision making to accelerate progress.”

“Our commitment to net zero by 2050 is fixed and firm,” IATA’s Director General, Willie Walsh, told delegates at the opening of this year’s annual gathering of airline executives, held recently in Istanbul. However, on the same day, one of the industry’s leading figures, Akbar Al Baker, CEO of Qatar Airways, was telling CNN that net zero couldn’t be achieved within the 2050 timeframe and setting the goal was a “PR exercise”. The results of a survey of aviation industry decision-makers in six countries conducted by Ipsos on behalf of aircraft engine manufacturer GE Aerospace ahead of the Paris Air Show shows a similar difference of opinion as to whether the industry will meet its net-zero goal by mid-century. While a plurality (46%)  believe it can be met, 32% said it will not and 22% were unsure. On average, respondents believe it will be met by 2055.

In his interview with CNN, Al Baker, a current member and former chairman of the IATA Board of Governors, said industry targets were unrealistic, given the current volumes of sustainable aviation fuels being produced. Due to a lack of raw materials, even the 2030 volume target would not be reached, he added. He told CNN’s Richard Quest that net zero is achievable, “but to do it in the 2050 timeframe, the industry is far behind.”

In his opening address, Walsh said: “The sustainability challenge is, bar none, the biggest that we will face as leaders of the aviation industry. This will be difficult and take time.” Responding to Al Baker’s comments, he told CNN: “I think it would be wrong for us to try and convince people that this is going to be easy, and it’s going to be cheap – it’s not. But the idea that we can’t do it – no, I don’t accept that.”

The survey, conducted in May, of 325 aviation executives in China, India, UAE, France, UK and USA, showed 76% of respondents believed sustainability has fundamentally changed the way the industry operates, with a plurality (30%) identifying that meeting the industry’s sustainability goal is the top current challenge. A strong majority (88%) reported their organisations already had sustainability strategies in place, with most saying these strategies had already had a major or moderate impact on how their company operates (74%), invests (73%) and hires (62%).

The major hurdles cited by respondents in meeting the net zero challenge were rising costs, budgetary pressure, supply issues and energy resources. They identified advancements in fuels (SAF and hydrogen) and engines would play the biggest role in reaching net zero but were split as to whether progress is happening at the right pace, with 51% saying it is too slow. Government is seen as having a key role in applying the most pressure to accelerate decarbonisation, followed by investors.

The responses showed an overall even split on whether consumers were prepared to pay more for a sustainable flight. However, 74% of respondents from China believed they were willing but 65% of Indian respondents said industry could not rely on a willingness by consumers to pay more.

Commenting on the results of the survey, Allen Paxson, VP & GM Commercial Programs Strategy at GE Aerospace, said: “They show the aviation industry is focused on the goal of achieving net zero emissions by 2050, while also recognising the need to accelerate efforts and ensure all key stakeholders are on the playing field. With GE Aerospace and our partner engines powering three-quarters of the world’s flights, we recognise the important responsibility we have to meet the industry ramp and to do so more sustainably and more efficiently for our customers.”

Photo (Adam Senatori): GE’s GEnx engines power Qatar Airways’ Boeing 787-9 aircraft

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