An IATA report to compare leading decarbonisation roadmaps for the aviation sector has found significant differences regarding how technologies and solutions may evolve in the transition to net zero. Although all roadmaps assume sustainable aviation fuels will be responsible for the greatest amount of CO2 reductions by 2050, their role varies from 24% to 70%. This, says the report, reflects the uncertainties regarding potential supportive government action, the level of investments, cost of production and profit potential, as well as access to feedstocks. This first analysis undertaken to provide a holistic review of 14 major global and regional net zero CO2 emissions by 2050 roadmaps was undertaken by IATA in collaboration with the Air Transport Action Group, the International Council on Clean Transportation, the Mission Possible Partnership and the Air Transportation Systems Laboratory at University College London.

The report, ‘The Aviation Net Zero CO2 Transition Pathways Comparative Review’, compares the selected roadmaps in terms of their scope, key input assumptions, modelled aviation energy demand, respective CO2 emissions and the emissions reduction potential of each mitigation lever or pathway, namely new aircraft technologies, zero-carbon fuels, SAF and operational improvements.

The possible pathways to net zero CO2 emissions by 2050 differ significantly depending on the key assumptions of the roadmap authors regarding how technologies and future fuels may evolve, so the resulting role of particular levers will be more or less important, finds the study led by IATA’s Dr Bojun Wang. In addition, the roadmaps analysed adopted different demand modelling approaches. Some used a top-down approach with pre-determined aviation demand growth rates, and the transition measures were applied on top of this growth as ‘gap fillers’ to reduce the emissions to net zero by 2050, while others used a bottom-up approach where demand growth is modelled to reflect the impacts of different transition measures on demand. This makes it difficult for stakeholders and policymakers to compare the transition pathways and levers of action to achieve net zero, points out the report.

Given that currently there are only a few new aircraft projects under development and the fleet replacement rate is generally low, most of the roadmaps assume, on average, about 1.0% per year improvement in energy efficiency from now until 2050, measured in megajoules per revenue passenger kilometres, although some have more aggressive assumptions, with one forecasting a 2.2% per year fuel efficiency improvement from new types of aircraft introduced from 2035.

All roadmaps assume that energy intensity reduction from operational efficiency gains will be lower than that of technology efficiency improvement, on average 0.1% to 0.2% per year, although one has a greater 0.5% assumption based on higher load factors and traffic efficiency improvements.

If putting the technology and operational levers together for all roadmaps, the total efficiency improvement is about 1.0% to 1.5% per year in most roadmaps.

Sustainable aviation fuel produced from biomass resources (bio-SAF) and those synthetic fuels produced from CO2 and electricity (power-to-liquid or PtL) are assumed to deliver the highest emissions savings in the energy transition of the aviation sector to reach net zero by 2050. SAF volumes only reached 0.5 Mt in 2023 and all roadmaps indicate that to reach the 2050 target, the share of SAF in total aviation energy demand must be at least 5-6% by 2030. ICAO recently set an aspirational goal of achieving a 5% reduction in carbon intensity from international aviation by 2030, and the ICAO LTAG S3 models the highest share of SAF at 21% by 2030 for international aviation.

The report notes that for the higher 2030 SAF use estimates, the speed with which infrastructure can be ramped up is also a key constraint for SAF production, given that the number of SAF facilities planned to be built by then may not meet the high SAF demand.

By 2050, SAF is expected to account for 65% to 100% of the total energy demand for aviation, depending on whether any other clean energy sources, such as green hydrogen-powered aircraft, are considered in the given roadmap.

How fast SAF can penetrate the global aviation energy supply depends on feedstock availability and production costs relative to fossil jet fuel, says the report, and with SAF currently about two to six times more expensive, future prices of SAF remain “highly uncertain”. PtL fuels are assumed to be available only from the mid-2020s or 2030 in the majority of roadmaps. Demand for SAF is projected to accelerate significantly from 2030 to 2050 across all the roadmaps. However, the shares of bio-SAF and PtL in the total SAF consumption vary widely by the corresponding model assumptions.

Hydrogen-powered aircraft, with a limited range, are largely assumed to enter the market in the mid-2030s, while battery-electric aircraft coming in around the same time but serve even shorter-range markets. The estimated emissions savings from these aircraft vary greatly across the roadmaps, depending on whether a strong pro-hydrogen policy is adopted and on whether there is a rapid decline in renewable energy prices that enable swifter uptake of these technologies.

With the exception of one US roadmap, all the global roadmaps suggest the aviation sector will need help from market-based measures (MBMs), such as ICAO’s CORSIA scheme and the EU ETS, and carbon removals to address residual emissions in 2050. “Even if carbon removal technologies are considered an ‘out-of-sector’ mitigation measure, it is still both urgent and critical to develop these technologies as CO2 will be needed as feedstock for producing PtL fuels,” says the report.

IATA’s own roadmap mid-scenario models gross CO2 emissions of 1115 Mt in 2050, which after the implementation of the technology, operational and SAF levers, leaves residual emissions of 465 Mt CO2 to be mitigated by MBMs and carbon removals. This is the largest of all the roadmaps, with the exception of ICAO’s LTAG S2 scenario of 495 Mt from international aviation. The lowest on a global basis, 70 Mt, is forecast in ICCT’s Breakthrough scenario.

Concluding, the authors say: “By comparing these roadmaps, this report is instrumental in helping airlines better understand the potential of reducing CO2 emissions by different mitigation measures. Given that most of the transition measures for the aviation sector are not yet readily available, we believe there will not be a universal path to help the aviation sector reach net zero by 2050.”

Nevertheless, added Marie Owens Thomsen, IATA’s SVP Sustainability and Chief Economist: “This report provides airlines, policymakers and all stakeholders with a useful tool to analyse and improve their policy, investment and business choices.

“It is particularly important for SAF, where strong and urgent public policy support is needed to increase production. Without that, no version of roadmaps will get us to net zero carbon emissions by 2050.”

Image: IATA

Christopher Surgenor

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Countries meeting in Dubai for the third Conference on Aviation and Alternative Fuels (CAAF/3) have agreed a global framework to support the clean energy transition of the aviation sector that will be required to achieve its current objective of net zero carbon emissions by 2050. In the new ICAO Global Framework for Sustainable Aviation Fuels (SAF), Lower Carbon Aviation Fuels (LCAF) and other Aviation Cleaner Energies, such as hydrogen and electricity, Member States have agreed a ‘Vision’ to achieve an aspirational global interim goal of a 5% reduction in the carbon intensity of aviation fuel by 2030. The collective goal recognises that some States will be able to move quickly whereas others will take longer and require capacity-building assistance, finance and time to develop the necessary infrastructure. The agreement has been welcomed by industry, which expects the move to lead to supportive government policies and send a strong signal to investors and the traditional energy sector.

Key elements of the Framework agreement reached at CAAF/3 include a collective Vision for the clean energy transition, harmonised regulatory foundations, supporting implementation initiatives and improved access to financing so that, in ICAO parlance, “No country is left behind”.

Commenting on the outcome, ICAO Council President Salvatore Sciacchitano said: “The role of the Framework is to facilitate the scale-up of the development and deployment of SAF, LCAF and other aviation cleaner energies on a global basis, and mainly by providing greater clarity, consistency and predictability to all stakeholders, including those beyond the aviation sector.

“Investors, governments and others all need greater certainty regarding the policies, regulations, implementation support and investments required so that all countries will have an equal opportunity to contribute to, and benefit from, the expansion in the production and use of these fuels and the expected emissions reductions they will lead to.”

Haldane Dodd, Executive Director of the cross-industry Air Transport Action Group said it was another milestone event for the sector, following the adoption at last year’s ICAO Assembly of the Long Term Aspirational Goal of net zero carbon emissions by 2050. He said the agreement would “add another layer of certainty” in the shift towards the replacement of fossil fuels by SAF and unlock the significant capital investment needed, which ICAO estimates at $3.2 trillion.

“Aviation has provided a near-term objective and the global framework,” said Dodd. “Now it is up to the finance community and energy sector to support the necessary infrastructure and start delivering SAF in ever increasing quantities.”

IATA Director General Willie Walsh said the setting of a goal with a shorter 2030 time horizon was ambitious. “To that end, the CAAF/3 agreement signals to the world in no uncertain terms the need for policies that enable real progress. There is no time to lose. IATA now expects governments to urgently put the strongest possible policies in place to unlock the full potential of a global SAF market with an exponential increase in production.”

IATA pointed out that all SAF produced in 2022 had been bought by airlines at an additional cost of $500 million because of the price premium over conventional jet fuel, and yet the availability of SAF was expected to be limited to 0.2% of jet fuel consumption in 2023. Airline forward purchase agreements for SAF are worth around $45 billion in total, well in excess of SAF availability, it said.

“Airlines are ready with open arms to catch the resulting SAF production,” said Marie Owens Thomsen, SVP Sustainability and Chief Economist. “While airlines are at the sharp end of decarbonisation, they cannot bear the burden alone. CAAF/3 has again made it clear that aviation’s decarbonisation will require the wholehearted and united efforts of the entire value chain as we all focus on net zero by 2050. To be perfectly clear, where government money leads, private money will follow. It is absolutely essential that governments play their part, and we will certainly play ours.”

The adopted Global Framework is built across four interconnected building blocks: policy and planning, regulatory frameworks, implementation support and financing. The ‘Vision’ of a collective 5% emissions reduction goal in international aviation (an earlier draft had the goal ranging from 5 to 8 per cent) is to be continually monitored and periodically reviewed through an annual ICAO stocktake and the convening of a CAAF/4 that should take place no later than 2028. ICAO, with the contribution of its technical body CAEP, is required to identify and develop methodologies for monitoring progress.

To ensure environmental integrity, the CORSIA sustainability criteria, sustainability certification and the methodology for the assessment of lifecycle emissions used for CORSIA eligible fuels should be used as the accepted basis for the eligibility of sustainable fuels used in international aviation. With CAEP, the framework requires ICAO to undertake a study of fuel accounting systems for international aviation currently used in the open market, which is to include preliminary exploration of the book-and-claim concept.

The framework requires ICAO to urgently put in place the necessary structure and capability of the proposed ICAO Finvest Hub, through which a platform will be developed to connect aviation decarbonisation projects with potential public and private investors, and collaborate with financial institutions, such as development banks, to create pathways for the funding of projects.

A statement by the UK government, which had convened on the first day of CAAF/3 a meeting of the 62-country International Aviation Climate Ambition Coalition, an initiative it set up at COP26 in 2021, said the compromise agreement would enable countries across the world to develop their own SAF industries, “turning cleaner flying into a reality worldwide”.

Added Aviation Minister Anthony Browne: “While the UK sought to secure greater ambition, this is a significant moment in our path to sustainable flying. The UK remains steadfast in its commitment to decarbonise international aviation. This deal shows that when the world comes together and cooperates, we can bring about real change.”

Photo: ICAO

Christopher Surgenor

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In what ICAO Council President Salvatore Sciacchitano described as the UN civil aviation agency’s most important event of the year, countries are convening this week in Dubai to agree a global framework on a cleaner energy future for aviation. The purpose of the Conference on Aviation Alternative Fuels (CAAF/3) is to steer policy direction and financing to aid the rapid shift towards new forms of sustainable energy, in particular sustainable aviation fuels, to meet ICAO’s Long Term Aspirational Goal (LTAG) of net zero carbon emissions from international aviation by 2050. Sciacchitano said it would be a massive task that required immediate collective action. SAF production remains largely confined to Europe and the USA but the collective global target will require huge support and investment for energy transition in the developing world. The week-long meeting has been marked with an Emirates A380 demonstration flight with one engine powered by 100% SAF.

“We must urgently scale up the development and deployment of sustainable, lower carbon and other clean energy aviation fuels in order to meet the sustainability expectations of both the world and the stakeholders,” said Sciacchitano in his opening address at CAAF/3. “We have a massive task ahead of us this week as we deliberate on the ICAO Global Framework for aviation’s cleaner energy transition, a key step for the sustainable development of air transport. ICAO’s main priority is the implementation and achievement of LTAG. To do this, we need to take collective action now and CAAF/3 can be instrumental in laying the building blocks in terms of policy and planning, regulatory framework adjustments, implementation support and financing.

“This is also an opportunity for States to demonstrate strong leadership in addressing international aviation emissions just before the UN’s COP28 climate change conference also taking place here in the UAE. A successful, robust and ambitious global framework can only serve to shine a bright spotlight on the shared efforts and commitment to decarbonising our sector. We have a great opportunity to show and communicate to the world that aviation is seriously and strongly committed to decarbonise by 2050.”

In a video address, UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres said aviation was one of the most challenging sectors to decarbonise, “but with innovation and investment, it can be done.”

He added: “A net-zero aviation sector means cleaner energy sources on a global scale. It means economic policies and regulations that can support a just and equitable transition while attracting investors, and it means measures such as carbon pricing, low-carbon fuel standards and subsidies for sustainable aviation fuels. The global framework emerging from this conference is a critical step towards a clean and prosperous future for this vital sector. By moving at jet speed you can speed up the clean energy revolution our world needs.

“With the upcoming COP28, now is the time to turn ambition into concrete action to find ways to deliver on your net zero target and shape a better, cleaner future for all.”

CAAF meetings take place only on a six-year basis, the first held in Brazil in 2009, and CAAF/3 is the culmination of a series of stocktaking and pre-CAAF/3 conferences and consultations to prepare the ground for a ‘2050 ICAO Vision’ for SAF, lower carbon aviation fuels (LCAF) and other aviation cleaner energy sources in order to define a global framework in line with ICAO’s ‘No Country Left Behind’ initiative that takes into account national circumstances and capabilities. SAF, LCAF and other aviation cleaner energies are expected to make the largest contribution towards achieving the LTAG.

The 2050 Vision acknowledges that no single fuel source will be produced at a level necessary to achieve the LTAG and so the framework needs to be flexible and not exclude any particular fuel source, pathway, feedstock or technology that meets the CORSIA eligible fuels criteria, says ICAO.

Since earlier this year, a Small Group for Preparations for CAAF/3, under the Climate and Environment Committee (CEC) of ICAO’s governing Council, has been considering possible CAAF/3 outcomes, including a draft global framework. The framework is built across four interconnected building blocks that need to advance and work together: policy and planning; regulatory frameworks; implementation support; and financing.

Although there has been general convergence on the Vision, some differences remain around aviation cleaner energies and financing, which will be discussed during the conference.

A number of States want to see CAAF/3 emerge with a quantified goal in order to send a political signal of support for sustainable fuels that could unlock private sector investment around the world.

“The reason why investors need this outcome is that it is crucial to assuring the durability of their investments,” US government representative Annie Petsonk said during an opening panel session. “If they are going to make the major investments that allow SAF to be produced in refineries and to develop the required feedstocks and supply chains, they want to see governments are serious about this transition. Through informal consultations I have had already, I am very hopeful that I will be able to communicate a positive outcome to them.”

The US is also supporting the creation of the ICAO Finvest Hub, which aims to act as a facilitating platform to connect projects contributing to the decarbonisation of international aviation, including feedstock and SAF production, with potential public and private investors. A priority of the initiative would be to support developing countries and those with special needs in financing aviation decarbonisation projects. It would also offer technical assistance, capacity building and guidance on the development of legal and policy frameworks.

Industry is also represented at CAAF/3 and has a similar wish list. “There are two key outcomes we would like to see from the conference: a goal for SAF deployment that can provide investment certainty to the finance markets and influence policy actions around the world, and a supportive global framework that will ensure countries everywhere can take advantage of the opportunities to build new energy industries and secure jobs in supplying SAF,” said Haldane Dodd, Executive Director of the cross-industry Air Transport Action Group (ATAG).

ATAG says the transition to SAF is already underway, with policy measures being implemented or discussed in around 40 countries, with $45 billion in forward SAF purchase agreements in place with airlines, operators and corporate partners. Ten facilities are currently producing SAF, it says, but by 2029 over 150 projects in 35 countries are being explored that could be used for SAF production.

“The SAF scale-up has begun,” said Dodd. “Over 10 times more SAF was delivered to airlines in 2022 than in 2019. That pace of development will continue but needs to accelerate significantly to keep in line with the industry’s path to net zero.

“Three things are needed to make the aviation energy transition happen: government policy to support supply and create certainty for demand; financing of the potentially $1.5 trillion in infrastructure capital needed to supply SAF at the scale required; and a serious effort by the traditional energy sector to shift their products from fossil to sustainable fuels. We believe the CAAF/3 meeting can set the scene for these developments and help catalyse the transition in aviation. These are tough decisions and complex challenges, but necessary ones to progress as climate change makes its impacts felt.

“A global framework from CAAF/3 will help capacity building and access to finance so that countries everywhere can build SAF industries of their own. Enormous value can be created in diversifying and democratising energy supply if governments grasp the opportunities ahead of them.”

Added Laurent Donceel, Deputy Managing Director of Airlines for Europe (A4E): “The future of aviation depends on sustainable aviation fuels and it is critical the CAAF/3 meeting produces a global agreement for a net-zero aviation with realistic targets to promote the use of SAF. Global investments in SAF and boosting the energy transition in aviation will create a bounty of jobs and growth around the world.

“Europe and the USA are accelerating down the runway towards a more sustainable future so it’s critically important that the rest of the world keeps up and delivers a truly net zero aviation industry. CAAF/3 is an ideal opportunity to set this in stone.”

Environmental NGOs belonging to the International Coalition on Sustainable Aviation have called on the meeting “to adopt a global aspirational quantified objective for 2050 and an aspirational trajectory that are consistent with the Paris Agreement temperature goals, and that prioritise the environmental and social integrity of alternative fuels.”

Setting the goal, they say, requires adopting, primarily, a metric that focuses on the carbon intensity of alternative fuels on a lifecycle basis, consistent with CORSIA eligible fuels methodology.

“A successful outcome requires focusing on defining an ambitious vision that prioritises the environmental and social integrity of alternative fuels and therefore avoids trading an environmental threat for another,” said a statement presented at CAAF/3. “The focus should always be on quality rather than quantity.”

In addition to a robust sustainability standard, said the NGOs, CAAF/3 should emphasise transparency to ensure alternative fuels are accurately reported and accounted for, with the avoidance of double counting critical for integrity.

The statement notes that whereas the CAAF/2 vision focused solely on sustainable aviation fuels, the scope for CAAF/3 has been expanded to cover not only other cleaner energy sources such as cryogenic hydrogen and electricity, but also lower carbon aviation fuels (LCAF) of fossil origin.

“ICSA believes that while LCAF may have potentially lower carbon emissions on a lifecycle basis, all fuels of fossil origin must, by definition, be regarded as unsustainable. The CAAF/3 Vision should avoid the use of encompassing terms such as ‘sustainable fuels’ and instead use suitable terms such as ‘alternative fuels’.

To coincide with CAAF/3, Emirates this week has become the first airline to operate an A380 demonstration flight using 100% SAF. In a collaboration with Airbus, Engine Alliance, Pratt & Whitney, ENOC, Neste and Virent, the Emirates aircraft took off from Dubai International Airport with one of its four engines powered on 100% SAF. The flight carried four tonnes of SAF, comprised of HEFA-SPK provided by Neste and HDO-SAK (hydro deoxygenated synthetic aromatic kerosene) from Virent. ENOC helped to secure the neat SAF comprised of HEFA-SPK and blended it with SAK at its facility in the airport.

The 100% SAF was used in one Engine Alliance GP7200 engine, while conventional jet fuel was used in the other three engines. The PW980 auxiliary power unit from Pratt & Whitney Canada also ran on 100% SAF. The flight on November 22 was preceded by robust engine testing, with the objective of validating the engine’s capability to run on the specially blended 100% drop-in SAF without affecting its performance or requiring modifications. Ground engine testing took place at the Emirates Engineering Centre in Dubai.

Earlier this year, Emirates completed the first 100% SAF-powered demonstration flight in the region on a GE90-powered Boeing 777-300ER. Shell has supplied Emirates with 315,000 gallons of blended SAF for use at Dubai and the airline currently uplifts SAF in Norway and France. Emirates recently expanded its partnership with Neste for the supply of over 3 million gallons of blended SAF in 2024 and 2025 for flights departing from Amsterdam Schiphol and Singapore Changi airports.

“The growing global demand for lower-emission jet fuel alternatives is there, and the work of producers and suppliers to commercialise SAF and make it available will be critical in the coming years to help Emirates and the wider industry advance our path to lower carbon emissions,” commented Adel Al Redha, COO, Emirates Airline.

Videos of the CAAF/3 proceedings are available on ICAO TV

Top photo: ICAO Council President Salvatore Sciacchitano addresses CAAF/3

Emirates A380 100% SAF demonstration flight:

Christopher Surgenor

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A recent hybrid meeting of high-level representatives at ICAO has led to cautious optimism that the UN agency’s member states could reach a collective agreement at their forthcoming Assembly on a long-term aspirational goal (LTAG) of net zero carbon emissions from international aviation by 2050. In a concluding summary of the meeting (HLM-LTAG) held in Montreal, ICAO and its member states were encouraged to “strive to achieve” the goal in support of the Paris Agreement’s temperature aims, recognising that it should allow for the differing capabilities and circumstances of countries. The meeting’s outcomes will now be considered by ICAO’s governing Council before a resolution can be put forward at the 41st Assembly starting late September. The aviation industry has already adopted a net zero 2050 target and the sector’s Air Transport Action Group described the meeting as a significant step forward. A senior US official close to the negotiations said it was a positive development in the lead up to the Assembly. However, some important countries remain opposed to the goal with China saying at the end of the meeting it was “completely dissatisfied” with the outcome.

ICAO has been studying the “feasibility” of a LTAG since requested to do so by member states in 2010, which resulted in a major report by the Council’s environmental technical committee (CAEP) published in March, following two years of work by 280 experts that covered long-term trends, the emissions reduction potential of new technologies and fuels, as well as the cost implications (see article). Outside its remit were recommendations of what the goal should be or how residual emissions – those emissions not reduced by in-sector means – should be accounted for in order to reach net zero.

The HLM-LTAG, with representatives attending in-person or virtually from 104 member states and 15 international organisations, considered inputs from states and international organisations covering the different scenarios and options for in-sector CO2 reductions, based on the latest technological innovations, new types of aircraft and operations, and an increased global production capability for sustainable aviation fuels. No discussions took place on market-based measures, such as ICAO’s CORSIA out-of-sector carbon offsetting scheme, even though under the CAEP report’s most ambitious scenario, the net zero by 2050 goal cannot be achieved by in-sector emissions reductions alone.

A major challenge that has faced negotiators at ICAO over many years on climate goals is reconciling differences between developed and developing countries over the governing principles and responsibilities for dealing with emissions from international aviation. Countries like China, India and Russia have objected to ICAO’s mid-term goal of carbon neutral growth and have so far not joined CORSIA’s voluntary phases. China has always contended the UN climate principle of common but differentiated responsibilities and respective capabilities (CBDR) must take precedence over the non-discrimination and equal treatment principle set out in the Chicago Convention that underpins ICAO.

“CBDR is the cornerstone for all countries to establish wide international cooperation to address climate change,” said a working paper (WP/23) submitted by China for the HLM-LTAG. “ICAO’s efforts to conduct a feasibility analysis of any proposed LTAGs shall be aligned with the principle of CBDR.” Another paper submitted by China, together with India, Russian Federation and Saudi Arabia, said: “The developed nations must take [the] immediate lead in reducing carbon emissions and provide adequate implementation assistance to others; and recommend that ICAO as part of LTAG should make building assistance mechanisms [a] priority, and provide developing countries with adequate technical, funding and capacity-building, so as to strengthen the efforts of developing countries to address international aviation and climate change.”

While the concluding document from the HLM-LTAG specifically mentions a long-term aspirational goal of net zero carbon emissions by 2050, each state “is urged to contribute to achieving the goal in a socially, economically and environmentally sustainable manner and in accordance with national circumstances” and “contribute to the LTAG” within its own national timeframe. China has indicated a target of achieving carbon neutrality “before” 2060 and India has pledged to reach it by 2070.

Recognising that the largest potential impact on reducing aviation in-sector CO2 emissions will come from fuel-related measures, ICAO and its members states are encouraged to work with industry on new aircraft technologies and implementing enhanced air and ground operations, as well as with relevant stakeholders on research, development and deployment of sustainable aviation fuels, lower carbon aviation fuels and other cleaner energy sources for aviation. The document acknowledges substantial financial investments will be required and invites ICAO “to further consider the establishment of a climate finance initiative or funding mechanism under ICAO, while addressing the possible financial, institutional and legal challenges, and report to the 42nd Session [in 2025] of the ICAO Assembly.”

A working paper submitted by the EU and other ECAC states suggested the ICAO Voluntary Environment Fund “should be more visible” and states be encouraged to contribute to it, “whilst earmarking contributions for specific ICAO activities on LTAG”. A working paper presented by Brazil, India, Nigeria, Russian Federation and Sudan, and supported by some Latin American countries, recommended the establishment of a Multilateral Fund for Sustainable Aviation under the control of ICAO that would provide public and private stakeholders in developing countries with financing, capacity-building and technology transfer to help achieve an LTAG. An information paper from Australia, Costa Rica and the United Kingdom proposed the establishment of a Climate Finance Initiative, led by ICAO “as a trusted facilitator”, to bring states, industry, finance institutions and the investment community together to support, in particular, the most vulnerable developing states to access private sector financing.

ICAO set up a well-received programme to help developing states with their introduction of the CORSIA carbon offsetting scheme, called the Assistance, Capacity-building and Training for CORSIA (ACT-CORSIA). In June it established a similar programme for sustainable aviation fuels (ACT-SAF) and it is now recommended by the HLM to be extended to add support for the implementation of other emissions reduction measures in an ACT-LTAG programme. “Additionally, ICAO is encouraged to promote the voluntary transfer of technology, in particular for developing countries and states having particular needs, to enable them to adapt to cutting-edge technology and enhance their contribution to achieve the LTAG,” said the HLM-LTAG concluding text.

The outcome, described as a compromise by a number of states participating, was welcomed by the cross-industry Air Transport Action Group (ATAG), which has been urging ICAO states to adopt an LTAG at their 41st Assembly in line with the sector’s own established net zero by 2050 goal. It said a globally-aligned policy environment would bring stability of direction and certainty to bring about needed investments in new fuels and decarbonisation technologies.

“These negotiations are challenging as the different approaches of states are explored. But the effort to come together around a common goal of net zero has been encouraging and lays the groundwork for fruitful discussions at the Assembly,” said ATAG’s Executive Director, Haldane Dodd.

“Aviation decarbonisation is a huge challenge that needs investment and innovation from the industry, but also a coordinated approach with ICAO and its member states to set the appropriate policy frameworks required for success.”

In closing remarks to the four-day HLM-LTAG meeting, ICAO Secretary General Juan Carlos Salazar said: “Recovering from the effects of the pandemic and combatting climate change go hand-in-hand. As a global sector, aviation has a golden opportunity to show leadership as we ‘build back better’, aiming towards a sustainable decarbonised future.”

A full report of the meeting is available here. The ICAO Assembly runs from 27 September to 7 October.

Top photo: ICAO building

Bottom photo (ICAO): Closing session of HLM-LTAG

Aviation industry pressure is intensifying on governments to adopt a long-term goal to help decarbonise air transport when they meet at this year’s ICAO 41st Assembly. Executives from across the industry have met to detail aviation’s climate aspirations ahead of the Assembly, to be held in September. At a Montreal meeting, the cross-industry Air Transport Action Group (ATAG) urged ICAO’s 193 member nations to agree on stable policies that enable aviation to transition to a net-zero future, reports Tony Harrington. “The decarbonisation of the global economy will require investment across countries and across decades, particularly in the transition away from fossil fuels,” said Haldane Dodd, ATAG’s Executive Director. “Stability of policy will matter for that investment environment.” The Clean Skies for Tomorrow Coalition, an initiative led by the World Economic Forum, has also called for an end to policy uncertainty on aviation decarbonisation, urging governments and industry to collaborate, particularly on expediting delivery of affordable supplies of sustainable aviation fuels.

The aviation industry is keen to reduce its emissions. But the cost of SAF is estimated to be at least three times that of conventional fossil fuels, deterring many airlines from buying the fuel, while lack of demand has left prices high and production low. As well, new propulsion technologies including hydrogen and electric power are still in development, and initially likely to be feasible only for short-range flights, limiting their potential to reduce emissions.

“In October last year, the industry – airlines, airports, manufacturers and business aviation – all committed to raise ambition on long-term climate action and pursuing net-zero carbon emissions by 2050,” said Dodd, in a statement following an ATAG-organised meeting, Aviation Net-Zero Dialogue, held in Montreal. “This was backed up by a high-level plan on how it can be achieved including advances in technology and a shift to new types of low-carbon fuel.

“We are one of the only industries in the world to have this kind of joined-up global vision but we need governments to also take part in this journey. The aviation industry is calling on governments meeting at this year’s Assembly to adopt a long-term climate goal aligned with industry’s ambitions.

“We know these ICAO negotiations are challenging. We are dealing with a global approach to a complex issue. We are trying to shift our energy supply very rapidly from something that has been built up over the last century. We are trying to do it without harming growth, ensuring we can continue to connect all parts of the world and provide jobs and be a conduit of trade. But the risks of not agreeing a goal also provide important impetus to the talks.”

ATAG said key to the discussions was balancing the need to decarbonise in a way that did not distort competition globally yet “raised climate ambition everywhere”, while taking into account the different levels of development and capacity around the world.

Speaking also at a UN meeting in Stockholm to mark 50 years since the 1972 UN Conference on the Human Environment, which established the United Nations Environment Programme and other processes including the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change, Dodd acknowledged the net zero emissions by 2050 pledge “is going to be a significant challenge, but we know that by working together we can make it happen.

“And we urge governments to grasp the opportunity of sustainable aviation fuel – on the flightpath to 2050, we have the chance to support more climate-friendly connectivity and transport, green energy industries in nearly every country on earth and up to 14 million jobs worldwide.”

Ahead of its Assembly, ICAO is inviting governments to take part in a hybrid high-level meeting on the feasibility of a long-term aspirational goal (HLM-LTAG) in Montreal on July 19-22. Representatives, said ICAO, “will discuss the CO2 emissions reduction scenarios and options for a goal, along with the means of implementation and the monitoring of progress, before concluding with recommendations.” The meeting will be preceded by an open-to-all online ICAO Stocktaking event to inform delegates and others on the latest developments on technology, operations and fuels.

Meanwhile, the Clean Skies for Tomorrow Coalition, in its newly-released 2030 ambition statement, said aviation historically accounted for around 1 billion tonnes, or 2-3% of global CO2 emissions, each year and risked rising again as airlines recovered from the pandemic and resumed operations.  

“Members of the coalition agree that achieving net zero in the sector will require reduction, as far as possible, of the emissions caused by the aviation sector through efforts including the optimisation of routes and increased energy efficiency through the use of new aircraft and improved ground operations,” said the coalition. “Any remaining emissions must be balanced by appropriate carbon removal, so as to arrive at net zero emissions in the sector.

“Hybrid-electric and hydrogen-powered aircraft could significantly help the industry reach the next efficiency horizon, but development and deployment at scale will take time and the technology will be first available for short to medium range aircraft. The deployment of sustainable aviation fuels is the most promising option to significantly reduce the industry’s carbon emissions in the near term, and for long-haul flying, even beyond 2050.

“The key issue currently preventing the production and use of SAF from taking off is the price gap between fossil-based jet fuel and SAF, which remains prohibitively large. But fuel providers are lacking a strong demand signal to increase production, and demand is low due to the high price premium. Furthermore, policy uncertainty deters investment, as does the high level of risk associated with new technologies.

“We are therefore calling on governments, international organisations and other stakeholders to work with us to achieve our vision through comprehensive policy mechanisms, targeted investments and fiscal support and regulations that afford a level playing field while incentivising transformation. Together we can take a giant leap towards the decarbonised, sustainable and affordable aviation industry needed for our global future.”

Photo: Montréal-Pierre Elliott Trudeau International Airport

Bio-based feedstock availability for SAF will likely only be sufficient to supply 50% of the SAF required to meet IATA’s net zero carbon by 2050 target, concludes an ICF report prepared for the second edition of the cross-industry Air Transport Action Group’s Waypoint 2050 report. The other 50% of projected fuel demand by 2050 will have to come from Power-to-Liquid (PtL) technology, finds ICF. Although HEFA SAF is fully commercial and currently supplies most SAF, the availability of sustainable feedstocks will limit its overall contribution to SAF volumes to less than 10% by 2050. The Waypoint 2050 report estimates that 330-445 million tonnes of SAF, alongside technological and operational improvements, will be required for the global aviation industry to achieve net zero carbon emissions by 2050, reports Susan van Dyk. Speaking at the recent 2021 ATAG Global Sustainable Aviation Forum, Kata Cserep, ICF Global Managing Director of Aviation, said the ICF study set out to answer three simple questions: is there enough feedstock to produce the SAF required, how much will it cost, and where will it come from?

The size of the challenge is significant, said Cserep, and about 400 million tonnes (around 500 billion litres) of SAF will be required by 2050, representing an increase of 8000% from last year’s SAF production. But the ICF report shows that this can be done, she stated, mapping the pathway to achieve the projected quantities of SAF needed by 2050, including feedstock availability, number of production facilities and the total investment cost that will be required.

The projected volume of SAF by 2050 will depend on the extent that technologies such as hydrogen and electric aircraft can deliver emission reductions in the sector. Between 5,000 and 7,000 SAF production facilities will be required to deliver these volumes at a total infrastructure investment cost of $1-1.5 trillion dollars over 30 years. Put into perspective, explained Cserep, the annual investment cost will only be about 6% of historical annual investment in the oil and gas sector.

The regional distribution of feedstocks and SAF production forms a key part of the report as the nature of the feedstock dictates that production will take place closer to the sources of feedstock, making SAF production a more distributed energy source through all regions, unlike oil and gas which is highly concentrated in a few countries. The benefits of SAF also lie in its ability to create jobs, with 23 people employed today for every $1 million invested in bioenergy. SAF production at these levels will be able to sustain up to 14 million jobs in the collection and processing of the feedstock, with 90% of the jobs across the supply chain, said Cserep.

Feedstock availability is a prerequisite for SAF production. The WEF-CST report published earlier this year also analysed feedstock availability for SAF production, but did not take competing uses of feedstocks for bioenergy and other applications into account, according to Alastair Blanshard, Senior Manager and Sustainable Aviation Lead at ICF and the lead author on the ICF study.

As a result, the WEF-CST analysis concluded feedstock availability was not a limitation for SAF production and that enough biogenic feedstocks were available worldwide to produce about 500 million tonnes (621 billion litres) of SAF by 2050. In contrast, the ICF study built on bioenergy feedstock analysis by the IEA and Energy Transitions Commission to calculate that biogenic feedstocks will only be able to deliver about half of SAF requirements by 2050. Feedstocks assessed in the ICF report were limited based on sustainability and excluded crops such as vegetable oils, corn, sugarcane and others in keeping with the sector’s sustainability goals, explained Blanchard.

Under the most aggressive SAF deployment scenario, SAF can be delivered in three main phases (see graph below), Cserep told the ATAG Forum. The HEFA (Hydroprocessed Esters and Fatty Acids) process, which uses waste lipids, is the only commercial pathway today and is in a rapid scale-up phase. However, HEFA will become feedstock constrained, limiting it to less than 10% of total SAF production by 2050. The next two decades will be dominated by advanced feedstocks, such as municipal solid waste (MSW) and forest residues, and using technologies such as alcohol-to-jet (AtJ), Fischer-Tropsch (FT) and others. PtL technology is expected to start producing significant volumes after 2035. Although this technology does not require biogenic feedstocks, Blanshard estimates it will require eight TWh of renewable electricity to deliver projected 2050 volumes, which alongside electricity to charge battery and hybrid aircraft, is likely to be just under 10% of all renewable electricity.

The high cost of SAF is considered a significant obstacle for airlines. “The perception of cost is always the first stumbling block,” commented Blanshard. However, the ICF analysis demonstrates SAF production prices will decrease in all feedstock and technology combinations, driven by technology advances, economies of scale and increased carbon efficiency. When including the value of carbon, the fuel price is expected to be between $760-$900 per tonne of SAF by 2050, well within the historical range of fossil fuel.

The report did not address the policies required to achieve this level of SAF production, and analysis was based on a simplified policy environment with a global price on carbon, said Blanshard. Most thinking today is unfortunately based on volumes of fuel, rather than percentage carbon abated, he stated.

Significant policy developments have been taking place recently, including proposals for SAF blending mandates in Europe and the UK, and a SAF blenders tax credit in the USA. The proposed EU mandate is a volumetric mandate, whereas the UK mandate proposal prioritises carbon emissions savings through a GHG emissions scheme issuing credits proportional to the kilograms of CO2e saved. The US blenders tax credit and the California Low Carbon Fuel Standard similarly rewards greater carbon intensity reductions, spurring many companies in the US to target net zero SAF and even negative carbon intensity through measures such renewable electricity, green hydrogen and carbon capture and storage.

While the ICF report capped carbon intensity at a 100% reduction, negative carbon intensity SAF should be able to reduce the volumes required by 2050.

Top image: Shell

Susan van Dyk

GreenAir Correspondent

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A coalition of global aviation industry associations, representing airports, air traffic management and makers of aircraft and engines, have reinforced the new adoption by IATA’s member airlines of a long-term climate goal of net zero carbon emissions by 2050. A declaration released by the cross-industry Air Transport Action Group (ATAG) commits global civil aviation operations to achieving the same goal through accelerated efficiency measures, energy transition and innovation across the aviation sector, and in partnership with governments around the world. At its Annual General Meeting in Boston on October 4, IATA passed a resolution to adopt the net zero goal that updates the previous less ambitious long-term goal agreed industry-wide in 2009. To coincide with the new goal, ATAG has released new analysis that it says outlines credible paths for the air transport sector to reach its decarbonisation target, reports Mark Pilling.

Commenting on the industry-wide ‘Commitment to Fly Net Zero’, Haldane Dodd, Acting Executive Director of ATAG said: “Aviation has increased its ambition in line with the need for all sectors of the economy to pursue rigorous climate action. Despite having endured the greatest crisis in aviation history, this new agreement shows that our sector has placed climate action as one of its highest priorities. It will be a significant challenge to meet net zero carbon emissions by 2050, but the evidence shows that with the right support from governments and efforts across the value chain, especially the energy industry, it is achievable.”

The industry stakeholders said a mix of new technology, including potentially shifting to electricity and hydrogen for some shorter services; improvements in operations and infrastructure; and a transition to sustainable aviation fuel by mid-century would provide the majority of the carbon reductions. Remaining emissions would be captured using carbon removals measures.

Dodd said it was vital governments showed their support through national policy measures focused on innovation and energy transition, and urged ICAO Member States to adopt a long-term aspirational goal in line with industry commitments at their next Assembly in 2022.

Luis Felipe de Oliveira, Director General of airports industry body ACI World, which has already set a long-term net zero goal for airports, added his urgency for ICAO to adopt the industry goal. “The road ahead will be challenging but aviation is no stranger to challenges,” he said. “Our historic declaration shows the determination of the sector to work together to take this important climate action. It is now imperative that governments support these efforts to make this vital sector sustainable.”

Simon Hocquard, Director General of CANSO, which represents air navigation service providers globally, said: “Sustainability is becoming the global issue for aviation. With many environmental gains hedging on sustainable aviation fuels, hydrogen and electrification of aircraft, it is vital we fast-track air traffic management improvements while carbon-based fuels are still commonplace.”

Referencing the updated Waypoint 2050 report, Dodd said: “It shows several scenarios, focusing on new technology options such as electric and hydrogen aircraft for the short-haul fleet, to a complete shift to sustainable aviation fuel for medium- and long-haul operations. We have identified the building blocks needed and the scale of the challenge is substantial, but with supportive government policy and the backing of the energy sector, it can be done.”

The report outlines several scenarios or pathways for the decarbonisation of air transport. One scenario focuses industry attention on sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) as the key component of action and identifies that 445 million tonnes of this low-carbon fuel would be needed by the sector in 2050. This SAF energy transition would require an investment of up to $1.45 trillion over 30 years. Annualised, this is around 6% of yearly oil and gas capital expenditure. It would create opportunities for energy industries to develop in countries across the world and potentially sustain up to 14 million jobs in operation, logistics, feedstock supply and construction.

“Importantly, this is a conservative analysis based on rigorous sustainability criteria and feedstock constraints,” said Dodd. “It shows that a build-up in capacity from sources such as agricultural, municipal and industrial wastes is available today. It also shows that over time, as costs reduce, there will be a shift to other sources such as jet fuel made from low-carbon electricity. The cost of this fuel will also reduce and, with the right government policy and energy industry support, could be competitive with fossil jet fuel.”

Another scenario places the emphasis on radical new technologies and energy sources such as electricity and hydrogen. Battery electric options may be available for small commuter aircraft of between 9-19 seats before the end of the 2020s. Hydrogen as a source of fuel could potentially power larger aircraft for short-haul operations from the middle of the 2030s.

“Both electric and hydrogen options for aircraft are exciting opportunities to test the innovative skill the industry has always displayed,” said Dodd. “Challenges remain in deploying these options, but their benefits could be significant. Coupled with SAF, particularly for longer-range missions, passengers in 2050 will have access to almost zero-carbon flights. Already, we have implemented measures that mean a flight produces around the same per-passenger emissions as a small car with average occupancy, adding in these new technical solutions will lead us beyond that and towards zero carbon connectivity.

“Air transport is a vital driver of global economic development, social cohesion, family connections and business opportunities. Governments can play a key role in helping to sustain a green recovery for aviation from the Covid-19 crisis and a path towards net zero emissions from air transport. The next decade will set the sustainable aviation agenda out to 2050 and beyond. This is a crucial period.”

Image: ATAG

Mark Pilling

GreenAir Contributing Editor

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Counterintuitively, the global pandemic has catalysed the aviation sector’s approach in a very positive way to climate action despite going through the worst period in aviation history, said Haldane Dodd, the incoming Executive Director of the cross-industry Air Transport Action Group at its 2021 Global Sustainable Aviation Forum. Momentum had gathered pace over the past 18 months with real climate policy developments and a major push had taken place on sustainable aviation fuels (SAF), he said, citing that since the start of Covid-19, over 6.3 billion litres of new SAF purchasing commitments had been made by airlines globally, around the same amount committed across the previous six years. However, Dodd acknowledged the decarbonisation transition will not be easy. It needed, he said, clear direction “from the top” and called for the “overdue” long-term climate goal to be adopted by States at next year’s ICAO Assembly. In an opening address, ICAO Council President Salvatore Sciacchitano said the post-Covid outcome should not be a reversion to business as usual and bold sustainability commitments to building back better and much stronger “must now be the order of the day.”

Sciacchitano stated aviation required a strategic, long-term approach to climate change and that States at the 2019 ICAO Assembly had requested the governing ICAO Council to continue to explore the feasibility of a long-term global aspirational goal for international aviation.

“We’ve accordingly broadened our umbrella to include all relevant stakeholders, made sure the best expertise is being applied to the long-term goal’s data and scenarios, and we’re pursuing a transparent and inclusive process of advance consultation with States,” he reported. “Important contributions to our long-term goal assessment process have been made by the 2020 and 2021 Stocktaking Seminars we’ve hosted on aviation in-sector CO2 emission reductions. Thousands of participants have joined us for these events, indicating how front of mind this issue is for so many today, and industry has been eager to make use of the seminars as the platforms for their announcements on some ambitious net zero commitments.”

He said the events had showcased many new aviation developments relating to advanced and novel aircraft technologies, operational improvements both in the air and on the ground, and opportunities for scaling up SAF.

“The potential of these innovations in reducing CO2 emissions is undeniable, and while the pace of them is also impressive, I am here today to call on all stakeholders to collectively do much more,” he told delegates to the virtual event. “Governments can help to promote and, when appropriate, subsidise private sector innovation, but the true responsibility and capacity to innovate in air transport will always rest with the manufacturers, operators and system managers who design and fly the aircraft and manage their safe course through our skies.”

He called for the recovery from the pandemic to show a “spirit of cooperation and common purpose” to leverage emission reductions and the eventual elimination of emissions. “I believe that innovation has already demonstrated the promise that our sector can continue to expand its services and deliver systemic and sustainable prosperity and mobility benefits to societies all over the world, even as we continue to decrease overall sectoral emissions,” he said.

A political session during the Forum focused on efforts to reach an agreement at ICAO on the long-term aspirational emissions reduction goal. Ross Adams, Australia’s Permanent Representative at ICAO, said a lot of technical and analysis work had taken place over the past two years within the Committee on Aviation Environmental Protection (CAEP) and would continue up to the next Assembly later in 2022. CAEP is looking at credible pathways, he said, for achieving in-sector emission reductions, along with a range of scenarios based on technical feasibility and attainability.

“The aim is not to tell Member States what the goal should be but rather to provide all the information they need to make an informed decision about a long-term goal, how we could get there and what the options are when this comes before the Assembly,” he said. “The pleasing aspect has been the deliberative and inclusive approach ICAO has taken on this work and also the increasing engagement from both Member States and industry in the process. Certainly, challenges lie ahead but the momentum is building for collective action between States and industry.”

Angie Ahmed Abdallah Mostafa, the Representative of Egypt on the ICAO Council, said that although many discussions had taken place in the Council on the target, explanations were still needed on how it could be achieved and there were different points of view on the Council, where many States were focused on the recovery from the global pandemic. The long-term goal process would require technology transfer, capacity building and financing of new technology and infrastructure, she said.

“ICAO Member States need to clearly understand what is at stake and what are the impacts,” she said. “We need a fair goal that takes into account the principles of ‘Common but differentiated responsibilities’ (CBDR) and ‘Special circumstances and respective capabilities’ (SCRC). The goal should not be a ‘one size fits all’ but if there is a goal that can suit everyone, maybe we can move faster.”

The United States’ Principal Deputy Assistant Secretary for Aviation and International Affairs, Annie Petsonk, said the US under the Biden administration had a strong commitment on aviation and climate change, and was looking forward to participating in the discussions leading up to the Assembly next year.

“With the economy-wide net zero by 2050 climate target set by President Biden this year, the US is moving into a position of leadership at ICAO, not only on climate but across the board,” she said.

“ICAO though faces an enormous challenge and its credibility is on the line,” she warned. “It is 25 years since ICAO was handed the task of addressing GHG emissions from international civil aviation in 1997 by the Conference of the Parties. We recognise the technology challenges but if ICAO is able to identify and agree on a clear long-term aspirational goal then that would make an enormous difference in pointing the direction and the goals for engineers, entrepreneurs and innovators all over the world to direct their energies in the aviation sector towards meeting that goal. It can also help demonstrate to countries that it can deliver jobs, new developments at home and benefit local communities.”

Tim Johnson, Director of the Aviation Environment Federation, which is a member of the ICSA group of NGOs represented at ICAO, added it would be only 28 years to 2050 by the time of the Assembly next year and just 25 by the following Assembly. “We can’t afford to miss this opportunity. We hear from industry about long-term planning, creating certainty and getting the right investment, and this will take all the intervening years between now and 2050. There is public expectation and ICAO really has to seize this moment and deliver an ambitious long-term goal.

“Not only do we want a zero-carbon industry, however, we also need an industry with a zero climate impact to take into account aviation’s non-CO2 effects as, after all, it’s a temperature-based goal we’re working towards.”

Introducing a session to showcase new technology innovations, aeronautical pioneer and Chairman of the Solar Impulse Foundation, Bertrand Piccard, said having a clean aviation sector by 2035 was a reasonable goal. “Those who say it is impossible will look as stupid as those who made fun of the Wright Brothers before their first flight in 1903.”

He said 20% of today’s aviation emissions could be cut through operational procedures such as flying direct routes, continuous descent approaches, optimised fuel consumption and electric taxiing. The remaining 80% should be compensated for by airlines with immediate effect, he said. “This may shock you,” he told delegates, “but I believe all CO2 emissions emitted by aviation must be reabsorbed somewhere else. The CORSIA offsetting scheme is not enough. Taking 2019 as a benchmark while the rest of the world is taking 1990 as theirs, is stimulating the ecological resistance against aviation.

“It is vital for the future of aviation to recover from the Covid-19 crisis but it is also crucial the cost of CO2 from every flight is charged on the passenger ticket,” he said. “This won’t kill aviation but it will show a lot is being done to solve the problem and we can be carbon neutral immediately if airlines decide to do so. I love aviation and it’s not only for the environment that we have to do it, it’s for the future of aviation itself.”

Photo: ICAO

The main focus of this year’s Global Sustainable Aviation Forum, organised by the cross-industry Air Transport Action Group (ATAG), was the publication of Waypoint 2050, an analysis of pathways towards the sector’s long-term climate goal. Set over a decade ago, the target calls for a 50% net reduction in CO2 emissions by 2050 from what they were in 2005. This would mean a reduction from around 914 million tonnes (Mt) in global commercial airline carbon emissions in 2019 to 325 Mt in 2050. At the global level, the industry does not foresee reaching net-zero emissions before 2060/2065 although recognises a number of airlines will reach this by 2050, in response to national or regional goals. Given current traffic forecasts, which have been downgraded due to Covid-19, emissions could rise to 1,800 Mt by 2050 on a business-as-usual trajectory and reaching the reduction target will be a significant challenge, says ATAG, with the next 10 years being a crucial period.

“We should be under no illusion that the decarbonisation path for aviation is an easy one,” ATAG’s Executive Director, Michael Gill, told the virtual conference. “But our Waypoint 2050 analysis shows that decarbonisation is possible, and in a number of different ways. We now need the commitment from governments, the energy industry, researchers and from the aviation sector itself to make it happen.”

In its ‘Vision for 2050’, the Waypoint report expects the aviation sector to be transporting around 10 billion passengers a year, more than twice 2019 levels but 16% less than previous forecasts due to the impact of the Covid-19 pandemic. This represents a compound annual growth rate of 3% from 2019 to 2050. Much of the growth will take place in Asia-Pacific, the Middle East, Africa and Latin America, although significant growth will remain in North America and Europe. The industry sees three possible limits to growth: environmental concerns from consumers, governments moving to reduce growth, or a shift to other modes of transport, such as rail. However, it expects these to have limited impact. Covid-19 will have a major impact though on the sector’s carbon emissions in the short term and IATA expects this year they will be around 60% lower than in 2019.

New energy sources in 2050 will enable electric and hybrid-electric aircraft – with virtually no CO2 emissions at all – on short- and medium-haul routes, connecting secondary cities and small communities with larger hubs for onward long-haul flights. Most long-haul operations will use aircraft a generation beyond those that are flying today, with nearly all completely powered by sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) from a variety of sources, including power-to-liquid (PtL) fuels that are made by combining low-carbon electricity with CO2 removed from the air.

Although aircraft technology innovations and improvements in operations and infrastructure will continue to bring fuel and carbon reductions, the Waypoint report says the single largest opportunity to meet and go beyond the industry’s 2050 goal is the rapid and worldwide scaling up of SAF and new energy sources. A nearly complete shift to SAF, with a requirement of up to 450-500 million tonnes, will be needed, it says. This is achievable without impacting food or water use through using a range of available feedstocks, from non-food crops to waste sources and eventually a shift to PtL fuels and hydrogen. However, it will require support from government and the energy sector, with policies to ensure feedstocks are channelled towards aviation and not to other transport sectors where alternative energy sources are available.

The report explores three consolidated scenarios for how air transport can meet its long-term goal. Which of these scenarios plays out over time will likely be determined by how investment is prioritised in both SAF deployment and radical new aircraft technologies; whether energy providers can massively scale up SAF and hydrogen production at the same time; and if governments, finance institutions and consumers play the required role to accelerate the energy transition. There is a good case for current fossil fuel consumption subsidies around the world – worth $4.4 trillion over the last decade – to be re-directed towards low-carbon energy, it argues.

“For sustainable aviation fuel in particular, we need support from governments in the next decade to help set the stage for the future of low carbon connectivity,” said Gill. “These new fuels are already flying today – over 270,000 commercial flights have taken off so far – but are still a tiny part of our overall fuel mix. We know that we can begin the energy transition away from fossil fuels in earnest, but we need support to do so.”

Reaching the 2050 goal comes with a significant price tag for the sector, points out the report.

“If airlines are investing in new aircraft, they may have less ability to also invest heavily in SAF scale-up. Likewise, some significant decisions need to be made: does it make more sense to have a singular focus on traditional liquid SAF or wait a decade for electric or hydrogen aircraft to be available,” it questions.

“The reality is the sector will need to investigate all options and pursue those that make the most sense, but there is unlikely to be bandwidth, financing or resources to push all levers at once.”

The report acknowledges that in the event the contribution from technology, operations and infrastructure improvements, plus emissions reduction from SAF, are not sufficient to meet the 2050 goal, there could be a need for the industry to compensate remaining emissions through offsetting beyond the intended ending of ICAO’s global carbon offsetting scheme CORSIA in 2035.

Sources of offsets could change significantly in the future, it says, and as well as forestry and natural climate solutions, technologies such as carbon capture and storage (CCS) and direct air carbon capture and sequestration (DACCS) could form the basis for viable offsets. However, it warns there is likely to be a large amount of residual CO2 emissions still being generated across the economy in 2050 and beyond, and there could be competition to secure remaining offsets, which could result in scarcity and high prices.

The report argues the aviation sector’s 2050 goal to halve net CO2 emissions on a 2005 baseline is compatible with the Paris Agreement goal to limit global temperature rise to “well below 2 degrees C above pre-industrial levels”. To meet a 1.5 degree C goal will require a peaking of emissions across the economy between 2020 and 2030 and a rapid reduction in emissions towards net-zero emissions by mid-century.

“For hard-to-decarbonise sectors such as air transport, meeting the 1.5 degree C goal and keeping a small percentage of overall human emissions will be a major challenge,” it says. “For aviation to play a role in helping to achieve the 1.5 degree C pathway, it is likely that global aviation would need to reach net-zero emissions in the middle years of the century (2050 to 2070). This is in line with the projected post-2050 situation outlined in this report, finding that aviation could reach net-zero emissions by 2060/65, but assumes all other sectors also make aggressive cuts in CO2 emissions in line with their technical ability to do so.

“Governments are now taking action and setting ambitious climate targets. It is recognised that some regions may be able to transition their aviation industry to net-zero carbon emissions earlier than others.”

The industry report calls on all governments to set a long-term CO2 goal for international aviation at ICAO’s next Assembly in 2022 that was compatible with the most recent scientific evidence from the UN’s Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change.

In an address to the ATAG conference, ICAO Council President Salvatore Sciacchitano said the Covid-19 crisis provided an opportunity to build back the commercial aviation sector greener and more sustainably, including its role in the social and climate impacts of international travel and tourism. He welcomed the recent announcement of the commitment by the oneworld airline alliance to reach net-zero emissions by 2050, adding green aviation innovations would feed into ICAO’s exploration of the feasibility for a long-term goal.