With the EU about to activate its sustainable aviation fuel blending mandate, the European Union Aviation Safety Agency (EASA) has released an assessment of Europe’s preparedness to deliver required volumes of SAF up to 2030. The blending requirement will escalate from a minimum 2% of jet fuel composition by the end of 2025 to 70% in 2050 for supplies dispensed at airports across the EU’s 27 member states. EASA concludes that by 2030, when the blending mandate reaches 6%, there will be sufficient European production of SAF through multiple pathways to meet the requirements of the ReFuelEU Aviation regulation, which governs the mandate. But it warns rapid action is needed to ensure that a sub-target, initially 0.7%, is achieved for the use of increasingly important synthetic aviation fuels, or e-fuels.

The EASA report, titled ‘State of the EU SAF market in 2023’, examines the capacity of member states to produce the new fuels during the next five years, based on an assessment of the sector’s performance in 2023 and the addition of updated projections. The report, EASA’s first on this subject, also provides real or estimated reference prices for multiple types of current and future aviation fuels and outlines emerging trends in European SAF production.

“This first report on SAF provides a comprehensive analysis and valuable insights to the potential of sustainable aviation fuels for commercial airline operations in Europe,” commented Maria Rueda, EASA’s Strategy and Safety Management Director. “It will be a key component on the journey towards a more sustainable and environmentally friendly aviation sector.”  

EASA says the minimum SAF volume required by 2030 under the ReFuelEU Aviation (RFEUA) programme is around 2.8 million tonnes based on forecast jet fuel consumption of 46 million tonnes and a mandated blending level which, by then, will be at least 6%.

But it qualifies that the SAF production market is “inherently volatile”, impacted by factors including high capital expenditure, feedstock supply chain limitations and the risks to investors of supporting technologies in their early stages. “While many projects are announced,” adds EASA, “some may not reach commercialisation.”

The report presents three scenarios for SAF production in EU countries: Operating, Realistic and Optimistic.

The ‘Operating’ scenario covers only those facilities currently producing SAF, which are expected to deliver just over 1 million tonnes of product by 2030.

The ‘Realistic’ assumption estimates 3.2 million tonnes of SAF will be produced and distributed by facilities already operating, under construction or with small pilot plants either activated or being built. This includes co-processing of SAF in existing refineries.  

The ‘Optimistic’ case predicts 5.5 million tonnes, including pipeline production from projects which have announced elements including technology, feedstock, SAF capacity, commissioning year, location and technical partners, but are yet to be built.

“The Realistic case led to the exclusion of facilities which had not gone through final investment decision (FID) at the time of assessment,” says the report, singling out e-fuels as an example.

“There is a strong pipeline of synthetic aviation fuel projects in the EU, estimated at 1.1 million tonnes by 2030, but at the time of assessment none of these facilities had gone through FID. They were therefore not included in the realistic capacity estimation.”

The report says the hydrotreated esters and fatty acids (HEFA) process, which encompasses converted vegetable oils, waste oils, greases and fats, is the major SAF production pathway, supported by additional supplies through co-processing facilities.

It adds that immature technology for other SAF production pathways including Alcohol-to-Jet (AtJ) and Fischer-Tropsch (FT) prevented them from delivering commercial volumes of the fuel during the study reference year, 2023.

As well, says EASA, the AtJ process of converting alcohols into SAF disqualifies the fuel in the EU because the alcohols are fermented from food crops including corn and sugarcane. 

Additional pathways, including Sun-to-Liquid (StL) and Hydrothermal Liquidation (HtL), are also under development. “However,” says the report, “they remain immature, with only a couple of pilot plants announced, and their contribution to commercial SAF volumes is projected to be negligible by 2030.”

Synthetic aviation fuel is required to comprise at least 1.2% of jet fuel makeup by 2030, which EASA calculates to be a 600,000-tonne requirement. Also known as Power-to-Liquid, or PtL, this process combines water with renewable electricity to extract green hydrogen, which is then combined with captured CO2 to create SAF and other products such as renewable diesel.

“Within the EU,” says the EASA report, “more than 15 synthetic aviation fuel production facilities have been announced, primarily in countries with considerable renewable electricity capacity or infrastructure.”

However, it adds, the requirement for large volumes of renewable electricity, the costs of producing the power and limited sources of eligible carbon in many key locations drives up the costs of e-fuels.  

“The resulting production price is currently non-competitive with other forms of SAF production, particularly HEFA. Therefore, the development of synthetic aviation fuels is likely to be driven by the RFEUA sub-mandate that requires their supply.”

Of eight current or future aviation fuel categories, the report lists market prices or production cost estimates in 2023, reflecting vast premiums for non-fossil product. EASA used price reporting agency (PRA) references to provide benchmarks for price assessments or a basis for estimates.

“Whereas 2023 prices for conventional aviation fuels and aviation biofuels were available through multiple PRA indexes,” said EASA, “the market for other RFEUA aviation fuel types was either non-existent or not yet liquid enough to determine actual reference market prices for 2023. For these fuel types, a bottom-up production cost estimation was developed to provide indicative results.”

The report listed the average 2023 market price of conventional aviation fuel at €816 ($850) per tonne and aviation biofuels at €2,768 ($2,880) per tonne, the latter with an estimated production cost of €1,770 ($1,840) per tonne.

Because none of the other fuel categories had a market price in 2023, production cost estimates were produced by EASA.

Production costs for recycled carbon aviation fuels were estimated to average €2,125 per tonne, while advanced aviation biofuels averaged €2,675 per tonne, low carbon hydrogen for aviation averaged €4,700 per tonne, synthetic low carbon aviation fuels averaged €5,300 per tonne and renewable hydrogen for aviation averaged €6,925 per tonne.

But by far the largest estimates were those for synthetic aviation fuels, the average production cost of which EASA lists as €7,500 per tonne.

The same average estimate – €7,500 per tonne – also applied to synthetic fuel produced with CO2 captured at the industrial source of emission or that made from biogenic CO2.

The most expensive production cost estimated was for fuel produced with CO2 captured from the atmosphere, averaging €8,225 per tonne – more than 10 times the 2023 average market price of conventional jet fuel.

“To be able to meet the synthetic aviation fuel minimum shares, announced synthetic aviation fuel facilities would need to reach FID within the next couple of years,” says the EASA report.  

“On top of this, continuous scale-up in SAF capacity would be needed to comply with RFEUA by 2035, as the minimum SAF share required increases from 6% to 20% by that date.”

The report, developed with the support of consultancy ICF, is a precursor to a first EASA annual technical report due in 2025.

Photo: OMV

Tony Harrington

Correspondent

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An analysis by major sustainable aviation fuels (SAF) supplier SkyNRG of the European Commission’s ReFuelEU Aviation initiative, part of the ‘Fit for 55’ package of legislative proposals unveiled last week, shows around 300 SAF plants with an average production capacity of around 100,000 tonnes per year will be needed by 2050 to meet EU demand under the SAF blending mandate that underpins the initiative. With only 15 plants expected to be operational by 2027, over 10 plants will therefore be needed to be built in the EU each year thereafter to reach the 2050 requirement unless SAF is imported from outside the EU. However, in its assessment of targeted SAF volumes towards 2030, the scope of the ‘Fit for 55’ package, SkyNRG believes supply can match demand provided currently announced production capacity materialises and either additional production capacity is developed or SAF is imported. After 2030, fast deployment of new SAF technologies will be required up to 2050.

The ‘Fit for 55’ package is intended to help achieve an EU-wide GHG reduction target of 55% by 2030, compared to 1990 levels. The ReFuelEU Aviation proposal includes a 2% blending obligation on fuel suppliers for SAF in 2025, increasing to 5% in 2030 and then rising steeply to 32% by 2040 and 63% in 2050 (see article). A specific sub-mandate applies for e-kerosene (aviation e-fuels described by the Commission as synthetic aviation fuels), which starts with 0.7% in 2030, 8% by 2040 and increases to 28% by 2050. (See Figure 1 below.)

A few EU States have already implemented or are proposing a national blending mandate, with some more ambitious than the Commission’s proposal, which wishes to see EU-wide harmonisation. To meet both the EU-wide mandate and the additional volumes from national mandates, SkyNRG estimates this would require 3.5 million tonnes (Mt) of SAF in 2030, rising to 30 Mt in 2050. This compares with just 0.1 Mt of global SAF production in 2020.

“Our in-depth analysis, ‘A Market Outlook on Sustainable Aviation Fuel’, finds that while the proposed mandates are ambitious, they can be mostly fulfilled with EU production capacity,” said Tom Berg, SkyNRG’s Policy & Sustainability Manager. “To meet the targeted volumes until 2030, however, there will be a heavy reliance on waste oils as feedstock via both the HEFA and co-processing technology pathways. After 2030, technological developments are required fulfil the mandated volumes up to 2050.”

To achieve the rapid deployment of new SAF technologies and the required 300 SAF plants, Berg said: “All stakeholders will need to play their part to engage and address the challenges ahead – governments, investors, industry, and individual and corporate travellers.”

The report says that while up until 2027 the mandated amount of SAF in the EU can be fulfilled with European-based SAF production, this is provided currently announced renewable fuel capacity materialises. The increasing mandated SAF demand up to 2030 can be met with yet-to-be-announced SAF capacity, switching capacity from renewable diesel production or by importing SAF from outside the EU. Beyond 2030, new technologies such as gasification, alcohol-to-jet and power-to-liquids will have to be scaled up speedily but it is unlikely the targeted volumes can be met without structural imports of SAF or intermediate products needed for EU SAF production.

The assessment assumes EU countries adopting more ambitious mandates than those proposed stick to their decisions to create a national mandate ‘top-up’ and EU (excluding UK) jet fuel demand recovers to pre-Covid volumes in 2024, after which it remains constant at 47.4 Mt per year. Total anticipated mandated volumes for advanced biofuels and e-kerosene are 1 Mt in 2025, 3.5 Mt in 2030 and 30 Mt in 2050.

The majority of the announced plants until 2027 make use of waste oils and fats as feedstock, for which there is a tight European market and a reliance on the HVO/HEFA route until 2030. The implication of a substantial increase in imports carries both sustainability risks and heavy dependency on non-European countries in reaching short-term mandated volumes, cautions the report. Demand-side stimulation for SAF in other regions, for example the United States, will also increase demand for biomass and SAF volumes. On the other hand, a rapid electrification of road transport may increase available biomass and production capacity for SAF.

While the 2030 targets set out by the proposed EU mandate are still feasible, believes SkyNRG, it is the post-2030 targets that present a challenge, given the quadrupling of mandated volumes between 2030 and 2040 (see Figure 2 below). To assess the viability of meeting them, SkyNRG compared and built upon the analysis carried out by the Energy Transition Coalition under the World Economic Forum’s Clean Skies for Tomorrow initiative to develop a projection aligned with its own assumptions on a realistic growth scenario, rather than maximised EU production potential.

Due to constraints in the availability of renewable power for power-to-liquid (PtL) aviation fuels and restrictions on SAF obtainable from waste oils and fats, the major share of bio-advanced SAF will have to come from cellulosic waste and residue streams in the long run, using pathways such as gasification combined with Fischer-Tropsch (FT) and alcohol-to-jet (AtJ), says the SkyNRG report. It considers it unlikely that a large share of the EU renewable power supply would be allocated to e-kerosene production, with modelling elsewhere showing PtL SAF production consuming around 10% of the expected EU total by 2050. It acknowledges other studies foresee a more dominant role for PtL aviation fuels.

Although the ReFuelEU targets are ambitious, they are achievable “with the right set of enablers in place,” concludes the report, which include:

• Increased support for new conversion pathways to convert sustainable feedstocks beyond just waste oils and fats, such as AtJ, FT or PtL;
• Large-scale mobilisation of cellulosic feedstocks through new supply chains;
• Rapid renewable electricity deployment to produce PtL aviation fuels in a sustainable way;
• A solid, science-based sustainability framework to drive the transition; and
• Corporate climate commitments as important streams of revenue to bring new SAF capacity online.

SkyNRG says the analysis was conducted to inform its business strategy but the company was sharing the insights to enable other organisations to learn and potentially direct resources into growing the SAF industry, and intends updating the report every six months.

“We would like to invite all stakeholders, inside and outside the SAF supply chain, to provide us with your viewpoint and explore how to join forces to scale the SAF industry and decarbonise aviation,” commented the company.

The European Commission has opened an eight-week public feedback consultation on the ReFuelEU Aviation legislative proposals, which runs until 14 September 2021.

Top photo: SkyNRG

Released as part of the European Commission’s ‘Fit for 55’ climate package, the long-anticipated ReFuelEU Aviation proposal confirms imposing a mandate on fuel suppliers to include sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) in aviation fuel supplied at EU airports. The obligation would commence from 2025 at 2% SAF, gradually increasing to 63% in 2050. The proposal also includes a sub-obligation of 0.7% for e-kerosene from 2030. To avoid fuel tankering, an obligation is also placed on aircraft operators to uplift fuel from EU airports. EU airports are further required to supply the necessary infrastructure for storage and blending of SAF to allow fuel suppliers and airlines to meet their obligations. While the proposal has found general support amongst stakeholders, reports Susan van Dyk, IATA and the World Economic Forum’s Clean Skies to Tomorrow (CST) coalition argue a mandate, while positive, will not be sufficient to support SAF development and that production incentives should also be introduced.

The proposed regulation aims to create a level playing field through EU-wide harmonised rules for SAF and avoid disparate national regulations. Its main elements are directed at three different sets of stakeholders: aviation fuel suppliers, airlines and airports.

The central component of the Regulation is a mandate on fuel suppliers to blend a minimum volume percentage of SAF in the aviation fuel supply, with a separate minimum for e-kerosene (the aviation category of e-fuels) from 2030:

• 2% from 2025;
• 5% from 2030, with a minimum of 0.7% e-kerosene;
• 20% from 2035, with a minimum of 5% e-kerosene;
• 32% from 2040, with a minimum of 8% e-kerosene;
• 38% by 2045; with a minimum of 11% e-kerosene; and
• 63% by 2050, with a minimum of 28% e-kerosene.

Two aspects of the mandate are notable. Firstly, the obligation is placed on the fuel suppliers rather than the airlines and, consequently, all flights departing from EU airports will be covered. Secondly, the mandate is based on volume rather than the potential carbon intensity reduction of the SAF.

According to the proposal, e-fuels have the highest potential for decarbonisation of all fuel technologies considered under this initiative and therefore a dedicated sub-obligation is provided to push e-fuel introduction into the market. As explained in the proposal, the emergence of e-fuels on the market in sizeable volumes by 2030 is unlikely in the absence of dedicated policy support due to their high cost. The dedicated sub-mandate is expected to partly de-risk investments in e-fuels and promote scale-up of production capacity.

In addition to the obligation on fuel suppliers, a ‘refuelling obligation’ is placed on airlines, providing that “the yearly quantity of aviation fuel uplifted by a given aircraft operator at a given Union airport shall be at least 90% of the yearly aviation fuel required.” This is designed to address fuel tankering practices, where aircraft operators uplift more aviation fuel than necessary at a given airport with the aim to avoid refuelling partially or fully at a destination airport where aviation fuel is more expensive. This practice can lead to increased emissions (carbon leakage) due to higher fuel burn and undermines fair competition in the market. As the inclusion of SAF is expected to increase aviation fuel costs, the proposal anticipates fuel tankering may increase. Therefore, the regulation requires that the amount of fuel uplifted by an aircraft should be commensurate with the amount of fuel necessary to operate the flights departing from that airport. Monitoring of this provision will be carried out through reporting obligations on airlines.

Finally, a requirement is placed on EU airports to provide the infrastructure for the delivery, storage and uplifting of SAF according to the obligation.

The proposal envisages fuel suppliers, airports and aircraft operators may not have the technology and logistical infrastructure available to meet mandating requirements at every airport. Therefore the regulation would provide for flexibility in this regard within the first five years of its application. Up to 2030, fuel suppliers would not be required to distribute mandated SAF blends at every airport but can meet their obligation by supplying a higher share of SAF at certain airports, provided that the fuel supplier complies with the mandate based on their average annual fuel supplied. From 2030-2035, fuel suppliers must supply at least a 2% blend of SAF at every airport.

The proposed regulation does not include provision for a book-and-claim system, although it is not excluded as a future possibility, provided that it be governed by robust rules ensuring the environmental integrity of the system.

Eligible SAFs under the regulation are advanced biofuels and e-fuels, and feed and food crop-based biofuels are not included. However, SAF produced from waste lipids will be eligible in order to launch the market and allow for emission reductions in the short term. Sustainability criteria established in the Renewable Energy Directive (RED II) will be used to determine eligibility of SAFs.

The remainder of the proposal deals with reporting obligations and penalties for non-compliance with the regulation.

It would only apply to commercial flights in civil aviation, and exclude military aircraft and aircraft engaged in operations for humanitarian, search, rescue and disaster relief of medical purposes, as well as customs, police and fire-fighting operations. Further parties excluded would be aircraft operators and airports that operate below a minimum threshold. A threshold of yearly passenger air traffic and freight traffic would be defined, and airports below this threshold would be outside the scope. Similarly, aircraft operators with a very low number of departures from airports in the EU would also be exempt below a certain threshold. The overall aim is that at least 95% of total traffic departing from airports in the EU would be covered.

Reaction

The ReFuelEU proposal has received general support from industry representatives. However, IATA said although the mandate may contribute to making SAF more affordable and widely available in Europe, this would only be the case under certain conditions and says the mandate should be accompanied by policy measures to ensure a competitive market and appropriate production incentives. It also recommends the mandate is targeted at locations which have substantial airline operations and close proximity to SAF refineries.

IATA warned, however: “The mandated use of SAF must not allow energy companies to engage in uncompetitive practices with the resulting high costs being borne by airlines and passengers.”

Airports body ACI Europe said it was a long-time supporter of an EU-wide blending mandate that required fuel suppliers to include SAF into the overall aircraft fuel supply, pointing out the measure was included in the European aviation sector’s Destination 2050 decarbonisation roadmap launched in February. The association emphasised Europe’s airports did not usually own or operate fuel infrastructure but allowed fuel suppliers to develop and operate such infrastructure on their premises, which was fully compatible with the use of SAF.

“The ReFuelEU Aviation initiative lays the foundation for a strong partnership between policymakers and industry to deliver SAF as a key enabler of the European Green Deal objective to reduce transport-related emissions,” commented Athar Husain Khan, Secretary-General of the European Business Aviation Association (EBAA) in a joint statement with the General Aviation Manufacturers Association.

On the eve of the release of the Commission’s proposal, the World Economic Forum’s Clean Skies for Tomorrow (CST) coalition published a report that seeks to address key consideration regarding the feasibility of a SAF blending mandate. Signatories to the report, Guidelines for a Sustainable Aviation Fuel Blending Mandate in Europe, include Airbus, Boeing, bp, Copenhagen Airport, Deutsche Post DHL Group, Groupe ADP, Heathrow Airport, International Airlines Group, KLM, Kuehne+Nagel, LanzaJet, LanzaTech, Neste, Norsk e-Fuel, Rolls-Royce, Royal Dutch Shell, Royal Schiphol Group, SkyNRG, Sunfire, Total Energies and Velocys.

While CST says the introduction of the mandate is essential to the deployment of SAF, it is considered insufficient to unlock investments in the SAF supply chain. The CST report states that reaching the desired levels of SAF production in Europe will also require significant public financial support to de-risk private investments in the SAF supply chain and to bridge the cost differential between SAF and conventional jet fuel for off-takers.

In parallel, CST also believes airlines will need financial support mechanisms to bridge the cost differential between SAF and conventional jet fuel and to mitigate the risks of competitive distortion and fuel tankering that could be caused by the mandate. CST supports a volumetric mandate as it would provide greater certainty than a GHG intensity reduction target but believes the volumetric mandate should be combined with minimum threshold requirements for GHG reductions based on life cycle assessments that should be gradually increased over time.

Although the proposed regulation provides for a sub-target for e-kerosene, CST indicates sub-targets should also be implemented for other novel technology pathways at low technology readiness levels. In addition, CST calls for aviation to be given priority access to sustainable biomass due to the lack of cost-effective alternative decarbonisation options. Appropriate policies should also be in place to drive higher production/collection of sustainable biomass, in particular wastes and residues, to meet growing demand and prevent any feedstock availability issues.

While supporting the overall proposal, Andrew Murphy from campaign group Transport and Environment said the sub-target for e-kerosene “should be set even higher to really drive down emissions from flying.”

Photo: Neste and Air BP

Susan van Dyk

GreenAir Correspondent

www.svdconsulting.ca

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The recent virtual symposium hosted in the US by CAAFI, the Commercial Aviation Alternative Fuels Initiative, illustrated the increasing momentum in sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) commercial development, with companies at different stages of development outlining ambitious plans for multiple facilities over the coming years. Many facilities are already under construction or nearing completion, and the increased availability of SAF is expected to become a reality over the next few years. Significantly, many producers are pursuing net zero SAF from initial construction by integrating technologies such as renewable energy, green hydrogen and carbon capture and storage into their fuel production strategy, reports Susan van Dyk. By incorporating net zero targets as part of the initial engineering design of a facility, any SAF pathway can potentially be net zero if the right policies are in place to incentivise the greatest emission reductions.

Gevo’s first fully net zero project is planned for its Lake Preston, South Dakota, facility and across its entire feedstock supply chain, CEO Pat Gruber told the symposium. Onsite electricity used in the facility will be derived from biogas, offsite electricity from wind turbines and renewable hydrogen. As Gevo uses corn for the production of isobutanol, the feedstock supply chain is addressed explicitly through better agricultural practices and land management, improved tillage practices and sustainable fertiliser. Gevo works closely with farmers and plans to reward them according to the sustainability of their corn, according to Gruber. Adds the company: “Gevo designs our entire business with carbon value in mind from the beginning, and carbon value has an impact on everything we do. By focusing on carbon value, Gevo is set up to maximise the value of renewable energy sources. When we aim towards that goal, everything we do in developing our plans, building our facilities, working with airlines, fuel companies, farmers and other partners, becomes focused on sustainability.”

Other companies pursuing a holistic approach to net zero SAF are Velocys, Aemetis, Red Rock Biofuels, and SkyNRG Americas. The Velocys Bayou Fuels project, according to Jeff McDaniel, VP New Projects, can achieve a negative -144 gCO2/MJ carbon intensity based on the production of the facility’s electricity with solar power and further use of carbon capture and sequestration for emissions from the facility, to achieve a significant reduction in carbon intensity.

Eric McAfee, CEO of Aemetis, told the CAAFI symposium the company’s strategy for net-zero includes renewable natural gas, cellulosic hydrogen, and carbon capture and storage. The proposed facility of SkyNRG Americas aims for maximum emission reductions by producing hydrogen from electrolysis, stated CEO John Plaza, while Red Rock Biofuels is implementing engineering changes to its Lakeview facility to lower the carbon intensity of the fuels. According to CEO Terry Kulesa, the Lakeview facility will use solar power for electricity and undertake carbon capture of any emissions.

The ability of SAF to reduce emissions, reflected in the carbon intensity (CI) of the specific fuel, is a central characteristic of its environmental benefits and sustainability, and based on a life cycle assessment across the entire supply chain of the fuel production process. Under CORSIA, eligible fuels are given default CI values, termed life cycle emission factors (LSf), based on the type of technology and feedstock used, although CORSIA provides a methodology to determine the unique LSf of a SAF pathway. The default LSf under CORSIA for isobutanol-to-jet based on a corn feedstock (similar to the Gevo pathway), is 77 gCO2eq/MJ compared to conventional jet fuel of 89 gCO2eq/MJ. However, the actual calculated value for Gevo fuel is -5 gCO2/MJ, according to Gruber.  

If any type of SAF can deliver net zero, all technologies can potentially be used to meet net zero targets for the aviation sector to 2050. Proponents of synthetic e-fuels, such as Andrew Murphy from Transport and Environment, argue that power-to-liquid (PtL) fuels should be the main SAF technology in the long term as it is the only pathway that can achieve net zero. In contrast, Andreea Moyes, Global Aviation Sustainability Director at BP in a presentation at the CAAFI Symposium, argues “multiple SAF pathways are required, and all should be allowed to compete on their own merits within societal preference.” According to Moyes, the GHG profile of SAF, rather than the volume, should be the focus.

An important driver for aggressive targeting of maximum emissions reductions is placing a value on carbon. This type of policy is already in action in California’s Low Carbon Fuel Standard and has created a strong incentive for low carbon intensity fuels. The proposed Sustainable Skies Act, recently introduced in the US House of Representatives by Congressman Brad Schneider, creates exactly this type of policy in the aviation sector (see article). The Act proposes a blenders tax credit of $1.50 per gallon of SAF that provides a 50% reduction in emissions. SAF that provides greater emission reductions can earn an additional credit of $0.01 per gallon for each percentage the fuel reduces emissions over 50% up to a maximum of $2 per gallon for a 100% reduction, in order to incentivise greater reductions in emissions.

In contrast, the European ReFuelEU Aviation policy proposes a volumetric blending mandate which is not directly linked to emission reductions (see article). Although this will create a strong demand signal, it seems unlikely to drive aggressive carbon reductions of SAFs. Bryan Stonehouse, General Manager Aviation Sustainability & Risk at Shell Aviation, speaking at the recent IATA SAF Symposium, explained the role of policy for driving investment in SAF and contrasted the blenders tax credit with the ReFuelEU mandate. According to Stonehouse, the mandate is important for creating a demand but does not give the whole picture. The blenders tax credit will be the carrot for the industry, he said. According to Stonehouse, SAF is incredibly expensive and needs affordability support and argued the SAF industry needs aspects of both the ReFuelEU and the US blenders tax credit for development and scale-up.

While carbon intensity is only one component of sustainability, achieving net zero carbon intensities of SAF pathways should be a critical focus in the sector. Several US companies are engineering new facilities with a goal of achieving net-zero carbon intensity of fuels, and this seems to be driven by policies in the US that incentivise greater reductions. Designing and engineering a facility from the get-go to produce net zero fuels makes sense, and the right policies are crucial at this critical stage of investment and scale-up. While multiple policies are needed, rewarding carbon intensity reductions should play a central role in policymaking.

Photo courtesy of Alaska Airlines and Gevo

Susan van Dyk

GreenAir Correspondent

www.svdconsulting.ca

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Germany’s federal and state governments, with backing from industry, have agreed a roadmap that commits to the development of e-fuels – also described as power-to-liquids (PtL) – for the aviation sector. E-fuels can potentially deliver net zero emissions and are considered a critical technology for producing large volumes of sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) at scale with limited environmental impact. For aviation to achieve net zero emissions by 2050, the bulk of SAF will likely have to come from e-fuels. However, the technology is currently only at pilot scale and e-fuels are very expensive to produce, reports Susan van Dyk. Produced from carbon dioxide and hydrogen, e-fuels will also have to comply with strict sustainability criteria to be CO2 neutral, and these metrics will need to be clearly defined. The PtL roadmap sets out measures for commercialising the technology, as well as establishing sustainability criteria and binding targets to achieve a market ramp-up of e-fuels.

Commercial production of SAF is currently limited to the HEFA technology, based on hydrotreated fats and oils. Other SAF technologies, such as gasification-based SAF and alcohol-to-jet, are currently being scaled up, and commercial facilities are under construction. However, these technologies are based on land-based feedstocks or available in limited quantities, such as used cooking oil or municipal solid waste. E-fuels, on the other hand, are produced from air and water with unrestricted potential for fuel production at a large scale while having a minimal environmental impact and potential net-zero CO2 emissions.

Dr.-Ing Ulf Neuling, Renewable Fuels Group Leader at the Hamburg University of Technology and a joint author on several studies on e-fuel technologies, indicates there are still some technical challenges remaining for commercial production of e-fuels to take place, such as the syngas production required for e-fuel synthesis. Not all the different technologies involved within the overall e-fuel production process are at the same technology maturity level, he points out, and the integration of the entire process at an industrial scale must still be demonstrated. “So far, not a single drop of PtL kerosene is produced commercially,” stated a recent study co-authored by Neuling.

A significant challenge for commercialising e-fuel technology is the current high cost of production. One study investigating the techno-economics of e-fuels showed it is much greater than other types of SAF. E-fuels are very expensive and cannot currently compete with other SAF technologies, confirmed Neuling. However, based on the significant role e-fuels are expected to play in the future, their development and scale-up is critical. Hence the requirement for policies that specifically target the development of e-fuels, as demonstrated by the German PtL-Roadmap. The need for e-fuel specific policy is also acknowledged in the proposed ReFuelEU Aviation initiative, where a dedicated sub-mandate for e-fuels is being considered.

The price of the renewable electricity for hydrogen production is the most significant component of e-fuel production costs, and as these costs are expected to continue decreasing, e-fuels could reach cost parity with other SAF once it has been scaled up, stated Neuling. However, it is obvious technology development must take place now to reach the large volumes of SAF that will be required for the sector towards 2050. As e-fuels require renewable electricity, investment in the transformation of the electricity grid infrastructure is also a critical but long-term effort.

Policies for technology commercialisation require a supply-side push as well as a demand-side pull effect. The roadmap addresses these challenges, outlining supply-side measures for the development of e-fuel technology, both for individual components of the production system as well as their integration on an industrial scale. It recognises that demonstration and pilot plants are needed as trials have only been carried out under laboratory conditions. According to the roadmap, the role of the German Federal Transport Ministry is to establish a platform for the development, testing and demonstration of different power-to-liquid production processes, while at the same time, the Federal Environment Ministry will set up demonstration plants. The roadmap indicates a focus on establishing and building up crucial industrial expertise within Germany with the aim to become a technological leader in the production of e-fuels for aviation.

On the demand side, the roadmap supports the market ramp-up of the technology, with binding targets for the use and sale of e-kerosene as a binding minimum quota on aviation fuels sold in Germany. Targets will be combined with a purchase obligation to secure demand and investment certainty for market players despite the higher costs of the fuels. Aviation sector participants in the roadmap indicated their commitment to the market ramp-up of e-fuels with Peter Gerber, President of the German Aviation Association (BDL) and CEO at Brussels Airlines, stating: “We want to participate in the construction of industrial plants for the production of sustainable aviation fuels, for example in the form of purchase guarantees.”

Critical considerations for airlines are the provision of sustainable e-fuels in sufficient quantities and at competitive prices and a regulatory system that is competition-neutral, they say. Environment Minister Svenja Schulze said a gradually increasing statutory sub-quota for PtL kerosene planned by the federal government would significantly boost its production from 2026 onwards while creating the necessary investment security.

The goal of the roadmap is to create the basis for producing at least 200,000 tons of sustainable e-kerosene annually by 2030 for the German aviation sector.

The goal of the roadmap is to create the basis for producing at least 200,000 tons of sustainable e-kerosene annually by 2030 for the German aviation sector. This corresponds to a third of the current fuel requirements for domestic German air traffic. Andrew Murphy, Aviation Director at Transport and Environment (T&E), considers this a realistic and achievable target and believes the German government and business have shown the ability to cooperate towards achieving this goal. Federal Economics Minister Peter Altmaier has indicated support for the market ramp-up through various funding programmes and the design of the regulatory framework to contribute to the development of hydrogen technologies and global climate protection.

The potential of e-fuels to have net-zero CO2 emissions is the central rationale for their production. The prospective emission reductions of fuels must be calculated based on a life-cycle assessment of the entire production pathway. This process has two critical sustainability metrics, the source of the carbon dioxide and the source of electricity used for electrolysis to produce hydrogen, said Keith Whiriskey, Deputy Director of the Bellona Foundation and co-author of ‘The Power to Liquids Trap’ report published in 2017. According to Whiriskey, people often ignore the source of electricity or carbon dioxide. “There is a lot of hype around e-fuels. It’s like alchemy, and very attractive to say you can turn air into fuels,” he said.

E-fuels can only achieve net zero emissions if the CO2 is derived through direct air capture (DAC), and the electricity used is 100% renewable and additional, maintains T&E. Germany currently still derives about 40% of its electricity from fossil sources such as hard coal, lignite and natural gas (source: CLEW). This leads Whiriskey to argue the German grid is not suitable for the deployment of e-fuel technology today as it needs 100% renewable electricity to achieve the full climate benefits. Making e-fuels with electricity derived from coal and natural gas will increase emissions rather than reduce them, he asserts.

A recent study co-authored by Dr Neuling concluded there was not enough renewable electricity in Germany to produce sufficient e-fuels for domestic aviation demand. This challenge is recognised by Hessian State Minister Tarek Al-Wazir, who said the roadmap underlines how central the massive expansion of electricity generation from renewable energy sources inside and outside Europe will be for achieving the Paris climate protection goals. E-fuel technology development will have to go hand in hand with the transformation of the electricity grid.

Whiriskey contends German companies can potentially develop and use PtL technologies in other countries with abundant renewable electricity and then import the e-fuel into the country. Neuling echoes this approach that e-fuels would have to be imported to supply sufficient SAF. However, a cynical Whiriskey added: “German companies want to do this in Germany and get the subsidies, so they have to greenwash the electricity.”

The production of e-fuels outside of Germany is anticipated to some extent by the roadmap. “As the next step, we need an energy and climate partnership with Africa. Africa has the sun, hydropower for production and many young, motivated people,” said Development Minister Gerd Müller. He indicated that through German development cooperation, a reference plant for green hydrogen and synthetic fuels was being built in Morocco.

Using this approach, in January Lufthansa announced investment in a green hydrogen facility in Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates, which has abundant renewable potential. Annette Mann, Head of the newly established unit of Corporate Responsibility at Lufthansa Group, is spearheading the Group’s participation in this pioneering project. A memorandum of understanding has been signed by the partners involved, which as well as Lufthansa Group include the Abu Dhabi Department of Energy, Siemens Energy Global, Masdar and Marubeni Corporation, Khalifa University and Etihad Airways.

Apart from the necessity for renewable electricity, the other critical sustainability factor is carbon dioxide origin, either from point source capture or direct air capture. Point sources can be from an industrial source, such as a cement factory (termed unavoidable emissions), or from a biogenic source, such as bioenergy plants. Point source emissions from powerplants based on fossil fuels are considered avoidable and unacceptable, and CO2 capture could support the continued use of fossil fuels. E-fuel production costs will vary depending on the source of carbon dioxide, with direct air capture being more expensive than point source capture. Therefore a company using a point source for CO2 could produce e-fuels at a reduced cost.

However, capturing the CO2 from an industrial smokestack cannot achieve overall net zero emissions of the e-fuel produced from this source. Where CO2 is captured from a smokestack, the carbon accounting becomes critical  as “there is a toss-up here about who will claim the decarbonisation,” said Whiriskey. The point source industrial facility and the e-fuel producer cannot both claim the same climate benefits as that would amount to double counting.

Don O’Connor of S&T Squared Consultants and an LCA expert, explained he had run into this problem when carrying out LCA studies for companies. No one wants to take responsibility for the CO2 that is released to the atmosphere when the e-fuels are combusted, he said. If the CO2 was from direct air capture, then the CO2 from the combustion of the fuel would be balanced by the CO2 from the atmosphere, so from an LCA perspective, the net impact will be zero, he explained. CO2 emissions from a biogenic source are not currently counted, and therefore the CO2 emissions from e-fuel combustion do not have to be accounted for. But taking the CO2 from an existing emission source, added O’Connor, leads to the original emitter wanting to claim the reduction. In some cases, industrial facilities may be required under regulatory frameworks to reduce emissions. In that case, the e-fuel combustion emissions have to be included in the LCA for the e-fuel, making the carbon intensity of the e-fuel very unattractive. Overall, he concludes, there is a reduction in GHG emissions, but the reduction belongs to the original emitter and not to the e-fuel.

Whiriskey agrees that it is very common for fuel producers to claim that their e-fuel will reduce CO2 emission by 70-90% regardless of where the CO2 is sourced. For a low carbon (80% reduction) e-fuel to be made from industrial CO2, the e-fuel producer “must shout from the rooftop that no emissions reduction has taken place at the industrial site,” he said. “It should also be made clear that the overall process is not carbon neutral, nor can it be. This is fine when done transparently and one can track the allocation but otherwise the emissions reduction becomes double-counted or simply lost.”

The roadmap recognises the source of CO2 is critical for sustainability of the process. It envisages that initially the carbon for e-fuel production can be obtained from unavoidable sources of CO2 but in the future it should be extracted from the atmosphere using direct air capture.

The climate benefits of e-fuels will depend on clear sustainability metrics and a transparent accounting system to take into account situations that may undermine the overall climate impact of the e-fuel production process. The roadmap indicates an awareness of these challenges and that the regulatory framework implementing its goals should include rigorous sustainability criteria.

It establishes the all-important framework for the development of e-fuels for aviation, and its implementation could play an important role in commercialising e-fuels technology and setting up the conditions for a significant scale-up of production in the future, both in Germany and globally.

“Electricity-based fuels are the impetus for CO2-neutral air traffic,” commented Environment Minister Schulze on the release of the roadmap.

However, unless strict sustainability metrics and transparent accounting is in place, these climate benefits are in danger of not being realised.

Photo (credit ATF Pictures): A Lufthansa A350-900 at Munich Airport. From 1 June 2021, SAFs can be delivered, stored and refuelled at the airport, provided they meet the relevant quality specifications for Jet-A1 aviation fuel. The airport says it expects in the future to see airlines take on PtL blends via its tank farm.

Susan van Dyk

GreenAir Correspondent

www.svdconsulting.ca

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IATA has indicated it supports mandating the use of sustainable aviation fuels (SAF) on international flights departing EU airports, which the European Commission is expected to propose in its upcoming ReFuelEU Aviation legislation, but only with what it considers should be the “right framework” that includes initially restricting the mandate to intra-EU flights. The trade association, representing some 290 airlines worldwide, also wants a higher priority placed on achieving global agreement on longer-term environmental goals. Senior IATA executives Sebastian Mikosz, SVP Member and External Relations, and Michael Gill, Director Aviation Environment, explain to Mark Pilling the association’s position on SAF mandates, efforts with airline members and others to achieve industry consensus on climate targets, and advocating measures that push the industry towards real emission reductions.

Over the coming 18 months, the important legislative ReFuelEU Aviation initiative, the COP26 climate summit, this October’s IATA Annual General Meeting and the ICAO 2022 Assembly will likely shape aviation’s green agenda for the rest of this decade.

With ReFuelEU Aviation, the Commission is preparing legislation that will establish a policy foundation for increasing the production volume and use of SAF in European aviation to help the European Union meet its overall climate goals. The legislative proposal is expected to include mandates covering SAF usage, starting in 2025 at a low level and rising steadily up to 2050 and beyond as production ramps up. Online news service Euractiv reports a starting point of 2% in 2025, moving to 5% in 2030 and to 63% in 2050.

Speaking yesterday during the (Re)Fuelling Flight webinar hosted by NGO Transport & Environment, Filip Cornelis, Director of Aviation at the European Commission, said: “We agree that we need a ramp up that is both ambitious and realistic because of course there is no point undershooting what is possible, but we should not also overshoot and create an artificial shortage in the market that doesn’t help anybody. So, it is really a question of hitting the right targets to end in 2050 at a level of about 63% SAF in aviation in Europe.”

A ramp up with a low starting point, especially as current SAF production is so limited, is not too contentious, but whether the mandated percentages apply to all flights in and out of the EU, or just to intra-EU flights, is likely to be controversial. There are two schools of thought. In March, a coalition including European low-cost carriers easyJet, Ryanair, Wizz Air and Transport & Environment, wrote to the Commission, saying: “Excluding long-haul flights from the SAF mandate would mean the very area of our sector that most needs to decarbonise would not be covered at all by this legislation.”

IATA has a different view. “We believe ReFuelEU can be a useful policy instrument to promote the commercial deployment of SAF, but I qualify that with ‘if it’s accompanied by the right framework’,” Michael Gill told GreenAir. “It is the geographic scope that is an issue for us, and we believe that at least in its initial phase it should only be applicable to intra-EU flights.

“We are looking at a completely nascent industry and we believe that to jump to a significant portion [of SAF usage], there is more chance of achieving this successfully if this is limited geographically,” he said.

Moreover, IATA is worried that a move to include international flights could backfire. “We have seen in the past, with the experience of the EU Emissions Trading System, when Europe tried to adopt extra-territorial measures, that there was significant pushback from third countries and their airlines,” recalled Gill.

That move created considerable political tension and the threat of a trade war between Europe and other States, including Russia, India, China, and the United States. The ReFuelEU initiative, centred again on environmental regulation, is “very much the same dynamic,” said Gill. “The view of IATA members is that when you are in the initial phase it is unnecessary to give it too broad a scope.” The idea would be to start with intra-European flights and expand the scope later to include international ones.

Cornelis told the (Re)Fuelling Flight webinar: “The way we envisage this mandate is that the minimum blend to be prescribed would need to be one available at all EU airports and everybody who is uplifting jet fuel at a European airport would be uplifting the EU blend. This will be, in our view, the most simple and effective way to go forward, and also with the largest impact.”

If the EU goes ahead with its own standards and include international flights, the risk is other regions will follow suit and develop their own standards thus creating a patchwork of regional SAF solutions, warned IATA’s Mikosz. “This would benefit neither the industry nor the goal of reducing CO2 emissions at a global level,” he added.

IATA is setting its sights on a global prize. “It is more of a priority to get global agreement on a long-term environmental goal, and we are putting all our efforts into that,” said Gill. “We are supporting ICAO’s efforts to get a long-term aspirational goal for international aviation at the next Assembly in 2022. We would hate to see the EU SAF mandate muddy the waters.”

Many airlines have already set climate targets that commit them to net zero carbon emissions by 2050. This is a more ambitious target compared with IATA’s 2009 commitment, which obliges IATA members to cap aviation emissions at 2020 levels and to reducing them net 50% from 2005 levels by 2050. IATA estimates that a third of global traffic is now covered by carriers with net zero by 2050 goals, and there are calls, recognised by outgoing IATA Director General Alexandre de Juniac in March, to update the association’s commitment to this more ambitious level.

In a recent GreenAir Commentary article, ICCT’s Brandon Graver suggested IATA should consider making a net zero commitment at the COP26 meeting this November and adopt the net 50% reduction as a mid-term target. In addition, the association should push ICAO to secure a net zero goal from international aviation by 2050 at its Assembly in 2022. “By establishing bold targets for reducing aviation emissions and ensuring other airlines do their part, the new IATA Director General, Willie Walsh, can make a big impact in his new position,” he wrote.

Gill said the association and the Air Transport Action Group coalition of airlines, airports, aircraft manufacturers and others, are in discussions about a potentially more ambitious industry-wide target, which could be proposed at the IATA AGM due to take place in Boston in early October.

Getting IATA’s entire membership on board with more ambitious targets is a tough task, said Mikosz. He is only too aware of the extremely difficult balancing act the association performs to achieve a consensus position on topics as controversial as the environment. “There is a need to recognise we have different members on different continents. The biggest challenge is the need to bring everybody under one roof,” he said.

There are state-owned and privately-owned airlines, and members in countries such as China, where the overall target year for achieving net zero carbon emissions does not yet match the 2050 ambition of most developed countries. “It’s a UN type of job,” added Mikosz.

While there will be pressure from many quarters for the net zero emissions by 2050 goal, one possibility is a global aspirational target could be set at 2060 or 2065 with a recognition that some regions might go faster than this.

So, what does all this mean for SAF rules? The Commission will press ahead with ReFuelEU, which includes maritime as well as aviation, and produce a mandate for agreement by Member States. The draft ReFuelEU regulation was expected to be published in April, but this has slipped. It is now expected to be published in mid-July, said Cornelis. This means it could take until around May 2022 for it to become law. The UK has indicated it will put forward its own mandate proposal for enactment in 2025.

The likelihood of a global SAF mandate anytime soon appears very low. The ICAO Conference on Aviation and Alternative Fuels (CAAF) in 2017 endorsed a vision that a “significant proportion” of conventional fuel be substituted with SAF by 2050. It also agreed to convene another CAAF no later than 2025 to update the vision to include a quantified SAF target, but it is extremely unlikely to have a global agreement on a global SAF mandate, believes Gill. “There is no consensus in ICAO on what that target should be yet. IATA also does not have a position from our members on what a global SAF target under ICAO could be or indeed to change track and push ICAO for a global SAF mandate,” he added.

Talk of commitments, targets and mandates is all very well, and the political dance that is taking place to set them is in full swing. For IATA’s Gill, it is important not to lose sight of what is important. “We need to push the industry forwards to ambitious, real, emissions reduction,” he said.

“All [airline] CEOs say it is a real strategic issue,” said Mikosz. “At our last board meeting we had just two points on the agenda: industry restart and the environment. Nobody takes this lightly. We need to have a blend of technologies and a variety of business approaches. We are putting SAF as number one in that regard.”

IATA chief Willie Walsh told the recent World Aviation Festival: “There are a lot of initiatives out there, and critically people recognise that this has to be done. There is no argument here, the industry is up for this challenge.”

Photo: Brussels Airlines

Mark Pilling

GreenAir Contributing Editor

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Sustainable aviation fuels (SAF) are seen as the key driver in decarbonising the airline industry but although responsible for just a small proportion of total aviation emissions, the business aviation sector is keen to play an important role in advancing the global uptake of SAF to support carbon reduction goals. It recently brought together SAF producers, aircraft manufacturers, business jet operators and policymakers to discuss the next steps to increase uptake at its first-ever European Business Aviation SAF Summit, reports Susan van Dyk. The sector is keen for policy support to incentivise the SAF value chain and make the production, purchase and use of SAF more accessible and affordable, with provision for a robust book-and-claim system to ensure all business aviation operators have the opportunity to benefit from the emission reductions afforded by SAF. The much-anticipated upcoming release of the ReFuelEU Aviation legislative proposal will aim to establish a regulatory framework to stimulate SAF production and uptake, with a blending mandate likely to be a policy cornerstone. The virtual Summit was notable for the first details emerging of how the mandate could be implemented.

In an opening keynote, EU Transport Commissioner Adina-Ioana Vălean said the use of SAF was one of the key ways the aviation sector could contribute to climate targets and must account for an increasing share of the fuel mix over time to reach more than 60% by 2050.

“Unfortunately, production is still at a very early stage and remains close to 0.5% of total jet fuel use,” she said. “I’m confident, however, that our upcoming ReFuelEU Aviation initiative will take us to the next level. I hope it will significantly boost both production and uptake of SAF by establishing a long-term regulatory framework at the European level and avoid reliance on national initiatives.

“Blending seems the best way to increase SAF production over time. We are currently looking at possible designs, with the aim of adopting legislative proposals before the summer. Targets will be binding on the one hand but on the other they must be realistic, initially modest but becoming more ambitious beyond 2030.”

Vălean suggested synthetic fuels, which include e-fuels, would become one of the main routes to decarbonising aviation. Measures would be needed to develop the market, including targeted financial support, help with fuel certification and ensuring fair competition, she said. Discussions must also accelerate in global fora like ICAO and convince “our third country aviation partners” that SAF was the right choice to ensure the sector had a sustainable future, she told the virtual conference.

“The cost for clean fuels must be shared as fairly as possible. Airlines and aircraft operators will probably end up paying a little more for their fuel but the increase should be modest,” she said. “The challenge is huge but we know what we need to do and we need to start now as 2030 is just around the corner.”

Filip Cornelis, Director of Aviation at the European Commission, said he believed a blending mandate to be the best option to address the “chicken and egg problem and help the demand and supply curves to meet somewhere.” A blending mandate across the EU would boost demand for SAF and maintain and create a level playing field for airlines and operators, he added. In designing the regulation, Cornelis indicated the Commission “wanted to be ambitious and realistic at the same time.”

The mandate is likely be in the form of a percentage blend that can then be gradually increased over time, with reports suggesting it would start with a modest target of 2% in 2025 and increasing more rapidly in five-year stages up to 2050. The requirement would also likely fall on fuel suppliers rather than airlines and other aircraft operators, and apply to all departing flights regardless of destination.

“We want to have the maximum scope and probably not limit ourselves to internal flights, but all flights that depart from European airports,” said Cornelis. When questioned about the potential political implications of covering international flights, he suggested that by supplying the blend at every airport, all flights would automatically uplift SAF and so maintain a level playing field.

Cornelis reported the Commission expects to implement a simple enforcement instrument without a take-up obligation on individual airlines. If the blend is supplied everywhere, the uptake by individual airlines would not need to be verified. Airlines and operators will need access to data on the amount and type of SAF uptake so that they can receive credits under the EU ETS and CORSIA, he said.

Nicolas Kroll, Head of Sustainability Projects at Luxaviation Group, welcomed a simple regulation design, as business aviation is made up of small operators and a minimum additional administrative burden would be preferred. He also pointed out that claiming of credits for SAF purchases has not been clear and regulations that simplify this process will be welcomed.

Regarding the types of eligible fuels, Cornelis indicated the ReFuelEU regulations would probably rely on the general sustainability framework of the EU’s Renewable Energy Directive. By 2050, Cornelis predicted high volumes of SAF will still be required in spite of technologies such as hydrogen aircraft, probably at blends higher than 50%. Most of these will have to be e-fuels, said Cornelis, and indicated a sub-mandate for e-fuels was being considered as this technology had a significant price handicap compared to other technologies. Without a sub-mandate, e-fuels may not be able to enter the market in any significant way, whereas In the long-term, the bulk of SAF is expected to come from these fuels as they can provide very high emission reductions, he said.

Andrew Murphy, Aviation Director at Transport & Environment, welcomed the ReFuelEU initiative, stating “the sooner the regulations are there, the sooner we can begin to unlock the investment needed to bring these fuels up.” Murphy believes that e-fuels, also known as power-to-liquid, is the only technology that can be sufficiently scaled up to provide the large volumes of SAF required for decarbonisation without requiring land use.

Arvid Loken, Senior Advisor, Carbon Reduction Programme at airport operator Avinor, provided insight into the practical implementation of Norway’s 0.5% SAF mandate, which came into effect from January 2020. The mandate is applicable to domestic and international flights as the obligation is on the fuel supplier. Designed to be flexible and allow cooperation between fuel suppliers, the supplier can source the SAF at any location and provide the whole volume at one airport during any period of time, he said.

Business aviation members stressed the importance of including a book-and-claim system in the regulations, particularly as physical production and supply of SAF was still at an early stage. As John-Angus Smith, Managing Director EMEA region at Signature Aviation explained, it will allow customers “to purchase SAF where it is not available while the fuel is dispensed elsewhere.”

Production of SAF that is locally inserted into the fuel supply reduces logistics and increases sustainability, he said. Book-and-claim is a “virtual purchase and claim of sustainability” and the credit is taken at a different location by the buyer, he explained. “So it fills the local availability gap and will enable, in our view, the expansion of the market.”

This would be a “double win” for the sector, believes Smith, as the operator can lower its footprint but also help the overall sector meet its goals. “It is a physical reduction of emissions even though it is a virtual purchase and that is why it is such an important tool for us as an industry going forward,” he said.

MEP Jan-Christoph Oetjen, who is Vice-Chair of the Committee on Transport and Tourism, argued SAF was not only key in decarbonising aviation but could also reduce its non-CO2 climate impact effects. “Aviation decarbonisation is an important part of the Green Deal and the clear commitment from the business aviation sector is very important to achieve these goals,” he said.

To coincide with the Summit, a coalition of business aviation partners focused on increasing awareness and utilization of SAF within the sector released a commitment detailing its vision and proposed strategy for SAF uptake.

Photo: Signature Aviation

Susan van Dyk

GreenAir Correspondent
www.svdconsulting.ca

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Analysis by the International Council on Clean Transportation (ICCT) shows there are sufficient sources of sustainable feedstock to support the production of 3.4 million tonnes (Mt) of advanced sustainable aviation fuels (SAF) annually in the EU by 2030, around 5.5% of projected EU jet fuel demand. Waste oils is the most technically mature SAF pathway at present and could produce up to 2% of the share although this resource is highly constrained and largely consumed by the road sector. Moving beyond 2% of SAF deployment will require targeted support by the EU for more conversion pathways such as lignocellulosic biofuels and electrofuels, which come with more challenging economics and uncertain production timelines, says ICCT. Current volumes of SAF are below 0.1% of EU annual jet fuel consumption. The European aviation industry’s recent Destination 2050 roadmap estimates SAF deployment of 3 Mt in 2030, rising to 32 Mt – equal to 83% of total jet kerosene consumption – in 2050 if given strong political support.

Ahead of the forthcoming launch by the European Commission’s ReFuel EU Aviation policy initiative, the study by ICCT evaluates the resource base that could support SAF production in the EU from 2025 to 2035, focusing only on the potential volumes available from sustainably available feedstocks. It also takes into account sustainable harvesting limits, existing other uses of feedstock materials and SAF conversion yields.

Deploying SAF requires overcoming even greater economic and technological constraints than deploying alternative fuels to the road sector, cautions the study. The vast majority of biofuels up till now have come from first-generation, food-based production, although the EU is transitioning away from these fuels. By targeting the deployment of advanced SAFs from non-food feedstocks early on, the developing SAF industry can avoid the controversies around food-based biofuels, it argues, although there will be limiting factors around economic viability, feedstock supply and pace of technology advances.

Waste oils, including used cooking oil, animal fats and other fatty acids, offer the cheapest and easiest means for producing SAF with current technology. In 2018, hydrogenated esters and fatty acids (HEFA), which can be blended up to 50% by volume with petroleum-based kerosene, were the most common alternative drop-in jet fuels with about 360,000 tonnes of capacity in the EU. Their advantage is that infrastructure is already in place to support large production volumes and are likely to be the cheapest source of SAF in the near term. Production costs are around twice the cost of fossil-based jet fuel production, while other conversion processes may be as much as eight times higher.

Lignocellulosic feedstocks from agricultural and forestry residues and from municipal and industrial waste are more technically challenging to convert than waste oils due to their physical properties. However, these feedstocks are more abundant than waste fats and, when converted into SAF, generally have higher GHG savings than food-based SAF pathways. Feedstock conversion pathways include gasification with Fischer-Tropsch synthesis or by upgrading ethanol or isobutanol into drop-in fuel quality or alcohol-to-jet fuels. The delays in building compatible biorefineries have so far slowed down the commercialisation of lignocellulosic biofuel pathways.

ICCT estimates 76.5 Mt of feedstocks from agricultural residues, 5.1 Mt from forestry residues and 21.2 Mt of municipal and industrial waste will be available for biofuel production in 2030.

Cover crops, which are grown during the winter and harvested in the spring before sowing of principal crops, could also provide additional feedstock for SAF production, though their future contribution is uncertain. Cover cropping is relatively uncommon in Europe so in theory there is the possibility to expand the practice without substantial negative environmental or market impacts. Potential cover crops could include oilseeds such as rapeseed and carinata. ICCT estimates cover crops could provide an additional 7.15 Mt of lignocellulosic feedstocks for SAF production in 2030.

The study also looks at non-biological pathways for producing SAF such as electrofuels (e-fuels), also called power-to-liquid (PtL) fuels. This is a potentially low-carbon yet resource-intensive pathway involving splitting water into hydrogen and oxygen via electrolysis, with the hydrogen then synthesised in a reactor with carbon dioxide to produce liquid or gaseous hydrocarbons or alcohols. To ensure these fuels are both sustainable and low-carbon, renewable electricity used in SAF production should not be diverted from other uses.

The amount of PtL that could be theoretically available for SAF is very large, says the study, but the potential is unlikely to be met in the timeframe, given the high cost and time required to commercialise an emerging industry. For the most economical scenario, using grid-connected wind electricity and industrial CO2, it would require policy support of €2 per litre, which, according to the study, is very high compared to current alternative fuel subsidies and other forms of European policy support. However, at that incentive level and if SAF is a high political priority, then PtL aviation fuels could conceivably be provided in the 2030 timeframe in quantities estimated at 0.006 Mt in 2025 to 0.15 Mt by 2030 and 0.23 Mt by 2035.

Achieving higher production quantities would be possible, says ICCT, with greater policy support, such as a sub-mandate for e-fuels, and especially with more time for industry commercialisation and when the price of renewable electricity declines.

The final source of feedstocks examined by the study that could play a part in 2030 EU SAF production is industrial flue gases, which are captured, fermented and upgraded into SAF, a process developed by LanzaTech for steel mills. The process produces an ethanol intermediate which is then converted to a synthetic hydrocarbon. Assuming steel production remains near 2018 levels, the study estimates industrial flue gases would yield 3.3 Mt of ethanol for further upgrading to transport fuels, contributing an additional 0.76 Mt of alcohol-to-jet SAF in 2030.

Estimated 2030 SAF production and contribution to overall EU jet fuel demand by feedstock (source: ICCT)

ICCT’s central estimate of EU jet fuel demand, based on a 4.5% growth rate in conjunction with a 2.0% annual fuel efficiency improvement and without accounting for the Covid-19 pandemic, is 55.5 Mt in 2025, 62.8 Mt in 2030 and 71.1 Mt in 2035. Although there is a sufficient resource base to theoretically support peak production of 12.2 Mt of SAF a year, it says with deployment and feedstock constraints in place there is a maximum potential for 3.4 Mt, or 5.5% of 2030 jet fuel demand. Without any targeted support for more challenging pathways, the actual SAF potential could be closer to 1.9%, primarily drawn from easier-to-convert HEFA fuels.

“Expanding SAF beyond today’s production levels will require substantial financial incentives to overcome the economic and technical barriers that have thus far kept production low,” concludes the study. “Absent strong policy support and long-term commitments to advanced fuels, it will be difficult to do more than divert waste oils from other sectors. High blending targets in the absence of complementary policies may instead open the door to higher use of food-based biofuels in aviation.

“Even with strong policies in place, the limited availability of the best-performing feedstocks suggests that SAF production alone cannot achieve the EU aviation sector’s long-term GHG reduction obligations.”

Photo: Air BP

Eight European transport ministers have called for a harmonised, long-term strategy to decarbonising the air transport sector to include ramping up the production and supply of sustainable aviation fuels (SAF) through an EU-wide blending mandate. Hosting a high-level virtual conference, the Dutch Minister of Infrastructure and Water Management, Cora van Nieuwenhuizen, said there was a clear goal for aviation to achieve zero-carbon emissions, and the innovation of SAF, in particular synthetic kerosene, would play a crucial role. She said the Dutch ambition was fuel from departing flights would be made up of 14% SAF by 2030 and used the event to showcase a recent flight by KLM from Amsterdam that used 500 litres of synthetic jet fuel produced by Shell from CO2, water and renewable energy, an industry first. EU Transport Commissioner Adina Vălean said synthetic fuels, including hydrogen, would become one of the most important routes to the sector’s decarbonisation and the forthcoming launch of the RefuelEU Aviation initiative would establish a regulatory framework at the EU level that sent a strong policy signal to producers and investors.

European Executive Vice President Frans Timmermans, who has responsibility for the European Green Deal and Climate Action, said aviation presented a particular challenge due a huge increase in carbon emissions over the past decade, which needed to be tackled.

“Now with the pandemic, aviation has been particularly hard hit and a lot of public money has been put into keeping the sector alive,” he told the conference. “I think that was a good choice because the sector is going to be crucial in our recovery and the future structure of our economy – but it has to be a sector with a heavily reduced carbon footprint.

“We will need to look at what will be fuelling future aircraft and that is of extreme importance. I know the industry is on board with this and most of our own [EU] governments are too. With the election of Joe Biden in the US, the international environment is also quickly changing and there is no doubt in my mind they will be looking for a rapid reduction in carbon emissions as well. The traditional argument that we cannot touch aviation because it is an international sector becomes moot if we all start moving in the same direction.”

He called for European investment support of new technologies that would enable lower-cost production of sustainable fuels, including synthetic kerosene and clean hydrogen.

“What instruments do we have to influence this?” he said. “From my perspective, the EU ETS is the best system. It puts a price on carbon and allows us to generate revenue that can be used to be invested to create sustainable transport. Talking to my counterparts in America and China, forms of ETS are going to be cornerstones of their approach to decarbonising their economies as well. At the moment, it’s a piecemeal approach but if we do it at scale then we create a level playing field and then the risk of putting the European airline industry at a disadvantage diminishes.

“As well as carbon pricing and RefuelEU Aviation, we will have to look at how we integrate other transport systems into a sustainable solution. It is important to have a fundamental conversation about the future of this industry. It is not just about changing the energy used for air transportation but it’s also about the future role of the sector. Funding the recovery by putting the burden on our children and grandchildren will only work if we can show a better and more sustainable economy. There shouldn’t though be an antagonism between reaching climate neutrality and having a vibrant airline industry that responds to the transportation needs of our citizens and economy.”

The unprecedented Covid crisis had brought European air traffic back to 1995 levels, said Vălean, who expects recovery to fully return after five years and reach 14.4 million flights per year by 2035.

“However, it doesn’t make sense to go from catastrophic losses to an increased environmental impact. Along with an increase in flights, we have to see a decrease in emissions. It is not an easy task but neither is it an impossible one because we now have the technologies, we have a plan and for the first time, we have the commitment of the entire aviation industry to change. Ten years ago, even five years ago, it would have been impossible to sit all the actors at the same table and to see them sharing the same goals and vision as we are seeing today.”

She said sustainable fuels had a major role to play but the estimated share of SAF in the EU today was only around 0.05% of total jet fuel consumption.

“We need to scale up production capacity and make them widely available on the market,” she said. “This will require both cooperation and a sustainable policy framework, and, of course, an acceptable business case. In terms of cooperation, we plan to involve every interested party – airlines, producers, researchers, airports, public authorities, civil society and others – to establish a renewable and low-carbon value alliance. A chain is only as strong as its weakest link. We need to know with precision, which are our weakest links and create the right conditions to strengthen the entire chain.”

Vălean said a consequence of the RefuelEU Aviation initiative would be to attract major investment in European SAF production capacity that would lead to increasing uptake.

“We will also make sure our proposal maintains and guarantees a strong level playing field for industry in the EU,” she added. “The transition to sustainable fuels must be driven and endorsed collectively by the aviation industry community, and costs for clean fuels must be shared as fairly as possible.

“As aviation is global by nature, we will accelerate a discussion in global forums like ICAO and we must continue to convince our third country aviation partners that sustainable alternative fuels are the right choice to ensure that the growing aviation sector has a sustainable future.”

Andreas Scheuer, Germany’s transport minister, agreed measures needed to be coordinated at an international level and that the current crisis offered chances for the sustainable development of aviation. As air transport would continue to rely on liquid fuels for the foreseeable future, the use of SAF was key to contributing to environmental and climate protection in aviation, he said.

“From the different types of sustainable fuels, Germany is especially focusing on synthetic e-fuels produced from renewable electricity, CO2 and water, known as power-to-liquid (PtL) kerosene,” he said. “In our view, PtL has the highest potential to contribute the sustainable development of aviation and our climate goals.”

Despite the promise of PtL fuels, he conceded, there was no business case as yet due to high production costs, a lack of supply and demand, and current limitations of renewable electricity supplies. To support market development, he said Germany had set up a funding regime that would provide €1.5 billion ($1.8bn) over the next four years, with a special allocation for aviation PtL fuels. This would be complemented, subject to the recovery of the aviation sector from the crisis, by a national blending quota of 0.5% PtL starting from 2026, increasing up to 2% by 2030, based on sales of jet kerosene in Germany.

“However, market distortion has to be considered and addressed. We therefore advocate for a common European and international approach regarding regulatory measures and quotas,” he said. “In this context, we support RefuelEU Aviation to boost the supply and demand for SAF and PtL. This regulation, in our view, should include a separate requirement for PtL kerosene.”

He reported the government and industry stakeholders were currently developing a PtL roadmap for aviation, which would be published shortly in German and English.

French transport minister Jean-Baptiste Djebbari said in a keynote address that while synthetic fuels were currently expensive, the economics would improve through innovation and scalability. Sustainable aviation fuels are already available and would increase in the coming years, while hydrogen was expected in 2035, he added.

“We must develop all these technologies and keep in mind the timeframe is different for each of them,” he said. “We need to integrate all certified and available SAF pathways despite their current levels of production maturities. The use of SAF should be an obligation to airlines and increase with progressive phasing and harmonised at the EU level.”

To send a signal to the market, he suggested a European mandatory target of 5% SAF by 2030, with obligations that feedstocks are produced in the EU and came with high standards of sustainability. “We should avoid relying on imports of feedstocks from outside the EU. It’s a matter of improving our energy independence and also the externalities associated with the transport of non-local feedstock.

“In France, we have just published a national roadmap that sets a target of 1% incorporation by 2022, based on an incentive through a tax exemption on jet supplies. We are supporting innovative projects and launched a call for expressions of interest last year. Today, there are around 15 projects, bringing together aircraft companies, airlines, industrials and waste management specialists. The projects are at different stages, some in a pilot phase, some need further studies, but things are going well at the moment and we can see a very good momentum in France.”

Sweden’s Minister of Infrastructure, Tomas Eneroth, said blending mandates should be coordinated as a joint EU initiative but that it was up to individual Member States to decide the measures to use in order to reach a minimum share. It was also important that any EU legislation proposal should support ambitious States that were already moving ahead with SAF initiatives. Sweden, he said, was intending this summer to introduce an obligation based on GHG emission reductions.

“The purpose of opting for a reduction obligation is that compared with a blending obligation, it favours fuels with lower lifecycle emissions,” he said, adding that Sweden would welcome a revision of the EU energy taxation directive to allow for Member States to tax fossil jet fuel used in international aviation.

“In the short term, we are open to bilateral agreements on taxation. I also hope that there will be a broader discussion at ICAO on international regulation. It is of the utmost importance we continue discussions on work on sustainable aviation at the European level. It is time for the EU to take the next step and we are fully committed to making aviation more sustainable, resilient and future-proof.”

Timo Harakka, Minister of Transport for Finland, said the EU had to drive ambitious climate goals at a global level. “The next ICAO Assembly in 2022 will show whether the aviation community is ready for concrete measures. It will no doubt be challenging to agree on a common goal and necessary measures. However, there is no time to postpone the inevitable. Whether the measures are national, EU-wide or global, sustainable aviation fuels are at the very centre of them.

“I’m certain e-fuels will play a major role in decarbonising aviation. We’re not there yet but there are some promising initiatives in Europe, including in Finland. It is very important that as we move to maximum usage of e-fuels in the future, we also maximise the use of the current available measures. With swift and ambitious action, the aviation sector could make a real difference in achieving EU 2030 climate goals and we can drive the change in the global area.”

Latvia’s Minister for Transport, Tālis Linkaits, said there were numerous challenges ahead, including the SAF price gap, and especially for small and distant Member States like Latvia. He also advocated that airlines should not be burdened with SAF quota demands.

“Nevertheless, I would like to express support for the pioneering efforts in this field and with mutual cooperation, we can help each other to initiate the ramp up,” he said.

Eight EU States – France, Germany, Spain, Sweden, Denmark, Finland, Luxembourg and the Netherlands – issued a joint statement during the conference:

“We therefore support the aim of the European Commission to boost the supply and demand for SAF in the EU so as to create favourable conditions in order to ramp up the production and deployment of SAF, based on robust sustainability criteria. The potential of synthetic aviation fuels, in addition to advanced sustainable biofuels, is clear. The challenge is to make use of the current momentum by providing for a clear long-term perspective so as to contribute to a scalable SAF marketplace. A European blending mandate can achieve this.

“So we call upon the European Commission to further stimulate and incentivise the uptake of SAF, including synthetic fuels, through funding programmes under the existing financial framework and we welcome the RefuelEU Aviation initiative as a starting point for further EU coordination so as to ensure an integral and effective long-term agenda on sustainable aviation.”

The 500 litres of synthetic kerosene showcased during the conference was produced by Shell at its research centre in Amsterdam from CO2, water and renewable energy from local sun and wind sources. It was used on a KLM flight between Amsterdam and Madrid.

“This promising innovation will be of great importance in the coming decades to reduce CO2 emissions from aviation,” commented Cora van Nieuwenhuizen. “It is great that in the Netherlands, we were the first to show that this is possible – a big compliment for all involved. I hope that in these turbulent times for aviation, this will inspire people in the sector to continue on this course.”

Photo: Synthetic fuel blend loaded onto KLM flight