We haven’t made as much progress as we wanted, or is needed, on decarbonising the aviation sector, IATA Director General Willie Walsh said in his end-of-year industry briefing to the media in Geneva. Blame was attached to governments and big oil producers for the slow investment in sustainable aviation fuel facilities, with anticipated SAF production in 2024 falling significantly short of IATA’s own expectations. Aircraft and engine manufacturers also came in for criticism over supply chain challenges that had resulted in a big shortfall of new, more fuel-efficient aircraft deliveries this year, with the result that the global fleet was on average older than ever, leading to environmental and economic consequences. However, the airline industry as a whole is on the road to a full recovery from the pandemic and global passenger numbers in 2025 are expected to pass the five billion mark for the first time, although the sector’s CO2 emissions may also reach an all-time high.

Commenting on efforts to decarbonise the airline sector at IATA’s annual Global Media Day, Walsh said: “We needed to build on the slow progress that we have seen so far, which we had expected to improve in 2024 but we’re not at the levels we had hoped to be and we need to see greater awareness on the part of governments around the world.

“This isn’t just to do with sustainable aviation fuels, it’s about the wider transition to a net zero global economy in 2050. We’re not asking for special treatment for the airline industry, we’re just looking for the same support other industries have received in their energy transition.

“We need governments to recognise that they have a huge role to play. This can’t happen by the efforts of the airline industry alone. It must involve every player to ensure we hit the critical net zero emissions target in 2050.”

Meanwhile, the global airline industry itself is enjoying a return to the good times after Covid-19, with profitability likely strengthened still further in 2025 despite ongoing aircraft and engine supply chain challenges. Net profits are expected to be $36.6 billion in 2025 on revenues that will exceed $1 trillion for the first time – an increase of 4.4% from 2024 – and a net profit margin of 3.6%.

“This will be hard-earned as airlines take advantage of lower oil prices while keeping load factors above 83%, tightly controlling costs, investing in decarbonisation and managing the return to more normal growth levels following the extraordinary pandemic recovery,” said Walsh. “All these efforts will help to mitigate several drags on profitability that are outside of airlines’ control, namely persistent supply chain challenges, infrastructure deficiencies, onerous regulation and a rising tax burden.”

Passenger numbers are expected to reach 5.2 billion in 2025, a 6.7% rise compared to 2024 and the first time that this number will have exceeded the five billion mark.

Passenger demand (RPKs) is expected to grow by 8.0% in 2025, which is ahead of a 7.1% expected expansion of capacity (ATKs). Aircraft departures are forecast to reach 40 million, an increase of 4.6% from 2024, and the average passenger load factor is anticipated at 83.4%, up 0.4 percentage points from 2024.

IATA says its public opinion polling showed 41% of surveyed travellers said they expect to travel more in the next 12 months compared to the last 12 months, 53% expected to travel at the same frequency and just 5% said they expect to travel less.

Cargo volumes are expected to reach 72.5 million tonnes, a 5.8% increase from 2024.

A less welcome increase is in the average age of the global aircraft fleet as this has a negative impact on fuel efficiency, and therefore emissions intensity, as older aircraft are retained longer. According to Marie Owens Thomsen, IATA’s Chief Economist and SVP Sustainability, the long-term average age of the global fleet over the period since 1990 had been 13.6 years, whereas in 2024 the average age had reached 14.8 years, a record.

This is seen largely as a consequence of the supply chain issues, with new aircraft deliveries falling sharply from the peak of 1,813 aircraft in 2018. The estimate for 2024 deliveries is 1,254 aircraft, a 30% shortfall on what was predicted going into the year. In 2025, deliveries are forecast to rise to 1,802, well below earlier expectations for 2,293 deliveries. IATA foresees further downward revisions in 2025 “as quite possible”. The backlog for new aircraft has reached 17,000 planes, it says, which would take 14 years to fulfil at present delivery rates, although this should shorten over time.

“Supply chain issues are frustrating every airline with a triple whammy on revenues, costs and environmental performance,” said Walsh. “Load factors are at record highs and there is no doubt that if we had more aircraft they could be profitably deployed, so our revenues are being compromised. Meanwhile the ageing fleet that airlines are using has higher maintenance costs, burns more fuel and takes more capital to keep it flying.”

IATA says fuel efficiency, excluding the impact of load factors, was unchanged between 2023 and 2024 at 0.23 litres/100 ATKs, against a long-term trend (1990-2019) of annual fuel efficiency improvements in the range of 1.5 to 2.0%. If load factors were taken into account, fuel efficiency showed a marginal year-on-year improvement, from 4.3 litres/100 RPKs in 2023 to 4.2 litres/100 RPKs in 2024.

“The entire aviation sector is united in its commitment to achieving net zero carbon emissions by 2050. But when it comes to the practicality of actually getting there, airlines are left bearing the biggest burden. The supply chain issues are a case in point,” said Walsh. “Manufacturers are letting down their airline customers and that is having a direct impact of slowing down airlines’ efforts to limit their carbon emissions. If the aircraft and engine manufacturers could sort out their issues and keep their promises, we’d have a more fuel-efficient fleet in the air.

“We’ve been patient so far but that patience is running out and the situation is unacceptable. We are dealing with quasi monopoly suppliers who are abusing their position and this is an issue we need to look at.”

He added the performance of aircraft engines had also been “nowhere near where they should be.”

Against a backdrop of falling jet fuel prices, airlines’ cumulative fuel spend is expected to be $248 billion in 2025, a decline of 4.8% despite a 6% rise in the amount of fuel expected to be consumed – 107 billion gallons. Fuel is forecast to account for 26.4% of operating costs in 2025, down from 28.9% in 2024.

IATA’s expected 2025 jet fuel consumption of 107 billion gallons translates into around 324 million tonnes, so global CO2 emissions from the airline sector are likely to pass the one billion tonne mark in 2025 for the first time.

The cost of purchasing carbon credits to comply with ICAO’s CORSIA offsetting scheme, which started coming through in 2024, is estimated by IATA at $700 million, and forecast to rise to $1 billion in 2025. The costs for the limited quantities of sustainable aviation fuel available are estimated to add $3.8 billion to industry fuel costs in 2025, up from $1.7 billion in 2024.

On SAF, Walsh doesn’t foresee a linear growth in use although expects exponential growth beyond 2035.

“But we need to get building SAF production facilities today,” he said. “We can use existing refineries for co-processing, where blending is currently limited to 5% but has the potential to increase to 30%. This would have a major impact on capital expenditure requirements and could be achieved reasonably quickly.

“Where we have not seen as much progress as we would have liked is investment in new biorefineries. We need to call out those big fuel producers who have pulled back from their commitments to produce sustainable fuels – they need to play their part, we can’t just rely on new entrants.”

There is evidence, he said, that where jet fuel suppliers had been mandated to include SAF but had not done so and fined as a consequence, they had passed on the cost to airlines. “They don’t care if they get fined and this is a clear case where mandates make no sense whatsoever. There is zero environmental benefit. Politicians aren’t asking themselves if these measures are going to lead to the intended results. It’s disappointing and there needs to be more honesty in this debate.”

According to analysis by IATA, SAF production volumes in 2024 reached 1 million tonnes (1.3 billion litres), double the 0.5 million tonnes produced in 2023, and accounted for 0.3% of global jet fuel production and 11% of global renewable fuel. It says this is “significantly” below its previous projection for 2024 of 1.5 million tonnes, which it partially attributes to key SAF producers in the US pushing back their ramp up to the first half of 2025.

SAF production in 2025 is expected by IATA to reach 2.1 million tonnes, or 0.7% of total jet fuel production.

“SAF volumes are increasing, but disappointingly slowly,” commented Walsh.

Editor’s note: The second part of this report from IATA’s end-of-year industry analysis, which will focus on SAF, will follow next month.

Photo: IATA’s Marie Owens Thomsen and Willie Walsh

Christopher Surgenor

Editor

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With the EU about to activate its sustainable aviation fuel blending mandate, the European Union Aviation Safety Agency (EASA) has released an assessment of Europe’s preparedness to deliver required volumes of SAF up to 2030. The blending requirement will escalate from a minimum 2% of jet fuel composition by the end of 2025 to 70% in 2050 for supplies dispensed at airports across the EU’s 27 member states. EASA concludes that by 2030, when the blending mandate reaches 6%, there will be sufficient European production of SAF through multiple pathways to meet the requirements of the ReFuelEU Aviation regulation, which governs the mandate. But it warns rapid action is needed to ensure that a sub-target, initially 0.7%, is achieved for the use of increasingly important synthetic aviation fuels, or e-fuels.

The EASA report, titled ‘State of the EU SAF market in 2023’, examines the capacity of member states to produce the new fuels during the next five years, based on an assessment of the sector’s performance in 2023 and the addition of updated projections. The report, EASA’s first on this subject, also provides real or estimated reference prices for multiple types of current and future aviation fuels and outlines emerging trends in European SAF production.

“This first report on SAF provides a comprehensive analysis and valuable insights to the potential of sustainable aviation fuels for commercial airline operations in Europe,” commented Maria Rueda, EASA’s Strategy and Safety Management Director. “It will be a key component on the journey towards a more sustainable and environmentally friendly aviation sector.”  

EASA says the minimum SAF volume required by 2030 under the ReFuelEU Aviation (RFEUA) programme is around 2.8 million tonnes based on forecast jet fuel consumption of 46 million tonnes and a mandated blending level which, by then, will be at least 6%.

But it qualifies that the SAF production market is “inherently volatile”, impacted by factors including high capital expenditure, feedstock supply chain limitations and the risks to investors of supporting technologies in their early stages. “While many projects are announced,” adds EASA, “some may not reach commercialisation.”

The report presents three scenarios for SAF production in EU countries: Operating, Realistic and Optimistic.

The ‘Operating’ scenario covers only those facilities currently producing SAF, which are expected to deliver just over 1 million tonnes of product by 2030.

The ‘Realistic’ assumption estimates 3.2 million tonnes of SAF will be produced and distributed by facilities already operating, under construction or with small pilot plants either activated or being built. This includes co-processing of SAF in existing refineries.  

The ‘Optimistic’ case predicts 5.5 million tonnes, including pipeline production from projects which have announced elements including technology, feedstock, SAF capacity, commissioning year, location and technical partners, but are yet to be built.

“The Realistic case led to the exclusion of facilities which had not gone through final investment decision (FID) at the time of assessment,” says the report, singling out e-fuels as an example.

“There is a strong pipeline of synthetic aviation fuel projects in the EU, estimated at 1.1 million tonnes by 2030, but at the time of assessment none of these facilities had gone through FID. They were therefore not included in the realistic capacity estimation.”

The report says the hydrotreated esters and fatty acids (HEFA) process, which encompasses converted vegetable oils, waste oils, greases and fats, is the major SAF production pathway, supported by additional supplies through co-processing facilities.

It adds that immature technology for other SAF production pathways including Alcohol-to-Jet (AtJ) and Fischer-Tropsch (FT) prevented them from delivering commercial volumes of the fuel during the study reference year, 2023.

As well, says EASA, the AtJ process of converting alcohols into SAF disqualifies the fuel in the EU because the alcohols are fermented from food crops including corn and sugarcane. 

Additional pathways, including Sun-to-Liquid (StL) and Hydrothermal Liquidation (HtL), are also under development. “However,” says the report, “they remain immature, with only a couple of pilot plants announced, and their contribution to commercial SAF volumes is projected to be negligible by 2030.”

Synthetic aviation fuel is required to comprise at least 1.2% of jet fuel makeup by 2030, which EASA calculates to be a 600,000-tonne requirement. Also known as Power-to-Liquid, or PtL, this process combines water with renewable electricity to extract green hydrogen, which is then combined with captured CO2 to create SAF and other products such as renewable diesel.

“Within the EU,” says the EASA report, “more than 15 synthetic aviation fuel production facilities have been announced, primarily in countries with considerable renewable electricity capacity or infrastructure.”

However, it adds, the requirement for large volumes of renewable electricity, the costs of producing the power and limited sources of eligible carbon in many key locations drives up the costs of e-fuels.  

“The resulting production price is currently non-competitive with other forms of SAF production, particularly HEFA. Therefore, the development of synthetic aviation fuels is likely to be driven by the RFEUA sub-mandate that requires their supply.”

Of eight current or future aviation fuel categories, the report lists market prices or production cost estimates in 2023, reflecting vast premiums for non-fossil product. EASA used price reporting agency (PRA) references to provide benchmarks for price assessments or a basis for estimates.

“Whereas 2023 prices for conventional aviation fuels and aviation biofuels were available through multiple PRA indexes,” said EASA, “the market for other RFEUA aviation fuel types was either non-existent or not yet liquid enough to determine actual reference market prices for 2023. For these fuel types, a bottom-up production cost estimation was developed to provide indicative results.”

The report listed the average 2023 market price of conventional aviation fuel at €816 ($850) per tonne and aviation biofuels at €2,768 ($2,880) per tonne, the latter with an estimated production cost of €1,770 ($1,840) per tonne.

Because none of the other fuel categories had a market price in 2023, production cost estimates were produced by EASA.

Production costs for recycled carbon aviation fuels were estimated to average €2,125 per tonne, while advanced aviation biofuels averaged €2,675 per tonne, low carbon hydrogen for aviation averaged €4,700 per tonne, synthetic low carbon aviation fuels averaged €5,300 per tonne and renewable hydrogen for aviation averaged €6,925 per tonne.

But by far the largest estimates were those for synthetic aviation fuels, the average production cost of which EASA lists as €7,500 per tonne.

The same average estimate – €7,500 per tonne – also applied to synthetic fuel produced with CO2 captured at the industrial source of emission or that made from biogenic CO2.

The most expensive production cost estimated was for fuel produced with CO2 captured from the atmosphere, averaging €8,225 per tonne – more than 10 times the 2023 average market price of conventional jet fuel.

“To be able to meet the synthetic aviation fuel minimum shares, announced synthetic aviation fuel facilities would need to reach FID within the next couple of years,” says the EASA report.  

“On top of this, continuous scale-up in SAF capacity would be needed to comply with RFEUA by 2035, as the minimum SAF share required increases from 6% to 20% by that date.”

The report, developed with the support of consultancy ICF, is a precursor to a first EASA annual technical report due in 2025.

Photo: OMV

Tony Harrington

Correspondent

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The Jet Zero Council, a collaboration with industry set up by the previous UK government, has been relaunched as the Jet Zero Taskforce, with the aim of streamlining aviation decarbonisation priorities as the sector strives to reach its net zero emissions by 2050 target. The Taskforce will support the production and delivery of sustainable aviation fuels and zero emission flights, as well as look at how to improve aviation systems to make them more efficient. It will also explore the sector’s demand for GHG removals and the non-CO2 impacts of aviation. The UK’s SAF mandate, which takes effect from January 1, has now officially been signed into law, requiring 22% of all jet fuel to come from sustainable sources by 2040. The government has also started a public consultation on the implementation of ICAO’s global carbon offsetting scheme CORSIA, how it will be regulated in the UK and the penalties for non-compliance.

The restructured Jet Zero Taskforce will feature an annual CEO-level meeting chaired by the UK’s Transport Secretary that will set priorities for tackling aviation emissions and review progress. Members will include the Secretary of States for Business and Trade, and Energy Security and Net Zero, plus CEOs of major airlines such as easyJet, British Airways and Virgin, airports like Heathrow and Manchester, as well as senior representatives from fuel producers, trade bodies and universities.

Below the executive Plenary level will be a smaller Expert Group to support the Taskforce’s priorities, which will be jointly chaired by the Aviation Minister, currently Mike Kane, and Holly Boyd-Boland, VP of Corporate Development at Virgin Atlantic. “By pinpointing key barriers to decarbonisation and directing a select number of smaller action groups to tackle these challenges, this level will be crucial to the delivery of the Taskforce’s objectives,” explained the Department for Transport, which acts as the secretariat.

“Taking up the role of industry chair is a huge privilege and I look forward to working alongside government, with its renewed focus and leadership of the Jet Zero Taskforce,” said Boyd-Boland. “Together, we can harness the ambition across industry to achieve net zero 2050.”

Added Tim Alderslade, CEO of trade body Airlines UK: “Collaboration with government and across the whole sector and supply chain is vital to making the rapid progress we need, and we look forward to working with the new Taskforce to help usher in a new era of sustainable air travel, with all the jobs and investment that entails.”

The first plenary meeting of the Taskforce took place on December 4.

A main priority is to support the development, production, commercialisation and use of sustainable aviation fuels in the UK and also globally. The government will invest up to £450,000 ($570,000) to support aviation decarbonisation measures in other countries, such as helping developing states develop policy and access financing for SAF, as well as to offset carbon emissions from international flights. The announcement coincided with the visit to the UK of the ICAO Secretary General, Juan Carlos Salazar, and the signing of a memorandum of understanding covering all areas of UK-ICAO cooperation.

The UK SAF mandate, which applies from 1 January 2025, has now passed into law. Starting at 2% of total UK jet fuel demand, equal to around 230,000 tonnes, the use of SAF is intended to increase on a linear basis to 10% in 2030 and then to 22% in 2040, after when the obligation will remain at 22% “until there is greater certainty regarding SAF supply,” says the government. The supply of HEFA-derived fuels will be capped after the first two years of the mandate, which will become more stringent over time. A separate obligation (0.2% of jet fuel demand) on power-to-liquid fuels kicks in from 2028 that reaches 3.5% of total jet fuel demand in 2040.

The mandate also introduces tradeable certificates for the supply of SAF, with additional certificates awarded for fuels with higher GHG emissions savings, and a buy-out price mechanism will operate to allow suppliers to discharge their obligation. It is intended that the value of certificates will narrow the gap between the price of kerosene and the cost of SAF, thereby encouraging the production of SAF.

However, the government acknowledges that the mandate alone may not provide sufficient long-term certainty to maximise investment in SAF production in the UK. It has therefore committed through legislation to introducing a revenue certainty mechanism by the end of 2026 to provide investor confidence.

CORSIA implementation

The government has also opened a public consultation on its proposals for how the UK will implement and regulate ICAO’s global Carbon Offsetting and Reduction Scheme for International Aviation (CORSIA), which requires airlines to offset CO2 emissions on international routes above a given baseline (85% of 2019 emissions from international aviation). The consultation seeks feedback on proposed penalties for non-compliance.

It also includes proposals on how CORSIA can be implemented while maintaining commitments under the UK Emissions Trading Scheme (ETS), including how flights from the UK to Europe can be prevented from being subject to both schemes and measures “to ensure airlines are not unfairly burdened”.

Said the government: “This approach also aims to avoid unnecessary price increases for passengers, ensuring the UK’s decarbonisation efforts do not negatively impact those who rely on air travel.”

The UK is one of 129 countries now taking part in CORSIA and, with the mandatory phase starting in 2027, is offering support to other countries to help them participate in the scheme. The UK has already trained 11 other countries in Africa and other regions to apply the scheme.

“The UK is already at the forefront of global efforts to address climate change and carbon pricing schemes play a vital role in decarbonising aviation,” said Aviation Minister Mike Kane.

“The government is committed to supporting the aviation industry and with our Plan for Change at the heart, we’re helping the UK transition to a cleaner future in the most cost-effective way. We welcome all views on how airlines can continue participating in these crucial initiatives.”

The consultation has been welcomed by IATA. “We support the UK government’s plans to adopt and implement the scheme, and encourage countries to prepare for CORSIA implementation in full alignment with the ICAO CORSIA Standards and Recommended Practices, and to make the needed carbon credits available,” commented Marie Owens Thomsen, SVP Sustainability & Chief Economist.

The UK is implementing CORSIA in two parts, the first of which is the requirement to monitor, report and verify (MRV) CO2 emissions, and has already been incorporated into UK law. The second, on which the government is now consulting, concerns the requirement to offset CO2 emissions, including the applicability and calculation of offsetting requirements and cancellation of CORSIA credits, called Eligible Emissions Units (EEUs), and also the interaction between CORSIA and the UK ETS.

Penalties and enforcement for non-compliance with CORSIA’s MRV requirements are consistent with UK ETS legislation and the government proposes this approach is also followed for CORSIA’s offsetting requirements to ensure uniformity. Therefore applying a civil penalty of £100 ($130) for each CORSIA EEU that an aeroplane operator fails to cancel on time, as well as other non-compliance penalties.

The consultation will run until 10 February 2025.

Update 19 December: The Department for Transport has just released a 170-page technical guidance document and also a compliance document on the UK SAF Mandate.

Photo: Heathrow Airport

Christopher Surgenor

Editor

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As calls for action increase over the climate impacts of aircraft contrails, airborne research is intensifying with the expansion of two key projects in Europe and the US. In Germany, Lufthansa has started converting an Airbus A350-900 for use as a flying research laboratory as part of IAGOS-CARIBIC, a long-running European programme that uses commercial airliners to gather data on air quality for scientific evaluation. The A350 will be equipped with around 20 measuring instruments for a multi-year project beginning late next year to measure trace gases, aerosol and cloud parameters on selected long-haul flights. In the US, engine manufacturer GE Aerospace and NASA have just completed two flights with a Boeing 747 testbed aircraft to record three-dimensional imaging of contrails to better understand how they form and behave in certain conditions. The 747’s emissions were scanned using Light Detection and Ranging (LiDAR) technology installed on a following aircraft.

IAGOS (In-Service Aircraft for a Global Observing System) is a European programme established in 1994 to assess atmospheric composition, air quality and climate, using commercial jets as research platforms. There are currently 10 widebody Airbus A330 and A340 family jets from seven airlines deployed in the project, with another 10 having previously been used, again from seven participating airlines.  

The Lufthansa A350 selected for the IAGOS programme, registered D-AIXJ, is almost seven years old, and will add a new-generation airliner to the research fleet.

A measuring laboratory weighing two tonnes is being developed for the next phase of the programme, and once fitted with some 20 instruments, will be installed in the cargo hold of the A350 on selected scheduled flights from late 2025.

The onboard laboratory will be connected to the air intake system on the jet’s outer fuselage through permanently installed pipes, and used to measure over 100 trace gases, aerosol and cloud parameters from the ground up to the tropopause atmospheric region, at altitudes between nine and 13 kilometres.

The IAGOS programme is led by the Jülich Research Centre, one of Europe’s largest research organisations, which combines the expertise of global partners in weather services, airlines and the broader aviation sector.

The programme combines the complementary concepts of two research projects: MOZAIC (Measurement of Ozone, Water Vapour, Carbon Monoxide and Nitrous Oxides by Airbus In-Service Aircraft), which was funded by the European Commission between 1993 and 2004, and CARIBIC (Civil Aircraft for the Regular Investigation of the Atmosphere Based on an Instrument Container).  

Lufthansa, which with Air France was an IAGOS launch partner in 1994, has gathered climate-related data for research on more than 35,000 of its passenger flights over the three decades.

Together with the Jülich Research Centre and Karlsruhe Institute of Technology, the Lufthansa Group has fitted a total of six Airbus aircraft with measuring equipment since the programme was inaugurated to collect information about atmospheric conditions during scheduled flights.

Lufthansa currently has two aircraft, an A330 and an A340, deployed in the programme, as well as another A330 from sibling airline Eurowings Discover.

On December 9, the Eurowings jet was used to gather climate data during a 10-hour, 45-minute flight from Frankfurt to Orlando, Florida. The information was collected continuously while the aircraft flew at an altitude of more than 10,000 metres (33,000 feet) over a distance of 7,600 km.

Other airlines currently participating in the programme are Taipei-based China Airlines, with two A330s, and Air Canada, Air France, Cathay Pacific, Hawaiian and Iberia, each with one A330.

After each flight, climate information gathered by the aircraft is sent automatically to the database of Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique in Toulouse, France, from where it is accessible for global research.

The data is currently used by about 300 organisations worldwide to provide fresh insights into climate development and atmospheric composition and help refine climate models and improve weather forecasting.

“We are proud to have been able to make a significant contribution to climate research for 30 years,” said Lufthansa Group’s Chief Technology Officer, Grazia Vittadini. “Through our commitment, we are helping to sustainably improve climate models and weather forecasts. Scientifically-sound findings are the basis for targeted measures on the path for more sustainable aviation.”

GE/NASA contrail research flights

In the US, GE Aerospace and NASA have built upon a 50-year collaboration by performing two research flights for their Contrail Optical Depth Experiment (CODEX) in which three-dimensional imaging was generated of contrails created by GE’s Boeing 747-400 Flying Test Bed aircraft.

The 747 was trailed by a G-111 aircraft from NASA’s Langley Research Centre in Virginia, which deployed Light Detection and Ranging (LiDAR) technology to scan the wake of the larger jet, enabling researchers to use new imaging to better understand how contrails form and behave.

During the flight tests, 3D images were generated of contrails from all four CF6 engines on the 747. GE Aerospace was also able to isolate the contrails from a single engine on the test jet.     

The flights expanded the company’s capabilities ahead of flight tests it is planning during this decade to assess the performance of new commercial aircraft engine technologies, including Open Fan, advanced combustion designs and other propulsion systems.  

“Understanding how contrails act in flight with the latest detection technology is how we move innovation forward,” said Arjan Hegeman, GE Aerospace GM of Future Flight Technology. “These tests will provide critical insight to advance next generation aircraft engine technologies for a step change in efficiency and emissions.”

Dr Rich Wahls, manager of NASA’s Sustainable Flight National Partnership, welcomed participation “on this first-of-its-kind flight experiment” in helping to reduce the impact of contrails.

“NASA is advancing the scientific understanding of contrails to improve our confidence in future operational contrail management decisions that consider overall climate impact and economic trades,” he said.

NASA, German Aerospace Centre (DLR) and contrail forecasting and management company SATAVIA, are also working together on atmospheric forecasting to identify the best conditions for studying the formation of contrails. SATAVIA was recently acquired by Aerospace Carbon Solutions, a division of GE Aerospace.

In this collaboration, DLR will help to identify the altitude and dimensions of contrail-forming regions, so that flight tests can be conducted using the LiDAR technology to improve contrail prediction, while SATAVIA will use the flight test results to validate and improve its numerical weather prediction capability, used to forecast contrail formation conditions.

At this year’s Farnborough Airshow, the chief technology officers of GE Aerospace, Boeing, Airbus, Dassault, Rolls-Royce, RTX and Safran called for government support to expand research that enhances scientific understanding of aviation non-CO2 effects such as contrails, nitrogen oxides, sulphur, aerosols and soot.

Top photo: The first IAGOS system has been in use on a Lufthansa Airbus A340-300 since 2011

Bottom photo: GE Aerospace’s 747 Flying Test Bed

Tony Harrington

Correspondent

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A global coalition of around 50 scientists specialising in climate and aviation-linked disciplines has signed an open letter warning of the warming impacts of aircraft contrails and calling on global decision-makers to urgently address the problem. Among the signatories is Jean-Pascal van Ypersele, a Belgian climatologist and former vice chair of the UN’s Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). Contrails are the most significant of aviation’s non-CO2 effects, said the scientists in their letter. The communiqué was published by Brussels-based climate advocacy group Transport & Environment (T&E), which has also just released a report recommending deviating flight paths that it claims would halve the number of warming contrails by 2040, with a climate benefit substantially larger than the impact of the CO2 emissions caused by the extra fuel burn.

Contrails are formed when vapour and particles of soot emitted from aircraft engines freeze into ice crystals in certain conditions and regions to create clouds that can trap heat.

“Global aviation traffic doubled between 2005 and 2019, and its CO2 emissions grew by 40%,” said the scientists in their letter, “and that just covers part of the problem. Planes cause much more warming than just through their CO2 emissions. Non-CO2 effects of aviation, such as nitrogen oxides and contrails, warm the planet at least as much as aviation’s CO2.

“Most contrails dissolve within a few minutes, but in certain conditions they can persist in the atmosphere, spread out and become artificial cirrus clouds with a net warming effect. The climate impact of these effects has been known for more than 25 years.”

But despite this knowledge, said the scientists, little has been done to address the problem.

“We, aviation and climate scientists, call upon global decision-makers to implement solutions to tackle non-CO2 effects of aviation on top of decarbonisation efforts,” they said.

“This starts by better awareness-raising of the general public. Airline passengers should be informed of the full climate impact of flying when booking a flight and companies performing business flights should include non-CO2 in their corporate reporting.”

As well, said the scientists, large-scale tests should be performed of contrail avoidance measures, supported by research and backed by government policies and monitoring designed to reduce warming contrails and other non-CO2 impacts of aircraft.

“This is a ‘no regrets’ approach that will help to slow climate change by a significant margin,” the scientists said. “Delaying action would be a critical error.”

Their letter closely follows the release of a Transport & Environment report, which states that by “tweaking the flight plans of only a few flights”, contrail-induced warming could be halved by 2040.  

The report says the net warming effect of aircraft contrails was “at least as important” as the damage caused by CO2 emissions from aircraft and that just 3% of flights produce 80% of contrail warming. It argues contrail reductions could be achieved simply by changing flight plans slightly to avoid conditions known to cause the phenomenon.

Such a strategy would marginally increase fuel consumption, said T&E, but would still deliver greater environmental benefits by preventing contrail formation.

“Changing flight paths to avoid contrails will only happen on a very small number of flights, and only for a small part of the journey,” says the report, adding that the climate benefits of from avoiding the most warming contrails would exceed the CO2 penalty of rerouting the plane by a factor between 15 and 40 times.

“The extra fuel burnt to avoid contrails would be less than 0.5% on the whole fleet over a year. And on those few flights where rerouting will happen, 80% of the contrail warming of the flight can be avoided with an extra fuel burn of 5% or less.”

The study conservatively estimates that slightly changing the flight path of a Paris – New York flight to avoid contrail formation would cost less than €4 per ticket, covering extra fuel used for the diversion and the use of associated technologies including humidity sensors and satellites.

Commenting on the report, T&E’s aviation technical manager, Carlos Lopez de la Osa, said some in aviation “overstate the scientific uncertainty of warming contrails – but the climate benefits of contrail avoidance are huge, and solutions are improving by the day.

“The aviation industry is being offered a simple and cheap way to reduce its climate impact. By identifying the very few flights that cause warming contrails and then tweaking their flight paths, we can have an immediate effect on contrails warming. So let’s no longer discuss whether we have to do it, but how to do it.”

Photo (T&E): Contrails, short for condensation trails, are created by aircraft flying through cold and humid areas of the atmosphere

Tony Harrington

Correspondent

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A new study by UK-based consultancy CFP Energy has identified a significant divergence of strategies to decarbonise aviation in the UK, France and Germany, and serious impediments to the industry’s ability to reach its net zero emissions targets. The report, ‘Decarbonising the Future: Navigating ETS Reforms and Net Zero Solutions’, was based on surveys of chief financial officers and risk management professionals of more than 500 organisations in high-emission industries including aviation, shipping, construction, data centres and manufacturing. The study reflected strong uptake of measures including biofuels, green certificates and voluntary carbon credits. But of the aviation operators surveyed in the UK and Europe, 95% of respondents expect a rise in carbon allowance demand, while funding limitations and insufficient access to new technologies are highlighted as key barriers to progress.

“Between funding issues, regulations, knowledge gaps and a lack of technology, large-scale organisations face a mountain of issues to overcome,” said CFP Energy’s COO, Catherine Newman, commenting on the report.     

The survey, commissioned by CFP and conducted by London-based research group 3Gem before the UN’s recent COP29 climate summit in Baku, Azerbaijan, focused on the urgent push to reduce carbon emissions, particularly in Europe, where intensified regulations and steep decarbonisation targets have been announced. In the aviation sector, respondents included airlines, airport operators and associated businesses.  

Central to the survey was the European Union’s ‘Fit for 55’ reform programme, developed to reduce carbon emissions by enacting measures including the EU Emissions Trading System, which since 2012 has imposed ever-increasing limits on emissions from intra-Europe flights.

After Brexit, the UK introduced its own ETS, while France and Germany adopted customised approaches to reach net zero carbon emissions, complicating compliance for airlines operating in these markets.

A key concern for carriers that responded to the survey is the rapid reduction in free carbon allowances, which are due to be phased out in 2026, and both the scarcity and cost of future concessions. Based on 2010 benchmarks, airlines have previously received up to 82% of their carbon allowances for free. But this year they have been reduced by 25%, and next year will come down by 50% before they are abolished and replaced with a full auction system.

As well, the EU is considering expanding its ETS obligations by 2027 to also include non-CO2 emissions such as nitrous oxides and soot, both key elements of warming contrails produced by aircraft in specific conditions and coming under increasing global scrutiny.

The study found 95% of airline respondents in the UK and Europe expected a rise in demand for carbon allowances, but also identified significant barriers to their decarbonisation ambitions, with 61% highlighting funding limitations and 60% the insufficient availability of new technologies to help them reduce their carbon emissions.

As well, 54% of respondents identified knowledge gaps as impediments to reducing emissions, and 53% cited regulatory complexities.

But aviation operators still continued to pursue other decarbonisation technologies and products, the most popular being biofuels (53%) and voluntary carbon markets (51%), followed at 48% by power purchase agreements and green certificates (44%). The industry also indicated significant interest in alternative fuel sources, particularly hydrogen.      

Most respondents to the survey (90%) said they had produced a plan to transition their businesses to net zero operations, through there were marked differences between the UK, Germany and France among those who said they were not meeting targets.

Of total respondents, 13% of those with transition plans were falling short of their targets. In France, 17% said they were underachieving, while in Germany 7% were behind.

“What is most interesting,” said Newman, “are the barriers that industry stakeholders attribute to holding their respective sectors back.

“We hope this report provides business leaders with actionable solutions to tackle decarbonisation amidst volatile conditions. The solutions to decarbonise exist, we simply need to provide better access to them.”

Tim Atkinson, CFP Energy’s Director of Sales and Structuring, said it was vital that businesses focused on changes needed to comply with evolving environmental regulations.  

“It’s encouraging to see many of the survey participants are planning for rises in future ETS carbon prices and taking advantage of the flexibility carbon markets offer to manage rising compliance costs whilst technology challenges are addressed,” he said.

“It has never been more important for businesses to ensure they are prepared for the paradigm shift of tougher targets and higher carbon prices that is set to impact both the UK and EU emissions trading schemes over the next five to 10 years.”

Tony Harrington

Correspondent

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Like other countries, China’s civil aviation industry faces difficulties in fundamentally changing its aviation energy mix, which is primarily reliant on fossil jet fuel in the short term, and the large-scale application of deep decarbonisation technologies that balance availability and affordability. In the long term, as the most populous developing country, China has a vast potential demand for civil aviation transport, making the energy transition very challenging. However, a Five-Year Plan is underway for the green development of the industry. Against this backdrop is an insistence by China that the transition must be fair and equitable to developing countries, particularly regarding ICAO’s CORSIA scheme. Dr David Ma, an expert in Chinese civil aviation climate policy, analyses China’s current position.

As global climate issues intensify, countries around the world are formulating their own net-zero roadmaps in accordance with their national conditions. In 2020, China officially announced its climate goals of “striving to peak carbon dioxide emissions by 2030 and to achieve carbon neutrality by 2060”, incorporating climate change response as a national strategy.

In the following years, China issued guidelines and action plans at the national level, while key industries and sectors introduced implementation plans. The civil aviation industry, being a high-energy-consuming and high-emission sector, is one of the key areas that needs focused attention and improvement to achieve China’s “carbon peaking and carbon neutrality” strategic goals.

To address this, the Civil Aviation Administration of China (CAAC) released the ‘14th Five-Year Plan for Green Development of Civil Aviation’ in 2022, proposing the vision for green development by 2035, including a well-established green low-carbon circular development system, achieving carbon-neutral growth in air transport, and making green civil aviation a distinguished profile in the industry’s international exchanges, positioning China as an important leader in global civil aviation sustainable development.

Meanwhile, at the 41st Assembly Session of International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO) held in 2022, the Chinese delegation expressed differing positions on the climate change resolution and the Carbon Offsetting and Reduction Scheme for International Aviation (CORSIA) resolution of agenda item 18. They reserved their stance on the global international aviation 2020 carbon-neutral growth target, the 2050 net-zero carbon target for global international aviation, and the emission reduction mechanisms formed based on these targets, specifically on Articles 6, 7, 9, 17 of the climate change resolution, and the entire text of resolution 18/1 on CORSIA.

The delegation submitted a written reservation to the Secretariat after the meeting, stating they would decide whether and when to withdraw the reservation based on the progress of feasibility analysis of the above targets, the resolution of CORSIA fairness issues and the development of assistance mechanisms for developing countries.

Why does the stance of China’s civil aviation industry on climate change (mainly CORSIA) differ domestically and internationally?

International aviation emissions reduction is an integral part of global climate governance and should adhere to the fundamental principles of global climate governance, particularly the principles of common but differentiated responsibilities, equity and respective capabilities established by the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) and its Paris Agreement. It should align with the consensus on global climate governance models, allowing countries to independently choose mid-to-long-term goals and implementation pathways best suited to their national conditions.

The historical cumulative emissions of developed countries over nearly 200 years of uncontrolled industrialisation are the primary cause of current climate change. Developed countries have international obligations under the UNFCCC to significantly reduce greenhouse gas emissions ahead of developing and emerging market countries and to provide sufficient financial, technical and capacity-building assistance to developing countries.

China’s CORSIA position

In its working paper A41-WP/468 submitted to ICAO’s 41st Assembly, China explained its proposal to implement CORSIA through Nationally Determined Plans to Implement the CORSIA (NDPIC) and to establish a regular review method for CORSIA (see Figure 1 below). The document argues that to avoid any market distortions caused by CORSIA and to enhance the effectiveness of its implementation, a framework for a NPDIC should be established. This would allow each country to determine its own implementation rules and frameworks, subject to technical review by ICAO. Regarding regular reviews of CORSIA, the document proposes the establishment of a CORSIA Review Working Group, which would develop a set of evaluation metrics based on the guidelines for designing and implementing market-based measures (MBMs) provided in the appendix to resolution A40-18.

Figure 1: Framework of the Nationally Determined Plans To Implement The CORSIA (NDPIC) proposed by China

In working paper A41-WP/469, China elaborated on its stance and suggestions regarding the targets and measures for international aviation carbon emissions reduction. The document contends that the current CORSIA implementation plan and standards, which are based on ICAO’s goal of carbon-neutral growth starting from 2020 (CNG2020), do not conform to international law and the basic principles of global climate governance. It argues that if developed countries do not fulfil their international obligations under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) through ICAO, developing countries will be deprived of fair development opportunities. The specific points are as follows:

In contrast to its stance at ICAO, China is cautiously advancing the implementation of market mechanisms domestically. The Civil Aviation Administration of China (CAAC) proposed in its Five-Year Plan in 2022 to “coordinate the construction of domestic and international carbon markets, and promote the establishment of a market-based carbon reduction mechanism for aviation activities.”

China actively promoting SAF

In contrast to CORSIA, China actively promotes SAF. In working paper A41-WP/468, China proposed that “countries refer to relevant ICAO standards or guidelines to determine sustainable aviation fuels and/or low-carbon aviation fuels recognised by their governments.” The Five-Year Plan aims to “promote breakthroughs in the commercial application of sustainable aviation fuels, striving to achieve an annual consumption of more than 20,000 tonnes of sustainable aviation fuels by 2025,” and targets a cumulative SAF consumption of 50,000 tonnes from 2020 to 2025.

It defines SAF as “aviation fuels that meet aviation airworthiness standards and sustainability evaluation standards for aviation fuels.” At the project level, it proposes to accelerate the establishment of a sustainable aviation fuel certification system and fully promote the construction of an airworthiness certification system for sustainable aviation fuels. It aims to conduct regular application demonstrations of sustainable aviation fuels, pilot blended supply models of sustainable aviation fuels at airports with an annual passenger throughput of more than 5 million in regions such as Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei, Yangtze River Delta, Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area, Chengdu, Chongqing and Hainan, and support related airports in accelerating the construction of supporting infrastructure.

The latest news is that the CAAC has identified SAF, the carbon market and efficiency improvements as the three main directions for the green transition of civil aviation in the next five years (2025-2030).

The inconsistency between China’s domestic actions and international commitments on civil aviation’s climate change stance can be found in the Five-Year Plan. It pledges to: “Adhere to independent emission reduction actions, undertake emission reduction responsibilities commensurate with China’s national conditions, the development stage of civil aviation and its capabilities. Fully participate in the global governance process for sustainable development of international civil aviation, uphold the correct view of justice and interests, follow the principles of equity, common but differentiated responsibilities and respective capabilities, strengthen the application of international law, advocate for the establishment of a new international civil aviation emission reduction order with wide participation, independent contributions, mutual learning and benefit sharing, propose more Chinese solutions, promote a balance of obligations and rights, and demonstrate China’s image as a responsible major country.”

From this, several key points can be summarised:

■ Independent emission reductions and independent contributions.
■ The principle of equity and the extension to the principle of common but differentiated responsibilities and respective capabilities.
■ The ‘Chinese solution’.

Accelerating the energy transition

To achieve the goals of “carbon peaking and carbon neutrality”, China’s energy industry is steadfastly accelerating the energy transition, shifting the primary energy source from fossil fuels to non-fossil fuels. As a hard-to-abate sector, the civil aviation industry must make significant adjustments based on China’s macro situation to overcome resource and environmental constraints.

According to roadmaps by IATA, carbon emissions need to be reduced by 1.8 billion tonnes by 2050, with 65% of the emissions reduced through SAF, 13% through new engine propulsion technologies (such as hydrogen), 3% through efficiency improvements and the remainder through carbon capture and storage (11%) and offsets (8%). These measures are reflected in the Five-Year Plan.

Chinese civil aviation has positioned the energy transition, led by SAF, as a crucial node in fostering “new quality productivity” in the latest round of technological and industrial transformation, to achieve a new phase of high-quality development in civil aviation. This also demonstrates the significant role of Chinese civil aviation in building a community with a shared future for mankind. Therefore, China is very proactive and efficient in promoting SAF and other emission reduction measures, recognising that the issue is no longer whether to do it, but how to do it and how to do it well.

In terms of specific actions, due to the differences in national conditions and development stages compared to developed countries in advanced countries and the significant growth needed in the civil aviation transport market in the future, along with the two binding carbon targets of 2030 and 2060 set by the state, China has chosen more pragmatic independent actions, including emission reduction targets and measures. Chinese civil aviation’s vision is that every country should actively contribute to combating climate change but should make independent decisions based on their circumstances, rather than a one-size-fits-all approach.

Principle of equity

In its submitted position papers, China does not oppose the market mechanism of CORSIA, as it has already initiated a national emissions trading system, with civil aviation soon to be included. What Chinese civil aviation disputes is the lack of the principle of equity in CORSIA’s resolution and mechanism design. They often use this metaphor: requiring a growing teenager to diet along with an overweight adult is unfair.

The principle of ‘equity’ emphasises that the responsibilities and measures for emission reductions should consider the historical emissions, economic development levels and emission reduction capabilities of different countries. Developed countries that have competed industrialisation, having accumulated significant historical emissions during their industrialisation process, should bear greater emission reduction responsibilities and provide more financial and technological support. Meanwhile, developing countries need to gradually increase their emission reduction efforts based on their capabilities, promoting sustainable development.

Only on the basis of equity can countries achieve common but differentiated responsibilities and jointly address the severe challenge of global warming. An equitable emission reduction scheme not only promotes international cooperation but also ensures the well-being and environmental sustainability of people worldwide. This climate change principle contrasts with the ‘non-discrimination’ principle of commercial operations in international aviation. However, many developing countries, represented by China, unanimously demand that ICAO reflects the principle of equity in its emission reduction mechanisms.

Unfortunately, only textual confirmation is provided, and it is not reflected in the CORSIA mechanism design. If the climate change principle and aviation operation principle cannot be balanced within the ICAO framework, discrepancies in any emission reduction negotiations and discussions will persist.

China’s anticipated stance at ICAO’s next Assembly

At the ICAO 42nd Assembly in September 2025, China is expected to maintain its established stance, reiterating concerns regarding CORSIA, the implementation paths and standards associated with it, and the 2050 global international aviation carbon-neutrality goal. China believes these targets and pathways are inherently unfair and disadvantageous to developing countries.

Furthermore, because there is currently no intersection between ICAO’s work path and China’s, and with China effectively and confidently taking independent climate actions and involving its national ETS, China will persist with its established stance. The Chinese civil aviation sector will align with the national targets of “achieving carbon peaking by 2030 and carbon neutrality by 2060”, and will not prematurely declare that the aviation industry will achieve carbon neutrality ahead of schedule. Consequently, China will, to a large extent, not join CORSIA’s mandatory implementation phase in 2027.

The ‘Chinese solution’

Chinese civil aviation has made significant progress in responding to climate change and promoting sustainable development. Through the promotion of advanced fuel technologies, optimised route designs and enhanced air traffic management efficiency, China has significantly reduced carbon emissions. Additionally, Chinese civil aviation actively participates in international emission reduction initiatives, sharing experiences with global aviation organisations and counterparts to jointly address global climate challenges. With this series of emission reduction plans, Chinese civil aviation not only demonstrates a firm commitment to reducing carbon dioxide emissions but also strives to achieve significant results through practical actions. These efforts have enabled Chinese civil aviation to confidently push the ‘Chinese solution’, contributing wisdom and strength to the sustainable development of the global aviation industry.

China’s confidence in promoting the ‘Chinese solution’ includes not only technological innovation and operational efficiency improvement but also policy support and international cooperation. Through solid emission reduction actions and comprehensive emission reduction plans, China aims to establish a good international image and demonstrate its responsibility as a major country.

The introduction of the ‘Chinese solution’ will provide valuable experience and a model for the green transition of the global aviation industry, contributing to achieving global carbon neutrality targets. The solution will not only consider ICAO’s resolutions but also reflect its domestic climate change initiative actions, especially as the civil aviation industry is about to be included in the national ETS, which will significantly advance the deployment of CORSIA and SAF, a prospect worth looking forward to.

Photo (H. Goussé, Airbus): Air China A350-900

About the author

David Ma

Dr Xiangshan (David) Ma, who has long worked in China’s civil aviation industry, has been involved in tackling climate change and has experienced the historical transition of China’s civil aviation from energy conservation and emission reduction to carbon neutrality. After leaving the civil aviation industry, he has worked with the Global CCS Institute, Energy Foundation China, GIZ, and FutureCoal (formerly World Coal Association) on CCU/S and energy transition. Currently, he serves as an independent consultant on energy transition and climate change. He can be contacted at maxiangshan.2010@tsinghua.org.cn.

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Views expressed in Commentary op-ed articles do not necessarily represent those of GreenAir.

Watershed, an international platform which helps some of the world’s biggest corporations to measure, report and reduce their carbon emissions, has facilitated the purchase of sustainable aviation fuel certificates (SAFc) by four major companies to help them compensate for emissions created by their corporate air travel. The deals were arranged through the Sustainable Aviation Buyers Alliance (SABA), for BlackRock, a global investment, advisory and risk management group, and financial and corporate technology companies Ripple, Samsara and Block. The SAF associated with their certificates will be allocated to US carrier Alaska Airlines, a founding member of SABA, while the four companies will be able to claim environmental attributes of the fuel as contributions to their own emission reduction targets.

Watershed measures total carbon emissions across all areas of corporate operations, then consolidates data to provide a detailed account of emissions for reports to shareholders, regulators and other stakeholders.

It also identifies and helps deliver remedial actions, as it has in this case through its partnership with SABA, for which it aggregates corporate demand for SAFc, leading to procurement and delivery of authenticated, high-integrity supplies to airlines.

The four purchases it has just announced, while not specifically quantified, are linked to a collection of deals announced by SABA earlier this year which are expected to attract SAFc commitments valued at $200 million, equating to approximately 50 million gallons of the fuel.

The SAF will be sourced from four fuel suppliers over five years and, fully deployed, is expected to reduce CO2 emissions from aircraft by approximately 500,000 tons.

Claire Kiely, Head of Watershed Marketplace Carbon Supply, said collective purchasing deals such as the four just announced represent “a compelling demand signal” to help increase supplies of SAF.

“Watershed consolidates our customers’ demand for high-impact, low-carbon technology like sustainable aviation fuel, then works with SAF suppliers, airlines and experts through SABA to meet that demand and grow an essential new sector,” she said.

“By participating in this historic investment, Watershed customers are providing a powerful demand signal for SAF and affirming the role SAFc will play in corporate emissions reduction initiatives.”

Alaska Airlines, the end user in the Watershed SAFc deal, is a leading proponent of multiple decarbonisation technologies, including SAF, hydrogen-electric propulsion and all-new aircraft designs.

The carrier’s scale has just increased with approval of its acquisition of Hawaiian Airlines, which, while it will continue to operate as a separate brand, potentially offers further opportunities to broaden deployment of SAF under the group umbrella, in addition to its own plans for the fuels.

“Alaska Airlines is all-in on advancing the market for sustainable aviation fuels, a critical element in the path to decarbonise aviation,” said Diana Birkett Rakow, the company’s SVP Public Affairs and Sustainability.  

“We are one of the founding members of SABA’s Aviators group because we know that we will only reach our destination if we’re tackling this challenge from all angles – business, policy, financing and more. Investing in SAF alongside partners like Watershed, BlackRock, Ripple, Samsara and Block helps us scale up use.”

BlackRock has highlighted “a massive reallocation of capital” as the low-carbon economy continues to evolve globally with new technologies, changing consumer and investor preferences, and shifts in government policies.

Ripple’s VP Social Impact and Sustainability, Ken Weber, said joining the corporate push to boost SAF use was also an important step for his company in reaching its target of net zero carbon by 2030.

“Through collaboration with Watershed and SABA we are not only supporting the growth of SAF but also empowering other companies to take similar meaningful steps in reducing their emissions footprint,” he said.

Kim Carnahan, Head of SABA’s secretariat and CEO of the Center for Green Market Activation, said aggregator partners such as Watershed were critical in helping accelerate the growth of green commodity markets.

“By consolidating demand among its customers, Watershed is helping SABA send a larger demand signal to the SAF market while enabling us to welcome a new set of leading corporations,” she said.

SABA was founded by the Environmental Defense Fund and Rocky Mountain Institute and is supported by the Center for Green Market Activation. Among SABA’s founding members are corporations including Bank of America, Boeing, Boston Consulting Group, Deloitte, JP Morgan Chase, McKinsey & Co, Microsoft, Meta, Netflix and Salesforce.

Photo: Alaska Airlines

Tony Harrington

Correspondent

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Investment in scaling up global production of renewable fuels in the pursuit of the aviation industry’s Net Zero emissions target was at the forefront of discussions at this year’s Aviation Carbon conference in London. With Europe introducing from January sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) blending mandates, as well as monitoring requirements on aircraft non-CO2 impacts, industry concerns were raised over the complexity and cost of new regulations facing airlines. IATA’s SVP Sustainability and Chief Economist, Marie Owens Thomsen, criticised fossil fuel subsidies and the lack of investment by oil majors in the energy transition. Outcomes from the recent COP29, which have positive implications for ICAO’s CORSIA carbon scheme, and raising finance for SAF development, were central to a speech by the UN agency’s Secretary General, Juan Carlos Salazar.

As noted by Abdul Wahab Teffaha, Secretary General of the Arab Air Carriers Association during Aviation Carbon’s opening panel, one of the bugbears of airline associations is the prospect of a proliferation of regional mandates and schemes on the use of SAF by airlines. For example, he pointed to the EU’s and the UK’s SAF blending mandates that come into force from January 2025. The resulting “patchwork” would lead to an increase in costs and complexity for airlines, argued Teffaha.

Speaking to GreenAir after his speech, Salazar said that ICAO respects the sovereignty of any region if they chose to create their own schemes and regulations but stressed that the clear mandate given to ICAO was to address aviation’s carbon emissions at a global level and this resulted in CORSIA. “It is the only way for the international community to address CO2 emissions,” he noted.

For Salazar, the work being done by ICAO on aviation emissions is “a very solid basis to achieve our goal of net zero emissions by 2050…it is the way forward,” he said. “ICAO is steadily implementing CORSIA, and we are now moving from the voluntary to the mandatory phase. We are confident that the international community will continue its steady work on CORSIA and emission reduction policies as we create a very solid framework for the further advancement of the LTAG.”

As Salazar reminded delegates: “The landmark adoption of a long-term global aspirational goal (LTAG) of net-zero carbon emissions by 2050 during the 41st Session of the ICAO Assembly in 2022 settled an ambitious target for our industry. This goal recognises the urgent need to address climate change while acknowledging the vital role of aviation in global development.”

In addition, he added: “The success of the Third ICAO Conference on Aviation and Alternative Fuels held last year in Dubai, the CAAF/3, with its adoption of a Global Framework for SAF, Lower Carbon Aviation Fuels (LCAF),and Cleaner Energies, marked another significant step forward, setting out four key building blocks: Policy and planning; Regulatory framework; Implementation support; and Financing.

“The global target to achieve a 5% CO2 emissions reduction by 2030 through the use of SAF, LCAF and cleaner energies is also an ambitious, but achievable target with concerted effort. And the recently approved roadmap by the ICAO Council will guide our implementation activities, starting with the allocation of financial and human resources,” noted Salazar.

Obtaining the huge sums needed to develop a SAF industry was a constant theme during Aviation Carbon. According to Salazar: “Financing will be paramount for achieving our collective goals for a net zero future, this was the central focus of the discussions at COP29 last week.” This year’s UN climate change conference, COP29, took place the week prior to Aviation Carbon in Baku, Azerbaijan.

“The clean energy transition will require substantial financing. I am pleased to share that the ICAO Finvest Hub is well under development and our ambition is that it will be a crucial platform to facilitate investment partnerships, particularly for countries and regions that do not yet have SAF production capabilities,” explained Salazar.

“Our steady progress with the Finvest Hub is evidenced by our recent agreement with the International Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA). This co-operation, signed at the G20 Energy Ministerial meetings in Brazil last month, will significantly boost financing opportunities for sustainable aviation fuels and other cleaner aviation energy projects.

“The ICAO Finvest Hub will connect aviation decarbonisation projects with potential public and private investors, and beyond this matchmaking function, its value will lie in the collaboration between ICAO and financial institutions to fund projects,” said Salazar.

“The Finvest Hub is also an integral part of ICAO’s capacity-building and implementation support activities. More than 200 States and organisations are now part of ICAO’s Assistance, Capacity Building, and Training programme for SAF, known as ACT-SAF. This initiative provides crucial support for SAF development and deployment, offering training, feasibility studies, business implementation reports, support for SAF certification and policy development, and implementation of specific SAF projects for States,” Salazar told delegates.

“As we speak, more than 20 SAF feasibility studies and business implementation reports are under development. ICAO has a pivotal role in providing a harmonised, independent and robust regulatory framework for the environmental certification of cleaner aviation energies.

“I am pleased to inform you that currently 48 feedstocks are recognised under CORSIA. As States prepare their national policies for the aviation clean energy transition, adhering to this framework will ensure a level playing field for considering the environmental benefits of such fuels.

“Additionally, CORSIA continues as a crucial element in our basket of measures to reduce aviation’s carbon footprint.,” said Salazar. “Since 2019, all 193 ICAO member states are implementing the scheme’s monitoring, reporting and verification system. In addition, I’m delighted to acknowledge that 129 member states have confirmed their voluntary participation in the scheme subject to offsetting requirements in 2025, and we want more states to participate in future years.

“At its last session, the ICAO Council approved four additional programmes as eligible for CORSIA, ensuring that sufficient emissions units could be available for use in the scheme’s first phase,” said Salazar. The buying and selling of eligible emissions units through the carbon market is a crucial part of the functioning of CORSIA, but their availability has been limited up until now.

On this topic Salazar added: “The recent adoption of Article 6 of the Paris agreement at COP29 provides additional clarity in the way CORSIA eligible units can be authorised and cancelled, ensuring no double counting and stability for the voluntary carbon markets.”

Little control over fuel costs

IATA’s Marie Owens Thomsen, offering the airline perspective at Aviation Carbon, mused that as “complete price-takers” to the fuel suppliers, airlines have little control over what represents some 30% of their total costs. “The fantasy I harbour is that airlines can progressively take control over our own destiny and in-source more of their fuel supply,” she said. Her point was partly intellectual, but investing in jet fuel production is something various carriers are believed to be interested in.

She also noted that because aviation only takes 8% of global refined fossil fuel capacity, “the oil companies don’t need us for their profit optimisation.”

The health of the global economy, despite geo-political turmoil in the Middle East and war in Ukraine, is “strikingly stable”. With growth of 3.2% over the past two years and similar forecast into 2025 the economic backdrop is “super healthy”. This economic growth has seen oil prices dropping. “Anything under $80 a barrel is supportive of the global economy,” she noted.

However, Owens Thomsen questioned if today’s relatively low oil prices disincentivise investment in the move to renewable energy. They discourage the oil majors, she said, which have seen their stock prices rise on the back of lower oil prices, from investing in the energy transition. At the same time, lower oil prices have seen the stock prices of renewable energy industries “tank”.

“COP29 showed that the energy transition is a global problem. People need to understand that aviation is not a beast to be singled out,” she stated. “The real task is to switch from fossil fuels to renewable energies and we need to make money flow to the renewable energy industry. Imagine a world with ample energy supply that is cheap and renewable.”

One of the frequent questions at the two-day conference was whether the fossil fuel industry is investing enough in the energy transition. The answer was often it is not, mainly because it is not in its interests today to do so.

Owens Thomsen pointed to one of the impediments she believes is holding things back: the multi-billion-dollar subsidies given to the fossil fuel industry. “One of the discussions I struggle most to have is a conversation on fossil fuel subsidies,” she said.

This year’s Aviation Carbon 2024, co-organised by GreenAir, attracted a record 450 delegates from around 70 countries.

Photo (Shai Dolev): ICAO Secretary General Juan Carlos Salazar delivers the closing speech at Aviation Carbon 2024

Mark Pilling

Contributing Editor

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Two evolving Nordic e-SAF projects have been simultaneously boosted as the region ramps up a range of initiatives to progress lower-emission air transport. In Finland, clean technology group Liquid Sun has raised almost €4 million ($4.2m) in fresh seed funding to construct an e-SAF production testing facility. As Finland’s first pre-commercial e-SAF demonstrator plant, it will initially be housed in a 66-square-metre shipping container. Meanwhile in Denmark, renewable energy investor Copenhagen Infrastructure Partners (CIP), Copenhagen and Aalborg Airports and SAS Scandinavian Airlines have signed a collaboration agreement to support e-SAF production by Fjord PtX, an emerging renewable fuels business led by CIP, and to advocate for a Danish SAF sector. A new facility is due to open in late 2028.

Both projects will rely on renewable electricity produced in Nordic nations to help create green hydrogen, which, when combined with reprocessed carbon dioxide, will be used to create e-SAF and other non-fossil-based products.

Liquid Sun has been backed by investors including Voima Ventures, Failup Ventures and Business Finland as it pursues industrial-scale production using a new low-temperature electrolysis system. The company says its technology can be integrated into existing SAF infrastructures to enable price parity with fossil fuels, which, if verified, would address one of the biggest impediments to SAF uptake – its cost.   

As well as having access to abundant supplies of renewable electricity, says Liquid Sun, significant biogenic CO2 can be sourced from the Finnish forestry industry, providing the company with “an unexpected competitive advantage” not just in e-SAF production, but in making Finland a leader in the sector.

“Securing significant funding and oversubscribing the investment round in such a challenging market situation demonstrates that Liquid Sun has proven in a very short time to be a serious player in the e-fuel market,” said the company’s Chairman, Samuel Thesleff.

“Now the real work starts as we start scaling up the production of e-SAF to an industrial scale to help drive Finland towards its emission reduction goals and a cleaner future.”

“The Nordic region is uniquely positioned to take a leading role in e-SAF production,” added Pontus Stråhlman, a partner in Voima Ventures, the lead investor in the latest funding round.  

“There is an abundant renewable energy supply, supportive industry efforts and strong government backing. We firmly believe in Liquid Sun’s ability to open an entirely new market for more sustainable aviation.”

Co-investor Failup Ventures, a Finnish-US collaboration, describes itself as an investor “backing future leaders who create impact in society.”

“We’re excited to invest in Liquid Sun because they’re tackling one of the toughest problems out there – creating sustainable fuels for a cleaner future,” said Topias Soininen, General Partner, New York, for Failup Ventures. “This is exactly the type of work we love to support.”

In Denmark, renewable energy investor Copenhagen Infrastructure Partners (CIP), SAS and Copenhagen and Aalborg airports have signed a collaboration agreement to help accelerate local e-SAF production.

They are supporting Fjord PtX, a new Power-to-X project based in Aalborg, North Denmark, which will deploy electrolysis technology at the 200-400 MW level to produce e-fuels including synthetic SAF.

The project, backed by CIP, plans to annually recycle 330,000 tons of CO2, mostly sourced from the Nordværk waste-to-energy incineration plant, to produce up to 75,000 tons of SAF, equating to 250% of the fuel required for Denmark’s domestic flights.

Construction of the new e-SAF plant will commence next year on a 20-hectare site near the Port of Aalborg, with production expected to begin in late 2028.

The renewable energy for the plant will be wind and solar generated, while the CO2 to be captured and repurposed by Fjord PtX is estimated to equate to the emissions produced by 17,000 houses.

As well as producing e-SAF and e-naphtha, excess heat from the new plant will be redirected to provide emission-free heating to around 11,000 houses in the Aalborg municipality, adding further value to the project.

The four partners will also work to build public awareness and regulatory support to speed the transition to a low carbon economy and demonstrate how it is possible to develop a ‘sustainability valley’ in Denmark, and more broadly across Scandinavian countries.

“We have been developing our project for the past three years,” said CIP partner Søren Toftgaard. “We urge European and Danish governments and authorities to step up by providing clear and supportive schemes, which will be key for the ramp up of this new industry. With the right frameworks in place, this partnership and Fjord PtX can become a cornerstone of Denmark’s sustainable future.”

“Our partnership combines expertise to drive shared sustainability goals,” added SAS President and CEO Anko van der Werff. “This agreement sets a strong foundation for our project, underscoring our commitment to an urgent transition. The opportunities ahead are simply too valuable to miss.”

“To achieve net zero emissions by 2050, it is essential to begin producing new fuels as soon as possible,” said Christian Poulsen, CEO of Denmark’s largest airport company, Copenhagen Airports.

Aalborg Airport’s CEO, Niels Kjær Hemmingsen, commented: “Aalborg is the ideal location for Fjord PtX, as it provides the essential resources needed to drive sustainable development. For Aalborg Airport, this collaboration is a key step towards fulfilling our ambitious sustainability goals.”

Photo: The site of the Danish Fjord PtX project under development by Copenhagen Infrastructure Partners that aims to produce e-SAF